OK, here is a recap of our ROTO strategies discussion (
http://razzball.com/fantasy-starter-str ... /#comments). Thank you to everyone who contributed! Many of the posts were from those who were at/near the top of their leagues. It was fun to see the RESULTS of strategies in ACTION. I suspect these managers won’t be changing much. Why mess with success?! If you are continually knocking on the door, hopefully you will add that dinger that will get you over the top. If you have been floundering, you may want to change up and make your first TEN picks hitters.
Just copy and paste this recap to your strategy folder; highlight what you like; go back and review frequently. Impact on simply fred’s strategy (yours may be quite different) in italics. (H2H an animal I don’t understand. Wouldn’t be good for me to try to represent. H2Hers: step up to the plate, compile a list?)
Tony (hit the high points): “… (A) a solid draft, (B) a few key pick ups, and (C) avoiding the injury bug…”
A: A SOLID DRAFT:
Peter D: “…only hitters with your first 9 picks, essentially filling your line-up, then take SP/Closers with your next 6 picks (usually 3 and 3 of each), then draft high upside sleepers or undervalued guys like Ted Lilly who always seems to be available with your remaining picks…This strategy has worked like a charm as I have won my league using it for each of the past 2 years by a wide margin. The funny thing is that I’ve run away with both the ERA and WHIP categories each year, proving my theory that good starting pitching is available in rounds 10-15, you just have to recognize it and avoid AL East pitchers.”
The Champ Again (H2Her): “I have used this strategy for three years and have won every time. Feel like it’s a crime sharing this. I always use my first 10 picks on hitters. I try to get top hitters in all positions. Then i draft sleeper pitchers. One thing I have learned there is always a pluthra of quality pitching in FA.” (Stumbled across this from Rudy, see appendix below for the full article: “The final point here – which was covered in the Peavy vs. A-Rod comparison – is the fact that starting pitchers have more influence over a team’s total stats than a hitter. This is particularly true in ERA and WHIP where a top starter may represent around 20% of your innings. Compare this to a hitter who is lucky to represent 8-9% of your ABs.” hmmm…)
Matt Crapps: “For all the late pitching I guessed right (Liriano, Latos) I guessed plenty wrong, but they were replaceable with Padilla/Lilly/Myers types that were stream to eventual own.”
Steve: “…took Verlander, Hamels and Bills, and that their early season struggles put me in an ERA and WHIP hole I never really got out of. So will maybe be wary of drafting too much pitching too early next year.”)
Peter D: “Also, don’t get sucked in by the appeal of a pitcher with a lot of K’s, that is usually a recipe for WHIP disaster.” (Think I hear Grey: “Suck, baby, suck!”
Davi: “…I totally punted closers yet I finished near the top in saves thanks to the waiver wire.”
Microwave donut: “…but this league was very competitive in the vulture game.”
Simply fred: “Closers weren’t as valuable trade bait as I had hoped for.”
B: A FEW KEY PICK UPS:
Matt Crapps: “…get to know the trading dynamics and how other people behave.”
Paulie Allnuts: “…we had quite a competitive league, and perhaps a dozen times I was beaten to the punch by Razzballers who seemed to stay up all night and wait for Grey’s pick-up suggestions.”
DR. Easy: “It could also be that I lacked serious competition…”
(simply fred: I have to draft as if my competition will be SERIOUS. I live on the West Coast—prime Grey fox time. So, yes, I am ready at 12:15 a.m. PT for Grey’s daily posts. (How do you 3:00 a.m.-ers survive?) Even so, several times I had selected a player to add from the FA list, only to find that he had “already been added” in the few seconds it took to get to the “accept” button.)
Griff: “When June rolls around, most owners will start to trust the sample size, so I look to move any of my pitchers who have put up unexpectedly good numbers in exchange for a struggling hitter.” (It has been my experience, also, that one or two new young SP get off to a hot start but then cool off . I definitely will be looking to take advantage of trading off early season hot SP in 2011. Hopefully I’ll get him off the wire and turn him.)
Microwave donut: “Bench guys when they’re sucking and play them when they’re not.” (He won his league with only two productive hitters out of top nine draft picks!)
Steve: “Probably the main thing I learned this year (2nd year of roto), was to be more patient, especially with guys you grab off the wire. I know it’s a fine line between the guy who’s in a short slump and the one who’s outlived his usefulness, but frustration with guys cost me valuable production from the lilkes of Myers, Torres, CJ Wilson and Pedro Alvarez.”
(This a tough one for me. However, since I had the highest number of moves in all of RCL, I WILL be more patient in 2011. Will review for 2012. )
Dr. Easy: “…went SAGNOF crazy and it paid off. I finished first by a mile.”
Eddy: “Grey’s SAGNOF philosophy worked like a charm as I never had any trouble getting saves (led the league in them by a wide margin).”
(SAGNOF worked for/against me. I too had no trouble working the wire to get enough saves/steals. However, my ERA/WHIP got killed—not by solid MR (Adams, Madson, Kuo, etc.)—but by chasing “hopeful” closers (Heilman, Villanueva, League, Gutierrez, etc.). My poor performance in ERA/WHIP this year has me leaning-- three solid closers. Of the five hitting cats, I will be content if SB project a little low on draft day.)
Cain fan: “Stock up on SP when the inning (GS) limit is close and then exceed by 40-50 IP (8-9 GS). Big advantage for Ks and Ws usually.” (Tracked the managers who did this in RCL—all were very successful this year. A must again next year.)
C: AVOIDING THE INJURY BUG:
simply fred: “Don’t draft players who were injured the previous year. SCRATCH THE FOLLOWING (SEE UPDATED RISKY HITTERS PART3): Do draft players who had “off years” after a strong year but were otherwise healthy. They likely will return value even/better than depressed cost.”
Risky Hitters:
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5710APPENDIX (When in doubt, go to the ‘perts!):
http://razzball.com/performance-enhanci ... tegy-peds/http://razzball.com/the-bran-draft-strategy/http://razzball.com/are-fantasy-basebal ... er-raters/
