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 Post subject: First Rounders Moving Out of the Leadoff Spot
PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 5:35 am 
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Saw this morning that Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez both expect that they will start the season further down in the lineup.

Manuel said that he wants to get Luis Castillo going, so he's going to bat him leadoff and that Reyes would bat second or third. I don't think Reyes is strong enough with the bat, or a strong enough situational hitter to bat 2/3.

Hanley Ramirez self-reported that he expects to bat third in the lineup this year. I would think this is more likely to hurt Hanley's R/SB more than Reyes'.


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 Post subject: Re: First Rounders Moving Out of the Leadoff Spot
PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:29 am 
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Do you really think that the best leadoff man in the game is going to help his team more batting 3rd? This is like a Tony LaRussa move. Not sure what's going on in Manuel's head, and I'm sure there are many in the Mets organization who would help him change his mind.

Hanley on the other hand, makes plenty of sense. He's like an A-Rod, circa 1998 anyway, and he's probably best suited to bat 3rd in any lineup now that they have Maybin. I doubt this hurts his fantasy value much, don't ya think?

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 Post subject: Re: First Rounders Moving Out of the Leadoff Spot
PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 10:38 am 
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I agree with you. I think moving Hanley is smart and Reyes is terrible. Reyes is a leadoff guy. Hanley is a masher from an unlikely position. FLA would certainly benefit by having its best hitter in a run-producing spot rather than a table-setting spot. Batting Hanley leadoff is like leading off with Soriano -- I just don't understand it.

Is it just a guess that Maybin will leadoff for the Fish? If not, who would?

Maybin
Hanley
Hermida
Uggla
Cantu
McPherson
Ross
Baker
P

The problem is that I feel like they have Hanley and then five of the same high-power, low average guys. I can't find a two-hole hitter in the whole lineup, so I have issues dropping Hanley to third.


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 Post subject: Re: First Rounders Moving Out of the Leadoff Spot
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2009 12:24 pm 
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this is what RW has for their lineup:

1 CF Cameron Maybin
2 SS Hanley Ramirez
3 RF Jeremy Hermida
4 2B Dan Uggla
5 3B Jorge Cantu
6 LF Cody Ross
7 1B Gaby Sanchez
8 C John Baker


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 Post subject: Re: First Rounders Moving Out of the Leadoff Spot
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2009 4:01 pm 
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Personally I think moving Reyes down is very beneficial to his fantasy value. Also, I think the argument that he's "a leadoff guy" is akin to Dusty saying he doesn't want people "clogging up the bases". I'd rather have a 300 hitter batting with RISP than with the bases empty, plus he should see better pitches to hit from pitchers throwing out of the stretch. His ability to run to first is the same from leadoff or 4th.

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 Post subject: Re: First Rounders Moving Out of the Leadoff Spot
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2009 10:15 pm 
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downpat75 wrote:
His ability to run to first is the same from leadoff or 4th.


The ability wouldn't change, but the frequency almost certainly would.


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 Post subject: Re: First Rounders Moving Out of the Leadoff Spot
PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2009 1:56 pm 
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Freak wrote:
The ability wouldn't change, but the frequency almost certainly would.


Here's some numbers for thought:

Career Line (3485 PA):
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/BAbip
.287/.336/.436/.773/.310

RISP (728 PA):
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/BAbip
.293/.366/.475/.840/.311

Overall with Men On (1156 PA):
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/BAbip
.287/.354/.445/.800/.300

Bases empty (2329 PA):
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/BAbip
.287/.328/.432/.760/.314

Besides average his numbers are actually better with men on. He has actually hit 2nd in the lineup before with success, however I won't jump to conclusions b/c it is a small sample size.

Batting 2nd (190 PA):
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/BAbip
.322/.365/.429/.794/.364

Batting 1st (3193 PA):
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/BAbip
.286/.338/.440/.777/.309

From a fantasy perspective I think an increase in RBI production outweighs a decline in SB. Especially b/c SAGNOF!

EDIT: Spelling/wording

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