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Thought I would take a stab at providng one measure for upside. What better way than to begin by comparing players at their PROVEN BEST? Began by selecting 90 players (not a magic number) that had my interest and/or seemed to be of interest to commenters. The following compares each player's HOTTEST 50 consecutive games played for 2009. So, this is a TRUE measure, in that it isn't based on speculation. These numbers reflect real performance. Why 50? Seems as if roughly one-third of their seasons is a significant representation. It is consecutive so as to reduce the likelihood that a player was just up against soft pitching.
METHODOLOGY:
Perused each player's game log. Monthly tabulations easily indicated HOT streaks. Selected a group that seemed encompassing and then expanded/retracted to get to the 50 with the most productive results. Games 'not played' were simply dropped so as to have a full slate of 50 games for each player. Averaged each player's cumulative stats for 5X5 standard roto: R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG. Entered each player's line to a spreadsheet. Sorted and ranked each category. Averaged the five rankings to come up with overall rankings. (Note: I suppressed R and AVG to reflect that they had a much lower range of difference in performance than HR, RBI, and SB. Runs had a high of 43, low of 16, with 45 players from 34 to 39 Runs. It didn't seem appropriate to assign a rank of '7' to a 34 and '52' to 39. The difference of only five runs doesn't impact roto standing that dramatically. So, I suppressed that category to a range of 59, instead of 90.)
OF INTEREST:
SB: high-30, low-0, avg-6. Crawford top.
HR: high-22, low-1, avg-10. A.Gonzalez top.
RBI: high-59, low-7, avg-30. Howard top.
AVG: high-.401, low-.213, avg-.321. Ichiro top.
Be aware that catchers' performance is based on 50 games played. The totals do not reflect the fact that many catchers do not play a full slate of games. Again, the attempt is to provide a comparative measure of performance of players for their 50 hottest consecutive games played.
Some players did not play full seasons. In fact, this may have been their first partial season. So, their 50 games may not reflect the best of when they are on a hot streak. You may choose to bump them up even further.
DON'T TAKE THIS AS THE END-ALL:
It is extremely unlikely that NOT ONE player will produce for a full year the production from his 2009 Hot 50. Nevertheless, this list does give you a comparison of players at their peak performances.
The #1 ranked player, Torii Hunter, indeed started the year aflame, 40/14/46/11/.330. Of course, he got injured and one may/may not have faith in his ability to produce for a full 2010.
Will Rajai Davis bat .358 with 87 SB over the course of 2010? (his Hot numbers extended)
What if a player couldn't hit lefties and was benched for those games? (Those wouldn't be reflected in his 50.)
Will Ryan Howard steal 13 bases in 2010?
A FEW INTRIGUING COMPARISONS?:
60-Montero:29/11/38/1/.347
63-Suzuki,K:30/9/41/3/.262
74-Martinez:27/7/35/1/.328
27-Morales:37/17/53/1/.361
42-Teixeira:36/14/43/1/.320
61-Cabrera:30/11/35/2/.355
10-Utley:39/12/30/9/.306
12-Zobrist:36/12/32/8/.324
5-Reynolds:36/19/34/8/.310
13-Rodriguez:33/11/41/7/.322
34-Longoria:38/13/55/2/.332
16-Jones,G:29/16/33/7/.311
17-Braun:38/10/39/6/.330
22-Jones,A:42/11/36/4/.343
23-C.Gonzales:34/11/22/9/.321
24-McCutchen:36/10/24/10/.275
PROJECTIONS:
These are NOT projections. However, they are rankings of real performance. This will probably only make your decisions that much more difficult. You will see that several of your risky players did, indeed, perform with the big boys. The question still remains for you to decide, “How likely is it that they will reach/exceed that performance again?”
The list is provided to give you a little more data for helping to decide whether or not to take the risk on the upside of a player, or strengthen your will to pass on a player that may not be as strong as he was in prior years. Dig deeper on your targeted players to make the final call. Compare this list to ADP rankings in the spring?
