Yesterday, I touched on the top 20 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball and only two guys pressed charges. I could’ve sworn Alex Cobb was giving me eyes and then I moved my hand and then he slapped my hand and I thought it was over but then the cops showed up and sigh. Last year, there was fifteen pitchers from 21-40 that I would’ve drafted. This year there’s 16, and the few guys I’m not crazy about in this post are probably fine too. Say it with me now, “There’s more pitchers than Michael J. Fox can shake a stick at.” I’ve already gone over all the hitters for my 2014 fantasy baseball rankings. As always, my projections and where tiers start and stop is included. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball:
21. Jordan Zimmermann – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball. This tier goes until Zimmermann. I called this tier, “I’ll let you be my first fantasy starter if I don’t have one yet.” Every year I say, due to his miniscule walk rate, Zimmermann just needs to bump up his K-rate and he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the game. And every year his K-rate goes lower. Soon he’s gonna be Kyle Lohse and I’m gonna seriously be over him. That time hasn’t come yet and he’s still only 27 years old. I don’t expect the jump in K-rate as I have in the past, but I do think he can be a completely solid ratio guy with around a 7 K-rate. He could’ve easily slid into the Chaz Bono tier too. Chaz Bono tier? You’ve officially lost your mind. Thanks, Random Italicized Voice. You’re welcome. I was being sarcastic. Sarcasm is just a shell to protect your fragile ego. Oh, shut up. Okay. 2014 Projections: 14-8/3.31/1.14/168
22. Matt Cain – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Masterson. I call this tier, “Chaz Bono.” For years guys in this tier have been confused about what they are. Whether they are top 40 starters, top 20 starters or top 10 starters. Finally, they’re comfortable enough in their own skin to be what they are — top 25-ish starters. For instance — or forinstance if you’re in a rush — the world thought of Cain as a top 15 starter, but now he’s finally come clean and shown himself to be a top 25 starter. Cain had a 2.36 ERA in the 2nd half last year, so I could see why some people would be excited about the prospects of his bounce back. And who knows, maybe that does portend greatness again. I’m not a witch with future sight. I do know his K-rate dropped all the way to 6.84 in the 2nd half and his line drive rate and batting average against were actually worse in the 2nd half. I think going forward we’re going to get months of Matt Cain looking terrific and months of him looking merely average. Just as he was last year. 2014 Projections: 14-11/3.49/1.15/179
23. James Shields – The Royals traded Wil Myers for James Shields. Hahahahaha… Okay, okay. It didn’t look that bad when they did it…Actually, it did. What a hideously run franchise. The Royals are in a torn-up town, but have no postcode envy. Shields gives a ton of innings, which puts him in line for wins, but his K-rate fell over one K per nine last year and he looks more like a workhorse than an ace as he moves deeper into his thirties. A 32-year-old starter for Wil Myers?! Oh, Royals. You gooftards. 2014 Projections: 14-10/3.47/1.22/193
24. Justin Masterson – He’s always been a home schooler, but last year it wasn’t quite as pronounced like Siri trying to say Sepulveda. BTW, I love how Siri takes my French and makes it jingoistic with “Mercy bootcamp.” Masterson’s been terrible vs. lefties, but again he fixed it enough last year where he didn’t scream in horror every time he saw a lefty coming up. Due to these gains, I think he can hold the majority of his bump in K-rate (6.94 to 9.09) and reduction of his walk rate (3.84 to 3.54). There is a slight chance here for a huge year, if he can get back to his 2.71 BB/9 from 2011 and couple it with a K-rate over 9. That would launch him into the stratosphere like he’s a tourist in Vegas, but likely he’s just around where he was last year. 2014 Projections: 12-10/3.51/1.22/191
25. Gerrit Cole – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Cingrani. I call this tier, “Who’s going to be 2014’s Matt Harvey?” Last year, I loved Matt Harvey but ranked him way too low. I refuse to let that happen again this year. I’m not going to have people say, “Hey, Grey, your mustache is like a warm blanket on a cold night, but why do you have Hamels above Gray or Wacha or Salazar if you’re projecting him for worse numbers?” Wacha, Salazar, et al (not the Israeli airline) will be in my cross hairs early and often. Cole, Cingrani, Gray, etc. etc. etc. also come with more risk so I’m fine with them being below a guy like Minor or Cain or whoever even though their projections are slightly better. As I mentioned in the top 20 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball under Jose Fernandez’s blurb, we’re not going to fear young starters. We’re going to snuggle right up to them and let them call us papa. When Cole came up he said he was throwing to contact, but then he seemed to move away from that because his K-rate bumped up to 8.92 in the 2nd half as his ERA tumbled down to 2.85 after a 1st half ERA of 3.89 (in only 41 2/3 IP). So, let me ask you something, over-the-internet friend. If you were Cole, would you throw to contact if the results were a near-4 ERA or would you try to strike out mothereffers? Yeah, me too. If he qualified with innings, he would’ve averaged the highest fastball velocity at 96.1. The closest to that would be Harvey and Strasburg in the 95’s. I want a guy that can average 96 MPH that doesn’t have many miles on his arm in the landmark case of sooner vs. later. 2014 Projections: 14-9/3.18/1.12/191
