Ok all, here's the projected standings using Marcel projections - http://razzball.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... c20081.xls
I did the standings 2 ways:
1) Standings - Marcel Proj AB tab - Based solely on Marcel data (plus the addition of a CHONE projection for Matt Wieters who isn't in Marcel)
2) Standings - Fixed AB tab - Fixed team ABs at 6500 and then adjusted R/HR/RBI/SB accordingly
The reason I did the 2nd standings was that the team totals were very close on offense (partially due to Marcel's conservative projections) and team ABs was a huge variable - e.g., the top team had 6,872 AB, the bottom had 5,579. Marcel isn't a very good predictor of ABs. It's good at figuring out HR per AB, R per AB, etc. So I thought another way to compare the teams was to fix the ABs at 6,500 and then adjust up/down the other totals for offense.
As you'll see, this has a huge difference in the standings. For instance, the 'ClaytonJones' team has 9 pts in HRs based solely on Marcel projections but that's driven by the fact that it has more veterans (so higher projected ABs). If you take out the AB advantage, it gets 2 pts. Perhaps the truth is in the middle but tough to say.
This confirms a decision Grey and I made for the official Point Shares in that we won't use raw stats from Marcel, CHONE, etc. We're going to adjust it based on projected ABs from a source that takes expected playing time into account (likely Baseball Prospectus).