BABIP - Am I reading too much into it?

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Brownie19
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BABIP - Am I reading too much into it?

Postby Brownie19 » Sat May 09, 2009 8:12 am

Sorry Grey - not sure what Forum this goes in.

This is the first year I've really looked at and followed BABIP and I'm afraid I'm becoming too reliant on it. I'm hanging onto Beckett (high BABIP), I've traded for Slowey (high BABIP) and I'm looking to move Danks to get Lester b/c Dank's BABIP is quite low and Lester's is VERY high.

I dealt N.Johnson (high BABIP) for C.Young (low BABIP) and I'm holding tight on low BABIP players like Quentin, Coco and Iannetta. Now I'm trying to get Holliday and his low BABIP.

I think I'm getting too obsessed with BABIP. How much do you believe in it? Is this a bad strategy?

I'm sure you'll tell me it's a good tool to use, but not to rely on it too much. I've always had good success in fantasy baseball and I'm concerned that I'm messing with a good thing.

Thoughts?
12Team 1yr 5x5 Roto
C-Jaso($1)
1st-Fielder ($38)
2nd-Weeks ($9)
SS-Zobrost ($15)
3rd-Moustakes ($6)
MI-M.Young ($3)
CI-Goldschmidt ($25)
OF-J.Upton ($35)
OF-Cain (FA)
OF-A.Gordon ($15)
OF-Pence ($7)
OF-Victorino (Trade)
Util-Rizzo ($14)
B-Maybin ($2), C.Carter ($1), Dido (FA), Bourjos (FA), Cespedes ($27), Ackley (FA)

SP-Price (trade), Medlen ($13)
RP-Balfour ($2), Frieri ($3)
P- R.Cook ($1), Buchholz (FA), Russell (FA), Mujica (FA)
B-Samardzija ($9), Minor ($6), H.Bailey ($3), Beachy (DL)

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Beane Disciple
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Re: BABIP - Am I reading too much into it?

Postby Beane Disciple » Sat May 09, 2009 8:25 am

I know where you're coming from because I am also using it a lot for the first time this year and have questioned it.

When making decisions in Fantasy Baseball you want to get as much information as possible. I have used BABIP and FB/HR% a lot in my decisions this year for trades/acquisitions of pitchers and hitters. Here's why I think it makes the quality of your decision making a lot better:

Previously you would have a lot of bland statistics to go on when a player is playing noticeably well or poorly. Let's take Ortiz and Teixeira. Without BABIP and FB/HR% one might say "these guys are both really stinking it up. Maybe their value is about the same." What these metrics allow you to do is quantify luck vs. regression to an extent. After looking at the numbers you're able to say that Teixeira may not be playing his best but has gotten unlucky so far whereas Ortiz is clearly a shadow is former self and luck is not helping him out.

I agree with you about not wanting to rely entirely on these metrics but it does allow you to buy high/sell low with greater accuracy which is, in my opinion, the key to dominating Fantasy Baseball. This year will be my experiment with relying heavily on these two statistics in my decision making. I have a sense that they will be a huge weapon in the arsenal of the player who likes to use facts and logic rather than mysticism (the Joe Morgan approach) to make decisions about baseball players.
Yahoo League: 10 Team Roto 5x5

C- Wieters
1B- Cabrera
2B- Cuddyer
SS- Hanley
3B- Beltre
CI: Ike Davis
MI: Andrus
LF- Tabata
CF- BJ Upton
RF- De Aza
UTIL- Maybin
UTIL-Lind
B: Ackley
B: Dunn
B: Ryan Roberts

P- Greinke
P- Bumgarner
P- Josh Johnson
P- Cain
P- Marcum
P- Walden
P- League
P- Guerra
B- Balfour
B- Johnson
B- Broxton

marcheese
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Re: BABIP - Am I reading too much into it?

Postby marcheese » Sat May 09, 2009 8:26 am

What's a good website that provides the BABIP stat? Can't seem to find one...

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Beane Disciple
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Re: BABIP - Am I reading too much into it?

