12-team, H2H, points-based league, 3 keepers. 15 starters (utility hitter, 4 SPs, 2 relievers). Draft is this Saturday.

I kept Cliff Lee, Gordon Beckham (eligible as a 2B) and Denard Span. I ended up w/ the 5th selection in the draft. The top four players available in the player pool should go in the top 4 picks: Braun, Utley, Fielder and Teixeira. I've brought my decision down to the following:

C.C. Sabathia (510 pts in 07 [1st amongst SPs], 582 in 08 [1st amongst SPs by a huge margin], 447 in 09 [8th SPs]. Lincecum, Halladay, Greinke, Verlander and King Felix were all kept. Sabathia is the last elite, top tier SP on my board. If he pitches anything like 2008 or even 2007, then it's a no brainer. Haren and Beckett are the next best available, but they haven't put up the type of numbers in their careers that Sabathia has. Then, the SP pool becomes more questionable w/ Johan, Wainwright, Gallardo and Nolasco following. I should mention that Lester, J. Johnson, Carpenter, Kershaw, Hanson and Billingsley were also kept.

Miguel Cabrera (502 pts in 07 [3rd amongst 1Bs], 478 in 08 [7th 1B], 509 in 09 [tied 4th 1B].
The only 1B kept was Pujols. In 2009, Adrian Gonzalez also had 509 pts while Ryan Howard had 508. Derrek Lee was next with 482 pts. In 2008, Morneau put up 530 pts. Based on your rankings, I should go with Cabrera with my pick by a long shot, but I'm having a difficult time justifying it. He just hasn't lived up to the hype. Did the episode last October really give him refocus? Or is that just window dressing?

(distant 3rd) Jimmy Rollins (660 pts in 07 [1st amongst SS by large margin], 477 in 08 [3rd SS], 491 in 09 [3rd SS]):
Hanley, Tulo and Jeter were kept. I bumped up Reyes to the equivalent of an early 3rd rder. Otherwise, the next SS on my board is ranked 80th overall and isn't much different than four others ranked behind him. It seems like Rollins is a safe bet to fall in the top 3-5 SS. The only reason I mention him is due to the lack of SS options.

Others I've considered (in order of most to least): D. Wright, Matt Holliday, A. Gonzalez, Sizemore, Kinsler.

I'm leaning towards Sabathia based on his 08 and 07 performances, assuming 09 is the floor. However, the perceived value of Miggy is so high that I may have to draft him even if he isn't much different than A. Gonzalez, Howard or Morneau.

I'd take Miggy.

What if the choice were Sabathia+Morneau versus Miggy + one of Beckett or Haren? I'm relatively confident Morneau, Beckett and Haren will all be available at the 20th pick.

You have Lee, I wouldn't take another SP right off the bat.

Thanks for the advice, I'll go w/ Miggy, I'm convinced.

I'm reluctant to select a SP w/ my 2nd rder given that my 2nd tier of SPs begins there and I'll be able to get someone from that tier in the 3rd rd. How do you rank this group for my 2nd round pick: Sizemore, Reyes, Ellsbury, V. Martinez, Crawford? I tend to think Sizemore and V. Martinez will be selected at that point. I know you don't like taking catchers early, but Victor was 100 pts better than the next best catcher last season, that's a 20% difference in production. If Sizemore and Victor are chosen, I'm leaning towards Reyes. He was the 2nd overall performer in terms of points in 08 (1st SS) and 6th overall in 07 (1st SS). If he plays like he did in those years, he's a huge steal. Ellsbury is probably the safe pick in that scenario though, given that he was the 8th overall performer (2nd OF) in points last year.

How do you feel about Johan in the 3rd? This is where I see the last of my 2nd tier pitchers going. His spring performance hasn't been overly impressive, but I'm more concerned with whether he's feeling healthy.

Sizemore, Ellsbury, Johan... Sounds good.

As always, thank your for your advice. A margarita is coming your way.

I'll take Miggy at the 5th pick. Then it gets a bit more unpredictable. I'm leaning towards one of Sizemore, Ellsbury, V. Martinez or Reyes in that order. Two of those four will be available. I know you favor Sizemore, then Ellsbury. However, who would you take between V. Martinez and Reyes? I've talked around w/ other owners and through my recon, I think my 2nd rounder could be a V. Martinez or Reyes pick w/ a few darkhorses (see below). If you think others are more worthy, please let me know. Otherwise, Reyes put up incredible numbers in 07 and 08 (1st SS both years, 2nd to 6th overall in pts). If healthy, as a catcher, Martinez is 100 pts (20%) better than the next best catcher if he can match his 09 numbers.

Legit darkhorses:
Crawford
Morneau (already would have selected Miggy so 1B is not a priority)
Cano (already kept Beckham as a 15th rder, so 2B is not a priority)
Haren/Beckett (think I can get a comparable SP in the 3rd rd, ex. Johan, Wainwright)
Bay/Markakis (top of my 2nd tier of OFs, may as well wait on a OF in the 4th, ex. Manny, Granderson, Carlos Lee, Ichiro, Werth, etc.)

Btw, donated $13 to the margarita fund tonight. I recommend that anyone/everyone donates. I appreciate your advice. I will continue to support your efforts throughout the season.

I'd take Crawford, Morneau, Reyes then V-Mart, in that order. Thanks for the donation!