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 Post subject: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 11:55 am 
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Posts: 606
So Yahoo has started fantasy football, a little early I'd say. In fact, it's real early! Anyways, here are the settings (this is only my 2nd fantasy football season)

16 teams, H2H
Roster Positions: QB, QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, K, DEF, DL, DL, LB, BN, BN, BN, BN

Offense
Passing Yards 25 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns 6
Interceptions -2
Rushing Yards 10
Rushing Touchdowns 6
Reception Yards 10 yards per point
Reception Touchdowns 6
Return Yards 20 yards per poin
Return Touchdowns 6
2-Point Conversions 2
Fumbles Lost -2
Offensive Fumble Return TD 6
Kickers
Field Goals 0-19 Yards 2
Field Goals 20-29 Yards 3
Field Goals 30-39 Yards 3
Field Goals 40-49 Yards 4
Field Goals 50+ Yards 5
Point After Attempt Made 1
Defense/Special Teams
Sack 1
Interception 2
Fumble Recovery 2
Touchdown 6
Safety 2
Block Kick 5
Points Allowed 0 points 10
Points Allowed 1-6 points 7
Points Allowed 7-13 points 4
Points Allowed 14-20 points 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points 0
Points Allowed 28-34 points -1
Points Allowed 35+ points -4
Defensive Players
Tackle Solo .5
Sack 2
Interception 2
Fumble Recovery 2
Defensive Touchdown 6
Safety 2
Pass Defended .5
Block Kick 4

How would any one of you approach this draft? 2 starting QB, so heavy emphasis on QB? Any tips would be great!


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 Post subject: Re: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 9:34 pm 
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I think in that league as a deep as it is I still wouldn't look at a QB until the second or maybe third round.

My priority list would be RB, QB, WR, everything else. I wouldn't do a damn thing until I had 6 rounds of 2 QB, 2-3 RB, 1-2 WR.


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 Post subject: Re: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 6:35 am 
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Makes sense. So maybe I should just approach it by taking the best available player at the time for the first few rounds, and not concentrate on specific positions. Would it be smart to grab an elite TE in such a deep league? Or just wait it out and hopefully pick up a break out TE during the season? I think it's easier to pick up break out RB or WR than TE.


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 Post subject: Re: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 8:01 am 
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TE, no matter how elite, won't give you the numbers of a solid QB or RB. At any point in the season there will be a ton of starting TE on the waiver wire in your league. Can you say that about RB or QB? You won't have a super productive TE but better that than a QB who's last in the league and can hurt your overall numbers.

With this current crop of TE who do you feel would be worth picking in the first 6 rounds?


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 Post subject: Re: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:45 pm 
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First 6 rounds is 96 picks in a 16 team league so I'd definitely see these TE going...

Antonio Gates
Tony Gonzalez
Jason Witten
Dallas Clark

Could Go..

Kellen Winslow
Chris Cooley
Owen Daniels


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 Post subject: Re: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 9:20 pm 
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If this were my draft I'd be zigging trying to grab top WRs. You can start 4 WRs a week and could really show your dominance in that grouping if you try.


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 Post subject: Re: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 9:50 pm 
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This is a good tool for projections. I don't like their in-season analysis but they do pretty well with rankings.

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/2009/ ... yer_pos=TE

In standard leagues you would see better projected point production from:

29 running backs
12 wide receivers
28 quarterbacks

That's 69 players total with higher projections than Jason Witten (the highest ranked TE). So yeah, if you want a top flight TE you're going to have to pony up a 4th or 5th round pick. It all comes down to position scarcity. If you feel like you need a TE then draft one. I prefer to stream my TE against defenses with weak pass rushing and a weak linebacking corps. It's also going to come down to your draft. If the top tight ends go early I'd say screw it. If Witten or Gates is out there in the fifth round then make your move. I still think my first four picks would be 2 RB and 2 QB. And I'd always flex a RB instead of a WR.

Plug your numbers in and see what you come up with.


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 Post subject: Re: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 5:20 am 
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Thanks for the advice. This is what came out when I plugged all my numbers in...

