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 Post subject: Re: Danks
PostPosted: Fri Apr 16, 2010 3:26 pm 
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Joined: Sat May 09, 2009 9:24 pm
Posts: 141
xFIP is meant to give you a projection of a player in a vacuum. There are some guys who can outperform it for years, but it is a good red flag indicator in general. I do look at xFIP and I still took Danks, I just wouldn't rely on him to anchor my staff. I also use the same strategy of avoiding the top pitchers(I'm in a keeper league and grabbed Greinke in round 10 last year, hence my ownership of him), but xFIP can actually help you in this strategy to spot players sporting high ERAs who may be able to improve the next year. It's not a be all/end all stat in fantasy, but it's definitely helpful especially with the strategy that you(and I) employ.

_________________
ESPN 12 team mixed points league
Max 162 starts

2 DL spots

C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Paul Konerko
2B: Howard Kendrick
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Yunel Escobar
IF: Bryan LaHair
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
OF: Jay Bruce
OF: Ryan Braun
OF: Justin Upton
Util: David Ortiz
BN: Shane Victorino (OF), Chris Davis (1B/3B), Mike Trout (OF)

SP: CC Sabathia, Matt Garza, Shaun Marcum, Yu Darvish, Ross Detwiler
RP: Steve Cishek, David Robertson, Santiago Casilla, Rafael Dolis, James Russell
DL: Kyle Farnsworth, Sergio Santos


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 Post subject: Re: Danks
PostPosted: Fri Apr 16, 2010 6:46 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 16, 2010 2:43 pm
Posts: 11
Reveries, I see you and I are both enjoying Utley at 2B. What a freakin STUD!

_________________
C - Bengie Molina
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Cliff Pennington
3B - Evan Longoria
OF - Jason Heyward
OF - Andrew McCutchen
OF - Brett Gardner
U - Migual Cabrera

SP - Tim Hudson
SP - Ben Sheets
RP - Chris Perez
RP - Ryan Perry
P - Justin Duchscherer
P - Chris Volstad
P - Dallas Braden

B - Everth Cabrera
B - Andruw Jones
B - Scott Sizemore
B - Jeff Clement
B - Sean Marshall
B - Tyler Clippard
B - Tim Stauffer
B - Peter Moylan
B - Jake Fox


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 Post subject: Re: Danks
PostPosted: Fri Apr 16, 2010 7:34 pm 
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Joined: Sat May 09, 2009 9:24 pm
Posts: 141
The Pujols/Utley combo is great. I grabbed Utley last year in round 2 when everyone was worried about the hip. Still couldn't believe he made it that far.

_________________
ESPN 12 team mixed points league
Max 162 starts

2 DL spots

C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Paul Konerko
2B: Howard Kendrick
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Yunel Escobar
IF: Bryan LaHair
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
OF: Jay Bruce
OF: Ryan Braun
OF: Justin Upton
Util: David Ortiz
BN: Shane Victorino (OF), Chris Davis (1B/3B), Mike Trout (OF)

SP: CC Sabathia, Matt Garza, Shaun Marcum, Yu Darvish, Ross Detwiler
RP: Steve Cishek, David Robertson, Santiago Casilla, Rafael Dolis, James Russell
DL: Kyle Farnsworth, Sergio Santos


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Danks
PostPosted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 8:33 am 
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Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2010 5:36 pm
Posts: 41
reveries and Ace both have some good hitters. I have to give reveries the edge at 3B though. Zimmerman is going to have a monster year. It seems he has been playing for 10 years now, but he is still only 25. The guy hits HR's even when he can pick up his leg. Longoria is going to be good too, but he is more focused on commercials right now.

reveries, I was looking at your signature and noticed your league has a 45 IP minimum. Is that supposed to be maximum? If not, what happens if you have SP's miss some starts or you don't get your 45 innings?

_________________
C - Matt Wieters
1B - Billy Butler
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Howie Kendrick
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
3B - Brandon Wood
SS - Hanley Ramirez
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Justin Upton
OF - Adam Lind
OF - Drew Stubbs
OF - Chris Coghlan

SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Cliff Lee
SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Rich Harden
SP - Yovani Gallardo
SP - Brett Anderson
SP - Jamie Garcia
SP - Chris Tillman
SP - Jeremy Hellickson
RP - Bobby Jenks
RP - Brian Wilson
RP - Billy Wagner
RP - Luke Gregerson


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 Post subject: Re: Danks
PostPosted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 9:12 am 
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Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2010 5:36 pm
Posts: 41
Back to the xFIP. I know what it is. I know it is "supposed" to determine how good a pitcher really is by taking out all uncontrollable things such as fielders. But when you have a top prospect which Danks was in Texas. They throw him into an American League starting rotation as a 21 year old and he takes his lumps. Then he matures into a solid pitcher in his 2nd and 3rd year with solid ERA's (3.22 & 3.77) and solid K's (159 & 149), not to mention he hasn't missed a start in 3 years. His K rate will go up, not down.

