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 Post subject: 1st Rd draft pick
PostPosted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 12:32 am 
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12-team, H2H, points-based league, 3 keepers. 15 starters (utility hitter, 4 SPs, 2 relievers). Draft is this Saturday.

I kept Cliff Lee, Gordon Beckham (eligible as a 2B) and Denard Span. I ended up w/ the 5th selection in the draft. The top four players available in the player pool should go in the top 4 picks: Braun, Utley, Fielder and Teixeira. I've brought my decision down to the following:

C.C. Sabathia (510 pts in 07 [1st amongst SPs], 582 in 08 [1st amongst SPs by a huge margin], 447 in 09 [8th SPs]. Lincecum, Halladay, Greinke, Verlander and King Felix were all kept. Sabathia is the last elite, top tier SP on my board. If he pitches anything like 2008 or even 2007, then it's a no brainer. Haren and Beckett are the next best available, but they haven't put up the type of numbers in their careers that Sabathia has. Then, the SP pool becomes more questionable w/ Johan, Wainwright, Gallardo and Nolasco following. I should mention that Lester, J. Johnson, Carpenter, Kershaw, Hanson and Billingsley were also kept.

Miguel Cabrera (502 pts in 07 [3rd amongst 1Bs], 478 in 08 [7th 1B], 509 in 09 [tied 4th 1B].
The only 1B kept was Pujols. In 2009, Adrian Gonzalez also had 509 pts while Ryan Howard had 508. Derrek Lee was next with 482 pts. In 2008, Morneau put up 530 pts. Based on your rankings, I should go with Cabrera with my pick by a long shot, but I'm having a difficult time justifying it. He just hasn't lived up to the hype. Did the episode last October really give him refocus? Or is that just window dressing?

(distant 3rd) Jimmy Rollins (660 pts in 07 [1st amongst SS by large margin], 477 in 08 [3rd SS], 491 in 09 [3rd SS]):
Hanley, Tulo and Jeter were kept. I bumped up Reyes to the equivalent of an early 3rd rder. Otherwise, the next SS on my board is ranked 80th overall and isn't much different than four others ranked behind him. It seems like Rollins is a safe bet to fall in the top 3-5 SS. The only reason I mention him is due to the lack of SS options.

Others I've considered (in order of most to least): D. Wright, Matt Holliday, A. Gonzalez, Sizemore, Kinsler.

I'm leaning towards Sabathia based on his 08 and 07 performances, assuming 09 is the floor. However, the perceived value of Miggy is so high that I may have to draft him even if he isn't much different than A. Gonzalez, Howard or Morneau.

_________________
12-teamer, H2H, points, 4 keepers.
Hitters: +1 single, +2 dbl, +3 trpl, +4 HR, +1 RBI, +1 run, +1 BB/HBP, -1 K, +2 SB, -1 CS
Pitchers: +1.5 IP, +1 K, -1 BB/HBP, +5 W, -3 L, +4 S, -2 BS, +3 CG, +10 shutout
Start one player at each position + utility, 4 SPs, 2 RPs. 8 reserves.

C: M. Montero
1B: Allen Craig
2B: Kinsler
3B: Longoria
SS: Segura
OF: Bautista, Holliday, Melky Cabrera
U: one of Pedroia, Blackmon, Dickerson or Carlos Beltran
SP: Wainwright, Iwakuma, Sonny Gray, Cobb
RP: Kimbrel, F. Rodney
Bench: Archer, Kennedy, Arrieta, McHugh


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 Post subject: Re: 1st Rd draft pick
PostPosted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 8:33 am 
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Posts: 31583
Deltron wrote:
12-team, H2H, points-based league, 3 keepers. 15 starters (utility hitter, 4 SPs, 2 relievers). Draft is this Saturday.

I kept Cliff Lee, Gordon Beckham (eligible as a 2B) and Denard Span. I ended up w/ the 5th selection in the draft. The top four players available in the player pool should go in the top 4 picks: Braun, Utley, Fielder and Teixeira. I've brought my decision down to the following:

C.C. Sabathia (510 pts in 07 [1st amongst SPs], 582 in 08 [1st amongst SPs by a huge margin], 447 in 09 [8th SPs]. Lincecum, Halladay, Greinke, Verlander and King Felix were all kept. Sabathia is the last elite, top tier SP on my board. If he pitches anything like 2008 or even 2007, then it's a no brainer. Haren and Beckett are the next best available, but they haven't put up the type of numbers in their careers that Sabathia has. Then, the SP pool becomes more questionable w/ Johan, Wainwright, Gallardo and Nolasco following. I should mention that Lester, J. Johnson, Carpenter, Kershaw, Hanson and Billingsley were also kept.