26. Sonny Gray – I already went over my Sonny Gray fantasy. It was written by an Indian in a Bangalore call center. 2014 Projections: 13-7/3.32/1.17/195
27. Masahiro Tanaka – Already went over my Masahiro Tanaka fantasy. It was written by my elbows while I was asleep. Weird! 2014 Projections: 14-8/3.39/1.11/187
28. Michael Wacha – Wacha pitched 155 1/3 IP last year, which is a ton and is my only real concern. He might be breakin’ fantasy baseballers’ hearts? I get that term from my mommy. I don’t know what he’s gonna do, I’m not an effin’ swami. Sorry, I just had to get that rhyme out. Everything else seems like it could be extraordinary and not extra ordinary. I have a good mind to put Wacha all the way up in the top 15, but a better mind to realize there is some risk involved with a 22-year-old. Still, I like him enough to take on that risk. As drunk Fozzie Bear would say, Michael Michael Michael. 2014 Projections: 12-4/3.41/1.09/172 in 175 IP
29. Danny Salazar – I already went over my Danny Salazar fantasy. It was written by a homeless guy who was humming Reminiscing by The Little River Band. 2014 Projections: 10-8/3.40/1.19/180 in 170 innings
30. Tony Cingrani – The only thing stopping Cingrani from being ranked in the top 20 starters is I don’t think he’s going to come close to 200 innings. In shallow leagues, where you can fill in for a guy in August or September when they’re skipped or shut down, this means very little. I’d contend — I’m contending y’all! — that just about all mixed leagues are shallow in August and September because people have moved on to football and/or are out of the running and you have less competition for waiver guys. Cingrani’s numbers are eye-popping. He’s got closer numbers as a starter. A closer that would have everyone in the ballpark scared out of their mind. Last year he had a 10+ K-rate and a 3.70 BB/9, which means he could easily be a 4.50 ERA pitcher if he gets unlucky or loses anything off his K-rate. He could also be a 2.50 ERA pitcher with 170 Ks in 160 IP and I like that gamble (no relation to Rudy). 2014 Projections: 12-9/3.46/1.22/163 in 160 innings
31. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Lester. I call this tier, “Got 99 problems, pitchers don’t got to be one.” I’ve buried these pitchers to the best of my ability so I don’t have to draft any of them. I’m sure Hamels will be fine in 2014 (I’m not sure). He has an impressive track record, but I see Zola Budd coming up behind him. Don’t love the K-rate dropping nearly one K per nine, hate the Phils offense, and picture his homers going up, which will bloat his ERA further. 2014 Projections: 11-10/3.68/1.18/192
32. Doug Fister – Here’s what I said this offseason on him, “Traded to the Nats. That gives Fister’s value a fighting chance. *drops mic* In the NL, Fister is a candidate for more punchouts. *jumps up and down on mic* I’m done! Going the other way in the trade was Steve Lombardozzi, who lost every professional wrestling match he ever took part in. Why did the Tigers do this trade? Your guess = my guess. Maybe when Leyland left the team it was like when you have a really bad breakup and you just start doing dopey shizz like listening to Peabo Bryson and crying at phone commercials. FISTER! (doesn’t his name look like it should be capped with an exclamation mark? It’s not a last name; it’s a command) walks no one. Like, fo’really. Last year, FISTER!’s walk rate was under 2. To be an ace, a guy with an under 2 walk rate only needs an 8 K-rate. FISTER! doesn’t have that though. He’s flirted with it. In 2012, his K-rate was 7.63. If he can do that with a spectacular walk rate, he could be a solid number two. I love this move for FISTER!” And that’s me quoting me! 2014 Projections: 11-9/3.57/1.23/140
33. Hisashi Iwakuma – Member the Jordan Zimmermann of yore? Have any idea what yore means? Me neither. I’m thinking it means ‘of long ago’ or it means ‘a Russian state of chemical equilibrium.’ “Chernobyl is so not yore vacation destination, Ivan.” See? Well, Zimmermann was a pitcher with a terrific walk rate and a 7+ K-rate until he went and lost Ks. Iwakuma has stepped in and taken his position. In Safeco with an improved offense, Hisashi can once again be a top ten starter as he was last year. Hisashi my dashi — slurp, SLURP! indeed. UPDATE: He has a strained tendon in his hand, which is much worse than a strained tendon in his soup. 2014 Projections: 10-6/3.59/1.10/145
