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 Post subject: @Wake Up and whoever, whateva
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 1:45 am 
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Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am
Posts: 317
First, for what it's worth, I numbered you among those beating the weekenders, not as a weekender yourself.

So, just to finish up, the guy who won the NFBC Main Event, the guy written up in The Gray Lady, that guy plays a very balanced approach. But the main event is draft. He finished second in the auction championship, losing to the guy who punted saves.

I realized two things by virtue of our thread today. One is that auctions lend themselves to trying to game the system because there is a turbulent distributions of talent from stars and scrubs to balanced to punters. Extreme strategies and numbers arbitrages can happen because any player can be had for a price. In a draft the talent distribution is smooth. Each player gets one player from each tier. It's tougher in that format to force the right players to execute a strategy that requires concentrations of certain kinds of categories.

The other thing I thought about today is that the RCL and the NFBC Main Event, both drafts, also have a much larger number of total teams as compared to the NFBC auction, which has "only" 135. So a strategy where you punt has a greater chance of success in the overall, because the penalty for a low finish is one category is not as punitive.


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 Post subject: Re: @Wake Up and whoever, whateva
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 9:44 am 
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Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm
Posts: 31799
Not sure if you saw this already, but interesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/sport ... wanted=all

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Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: @Wake Up and whoever, whateva
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 11:25 am 
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Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 2:19 pm
Posts: 1247
Ha, that Pig Farmer article is awesome.

_________________
13 Tm Mixed 11 Major 3 Minor Keeper "Midnight Crazies" (since 2003)
Batters
Pos Active Batters
C Montero, Miguel(C) ARI
1B Adams, Matt(1B) STL
2B Altuve, Jose(2B) HOU
3B Frazier, Todd(3B) CIN
SS Escobar, Alcides(SS) KC
MI Bogaerts, Xander(SS) BOS
CI Votto, Joey(1B) CIN
OF Arcia, Oswaldo(OF) MIN (DL)
OF Brantley, Michael(OF) CLE
OF Jennings, Desmond(OF) TB
OF Jones, Adam(OF) BAL
OF McCutchen, Andrew(OF) PIT
DH Espinosa, Danny(2B) WAS
DH Francisco, Juan(1B,3B) TOR

Pitchers
Pos Active Pitchers
P Bumgarner, Madison(P) SF
P Cueto, Johnny(P) CIN
P Gray, Sonny(P) OAK
P Kazmir, Scott(P) OAK
P Minor, Mike(P) ATL
P Peralta, Wily(P) MIL
P Price, David(P) TB
P Ray, Robbie(P) DET
P Reed, Addison(P) ARI
P Soriano, Rafael(P) WAS

Bench (C) Mesoraco, Devin(C) CIN
Bench (OF) Eaton, Adam(OF) CHW
Bench (DH) Alcantara, Arismendy(DH) CHC
Bench (DH) Franco, Maikel(DH) PHI
Bench (DH) Chisenhall, Lonnie CLE
Bench (DH) Johnson, Micah(DH) CHW
Bench (DH) Lindor, Francisco(DH) CLE
Bench (DH) Moustakas, Mike(3B) KC
Bench (DH) Liriano, Rymer SD
Bench (DH) Taveras, Oscar(DH) STL

Bench (P) Banuelos, Manny(P) NYY
Bench (P) Ray, Robbie DET
Bench (P) Pomeranz, Drew(P) OAK
Bench (P) Rondon, Hector(P) CHC
Bench (P) Stroman, Marcus TOR
Bench (P) Thornburg, Tyler(P) MIL
Bench (P) Vizcaino, Arodys(P) CHC


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 Post subject: Re: @Wake Up and whoever, whateva
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:24 am 
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Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2010 2:42 pm
Posts: 100
Grey wrote:
Not sure if you saw this already, but interesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/sport ... wanted=all


The Pig Farmer's main competitor picked AROD in the first round??? How did he even get close to 2nd place with genius moves like that? :)

New York Times wrote:
But the 2011 season still came down to the final game for Hinkelman, who battled K. J. Duke, a San Diego investment portfolio manager, for most of the season. Duke, who played in a different league, also had Kemp and Verlander, along with Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers, a contender for the Cy Young Award in the National League. But an off-year by his first-round pick, the Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez, held him back.


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 Post subject: Re: @Wake Up and whoever, whateva
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:54 am 
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New York Times wrote:
“You can’t do this twice in three years and have it be luck,” said Paul Charchian, the president of the trade association. “This is somebody who is extremely skilled at what he’s doing.”


This is a patently false statement. With 390 teams in both years, the odds of winning twice are 1 in 152,200. Your odds of flopping a royal flush in Hold'em, on the other hand, are 1 in 649,740.

I don't mean to say that the Pig Farmer won solely because of luck, but having Verlander, Kemp, and Granderson have bad 2010's, thus decreasing their value in the 2011 draft and allowing him to nab all three players, then having bounceback 2011's, seems like a bit of luck. Not to mention that there is no way he predicted Asdrubal Cabrera's 2011 with that 17th-round pick and the Farnsworth pick was simply a late-round flyer that panned out.

Picking up Allen Craig for an injured Holliday and having him do as well as he did and hit a home run in the last game of the season? Luck, luck, luck! :)

Not to say that the Pig Farmer isn't modest and humble about his accomplishments, but we should always be aware that fantasy baseball, just like poker, is a mysterious mix of skill and luck and we should never allow our heads to swell to hat-busting size.


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