Postby Beane Disciple » Sat May 09, 2009 8:35 am

Go to:

www.fangraphs.com

on the upper right there's a box that says "leaders", put your cursor over it and click on "major leagues." Once that comes up click on "Batted Ball" and if you click on "BABIP" it'll sort the players according to it (first time you click it gives you the highest, next click it'll sort them by the lowest). At the top you can toggle between "Pitching" and "Batting" but you'll have to repeat the process of sorting them.

FB/HR% can be deceiving- make sure with batters in particular that you click on them and look at their historical ratio. Low power guys will have lower FB/HR% in general so don't just look at it without analyzing their track records. Ballpark can also affect this but I like to use it a lot when looking at pitchers especially.
Yahoo League: 10 Team Roto 5x5

C- Wieters
1B- Cabrera
2B- Cuddyer
SS- Hanley
3B- Beltre
CI: Ike Davis
MI: Andrus
LF- Tabata
CF- BJ Upton
RF- De Aza
UTIL- Maybin
UTIL-Lind
B: Ackley
B: Dunn
B: Ryan Roberts

P- Greinke
P- Bumgarner
P- Josh Johnson
P- Cain
P- Marcum
P- Walden
P- League
P- Guerra
B- Balfour
B- Johnson
B- Broxton

marcheese
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Re: BABIP - Am I reading too much into it?

Postby marcheese » Sat May 09, 2009 8:45 am

Perfect. I've read a lot about the BABIP, but never really actually followed it myself. I know there is years where guys have very unlucky BABIP, but then there are years where guys have very lucky BABIP. Hopefully Grey can provide us with some insight on how to use the stat effectively.

cfrancis
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Re: BABIP - Am I reading too much into it?

Postby cfrancis » Sat May 09, 2009 1:59 pm

Interesting! Thanks for the info. Sorting by BABIP, two names stand out: Berkman and Quentin.

Things that make you go....hmmmmm....
Christopher

Whole Votto Love
10-team 5x5 Standard H2H
C Castro
1B C Davis
2B Phillips
3B Longoria
SS Peralta
OF x 3 J Upton, A Jones, McCutchen
Util x 2 Choo, D Brown
Bench Seager
DL A Jackson
P Zimmerman, Moore, Cobb, Peavy, Ryu, Liriano, Straily
RP Wilhelmsen, Mujica, K-Rod, Jansen
DL Henderson, Beachy

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Beane Disciple
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Re: BABIP - Am I reading too much into it?

Postby Beane Disciple » Sat May 09, 2009 5:14 pm

Exactly but that's an excellent example of why you also have to look at FB/HR% because people will say "Quentin's not hitting that bad, look at his home runs!" Well his BABIP is very low which explains his weak batting average but his FB/HR% is proportionately high (meaning he's hitting more home runs than he ought to be right now).

As I alluded to at the end of my previous post on this I like to use it for pitchers even more. If you can find a guy who was supposed to be good this year but is getting lit up take a look at him. The best are guys that have sky high BABIP and FB/HR% (allowed) because they are getting screwed right now. Two guys on this list right now- Slowey and Beckett.
Yahoo League: 10 Team Roto 5x5

C- Wieters
1B- Cabrera
2B- Cuddyer
SS- Hanley
3B- Beltre
CI: Ike Davis
MI: Andrus
LF- Tabata
CF- BJ Upton
RF- De Aza
UTIL- Maybin
UTIL-Lind
B: Ackley
B: Dunn
B: Ryan Roberts

P- Greinke
P- Bumgarner
P- Josh Johnson
P- Cain
P- Marcum
P- Walden
P- League
P- Guerra
B- Balfour
B- Johnson
B- Broxton

cfrancis
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Re: BABIP - Am I reading too much into it?

Postby cfrancis » Sat May 09, 2009 8:39 pm

Looks like Lester falls into that category as well.
Christopher

Whole Votto Love
10-team 5x5 Standard H2H
C Castro
1B C Davis
2B Phillips
3B Longoria
SS Peralta
OF x 3 J Upton, A Jones, McCutchen
Util x 2 Choo, D Brown
Bench Seager
DL A Jackson
P Zimmerman, Moore, Cobb, Peavy, Ryu, Liriano, Straily
RP Wilhelmsen, Mujica, K-Rod, Jansen
DL Henderson, Beachy


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