Thoughts on this keeper league trade please:

Assume already keeping Adam Jones (rd 7), Matt Kemp (rd 2), Brett Lawrie (rd 22), Chris Sale (rd 19).

Which is preferable: Miguel Cabrera in 1st round with a 15th rd pick later OR a 1st round pick of non-keepers with Billy Butler in the 15th round?

Note that a factor in my thought process is that Miggy no longer qualifies at 1st, and I am inclined to hang onto Lawrie as I've got him at such good value. So I'd have a logjam at 3rd.

If by getting Cabrera, it gives you a logjam at 3B, that is a problem I am perfectly fine having. Take Cabrera here. 1B has depth so you can find a solid player to man that position but you aren't going to be able to get that kind of production in the draft.

I'd probably prefer Miggy, but it would depend on a couple things. Which pick in the first round, early, middle, late? Who isn't being kept? I mean, if you have the first pick and Braun isn't being kept it's a different story than if you have the 12th pick and the best non-keeper is Jimmy Rollins.

Good points. It would be the 6th pick, but unfortunately I'd have to decide before all non-keepers are revealed. Of course I could use common sense to get a sense. But it would be hard to pin down exactly which players would be available.

Thanks for the response.

Are there any keeper rules that would mean some of the top guys won't be kept (max 3 years, move up 2 rounds each year, etc)? If you don't expect at least 6 of the top 20 to be there I'd just go with Miggy.

I think you need to keep Miggy. Doesn't seem like a terrible deal but, you can trade Miggy (if you chose to) during the season for pretty much anyone straight up. I would hold onto him.

Miggy is the model of consistency. Barring injury (knock on wood) he represents top 3-5 value. I can't see any of the top 10 guys being available in the first round of the draft. If you agree then this is a no-brainer. (also assuming there aren't any special keeper rules the last post asked about).

Lawrie is injured (again). I would hold Miggy and wait for Lawrie to come back and play well. You could consider trading either at that time (likely Lawrie over Miggy to trade that is).

Think about it. You could trade Miggy for: Fielder or Votto or Pujols to solve your 1B problem...depending on how these three (and Miggy) start off the season, you could probably get a solid RP thrown into the deal.