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 Post subject: Quality Starts
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2009 6:47 am 
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Somebody is stuck with QS as part of their scoring. Here is a short evaluation i had done:

Ray Flowers (RotoTimes) (http://www.rototimes.com/article/2009/2 ... Percentage) recently provided analysis of pitchers with high quality start percentages (QS%) for 2008. A quality start is defined as a minimum of six or more innings pitched and three or fewer runs allowed. QS% is defined as the number of quality starts divided by games started. Ray required a minimum of 162 innings pitched and cutoff his top list at 67%. The chart of his top 18 ranges from Johan Santana's 82% to John Lackey's 67%. It's a pretty enticing list. Ray concludes: “... it can be another one of the tools as you move toward building your team for the 2009 season, and that has to be worth something, doesn't it?” I added years 2006 and 2007 to get a better measure of the predictive quality of the stat. Bold designates players who repeated from the previous year.

2006 Player Name GS QS QS%
Roy Oswalt 33 25 76
Chris Capuano 34 25 74
Mike Mussina 32 23 72
Brett Myers 31 22 71
Johan Santana 34 24 71
John Lackey 33 23 70
Brandon Webb 33 23 70
Tom Glavine 32 22 69
John Smoltz 35 24 69
Kelvim Escobar 30 20 67
Carlos Zambrano 33 22 67
Bronson Arroyo 35 23 66
Jake Peavy 32 21 66

2007Player Name G QS QS%
Jake Peavy 34 28 82
Dan Haren 34 28 82
John Smoltz 32 26 81
Fausto Carmona 32 26 81
Brad Penny 33 26 79
Erik Bedard 28 21 75
CC Sabathia 34 25 74
Tim Hudson 34 25 74
John Lackey 33 24 73
Ian Snell 32 22 69
Matt Cain 32 22 69
A.J. Burnett 25 17 68
Roy Halladay 31 21 68
Gil Meche 34 23 68
Tom Glavine 34 23 68
Dustin McGowan 27 18 67
Josh Beckett 30 20 67
Mark Buehrle 30 20 67
Kelvim Escobar 30 20 67
Chien-Ming Wang 30 20 67
Adam Wainwright 32 21 66
Justin Verlander 32 21 66
Jon Garland 32 21 66

2008PLAYER GS QS QS%
Johan Santana 34 28 82
Tim Lincecum 34 26 79
Cliff Lee 31 23 74
Ricky Nolasco 34 23 72
Zack Greinke 32 23 72
CC Sabathia 35 25 71
Brandon Webb 34 24 71
Mark Buehrle 34 24 71
Joe Saunders 31 22 71
Roy Halladay 34 23 70
Cole Hamels 33 23 70
Dan Haren 33 23 70
JAKE PEAVY 27 19 70
Ervin Santana 32 22 69
Roy Oswalt 32 22 69
John Lannan 31 21 68
James Shields 33 22 67
JOHN LACKEY 24 16 67

Of the 13 who made the top list for 2006 only five repeated for 2007. Of the 24 who qualified for 2007 only six repeated in 2008. The two players in CAPS, Jake Peavy and John Lackey, were the only two to meet the criteria for all three years.

So, can we use the Quality Start Percentage to project performance for 2009? At best 38% (five of 13 from 2006) will repeat. I don't see a common thread to predict which those might be from year to year. With less than a 50% return, if we pick six from the 2008 list, they are just as likely to not repeat as they are likely to repeat. The best we can conclude is to follow Ray's advice. Couple this info with “other tools” to refine your picks. If you find a combo that works, please post.


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 Post subject: Re: Quality Starts
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 4:39 pm 
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yeah it's a nice compilation but looks pretty useless. there's really no pattern at all. save for a couple of players that are consistently in the higher percentages... - johan and lackey it would seem.

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