So I decided to compare him to the other best LHP in the game when they were 22 and 23. However, most of the best LHP at that age were in the minors or in the bullpen. So I decided to use their 2nd and 3rd season in the starting rotation. And I decided to use the famous, xFIP.

John Danks 2008-2009: 3.87, 4.44

Jon Lester 2007-2008: 5.13, 4.08
Francisco Liriano 2008-2009: 4.31, 4.55
CC Sabathia 2002-2003: 4.30, 4.13
Cliff Lee 2005-2006: 4.26, 5.09
Johan Santana 2004-2005: 2.95, 3.10
Mark Buehrle 2002-2003: 4.03, 4.37
Erik Bedard 2005-2006: 4.01, 3.77
And everyone's favorite... Jonathan Sanchez 2008-2009: 4.14, 4.19

So according to xFIP, you would've overlooked all these guys (except Santana obviously), because their xFIP was equal to or much worse than Danks this point of their careers. You would've definitely given up on CC, because he only had 149 and 141 K's during these season, less than Danks in each season.

While I imagine you guys will spew out some other geek stats at me why Danks will not be good, that is fine. I will sit and watch Danks throw solid game after solid game this summer and think back to what Texas was thinking when they had to have Brandon McCarthy when they traded Danks to the South Side.

_________________
C - Matt Wieters
1B - Billy Butler
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Howie Kendrick
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
3B - Brandon Wood
SS - Hanley Ramirez
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Justin Upton
OF - Adam Lind
OF - Drew Stubbs
OF - Chris Coghlan

SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Cliff Lee
SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Rich Harden
SP - Yovani Gallardo
SP - Brett Anderson
SP - Jamie Garcia
SP - Chris Tillman
SP - Jeremy Hellickson
RP - Bobby Jenks
RP - Brian Wilson
RP - Billy Wagner
RP - Luke Gregerson


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 Post subject: Re: Danks
PostPosted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:15 am 
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Joined: Sat May 09, 2009 9:24 pm
Posts: 141
cygar13 wrote:
reveries and Ace both have some good hitters. I have to give reveries the edge at 3B though. Zimmerman is going to have a monster year. It seems he has been playing for 10 years now, but he is still only 25. The guy hits HR's even when he can pick up his leg. Longoria is going to be good too, but he is more focused on commercials right now.

reveries, I was looking at your signature and noticed your league has a 45 IP minimum. Is that supposed to be maximum? If not, what happens if you have SP's miss some starts or you don't get your 45 innings?


Haha, you're screwed. It is minimum. That's why I'm carrying 8 SP and so are a lot of people. It has the effect of making the pitching waiver pool very thin.

_________________
ESPN 12 team mixed points league
Max 162 starts

2 DL spots

C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Paul Konerko
2B: Howard Kendrick
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Yunel Escobar
IF: Bryan LaHair
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
OF: Jay Bruce
OF: Ryan Braun
OF: Justin Upton
Util: David Ortiz
BN: Shane Victorino (OF), Chris Davis (1B/3B), Mike Trout (OF)

SP: CC Sabathia, Matt Garza, Shaun Marcum, Yu Darvish, Ross Detwiler
RP: Steve Cishek, David Robertson, Santiago Casilla, Rafael Dolis, James Russell
DL: Kyle Farnsworth, Sergio Santos


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Danks
PostPosted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:26 am 
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Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2010 5:36 pm
Posts: 41
So what happens if you don't get it? What if your pitchers only get you 38 innings? Do you lose points or fofeit that week?

_________________
C - Matt Wieters
1B - Billy Butler
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Howie Kendrick
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
3B - Brandon Wood
SS - Hanley Ramirez
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Justin Upton
OF - Adam Lind
OF - Drew Stubbs
OF - Chris Coghlan

SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Cliff Lee
SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Rich Harden
SP - Yovani Gallardo
SP - Brett Anderson
SP - Jamie Garcia
SP - Chris Tillman
SP - Jeremy Hellickson
RP - Bobby Jenks
RP - Brian Wilson
RP - Billy Wagner
RP - Luke Gregerson


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Danks
PostPosted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:40 am 
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Joined: Sat May 09, 2009 9:24 pm
Posts: 141
It's H2H and you lose every pitching category. It's mainly to penalize the guys who don't pay attention and have like 2 healthy pitchers who have good starts and beat you in a bunch of average categories. So far, it hasn't happened to anyone yet.

_________________
ESPN 12 team mixed points league
Max 162 starts

2 DL spots

C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Paul Konerko
2B: Howard Kendrick
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Yunel Escobar
IF: Bryan LaHair
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
OF: Jay Bruce
OF: Ryan Braun
OF: Justin Upton
Util: David Ortiz
BN: Shane Victorino (OF), Chris Davis (1B/3B), Mike Trout (OF)

SP: CC Sabathia, Matt Garza, Shaun Marcum, Yu Darvish, Ross Detwiler
RP: Steve Cishek, David Robertson, Santiago Casilla, Rafael Dolis, James Russell
DL: Kyle Farnsworth, Sergio Santos


Top
 Profile  
 
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