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 Post subject: Would you take Manning @ #24?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:20 pm 
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ADP is mine since I have the number 1 pick, with the 24-25 picks I'm planning on the best WR left and the best RB/WR with the other but Pick. However Manning keeps falling there in mocks. Would you bite on him without the ability to fill either a WR or RB slot again until #48?


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 Post subject: Re: Would you take Manning @ #24?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2009 5:26 pm 
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1,000,000% yes. There are a litany of reasons for this, which I could expound upon, or you can take me at my word.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you take Manning @ #24?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:42 pm 
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Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Looking at past years... the QB and WR are the most predictable. I usually like to grab a clear RB1 if in the top 7 and then pounce on top WR... stocking my bench with a ton of high upside backups RBs.

Of course it depends who else is available at 24, yet it would be hard pressed to find better value at that point of a snake draft.

BTW -- oh let me count the myriad of reasons why auction drafts are simply better than snake drafts.


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 Post subject: Re: Would you take Manning @ #24?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2009 2:02 pm 
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In all of my real (not mock) drafts QBs have been going way earlier than I had anticipated and I basically punted all the top end QBs and took Garrard/Flacco types later.

Manning hasn't made it back to 24 in my three real drafts...not saying he won't. I had been targeting A-Rod at the 48/49 spot but he hasn't made it there either.

Just an FYI

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 Post subject: Re: Would you take Manning @ #24?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2009 5:40 pm 
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Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:35 pm
Posts: 91
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
I have seen QBs overvalued in every draft I have been in so far.... unreal really. In my home auction ($200) keeper ($3 QB increase, $8 RB, $4 WR) league (2 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, flex, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D/st) the prices for QBs was absolutely ridiculous. Brees went for $43... SJax went for $45.

The point difference between the top 5 QB and replacement level is far, FAR less than the top 5 WR and replacement level.
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Owners that are overvaluing QBs with their early picks are going to have holes open up in their rosters by week 2-4. As such a sound strategy could be to wait until Round 6-8 to draft two QBs (Schaub, Palmer, Garrard... or even Campbell, Hasselbeck, etc.). The difference between your top QB after week 3 and the owner of a Brady, Manning or Brees will be less than the difference between your RB2 and their RB2.

As such, one could pounce after week 3 with trade offers of your top QB and RB2 or WR3 for Brees and a high risk/reward bench player.

Just a thought.


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