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 Post subject: Pros/Cons of drafting a QB with one of your top 2 picks
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 8:52 am 
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So for 6 years now, I have been the type to wait until rounds 7-10 or so for a QB, and I have NEVER won a fantasy football league.

Week in, and week out I get beat by the guys who having Peyton, Brees, etc.

So this year, I am thinking of grabbing Rodgers or Brees, in that order, in the mid/late first round.

Anyone want to share some thoughts?


I am in a PPR league so I thought about going QB-RB-WR and might land the following

Rodgers
Turner
Roddy

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 Post subject: Re: Pros/Cons of drafting a QB with one of your top 2 picks
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 12:18 pm 
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You know my stance on grabbing a QB in the first few rounds, but I can see where you are wanting to change things up. But instead of grabbing Rodgers in round 1 I would at least grab a stud RB/WR in the first and then go for Brees/Manning. The chances are very slim that you'll get Turner in the second round. His ADP is 7. And Roddy's is 21. Brees is 15, Peyton is 22 and Romo is 37. Those would be my targets if you want to set and forget a stud QB.

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 Post subject: Re: Pros/Cons of drafting a QB with one of your top 2 picks
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:48 pm 
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Yeh, I suppose. It is just that every year I have a plan, to snag Brees or Manning in round 2 and boom! There they go at picks 8 & 9, it happens every year and I say wow, these owners are nit wits, then they end up beating me twice through the year with there 1st round QB pick.

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 Post subject: Re: Pros/Cons of drafting a QB with one of your top 2 picks
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:58 pm 
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sometimes depending on how the stats are in your league the QBs can be favored more than RBs and WRs, I would check into that, I do agree with Doc that I never go QB in first round, but in one league I am in with some friends as just a fun league the stats are more weighted for the QBs so a first round QB isn't out of the question

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 Post subject: Re: Pros/Cons of drafting a QB with one of your top 2 picks
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:21 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Pros/Cons of drafting a QB with one of your top 2 picks
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 6:59 pm 
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My league favors QBs but I just use that to my advantage going RB heavy in the first few rounds and then still go for the good not great QBs later. With the current setup, I've finished 1st and 2nd the last two years with that strategy.

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 Post subject: Re: Pros/Cons of drafting a QB with one of your top 2 picks
PostPosted: Mon Jul 12, 2010 1:27 am 
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Last year was not very good evidence that you should've taken a QB in the 1st round.

If you had Rodgers, Favre, Schaub, Romo, Brady, Rivers or Roethlisberger, then you did not get spanked by the guys who took Peyton or Brees in the 1st round. And if your playoffs involved weeks 16 and 17, Peyton and Brees were not the guys to own. So if the guys who took them last year won your league, it was in spite of those picks, not because of them.

You get yourself into trouble by locking into a definite strategy like QB-RB-WR. The point is that in the tenth round, you can find a QB that is the guaranteed starter on his team, and is pretty likely to get you 75-80% of the value of any other QB (all but Rodgers last year). But if you need a starting RB in the 10th round, you're very likely ending up with Jerious Norwood or Ernest Graham or Leron McClain. The QBs at least you know are starting. The RB/WRs might be complete busts. You're better off with Kyle Orton/Ryan Grant than with Peyton Manning/Chester Taylor.

In your league, the spread between the top QBs and bottom QBs is greater, and the QB who ends up with the huge year is really valuable, so maybe you adjust this strategy. If waiting till the 10th means you're definitely starting Ryan Fitzpatrick, then sure, take a QB earlier. And give yourself a shot at having the QB that has a career year and leaves everyone in the dust (it won't be Kyle Orton). But you still don't reach. Three QBs had more TDs than Rodgers last year. Three QBs had more passing yards than Rodgers. If Rodgers gets his bell rung in the preseason, maybe he doesn't run for a bunch of TDs this year. Peyton had 3 more fantasy points than Schaub last year, 5 more than Romo. Would you rather have ended up with Steven Jackson/Tom Brady or Drew Brees/Clinton Portis? The rule is not "never take a QB before the 7th round". If last season I was staring down Portis, Westbrook, and Lynch, I'd definitely grab Peyton or Brees (I'd actually almost certainly take a WR, but you get the point), because I hated those guys where they were going. And if Rivers falls, and it's between him and Ben Tate, then sure grab him, don't take the question mark because you've got your heart set on Henne in the 12th or something. But generally you should let the QBs fall if there are stud WR/RBs available, especially in the 1st round. The monster RB seasons are probably going to be from the 1st rounders, but the monster QB season is often not from the 1 or 2 guy that people take early.


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 Post subject: Re: Pros/Cons of drafting a QB with one of your top 2 picks
PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:56 am 
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I'm in a redraft this year that will be a keeper league for the next five years. So this is my only shot to draft Manning, Brees, Rodgers, and Brady for a while. In mocks I've done I have seen Brady/Romo slip to the third or fourth. I'd rather go that route than take Manning/Brees/Rodgers in the first/early second. Although Manning's super human ability to not get injured makes him a big consideration.


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