1 Peyton Manning QB IND 6 33 11 2273
2 Tom Brady QB NE 8 31 8 2250
3 Drew Brees QB NO 5 30 8 2215
4 Philip Rivers Contract Year Player QB SD 5 27 5 1933
5 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 9 24 2 1899
6 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAX 7 24 3 1828
7 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 5 25 4 1796
8 Steven Jackson RB STL 9 25 5 1734
9 Tony Romo QB DAL 6 29 5 1713
10 Matt Forte RB CHI 5 23 1 1682
11 Kurt Warner QB ARI 4 37 10 1661
12 Michael Turner RB ATL 4 27 5 1661
13 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR 4 26 3 1541
14 Donovan McNabb QB PHI 4 33 10 1520
15 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 4 25 5 1490
16 Frank Gore RB SF 6 26 4 1474
17 Chris Johnson RB TEN 7 23 1 1409
18 Jay Cutler QB CHI 5 26 3 1360
19 Ladainian Tomlinson RB SD 5 29 8 1360
20 Randy Moss WR NE 8 32 11 1263
21 Matt Ryan QB ATL 4 24 1 1254
22 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 8 27 5 1247
23 Clinton Portis RB WAS 8 27 7 1208
24 Steve Slaton RB HOU 10 23 1 1150
25 Andre Johnson WR HOU 10 27 6 1148
26 Carson Palmer QB CIN 8 29 6 1115
27 Brian Westbrook RB PHI 4 29 7 1112
28 Ronnie Brown Contract Year Player RB MIA 6 27 4 1107
29 Reggie Wayne WR IND 6 30 8 1098
30 Matt Hasselbeck QB SEA 7 33 10 1085
31 Marshawn Lynch RB BUF 9 23 2 1072
32 Calvin Johnson WR DET 7 23 2 1055
33 Roddy White Contract Year Player WR ATL 4 27 4 1037
34 Brandon Jacobs RB NYG 10 26 4 1032
35 Kevin Smith RB DET 7 22 1 1030
36 Reggie Bush RB NO 5 24 3 1024
37 Thomas Jones RB NYJ 9 30 9 1020
38 Anquan Boldin WR ARI 4 28 6 1017
39 Greg Jennings Contract Year Player WR GB 5 25 3 1013
40 Marion Barber RB DAL 6 25 4 1003
41 Joseph Addai RB IND 6 26 3 995
42 Matt Cassel Contract Year Player QB KC 8 27 4 988
43 Knowshon Moreno RB DEN 7 21 R 980
44 Ryan Grant RB GB 5 26 3 974
45 Marques Colston WR NO 5 26 3 963
46 Chad Pennington Contract Year Player QB MIA 6 32 8 934
47 Eli Manning Contract Year Player QB NYG 10 28 5 929
48 Kyle Orton Contract Year Player QB DEN 7 26 4 916
49 Matt Schaub QB HOU 10 27 5 910
50 Chris Wells RB ARI 4 20 R 905
51 Larry Johnson RB KC 8 29 6 898
52 Steve Smith WR CAR 4 30 7 883
53 Terrell Owens Contract Year Player WR BUF 9 35 13 852
54 Willie Parker Contract Year Player RB PIT 8 28 5 830
55 Derrick Ward Recently Updated Outlook RB TB 8 28 5 820
56 Wes Welker WR NE 8 28 5 816
57 Jamal Lewis RB CLE 9 29 8 787
58 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 4 22 1 783
59 Trent Edwards QB BUF 9 25 2 749
60 Darren McFadden RB OAK 9 21 1 731
61 David Garrard QB JAX 7 31 7 728
62 Dwayne Bowe WR KC 8 24 2 726
63 Jake Delhomme QB CAR 4 34 8 720
64 Shaun Hill QB SF 6 29 7 720
65 Jason Witten TE DAL 6 27 6 715
66 Marc Bulger QB STL 9 32 7 688
67 Braylon Edwards Contract Year Player WR CLE 9 26 4 683
68 Brandon Marshall Contract Year Player WR DEN 7 25 3 676
69 Pierre Thomas Contract Year Player RB NO 5 24 2 653
70 Julius Jones RB SEA 7 27 5 650
71 Antonio Bryant Recently Updated Outlook WR TB 8 28 7 646
72 Mark Sanchez QB NYJ 9 22 R 645
73 Chad Ochocinco WR CIN 8 31 8 643
74 Cedric Benson RB CIN 8 26 4 642
75 Roy Williams WR DAL 6 27 5 626
6 Joe Flacco QB BAL 7 24 1 608
77 Tony Gonzalez TE ATL 4 33 12 600
78 Antonio Gates TE SD 5 28 6 592
79 T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR SEA 7 31 8 574
80 Santonio Holmes WR PIT 8 25 3 572
81 Jason Campbell Contract Year Player QB WAS 8 27 4 569
82 Donald Driver WR GB 5 34 10 561
83 Kerry Collins QB TEN 7 36 14 558
84 Shonn Greene RB NYJ 9 23 R 545
85 Anthony Gonzalez WR IND 6 24 2 543
86 Lee Evans WR BUF 9 28 5 517
87 Lance Moore WR NO 5 25 4 483
88 Donnie Avery WR STL 9 24 1 463
89 Laveranues Coles WR CIN 8 31 9 451
90 Ray Rice RB BAL 7 22 1 439
91 Jerricho Cotchery WR NYJ 9 26 5 438
92 Santana Moss WR WAS 8 30 8 431
93 Vincent Jackson Contract Year Player WR SD 5 26 4 430
94 DeSean Jackson WR PHI 4 22 1 427
95 Brady Quinn QB CLE 9 24 2 425
96 Torry Holt WR JAX 7 33 10 423
97 Donald Brown RB IND 6 22 R 420
98 Bernard Berrian WR MIN 9 28 5 416
99 Dallas Clark TE IND 6 29 6 385
100 JaMarcus Russell QB OAK 9 23 2 369


