2009 Razzball Mock Corrected to True James: Conrats STEVE L!

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Simply Fred
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2009 Razzball Mock Corrected to True James: Conrats STEVE L!

Postby Simply Fred » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:04 am

OK, Big-O sent me a gentle reminder that if I want to tackle a job, I should do it right. I went back and scored all positions as drafted (bench players not scored, since they are, well...bench and several folks dropped fliers in here that weren't even projected by James) against the true Bill James projections. The real winner is Steve L!!!! Congrats sir! Here are the new lines. (I left the old ones below so you could take shots at me.) Anyone wanting a re-count (nightmare fuel might lead that pack) can email me at fred_barker@comcast.net for James' spreadsheet. Note: Steve didn't win a single category but was in the top echelons of most with only one lower half ranking ("AVG" = 5).

TOT Manager R HR RBI SB AVG K W SV ERA WHIP Total
89.5 SteveL 1149 7 312 11 1154 11 195 9 .281 5 920 10 62 6.5 80 10 3.34 10 1.24 10 89.5
88.5 nightmare fuel 1163 10 271 4 1042 3 209 11 .279 3.5 971 11 74 12 84 11 3.15 12 1.19 11 88.5
76 Kyle James 1206 12 284 8 1151 10 182 7 .287 11 897 8 58 3.5 68 6 3.5 6 1.29 4.5 76
73 gopher day 1143 5 272 5 1091 7 187 8 .285 8.5 816 3 62 8.5 66 5 3.27 11 1.19 12 73
68 dexter 1162 9 279 7 1094 8 135 3 .279 3.5 900 9 62 6.5 72 8 3.48 7 1.25 7 68
68 brett 1161 8 278 6 1032 2 230 12 .277 1.5 976 12 65 10.5 29 3 3.62 4 1.24 9 68
63 chata 1167 11 306 10 1169 12 139 4 .285 8.5 768 1 58 3.5 17 2 3.39 9 1.3 2 63
57.5 Simply Fred 964 1 237 2 906 1 199 10 .286 10 893 7 62 8.5 69 7 3.58 5 1.27 6 57.5
53.5 freak 1090 3 318 12 1085 6 160 5 .277 1.5 829 5.5 60 5 74 9 3.64 2 1.29 4.5 53.5
50 caveman clubbers 1048 2 256 3 1049 4 119 1 .282 6.5 821 4 56 1.5 85 12 3.42 8 1.25 8 50
49 rev12 1148 6 229 1 1069 5 174 6 .289 12 829 5.5 65 10.5 0 1 3.84 1 1.32 1 49
44 old rungo 1128 4 304 9 1143 9 125 2 .282 6.5 807 2 56 1.5 57 4 3.63 3 1.3 3 44




I applied Bill James' 2010 projections for each player drafted. It's not perfect; they are just projections, made in the fall before player moves, etc. but, perhaps, a fun look at our effort.

Put the picks along with the stats in a table. Sorted each category and ranked from 12 to 1. Summed 'em all up. The table is really telling. (Sorry, but I don't know how to post it here.)The final rankings with point totals are:

91.5 Nightmare Fuel
85 SteveL
78 Brett
76.5 Dexter
76 Gopher
76 Kyle James
60.5 chata
59 Simply Fred
56.5 old rungo
43.5 freak (the fix was in, freak)
42 caveman clubbers
35.5 rev12 (hampered by auto picks)

While a number of us were duking it out for the heavy hitting cats, Nightmare had 12's across the board in pitching with the one exception, an 11 in Saves; he also managed a 12 in SB and 9 in Runs.
Last edited by Simply Fred on Mon Dec 21, 2009 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2009 Razzball Mock Final Rankings--Congrats Nightmare Fuel!!

Postby big o » Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:22 am

thanks for post , fred .
but , if i'm reading this correctly ,
if we throw out the top 4 scorers ,
freak still would have finished
next to , next to , last ?

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Re: 2009 Razzball Mock Final Rankings--Congrats Nightmare Fuel!!

Postby Dexter » Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:43 am

Fred, thanks for doing all that legwork. I would definitely be interested in seeing the points rundown if you are able to figure out a way to paste that on there.

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Re: 2009 Razzball Mock Final Rankings--Details added

Postby Simply Fred » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:00 am

OK, you should be able to sort yours out. The column after each cat is the points associated with the ranking. For example, NF: 1120, 9 is the points.
(Truth in packaging: I only scored one C; 5 SP, 2 RP. One or two took heavy penalties if you didn't have 5 SP I filled with an RP. I know it was set up as 5P total, but I wanted to replicate as much as possible standard RCL. I had started to "adjust" a few of James' predictions from partial season to hopefully fuller set of games, so they are in the results, but really wouldn't have much of an overall impact. I didn't want to go back and clean that up just for our fun mock results.)

