Sports Betting

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havok
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Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:40 pm
Location: NJ

Sports Betting

Postby havok » Mon May 03, 2010 5:50 pm

Anyone at all into sports betting?

Just wondering if I have any fellow degenerates around here with me.

Let me know what sports, where you bet, where you get your information... just looking to trade some knowledge, insight, etc.

It's all about the +EV.
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always
so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts."

"The worst thing that can happen to a gambler is to win."

"When you bet on a dog only three things can happen; two of them are good."

Follow all my tweeting nonsense @TheRealestDan

Hebrew Hammer
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Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 10:45 am
Location: Southern Illinois
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Re: Sports Betting

Postby Hebrew Hammer » Mon May 03, 2010 8:10 pm

bodog.com

i was pretty heavy into college basketball and liked betting halftime lines in the nba and such. baseball from time to time as well
C- C Santana
C- Norris
1b- Encarnacion
2b- Altuve
3b- Donaldson
SS- Crawford
CI- Belt
Mi- Dozier
Of- A Jones
OF- C Gomez
OF- M Brantley
OF- J Pederson
OF- J Marisnick
U- K Bryant

P- F Hernandez
P- J Zimmermann
P- J DeGrom
P- Quintana
P- Buchholz
P- S Greene
P- Chapman
P- Gregerson
P- AJ Ramos

Bench
Castellanos
Ender Inciarte
Carlos Beltran
Doolittle
Stroman
Colby Lewis
J Nelson
Alex Colome

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havok
Posts: 983
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:40 pm
Location: NJ

Re: Sports Betting

Postby havok » Mon May 03, 2010 8:43 pm

I guess I didn't bother to even answer my own questions.

I enjoy betting NCAA hoops and football, MLB, NFL, and the very occasional NBA game or fight (both UFC and major boxing matches). Not an internet bettor which limits my abilities to shop lines for the best value but it makes life easier when getting/giving money.

Have been on and off betting since midway through college about 6 years ago but have really been much more active over the past year and a half. I consider myself a pretty heavy contrarian bettor in that I shy away from heavily public-backed teams and look for value in underdogs or what most would consider as bogus lines.

I'm a big fan of using sports simulations like Accuscore or even DCI/Dunkel to find value in lines and also use Sports Insight to track how the public is betting %-wise. My most useful and favorite site (for NCAA hoops only) is http://www.kenpom.com

Wasn't sure about the interest level here or if this is even the right venue to be posting at but I would be willing to post my picks purely for tracking purposes if anyone was interested. I'd love to start up a hearty betting discussion and/or debate over here.
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always
so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts."

"The worst thing that can happen to a gambler is to win."

"When you bet on a dog only three things can happen; two of them are good."

Follow all my tweeting nonsense @TheRealestDan

Hebrew Hammer
Posts: 1443
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 10:45 am
Location: Southern Illinois
Contact:

Re: Sports Betting

Postby Hebrew Hammer » Tue May 04, 2010 7:43 am

i've looked at kenpom as well. very sweet site. i would look at your picks each day no doubt.

during the nba playoffs i've heard of this thing called the zig-zag theory. basically, you bet on the team that lost the night before. So, in game 3 of the Cavs and Celts, you bet Cavs.

Also, I like parlaying money lines.
C- C Santana
C- Norris
1b- Encarnacion
2b- Altuve
3b- Donaldson
SS- Crawford
CI- Belt
Mi- Dozier
Of- A Jones
OF- C Gomez
OF- M Brantley
OF- J Pederson
OF- J Marisnick
U- K Bryant

P- F Hernandez
P- J Zimmermann
P- J DeGrom
P- Quintana
P- Buchholz
P- S Greene
P- Chapman
P- Gregerson
P- AJ Ramos

Bench
Castellanos
Ender Inciarte
Carlos Beltran
Doolittle
Stroman
Colby Lewis
J Nelson
Alex Colome

User avatar
havok
Posts: 983
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:40 pm
Location: NJ

Re: Sports Betting

Postby havok » Tue May 04, 2010 8:21 am

I try to avoid parlays and exotic bets as best I can because value gets lost left and right when trying to combine games. It's hard enough to get 1 game right, nevermind stringing 2 or 3 or 4 together.