RANKINGS:
TOP 13:
1-OF-Hunter:40/14/46/11/.330
2-OF-Kemp:39/13/41/12/.289
3-2B-Kinsler:39/14/38/11/.267
4-OF-Upton,J:36/12/39/9/.349
5-3B-Reynolds:36/19/34/8/.310
6-SS-Ramirez:36/10/43/9/.370
7-1B-Pujols:33/19/45/6/.338
8-SS-Rollins:39/11/33/14/.304
9-OF-Cruz:30/15/40/9/.294
10-2B-Utley:39/12/30/9/.306
11-1B-Howard:37/19/59/4/.316
12-2B-Zobrist:36/12/32/8/.324
13-3B-Rodriguez:33/11/41/7/.322
ALL 90 BY POSITION:
CATCHER:
33-Maurer:43/13/41/1/.381
60-Montero:29/11/38/1/.347
63-Suzuki,K:30/9/41/3/.262
69-Napoli:33/10/27/0/.312
73-Olivo:24/10/31/3/.256
74-Martinez:27/7/35/1/.328
84-Doumit:19/7/19/4/.254
86-Wieters:22/5/27/0/.306
88-McCann:16/5/24/2/.322
89-Martin:21/1/9/7/.269
1B:
7-Pujols:33/19/45/6/.338
11-Howard:37/19/59/4/.316
25-Youkilis:38/11/38/4/.330
27-Morales:37/17/53/1/.361
29-Fielder:37/17/51/0/.348
31-Morneau:40/14/47/0/.356
32-Lee,D:39/15/45/0/.344
35-Gonzalez:38/22/43/1/.291
42-Teixeira:36/14/43/1/.320
52-Butler:34/10/44/1/.337
56-Pena:37/16/40/0/.229
59-Votto:30/10/41/2/.362
61-Cabrera:30/11/35/2/.355
80-Davis,C:24/12/27/0/.213
2B:
3-Kinsler:39/14/38/11/.267
10-Utley:39/12/30/9/.306
12-Zobrist:36/12/32/8/.324
20-Phillips:29/9/45/7/.296
44-Roberts:34/6/25/10/.302
51-Kendrick:35/6/39/4/.372
53-Hill:32/12/37/2/.344
54-Pedroia:39/8/26/4/.319
64-Cano:31/10/30/0/.335
67-Uggla:33/11/31/1/.264
75-Barmes:28/5/30/4/.302
77-Prado:30/6/30/0/.333
90-Lopez,Fe:25/2/7/4/.309
3B:
5-Reynolds:36/19/34/8/.310
13-Rodriguez:33/11/41/7/.322
34-Longoria:38/13/55/2/.332
40-Stewart:35/10/29/5/.254
41-Zimmerman:39/15/40/2/.311
46-Beckham:33/6/38/5/.341
48-Wright:32/3/32/17/.385
55-Young:29/12/33/3/.347
57-Sandoval:26/13/41/2/.354
65-Ramirez,Aramis:26/10/38/0/.316
66-Figgins:42/1/20/11/.352
SS:
6-Ramirez,Hanley:36/10/43/9/.370
8-Rollins:39/11/33/14/.304
14-Tulowitzki:39/12/40/5/.349
15-Bartlett:37/7/32/13/.374
30-Jeter:36/7/21/11/.381
38-Ramirez,Alexei:37/8/30/5/.322
68-Cabrera,Asdrubal:38/2/27/7/.323
76-Andrus:30/2/18/13/.285
81-Drew:35/5/35/3/.312
OF:
1-Hunter:40/14/46/11/.330
2-OF-Kemp:39/13/41/12/.289
4-Upton,J:36/12/39/9/.349
9-Cruz:30/15/40/9/.294
16-Jones,G:29/16/33/7/.311
17-Braun:38/10/39/6/.330
18-Granderson:35/13/30/9/.267
19-Upton,BJ:35/7/29/24/.275
21-Beltran:34/8/35/7/.344
22-Jones,A:42/11/36/4/.343
23-Gonzalez,C:34/11/22/9/.321
24-McCutchen:36/10/24/10/.275
26-Crawford:39/6/23/30/.322
28-Diaz:26/9/32/7/.353
36-Holliday:39/12/49/2/.370
37-Davis,Rajai:38/1/33/27/.358
39-Rivera,J:35/14/47/0/.327
43-Werth:33/16/39/3/.291
45-Ethier:38/14/40/1/.310
47-Gutierrez:31/7/27/6/.328
49-Lind:33/13/43/0/.314
50-Ramirez,M:33/13/39/0/.328
58-Ellsbury:32/5/20/27/.307
62-Cuddyer:34/12/33/1/.286
70-Lee,C:22/11/37/1/.306
71-Victorino:38/4/23/7/.347
72-Span:33/2/29/5/.360
76-Choo:26/4/26/6/.313
79-Morgan,N:34/2/13/24/.384
82-Fowler:28/2/17/13/.259
83-Suzuki,I:31/4/11/13/.401
85-Coghlan:39/4/23/2/.384
87-Bruce:16/8/28/0/.221
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