Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

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snky allgtr
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Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby snky allgtr » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:52 pm

You've got a lot of unproven/injured RB on your team. I wouldn't throw away any matches.

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Pacochu
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Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby Pacochu » Tue Sep 04, 2012 9:10 am

I just don't see the reasoning here. I'll take a win over the possibility of some random free-agent blowing up in weeks 1 or 2. You are not just giving yourself a loss, but you are giving your opponent a win. That isn't fair to the other teams in the league and is not in the spirit of the game.


12 Team, Non-PPR, Standard scoring, bonuses for yardage totals
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, Def, K

Brady, Tannehill
A. Peterson, R. Mathews, P. Thomas, F. Jackson, D. Sproles
A. Jeffrey, P. Garcon, K. Wright, B. Cooks, H. Nicks, G. Jennings
G. Olsen
Novak
Streamer Def - Currently NYJ


Heraldo
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Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby Heraldo » Tue Sep 04, 2012 9:36 am

@snky allgtr and @Pacochu, I think the mentality I'm taking with this strategy is "go big or home." If one win is going to determine whether or not I make the playoffs, I probably won't have a great shot of winning in the first place. I want to win it all and as Ricky Bobby said "If you ain't first, you're last."

Basically, Fantasy Football is so luck based, I wanted to remove one or two variables from the equations (Those being the results from Weeks 1/2) and see if that benefits my team. If I go 4-9, it really would not have mattered what I did during the first week.

The real point of comparison is, could my player addition be worth "more than one win" or would it be worth the opportunity cost? And I'd say "yes" that the loss is more than worth the opportunity cost of a pick-up, as @snky allgtr pointed out, my RB's are unproven/recently reported/injured, if I catch a break and am able to pick-up a potential RB1 or even RB2, the value of that player's points over the season + potential for additional wins is more than worth it.

Also, @Pacochu's point about this strategy isn't "fair to the other teams in the league and is not in the spirit of the game" is a very legitimate point. I definitely don't want to unfairly help my opponent or jeopardize the league. And am legitimately concerned that I didn't even think of this reason before considering to go forward with my losing strategy. However, "one-sided trades" are just as "not in the spirit of the game" and as is the case with my strategy are technically allowed within the "letter of the law".

Ultimately, Fantasy Football is supposed to be fun. I'm not ruining anyone else's fun, just trying to increase the odds for my own.

Heraldo
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Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby Heraldo » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:07 am

So, unless A.J. Green scores 30+ points, I have successfully secured the #1 waiver position. Either way, I could not have won Week 1 based on my opponent's score.

So, now that a majority of the games have been played.
Here a list of top-5 scorers (Non-QB, Kicker, or Defenses) in my league (Standard ESPN Scoring).
Kevin Ogletree, Dal WR - 23.4
Alfred Morris, Wsh RB - 21.6
Stephen Hill, NYJ WR - 20.9
James Jones, GB WR - 14.1
Cecil Shorts, Jac WR - 13.4
Others scoring over 7 points: (Andre Roberts, Brandon LaFell, Marcedes Lewis, Aldrick Robinson, Brandon Gibson, Heath Miller, Donald Jones, Shaun Draughn, Martellus Bennett, Scott Chandler, Donnie Avery, Kevin Boss, Owen Daniels, Dexter McCluster, Coby Fleener, Clay Harbor, Knowshon Moreno.)

My eye immediately goes to Alfred Morris being the only RB on the list. I dealt with Helu last year and said I'd do everything to avoid the Redskins RBBC as did most everyone else in our league, thus why Morris went undrafted and not picked up despite being named the starter. My Running backs did okay this week, but another solid option wouldn't hurt. Additionally, since Running backs are inherently more valuable I think he'll be my waiver wire pick unless something surprising happens tonight (Read: Injury).

My next choices would be Stephen Hill, James Jones, and then Kevin Ogletree. The question with all three would be consistency and longevity. (as to be expected with Week 1 performances).

Since C.J. Spiller was rostered, I did not fall into the guaranteed consistency of a starting running back, but amongst those top-5 players, I think there is the potential for at least a starter for the remainder of the season (most likely Flex, but Starter nonetheless).

This is not a viable strategy every year or week, but it has potential and I'm pretty happy with my team after Week 1 regardless of my Waiver Wire pick-up.

So, I know this wasn't the most popular idea, but have I changed anyone's mind? Or am I an idiot for passing up the chance for a Week 1 win?
Last edited by Heraldo on Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
10 Team Standard Redraft League (1/1/2/1/1 Roster)
QB: Carson Palmer
RB: Jamaal Charles
RB/WR: Andre Ellington
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Antonio Brown
WR/TE: Mike Wallace
TE: Travis Kelce
Bench: Alshon Jeffrey
Bench: Roddy White
Bench: Jeremy Hill
Bench: Knile Davis
Bench: Kyle Rudolph
Bench: Josh Gordon

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Sky
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Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby Sky » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:23 am

Heraldo wrote:So, unless A.J. Green scores 30+ points, I have successfully secured the #1 waiver position. Unfortunately, I could have won Week 1 based on my opponent's score and the number of points I left on my bench. But I can't change that now. I intentionally lost week 1.