When I do bet ML's (mainly baseball, rare NCAAF underdogs) I keep the unit bet the same and just accept a lesser payout when betting neg. juice. This is just another reason why I try to stick to betting underdogs.
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always
so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts."

"The worst thing that can happen to a gambler is to win."

"When you bet on a dog only three things can happen; two of them are good."

Follow all my tweeting nonsense @TheRealestDan

Hebrew Hammer
Posts: 1443
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 10:45 am
Location: Southern Illinois
Contact:

Re: Sports Betting

Postby Hebrew Hammer » Tue May 04, 2010 8:24 am

i'm with you on betting the same amount each game.

what i failed to mention is that I like parlaying money lines on heavy NFL favorites.

in college b-ball, i liked betting 3 separate money lines on the underdog. If you only win 1 of the 3, you usually came out even or even a little ahead. winning 2 of 3 paid off big.

but yes other than that parlays and teasers are a waste of time.
C- C Santana
C- Norris
1b- Encarnacion
2b- Altuve
3b- Donaldson
SS- Crawford
CI- Belt
Mi- Dozier
Of- A Jones
OF- C Gomez
OF- M Brantley
OF- J Pederson
OF- J Marisnick
U- K Bryant

P- F Hernandez
P- J Zimmermann
P- J DeGrom
P- Quintana
P- Buchholz
P- S Greene
P- Chapman
P- Gregerson
P- AJ Ramos

Bench
Castellanos
Ender Inciarte
Carlos Beltran
Doolittle
Stroman
Colby Lewis
J Nelson
Alex Colome

User avatar
Freak
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Posts: 244
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:57 am
Location: Indianapolis
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Re: Sports Betting

Postby Freak » Sun May 09, 2010 10:27 am

I use centsports. It has all the thrill of betting on games, with all the monetary security of not betting on games.

You get 10 cents and then can bet on whatever you want. If you lose your money, you start over at 10 cents. Most I've gotten up to was $22.05.

User avatar
havok
Posts: 983
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:40 pm
Location: NJ

Re: Sports Betting

Postby havok » Wed Sep 08, 2010 7:10 pm

Figured I'd bring my dead thread back to life with the NFL and NCAAF rolling around.

Some props I like this year:
KC over 6.5
Pitt over 9
StL over 4.5
TB over 6
Washington over 7.5
Houston under 8.5
Dallas under 10.5
SF under 9
NO under 10.5
Cinci under 8.5

Week 1 leans:
Buffalo +3
KC +4.5
Iggles +3
Zona -4
Panthers +6.5

Survivor: Chicago Bears

NCAAF leans:
Miss. St. +1.5
UTEP +20
Oklahoma -7.5
Kansas +14
Vanderbilt +9.5
Ohio State -8.5
Penn St. +12
ND -4
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always
so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts."

"The worst thing that can happen to a gambler is to win."

"When you bet on a dog only three things can happen; two of them are good."

Follow all my tweeting nonsense @TheRealestDan

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bookiebob
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2009 11:39 am

Re: Sports Betting

Postby bookiebob » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:37 pm

Oh you sick, compulsive, degenerate gambler!

I can't stand to see you throw away your money.... on the.... what? Buffalo +3? That is a bad beat waiting to happen!

ps - Please keep us informed of your results. That is all.
Hey Smails! A thousand bucks you miss that putt!

User avatar
havok
Posts: 983
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:40 pm
Location: NJ

Re: Sports Betting

Postby havok » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:11 pm

bookiebob wrote:Oh you sick, compulsive, degenerate gambler!


We all work 40 hours a week so that we can spend our money on something. 6-packs and bad bets is just my calling.

I'll be sure to keep you all informed of the losses.
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always
so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts."

"The worst thing that can happen to a gambler is to win."

"When you bet on a dog only three things can happen; two of them are good."

Follow all my tweeting nonsense @TheRealestDan


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