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 Post subject: 10 Team ESPN PPR League. All RBs all the time.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:17 am 
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Posts: 21
This is the first year we're drafting, but next year we will keep 2.

I drafted this team last weekend, and I thought it was the by far the best team. However, I've got a couple of concerns.

My RBs are definitely the best in the league, but my WRs aren't great. I have to rely on T.Y Hilton to put up points. I have a lot of faith in him, but he's still not starting.

Also, I noticed that the top 10 WRs put up more points than the top 10 RBs, and I'm worried that teams with multiple elite WRs will outscore me.

Am I being silly? Any other thoughts on the draft?

QB RGIII
RB 1 Doug Martin
RB 2 Forte
Flex Sproles
WR 1 Colston
WR 2 T.Y Hilton
TE Zach Sudfeld
Def/ST Bears
K Hartley

BE Lamar Miller
BE Daryl Richardson
BE Bryce Brown
BE Kenbrell Thompkins
BE Vick
BE Gronkowski
BE Josh Gordon


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 Post subject: Re: 10 Team ESPN PPR League. All RBs all the time.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:39 am 
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I'd need to know your settings to judge. No way in a regular PPR that the top 10 WRs outscored the top 10 RBs last year (i.e. AP was not outscored by Julio Jones last year, unless you're exaggerating).

Colston is always underrated. Finishes as a top 15 WR seemingly every year but gets drafted/treated like he's a low end WR2; I like TY, should be fine. You'll get Gordon back in two weeks, he can be your WR2 if Hilton busts. When Gronk comes back, you're gonna have more then enough to make up for any WR deficiencies you think you have. I have zero problems with your team; you have depth at the hardest position to keep healthy. Should be competitive.

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Sky Sperling is a contributor for Razzball Football and Razzball Baseball. He’s also a lover of fine beer, fine women and fine-toothed combs. You can follow him on twitter @Sky_Razzball and in your most sweetest of dreams.


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 Post subject: Re: 10 Team ESPN PPR League. All RBs all the time.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:58 pm 
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Joined: Mon Mar 15, 2010 9:42 pm
Posts: 21
Thanks a lot for the quick reply and thoughtful analysis, I really appreciate it.

To my knowledge, it's a standard PPR league.

The point values of the top 10 RBs combined last year in our league was 2614, broken down as follows:
AP: 337
Doug Martin: 297
Arian Foster: 288
Ray Rice: 268
Marshawn: 257
Spiller: 242
Morris: 241
Richardson: 239
Charles: 227
Gore: 218

The top 10 WRs combined was 2888:
Calvin: 336
Marshall: 328
Dez: 293
AJ Green: 291
Andre: 288
Demaryius Thomas: 285
Wes Welker: 281
Reggie Wayne: 264
Roddy White: 261
Eric Decker: 261

The lack of depth at RB means the drop off after the top 10 is more severe, so the hope is I can outscore my opponents' mid-level RBs more than my WRs get outscored (assuming they don't pan out well) by the teams with top receivers.

In the draft, I took 3 RBs before I took a receiver. I felt I couldn't pass up Sproles in a PPR as late as I got him. However, had I taken Demaryius Thomas there, my number 2 WR would have been Colston, and Lamar Miller / TY Hilton could have been my flex. Since DT should score more points than Sproles, albeit at a deeper position, I'd have a higher projected points total.

Obviously, this is heavily reliant on last year statistics, and injuries can change everything, but is there truth to my assessment, or do you think I made the right call with Sproles at a thinner, injury-prone position?


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 Post subject: Re: 10 Team ESPN PPR League. All RBs all the time.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:00 pm 
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Ah ok as a total. I was like, 'there's no way AP didn't finish above a few of those guys!'. I getcha now.

The big thing to note is Colston finished around 11th or 13th on that list and I don't think he was that much farther behind the lower end guys. He's an underrated 1 you can pair with someone else and have it work out just fine.

I'd rather take depth at RB over WR every week. Puts you in the drivers seat for both matchups and for potential trades later down the road.

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Sky Sperling is a contributor for Razzball Football and Razzball Baseball. He’s also a lover of fine beer, fine women and fine-toothed combs. You can follow him on twitter @Sky_Razzball and in your most sweetest of dreams.


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 Post subject: Re: 10 Team ESPN PPR League. All RBs all the time.
PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:06 am 
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Posts: 21
Just thought it would be interesting to follow up on this.

The team is currently 5-6, which is 6th in the league. The way the league is structured, I'll probably make the playoffs, but we'll see how it goes from there.

The team looks a lot different now than it did on draft day, and it's had a mixture of good luck and bad luck. I think a bit more bad luck. This is the updated squad:

QB Robert Griffin III, Wsh QB
RB Matt Forte, Chi RB
RB Eddie Lacy, GB RB
RB/WR Pierre Garcon, Wsh WR
WR T.Y. Hilton, Ind WR
WR Josh Gordon, Cle WR
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE TE
D/ST Texans D/ST D/ST
K Mason Crosby, GB K
Bench Darren Sproles, NO RB
Bench Marques Colston, NO WR
Bench Julius Thomas, Den TE
Bench Zac Stacy, StL RB
Bench Jarrett Boykin, GB WR
Bench Chris Ogbonnaya, Cle RB
Bench Bobby Rainey, TB RB

In hindsight, I think it was a big mistake to go Sproles over a #1 WR in the draft. Not just because Sproles hasn't met expectations. I think analysts' freakish obsession with the RB position (even more so than usual) was overblown.