R HR RBI SB AVG K W SV ERA WHIP Total
NF 1120 9 262 5 995 3 206 12 0.28 3.5 1146 12 86 12 84 11 3.25 12 1.21 12 91.5
SL 1101 7.5 299 10 1079 9 195 9 0.28 5.5 1075 9 71 7 80 10 3.49 9 1.25 9 85
BR 1125 10 310 12 1034 7 203 10 0.28 2 1095 11 78 10 29 3 3.62 3 1.25 10 78
DX 1142 11 269 6.5 1063 8 139 4 0.28 7 1088 10 81 11 72 7 3.58 4 1.26 8 76.5
KJ 1146 12 269 6.5 1092 12 182 7 0.29 11.5 1064 8 70 6 68 6 3.54 6 1.3 1 76
GD 1101 7.5 256 4 1012 5 190 8 0.29 8.5 1006 7 73 9 66 5 3.36 11 1.22 11 76
CH 1091 6 294 9 1090 11 125 3 0.28 5.5 946 4 72 8 17 2 3.45 10 1.29 2 60.5
SF 958.12 1 233.6 3 909.06 1 204 11 0.29 10 977 6 67 4 74 8.5 3.5 8 1.27 6.5 59
OR 1079 4 286 8 1083 10 119 2 0.29 8.5 958 5 69 5 57 4 3.56 5 1.27 5 56.5
FK 1032 3 309 11 1029 6 159 5 0.28 1 916 2 65 2 74 8.5 3.63 2 1.29 3 43.5
CC 979 2 232 2 949 2 115 1 0.28 3.5 926 3 66 3 85 12 3.54 7 1.27 6.5 42
RV 1087 5 215 1 1007 4 173 6 0.29 11.5 764 1 60 1 0 1 3.69 1 1.27 4 35.5

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Re: 2009 Razzball Mock Final Rankings--Congrats Nightmare Fuel!!

Postby brett » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:43 am

Thanks for the hard work, Fred. Some interesting stuff here. While there's definitely an argument for drafting pitching early, pitching is less predictable than hitting and therefore maybe less telling of a good team on draft day. But all the same, congrats to NF. Also, with some of us really buying into SAGNOF here, this league would have a messy looking waiver wire (as all good leagues should, i suppose). I'll have to make a note not to strand myself in the saves cat when playing with a bunch of Razzballers. Finally, i think my team is only as high as it is because Bill James LOVES taking the over on his young player projections, but so do i, so that's cool i guess. Glad to see myself #1 in HR as i strive for all the time.

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Re: 2009 Razzball Mock Final Rankings--Congrats Nightmare Fuel!!

Postby Simply Fred » Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:45 am

I am not putting too much into James. It was just that he had a set of projections that were easy for me to download and work with. I am already tweaking them. Pitching is much less reliable than hitting. Don't think 3 of my top 5 will be pitchers.

The big thing I am taking from this is moving players in and out of my lineup,with the associated points, and I can see which categories I can "afford" to draft down in order to get a bigger up in cats where I am terribly lagging.

Have fun!

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Re: 2009 Razzball Mock Final Rankings--Congrats Nightmare Fuel!!

Postby Freak » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:41 pm

Who is this Bill James person and why is he stupid?

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Re: 2009 Razzball Mock Final Rankings--Congrats Nightmare Fuel!!

Postby big o » Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:59 pm

@ fred :
i know your intentions are completely honorable , but ,
to adjust the scoring to fit the parameters that you wish existed is a completely bogus contention .

whether you like it or not , the draft called for 2 catchers ...draft strategies were formulated and carried out according to the guidelines of the mock draft , as stipulated from the out-set .

to reconfigure a scoring stystem according to what you wish were the rules is voodoo economics , at the least , and revisionist history , at it's worst .

suggest you re-work the numbers , and /or ,
be more careful , next time , to ensure that you join the type of league/draft of the sort you desire .

as such , all of your hard work , to assemble these numbers , results in meaningless conclusions .

cust kayin'

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Simply Fred
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Re: 2009 Razzball Mock Final Rankings--Congrats Nightmare Fuel!!

Postby Simply Fred » Mon Dec 21, 2009 12:26 am

Big-O: I understand that you put a lot of work into setting up the mock and that for me to change the rules, wasn't fitting. Maybe it will help if I state: "My point system was not a fair and accurate portrayal of the mock as it was designed."

For my part, I had some time on my hands, configured it for my own purposes, learning, and fun. When I got done, I thought, "Why not share it?" I don't want your feelings to be hurt. I was just having fun trying to put the RAZZ-MATAZZ in Razzball!

Can you lighten up a little and not take a mock so seriously? No babies were killed.
BTW: I think it has very much meaning, even with the changes I made. If you don't see the value, fine.

Freak: Great to have you check in! I asked myself the same question and decided that the next mock should be valued against Grey's projections. So, at/near completion of his postings, I would propose to have another mock (more closely aligned with RCL, maybe Big-O will recover and would run it). There was some talk about getting the "experts" to participate. Maybe start at the top of the list of most frequent commenters until we get 12 that want to participate?

Bottom line: it seems as if Grey's predictions would be much better to help us prepare for our real drafts.

This all moot to you since--you don't need any freakin' help! :-)

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Re: 2009 Razzball Mock Final Rankings--Congrats Nightmare Fuel!!

Postby oldrungo » Mon Dec 21, 2009 6:49 am

Wow SF- thanks for going through the effort to put that together. Fairly depressing to see how my team stacks up, even on the basis of adjusting for my own "projections". You don't by chance happen to have the Bill James projections available in a spreadsheet format do you?


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