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 Post subject: Not so simple keeper decision
PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:38 am 
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Posts: 523
The league is a 10 Teamer, H2H, 5 x 5, Yahoo. Each team can keep one player from the previous year, giving up the round you drafted them in the previous year. I didn't end up well with any offensive players so here are the 3 options I have to pick from.

6th round - Cole Hamels
10th round - Yu Darvish
11th round - Gio Gonzalez

At first glance the obvious choice I think is Gio since he's in the 11th round. However, this is only a 10 teamer and there will be tons of talent to be had. I know Gio is the value choice but I may lean toward Cole since I think that is the safest pick of the 3. I believe Hamels is a top 6 pitcher and having a stud across all 5 pitching categories with my 6th pick in the draft seems like pretty good value. It's not like I couldn't get the other 2 in the draft if I didn't keep them.

So if this were a 12 team or above draft I'd say Gio was the obvious choice, but since it isn't I'm not positive who to choose.

Thoughts? Advice? Answers? All are appreciated.

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10 Team Yahoo, H2H, 5 x 5, Outfield position specific.
C -Jonathan Lucroy Mil - C,1B
1B -Albert Pujols LAA - 1B
2B -Ian Kinsler Det - 2B
3B -Evan Longoria TB - 3B
SS - Ben Zobrist TB - 2B,SS,LF,RF
LF - Josh Harrison Pit - 2B,3B,LF,RF
CF -Adam Jones Bal - CF
RF - José Bautista Tor - RF
Util - Nolan Arenado Col - 3B

SP - Ervin Santana Atl - SP
SP - Ryan Vogelsong SF - SP
SP -Julio Teherán Atl - SP
SP - Jenrry Mejía NYM - SP,RP
RP - Aroldis Chapman Cin - RP
BE - Mike Fiers Mil - SP,RP
BE - Drew Smyly TB - SP,RP
BE -Yordano Ventura KC - SP
BE - Gerrit Cole Pit - SP
BE - Alex Wood Atl - SP,RP
DL - Homer Bailey Cin - SP
DL - Hyun-jin Ryu LAD - SP


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 Post subject: Re: Not so simple keeper decision
PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:09 am 
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Personally I would take Darvish. I really like him and I don't think we have seen the best from him. Gio, I am worried that we saw the best from him last year and I am not buying into him as much as a lot of people are. If there was a bigger round difference between the two that might change things for me but with it only being one round I would lean towards Darvish.

But I can see your point about keeping Cole and if you feel that is the safer route to go then I would be fine with that. It is still a solid value for Hamels.


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 Post subject: Re: Not so simple keeper decision
PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:41 am 
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Mauddib wrote:
Personally I would take Darvish. I really like him and I don't think we have seen the best from him. Gio, I am worried that we saw the best from him last year and I am not buying into him as much as a lot of people are. If there was a bigger round difference between the two that might change things for me but with it only being one round I would lean towards Darvish.

But I can see your point about keeping Cole and if you feel that is the safer route to go then I would be fine with that. It is still a solid value for Hamels.


Do you have any reasoning behind why you think we haven't seen the best of Darvish but have seen the best of Gio? Gio's numbers have come down every year for the past 4 or 5. Darvish is still a wildcard and everyone is just making assumptions based on how dominant he was in Japan.

And Hamels is like a dependable Ferrari.

_________________
10 Team Yahoo, H2H, 5 x 5, Outfield position specific.
C -Jonathan Lucroy Mil - C,1B
1B -Albert Pujols LAA - 1B
2B -Ian Kinsler Det - 2B
3B -Evan Longoria TB - 3B
SS - Ben Zobrist TB - 2B,SS,LF,RF
LF - Josh Harrison Pit - 2B,3B,LF,RF
CF -Adam Jones Bal - CF
RF - José Bautista Tor - RF
Util - Nolan Arenado Col - 3B

SP - Ervin Santana Atl - SP
SP - Ryan Vogelsong SF - SP
SP -Julio Teherán Atl - SP
SP - Jenrry Mejía NYM - SP,RP
RP - Aroldis Chapman Cin - RP
BE - Mike Fiers Mil - SP,RP
BE - Drew Smyly TB - SP,RP
BE -Yordano Ventura KC - SP
BE - Gerrit Cole Pit - SP
BE - Alex Wood Atl - SP,RP
DL - Homer Bailey Cin - SP
DL - Hyun-jin Ryu LAD - SP


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 Post subject: Re: Not so simple keeper decision
PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:23 pm 
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Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:10 am
Posts: 2176
Agree for the most part about Hamels.

Darvish's big problem last year was his walks which got better throughout the year. Most pitchers get better the longer they are in the league. Darvish had a lot of learning to do which included adjusting how to pitch in the major leagues vs what he did in Japan. To think he won't get better would go against pretty much everything we expect from prospects which is pretty much what Darvish was last year.

Some of my thinking is gut feeling with Gio. I question whether his gains in BB/9 and HR/9 will continue. It looked like before last year he had set the expectations with two very similar years and two very similar numbers. I realize he is now pitching in a better league and a better team so I expected better numbers but not necessarily these numbers. His BABIP was also a career low and I would expect that to rise a bit which should have a ripple effect.

So yes I have somethings to back it up but I will admit a lot of it is gut instinct. I could easily be wrong but only time will tell.


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 Post subject: Re: Not so simple keeper decision
PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:17 pm 
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Posts: 124
Hamels, but i could see Darvish.
Gio walks too many imo.


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