So, now that a majority of the games have been played.
Here a list of top-5 scorers (Non-QB, Kicker, or Defenses) in my league (Standard ESPN Scoring).
Kevin Ogletree, Dal WR - 23.4
Alfred Morris, Wsh RB - 21.6
Stephen Hill, NYJ WR - 20.9
James Jones, GB WR - 14.1
Cecil Shorts, Jac WR - 13.4
Others scoring over 7 points: (Andre Roberts, Brandon LaFell, Marcedes Lewis, Aldrick Robinson, Brandon Gibson, Heath Miller, Donald Jones, Shaun Draughn, Martellus Bennett, Scott Chandler, Donnie Avery, Kevin Boss, Owen Daniels, Dexter McCluster, Coby Fleener, Clay Harbor, Knowshon Moreno.)

My eye immediately goes to Alfred Morris being the only RB on the list. I dealt with Helu last year and said I'd do everything to avoid the Redskins RBBC as did most everyone else in our league, thus why Morris went undrafted and not picked up despite being named the starter. My Running backs did okay this week, but another solid option wouldn't hurt. Additionally, since Running backs are inherently more valuable I think he'll be my waiver wire pick unless something surprising happens tonight (Read: Injury).

My next choices would be Stephen Hill, James Jones, and then Kevin Ogletree. The question with all three would be consistency and longevity. (as to be expected with Week 1 performances).

Since C.J. Spiller was rostered, I did not fall into the guaranteed consistency of a starting running back, but amongst those top-5 players, I think there is the potential for at least a starter for the remainder of the season (most likely Flex, but Starter nonetheless).

This is not a viable strategy every year or week, but it has potential and I'm pretty happy with my team after Week 1 regardless of my Waiver Wire pick-up.

So, I know this wasn't the most popular idea, but have I changed anyone's mind? Or am I an idiot for passing up a Week 1 win?


Not gonna call you names but if you tanked week one to pick up a Redskin RBBC, I wouldn't necessarily call the strategy a success. I'd lean Stephen Hill, though I feel his outburst had more to do with the Bills defense than the team he plays for. Looks like the Jets found their Plaxico replacement.
Sky Sperling is a contributor for Razzball Football and Razzball Baseball. He’s also a lover of fine beer, fine women and fine-toothed combs. You can follow him on twitter @Sky_Razzball and in your most sweetest of dreams.

Heraldo
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2012 1:35 pm

Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby Heraldo » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:30 am

I recounted, I actually had no shot of winning Week 1 :oops: . So, I made edits to the post up above. All I really did was improve my waiver position from 3 to 1. Now I definitely look unintelligent for not being able to properly do math. My bad.
10 Team Standard Redraft League (1/1/2/1/1 Roster)
QB: Carson Palmer
RB: Jamaal Charles
RB/WR: Andre Ellington
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Antonio Brown
WR/TE: Mike Wallace
TE: Travis Kelce
Bench: Alshon Jeffrey
Bench: Roddy White
Bench: Jeremy Hill
Bench: Knile Davis
Bench: Kyle Rudolph
Bench: Josh Gordon

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snky allgtr
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Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby snky allgtr » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:56 am

I'd be surprised if any of those guys were worth intentionally losing for (I know you would've lost anyway, but that's beside the point). Although I did grab Morris in one league myself...
12 Team NFL.com non-PPR, pass TD =6

qb Wilson
rb McCoy
rb Bernard
wr Colston
wr S. Johnson
te Cook
flex J. Gordon
d/st Jets
k Dawson

bn Tannehill, S. Jackson, Decker, Jones-Drew, Hilton, McGahee


12 Team ESPN Standard non-PPR

qb Brees
rb S. Jackson
rb Bradshaw
wr Cobb
wr Garcon
te Cook
flex D. Richardson
flex P. Thomas
d/st Jets
k Hartley

bn Gronkowski, Decker, Bernard, J. Franklin, Tannehill, McGahee, Turbin, Heyward-Bey

Heraldo
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2012 1:35 pm

Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby Heraldo » Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:09 pm

Okay, now I'm in an awkward spot.

I dropped the Jets Defense to pick up Ryan Williams operating under the assumption that I'd be able to pull off a 2-for-1 trade this week.

No one is biting despite my best efforts.

Do I hold onto Williams and leave my defense spot empty for the week? Or do I drop someone? who?

Thanks.
10 Team Standard Redraft League (1/1/2/1/1 Roster)
QB: Carson Palmer
RB: Jamaal Charles
RB/WR: Andre Ellington
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Antonio Brown
WR/TE: Mike Wallace
TE: Travis Kelce
Bench: Alshon Jeffrey
Bench: Roddy White
Bench: Jeremy Hill
Bench: Knile Davis
Bench: Kyle Rudolph
Bench: Josh Gordon

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Sky
Posts: 1716
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2012 9:42 am

Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby Sky » Fri Sep 28, 2012 7:09 am

Try shopping the Ahmad owner Brown+another guy. You have a couple of days. Stick with the trade route. You don't really have anyone droppable on your team now but if you had to pick...Eh, maybe Andre Brown?
Sky Sperling is a contributor for Razzball Football and Razzball Baseball. He’s also a lover of fine beer, fine women and fine-toothed combs. You can follow him on twitter @Sky_Razzball and in your most sweetest of dreams.

Heraldo
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2012 1:35 pm

Re: Genius or Crazy? (Intentionally Losing the First 2 Weeks)

Postby Heraldo » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:59 pm

So, I thought I'd update this post just for closure sake.

My pick-up of Alfred Morris did pay dividends resulting in my first Championship.

I made a couple trades later in the season and things definitely broke my way, but I considering my league setup, losing Week 1 helped my team tremendously.

So, I'm going to officially declare the strategy: Genius!


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