Miguel Cabrera (502 pts in 07 [3rd amongst 1Bs], 478 in 08 [7th 1B], 509 in 09 [tied 4th 1B].
The only 1B kept was Pujols. In 2009, Adrian Gonzalez also had 509 pts while Ryan Howard had 508. Derrek Lee was next with 482 pts. In 2008, Morneau put up 530 pts. Based on your rankings, I should go with Cabrera with my pick by a long shot, but I'm having a difficult time justifying it. He just hasn't lived up to the hype. Did the episode last October really give him refocus? Or is that just window dressing?

(distant 3rd) Jimmy Rollins (660 pts in 07 [1st amongst SS by large margin], 477 in 08 [3rd SS], 491 in 09 [3rd SS]):
Hanley, Tulo and Jeter were kept. I bumped up Reyes to the equivalent of an early 3rd rder. Otherwise, the next SS on my board is ranked 80th overall and isn't much different than four others ranked behind him. It seems like Rollins is a safe bet to fall in the top 3-5 SS. The only reason I mention him is due to the lack of SS options.

Others I've considered (in order of most to least): D. Wright, Matt Holliday, A. Gonzalez, Sizemore, Kinsler.

I'm leaning towards Sabathia based on his 08 and 07 performances, assuming 09 is the floor. However, the perceived value of Miggy is so high that I may have to draft him even if he isn't much different than A. Gonzalez, Howard or Morneau.


I'd take Miggy.

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Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: 1st Rd draft pick
PostPosted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 1:50 pm 
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What if the choice were Sabathia+Morneau versus Miggy + one of Beckett or Haren? I'm relatively confident Morneau, Beckett and Haren will all be available at the 20th pick.

_________________
12-teamer, H2H, points, 4 keepers.
Hitters: +1 single, +2 dbl, +3 trpl, +4 HR, +1 RBI, +1 run, +1 BB/HBP, -1 K, +2 SB, -1 CS
Pitchers: +1.5 IP, +1 K, -1 BB/HBP, +5 W, -3 L, +4 S, -2 BS, +3 CG, +10 shutout
Start one player at each position + utility, 4 SPs, 2 RPs. 8 reserves.

C: M. Montero
1B: Allen Craig
2B: Kinsler
3B: Longoria
SS: Segura
OF: Bautista, Holliday, Melky Cabrera
U: one of Pedroia, Blackmon, Dickerson or Carlos Beltran
SP: Wainwright, Iwakuma, Sonny Gray, Cobb
RP: Kimbrel, F. Rodney
Bench: Archer, Kennedy, Arrieta, McHugh


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 Post subject: Re: 1st Rd draft pick
PostPosted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 1:57 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm
Posts: 31583
You have Lee, I wouldn't take another SP right off the bat.

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 1st Rd draft pick
PostPosted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 6:18 pm 
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Thanks for the advice, I'll go w/ Miggy, I'm convinced.

I'm reluctant to select a SP w/ my 2nd rder given that my 2nd tier of SPs begins there and I'll be able to get someone from that tier in the 3rd rd. How do you rank this group for my 2nd round pick: Sizemore, Reyes, Ellsbury, V. Martinez, Crawford? I tend to think Sizemore and V. Martinez will be selected at that point. I know you don't like taking catchers early, but Victor was 100 pts better than the next best catcher last season, that's a 20% difference in production. If Sizemore and Victor are chosen, I'm leaning towards Reyes. He was the 2nd overall performer in terms of points in 08 (1st SS) and 6th overall in 07 (1st SS). If he plays like he did in those years, he's a huge steal. Ellsbury is probably the safe pick in that scenario though, given that he was the 8th overall performer (2nd OF) in points last year.

How do you feel about Johan in the 3rd? This is where I see the last of my 2nd tier pitchers going. His spring performance hasn't been overly impressive, but I'm more concerned with whether he's feeling healthy.

_________________
12-teamer, H2H, points, 4 keepers.
Hitters: +1 single, +2 dbl, +3 trpl, +4 HR, +1 RBI, +1 run, +1 BB/HBP, -1 K, +2 SB, -1 CS
Pitchers: +1.5 IP, +1 K, -1 BB/HBP, +5 W, -3 L, +4 S, -2 BS, +3 CG, +10 shutout
Start one player at each position + utility, 4 SPs, 2 RPs. 8 reserves.

C: M. Montero
1B: Allen Craig
2B: Kinsler
3B: Longoria
SS: Segura
OF: Bautista, Holliday, Melky Cabrera
U: one of Pedroia, Blackmon, Dickerson or Carlos Beltran
SP: Wainwright, Iwakuma, Sonny Gray, Cobb
RP: Kimbrel, F. Rodney
Bench: Archer, Kennedy, Arrieta, McHugh


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 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 1st Rd draft pick
PostPosted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 6:59 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm
Posts: 31583
Sizemore, Ellsbury, Johan... Sounds good.

