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 Post subject: Problem with Pre-Draft Rankings
PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:04 pm 
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Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:35 pm
Posts: 91
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Looking at past years the turnover for the top 10 in RB is far greater than that at WR and QB. Granted, you need premier RB to rake up the points, yet every year it seems the RBs I started with are different than the ones I head into postseason battle with.

I've tried a new strategy of drafting this year in many of my drafts. After absorbing the wisdom of fantastic sites such as this one I have gone into drafts with the mentality of drafting players on where I think they will stand at mid-season. This is hard to do with WR and QBs as there are less injuries and WRs do not have the same floor as a RB who gets 20 carries a game. As such, here are the players that I am not touching whatsoever (unless of course they fall to a ridiculous level that never, ever happens):

-Michael Turner (so my previous post why I am so down on him)
-Jamal Lewis (old and will face at the minimum a RBBC by mid-season)
-Ryan Grant (just not that talented and faces strong competition from Wynn, Jackson... his upside is far outweighed by the possibility he disappears in the 2nd half)
-Joseph Addai (I see Brown getting more and more involved as year progresses)
-Buchhalter, Kevin Faulk, Justin Fargas, all Seattle RBs, Thomas Jones, Benson (there upside is not much more than there ADP).

Now these cats could provide great 1st half value... yet good fantasy players should have the confidence to know they have the skills to put themselves into postseason contention. Now these are the high risk/high reward RBs that I'm chasing like a hot drunk sorority girl you meet an at afterparty:

-Beanie Wells (injuries are a concern, yet vastly more talented than Hightower in an explosive offense)
-Darren McFadden (guy is a stud and Russell will check down a ton. Look for Davis' phone call down to the bench calling plays for McFadden, just ask Warren Sapp a few years ago)
-Donald Brown (not as much upside here with his ADP).
-LeSean McCoy (not as much upside here with his ADP)

-Lawrence Maroney (Morris is on the roster bubble, Faulk/Taylor have lost a step. He lost last season to a bad shoulder injury that went unreported. He could get 75% of the touches in the 2nd half).
-James Davis (by week 6 should be the man in CLE)
-Ahmad Bradshaw (Jacobs will go down, and Bradshaw is an undervalued talent. Ware may steal a few carries yet Bradshaw will be the man when Jacobs goes down/NYG sits him weeks 15-17 to rest for playoffs)
-DeShaun Wynn (he was a top talent coming out of Florida yet I think he was busted for stealing a playstation (I hope the $200 system was worth the millions he lost in a signing bonus when he dropped a few rounds))
-Bernard Scott (Benson sucks, he padded his stats at the end of last year against some bad defenses).

Controversial opinions I know. Even if you roster three of the players from this last group and one pans out you will get a ton of value... and is far better than rostering a backup TE, D/ST or more than 1 WR. You play to win the game, and there is nothing like gambling big and winning big my friends.


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 Post subject: Re: Problem with Pre-Draft Rankings
PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:57 pm 
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Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 12:51 pm
Posts: 368
Location: 60613
Sure and I can hit a straight flush with my 3 5 of diamonds too. But I agree with most of what yous got to say. Elite and predictable WR have far less turnover than the top 10 rb's. All you have to say is Forte, De, Turner, and Slaton. The only rb's that really have an empirically significant difference were LT and Holmes in their prime.

That is where not losing your league with your first round pick and winning the league with upside in the 2-14 rounds comes into play.

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