Had I gone with Brandon Marshall with my 3rd pick, it would have given me more flexibility; my flex wouldn't have been clogged by RBs. Also, Marshall was just flat out expected to score more points than Sproles in a PPR league, even if he had lived up to expectations. I think when we talk a lot about draft day strategy before the season, we forget that the object of the game is to score the most points. And top tier players are a lot more valuable than depth in fantasy football-- I think more so than other fantasy sports. (As evidenced by the fact that I couldn't get a trade done for a top receiver, no matter how many #2s I offered). In addition, my decisions week to week are really tough.

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10 Team Mixed 5X5 H2H 5 Keepers

C: Gattis
1B: Goldschmidt
2B: Rendon
3B: Beltre
SS: Alexi Ramirez
OF: Puig
OF: Wil Myers
OF: Alex Rios
UTIL: Votto

BN: Dee Gordon
BN: Kyle Seager

SP: Wacha
SP: Tehran
SP: Gray
RP: Rosenthal
RP: Uehara
P: Soria
P: Farnsworth

BN: Ventura
BN: Eovaldi
BN: Peralta

DL: Janssen
DL: Anibal Sanchez


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 Post subject: Re: 10 Team ESPN PPR League. All RBs all the time.
PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 12:00 pm 
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The flipside to your argument, though, is you had Josh Gordon & TY Hilton. Gordon has been, for all intents and purposes, a top 10/15 WR since his return. Also, TY has gotten a nudge since Wayne went down and is in the same spectrum. Third, guys like Cooper and Keenan were out there on waivers for the taking. And another big thing: Sproles' decline was severe this year. He was a 75-80 catch RB2 coming into the year on most people's radar. It's hard to hindsight on subjects like this. Darren has been dinged up and underutilized within his offense. I don't think the loss would've been as severe for your team had he been remotely close to where he'd been in the last couple of years. That said, the league has changed and most likely rankings will to with future years. I see a lot more WRs going in the first 2 to 3 rounds than in year's past in 2014 due to the league becoming more and more pass-heavy as time wears on.

_________________
Sky Sperling is a contributor for Razzball Football and Razzball Baseball. He’s also a lover of fine beer, fine women and fine-toothed combs. You can follow him on twitter @Sky_Razzball and in your most sweetest of dreams.


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 Post subject: Re: 10 Team ESPN PPR League. All RBs all the time.
PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 12:20 pm 
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Joined: Mon Mar 15, 2010 9:42 pm
Posts: 21
I think you're right, for the most part. If Sproles had been good, my pick would have seemed less wrong, but I think it was wrong nonetheless. If Sproles and Marshall did the exact same things as they did last year, Marshall still would've been the better choice given that I went RB / RB in the first two rounds.

I don't think people talked enough about WR safety during this year's draft manifestos (if that's a word). Top 10 WRs don't fluctuate as much as the top 10 RBs (they get injured less, and, as a whole, they score more). In the early rounds, I think it's important to go safe.

Lastly, it follows that, with more volatility at RB, there are a lot more waiver wire options and potential breakouts, which should make RBs less attractive than WRs to draft early.

_________________
10 Team Mixed 5X5 H2H 5 Keepers

C: Gattis
1B: Goldschmidt
2B: Rendon
3B: Beltre
SS: Alexi Ramirez
OF: Puig
OF: Wil Myers
OF: Alex Rios
UTIL: Votto

BN: Dee Gordon
BN: Kyle Seager

SP: Wacha
SP: Tehran
SP: Gray
RP: Rosenthal
RP: Uehara
P: Soria
P: Farnsworth

BN: Ventura
BN: Eovaldi
BN: Peralta

DL: Janssen
DL: Anibal Sanchez


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 Post subject: Re: 10 Team ESPN PPR League. All RBs all the time.
PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 1:20 pm 
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Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2012 9:42 am
Posts: 1716
That's fair and can see that argument. But while Marshall has come close to matching his output from last year, you could've also been stuck with Julio (injured) or Dez (inconsistent underperforming). That's why I'm saying hindsight is hard to do because it negates some other factors. But in terms of process, yes I can see your stance having validity.

I do think we'll see a dramatic shift in draft day manifestos in 2014. I for one won't be turning down top end WR production early on in drafts with the trend in place at RB being pretty clear at this point unless the NFL modifies more rules that would negate the recent QB/WR gain.

_________________
Sky Sperling is a contributor for Razzball Football and Razzball Baseball. He’s also a lover of fine beer, fine women and fine-toothed combs. You can follow him on twitter @Sky_Razzball and in your most sweetest of dreams.


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