I think with first pick overall, someone definitely wouldn't be taking Peyton Manning. I'd say a QB gets taken in my league around 10th overall. If I remember correctly, last year in the same draft, Brady got taken 9th overall - and that was after his ridiculous season. So maybe a QB won't even be taken in the first round this time around? What are your thoughts?
BTW, thanks for all the input, Paper Tiger! Very helpful. Much appreciated.


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 Post subject: Re: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Tue Jun 09, 2009 9:30 am 
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You're welcome. I'm prepping for my drafts as well so anything I come across I'll gladly share. As far as drafting a QB in round 1, I'm not a fan. In your league though, having to start two QB adds so much to their value. I'll always be looking for a RB in round one, but it depends on your draft position (which I'm assuming you don't know already). If you have a late pick and your choices are say Brian Westbrook, Peyton Manning or Andre Johnson, I'd be inclined to grab a best available QB. It will likely start a run at the end of the first, beginning of the second round allowing you to bookend a top flight QB with a RB2 or better. Because your league has 16 teams and is fairly deep, teams are going to have weak spots. It's inevitable. My advice would be to not let the skills positions be the weak spots on your team. If anything, overload because there will be teams struggling to find consistent starters on a week to week basis.

If your league still refuses to acknowledge the value of QB's then there are far worse things than trotting Peyton and Tom Brady out there every week. I wouldn't make it a point to target QB's but I think you have to draft where the value is. Common misconceptions about the value and scarcity of positions can go a long way toward helping you win the league. In your league I think my ideal first six rounds would be:

Round 1: Tier one RB
Round 2: Tier one QB
Round 3: Tier two RB
Round 4: Tier two QB
Round 5: Tier three RB, Tier two WR (if available)
Round 6: Depending on your previous pick RB or WR

In a standard 12 team 1 QB league I'd pick like this:

Round 1: RB
Round 2: RB
Round 3: QB/WR
Round 4: WR/QB
Round 5: RB
Round 6: WR

Obviously every league is different and picks never fall the way you want. However, I've never seen a team with a solid core of skills position players do poorly in any format (unless they were just blasted with injuries).


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 Post subject: Re: League Draft Help
PostPosted: Tue Jun 09, 2009 9:34 am 
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