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 1st Rd draft pick
PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 3:31 am 
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Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2010 12:49 pm
Posts: 376
As always, thank your for your advice. A margarita is coming your way.

I'll take Miggy at the 5th pick. Then it gets a bit more unpredictable. I'm leaning towards one of Sizemore, Ellsbury, V. Martinez or Reyes in that order. Two of those four will be available. I know you favor Sizemore, then Ellsbury. However, who would you take between V. Martinez and Reyes? I've talked around w/ other owners and through my recon, I think my 2nd rounder could be a V. Martinez or Reyes pick w/ a few darkhorses (see below). If you think others are more worthy, please let me know. Otherwise, Reyes put up incredible numbers in 07 and 08 (1st SS both years, 2nd to 6th overall in pts). If healthy, as a catcher, Martinez is 100 pts (20%) better than the next best catcher if he can match his 09 numbers.

Legit darkhorses:
Crawford
Morneau (already would have selected Miggy so 1B is not a priority)
Cano (already kept Beckham as a 15th rder, so 2B is not a priority)
Haren/Beckett (think I can get a comparable SP in the 3rd rd, ex. Johan, Wainwright)
Bay/Markakis (top of my 2nd tier of OFs, may as well wait on a OF in the 4th, ex. Manny, Granderson, Carlos Lee, Ichiro, Werth, etc.)

_________________
12-teamer, H2H, points, 4 keepers.
Hitters: +1 single, +2 dbl, +3 trpl, +4 HR, +1 RBI, +1 run, +1 BB/HBP, -1 K, +2 SB, -1 CS
Pitchers: +1.5 IP, +1 K, -1 BB/HBP, +5 W, -3 L, +4 S, -2 BS, +3 CG, +10 shutout
Start one player at each position + utility, 4 SPs, 2 RPs. 8 reserves.

C: M. Montero
1B: Allen Craig
2B: Kinsler
3B: Longoria
SS: Segura
OF: Bautista, Holliday, Melky Cabrera
U: one of Pedroia, Blackmon, Dickerson or Carlos Beltran
SP: Wainwright, Iwakuma, Sonny Gray, Cobb
RP: Kimbrel, F. Rodney
Bench: Archer, Kennedy, Arrieta, McHugh


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 1st Rd draft pick
PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 3:54 am 
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Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2010 12:49 pm
Posts: 376
Btw, donated $13 to the margarita fund tonight. I recommend that anyone/everyone donates. I appreciate your advice. I will continue to support your efforts throughout the season.

_________________
12-teamer, H2H, points, 4 keepers.
Hitters: +1 single, +2 dbl, +3 trpl, +4 HR, +1 RBI, +1 run, +1 BB/HBP, -1 K, +2 SB, -1 CS
Pitchers: +1.5 IP, +1 K, -1 BB/HBP, +5 W, -3 L, +4 S, -2 BS, +3 CG, +10 shutout
Start one player at each position + utility, 4 SPs, 2 RPs. 8 reserves.

C: M. Montero
1B: Allen Craig
2B: Kinsler
3B: Longoria
SS: Segura
OF: Bautista, Holliday, Melky Cabrera
U: one of Pedroia, Blackmon, Dickerson or Carlos Beltran
SP: Wainwright, Iwakuma, Sonny Gray, Cobb
RP: Kimbrel, F. Rodney
Bench: Archer, Kennedy, Arrieta, McHugh


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 1st Rd draft pick
PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 7:33 am 
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Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm
Posts: 31583
Deltron wrote:
As always, thank your for your advice. A margarita is coming your way.

I'll take Miggy at the 5th pick. Then it gets a bit more unpredictable. I'm leaning towards one of Sizemore, Ellsbury, V. Martinez or Reyes in that order. Two of those four will be available. I know you favor Sizemore, then Ellsbury. However, who would you take between V. Martinez and Reyes? I've talked around w/ other owners and through my recon, I think my 2nd rounder could be a V. Martinez or Reyes pick w/ a few darkhorses (see below). If you think others are more worthy, please let me know. Otherwise, Reyes put up incredible numbers in 07 and 08 (1st SS both years, 2nd to 6th overall in pts). If healthy, as a catcher, Martinez is 100 pts (20%) better than the next best catcher if he can match his 09 numbers.

Legit darkhorses:
Crawford
Morneau (already would have selected Miggy so 1B is not a priority)
Cano (already kept Beckham as a 15th rder, so 2B is not a priority)
Haren/Beckett (think I can get a comparable SP in the 3rd rd, ex. Johan, Wainwright)
Bay/Markakis (top of my 2nd tier of OFs, may as well wait on a OF in the 4th, ex. Manny, Granderson, Carlos Lee, Ichiro, Werth, etc.)


I'd take Crawford, Morneau, Reyes then V-Mart, in that order. Thanks for the donation!

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


Top
 Profile  
 
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