34. Mike Minor – There’s a case to be made that Minor should be over Teheran in the rankings, but I’m not making that case because I have them in this order for a few reasons. A) They’re essentially the same thing but Teheran has a tad more upside. B) Minor gave up more line drives, less ground balls and more fly balls. C) There’s no C. Minor is safer than Teheran by a hair, but safe is what got you your teaching credential and why you wake up to a classroom of sniveling teenagers who make fun of your Bill Blass tie. UPDATE: Has a shoulder issue and could miss all of April. 2014 Projections: 12-8/3.56/1.13/139
35. Jered Weaver – For years, I’ve preached staying away from Weaver. Falling velocity, falling K-rate, inability to stay healthy, an xFIP much larger than his ERA (that’s what she said!) and a perception that he was better than he was which made him overrated. Finally, he’s ranked around where I’d draft him. Unfortch, he’s not ranked this low for anyone else so I still won’t own him. 2014 Projections: 14-8/3.44/1.10/140
36. Shelby Miller – I don’t trust him at all after the innings he just threw. His 2nd half K-rate dropped from 9.63 to 7.47 and he was lucky last year to have such a low ERA. I think he’ll be ranked around here next year after taking a step back in 2014. If he puts together another season like he just did, he’ll be ranked in the top dozen starters for 2015 and I’ll issue a mea culpa in Nicaragua. 2014 Projections: 13-9/3.71/1.25/171
37. Jon Lester – Only thing really keeping his value afloat is the Sons of Sam Horn trumpeting him — pun point! His K-rate has settled in around 7.50 and his walk rate just a hair below three. He’s usually good for a 3.50-3.75 ERA, which isn’t hideous, but he tends to have these stretches where he has a four-plus ERA for a couple of months and you want to kill someone and murder is a crime in 49 of 50 states. So don’t draft him unless you’re in West Virginia. 2014 Projections: 14-10/3.66/1.31/171
39. Patrick Corbin – These pitchers could also be known as 2-ish BB/9, 7+ K-rate pitchers, but that’s even more boring (boringer?) to say. This tier is filled with guys that should be a safe number three for fantasy. Now, I’m not saying these guys are exciting or sexy or adjective. I’m saying guys that when coupled with a Wacha or, well, I’ll go over pairings in a different post, but these guys are relatively safe for the middle of your fantasy rotation. Corbin is on the high end of the 7+ K-rate, 2-ish BB/9. He’s borderline King Fantastic, but ended up in this tier because his 2nd half last year was egregious (5.19 ERA). I think Corbin will take a slight step back this year then be primed for a breakout in 2015. UPDATE: UCL damage. I liked Corbin better when he was dating Carrie on Sex and the City, and I hated that show. 2014 Projections: 13-9/3.56/1.19/172
38. Rick Porcello – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here into the top 60 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Taking a number three doesn’t mean a pee and poop combo.” I’ve hated Porcello since he came up in 2010. His walk rates were always superb, but he routinely posted terrible K-rates and even worse ERAs so I didn’t sweat him. Yo, I don’t sweat him! Last year his ERA was 4.32 — whoopie doo poopie-doo! — and his K-rate was 7.22 — better, still not Elite Model Management. Four years into the league and he’s still not showing anything remotely interesting? Well, he’s only 25 years old and last year was actually a huge step forward like Andre the Giant would take. His K-rate jumped by almost two Ks per nine and his walk rate continued to be terrific. His xFIP was all the way down to 3.19 due to his subpar strand rate and high BABIP. Those shouldn’t just be written off as bad luck. A high BABIP could mean great contact by hitters (which it does in this case, but better than past years) and a subpar strand rate could mean he’s not great from the stretch (which it means here too, but better than past years). He struggles vs. lefties too, but that also moved in the right direction last year. Porcello isn’t perfect going into this year, but he could easily take a small step forward at the age of 25 and be a top 30 starter. Or to summarize then have Feist read it aloud, Porcello goes mushaboom. 2014 Projections: 15-9/3.61/1.24/163
39. Mat Latos – It’s kinda funny how many pitchers can get you between a 3.15 and 3.60 ERA, which is really all you need from a starter. If you had six starters getting you a 3.51 ERA (468 runs or 78 runs per starter at 200 innings each) and four relievers that get you a 3.00 ERA (96 runs or 24 runs per 72-inning reliever), you’d have a 3.41 ERA. That would’ve got nine points in my ‘pert league last year. You can slice that different ways obviously — two top relievers, two terrible relievers (SAGNOF!) and three great pitchers and three mediocre ones with great Ks. There’s lots of ways to skin the pitching rotation cat and I’ll go over this in its own post, but don’t be afraid to wait until this point in the rankings for your first starter. As for Latos, you know what he gives you. UPDATE: He’s got knee woes. Woes is knee. 2014 Projections: 13-9/3.58/1.23/166
40. Andrew Cashner – Cash rules everything around me, fastball velocity gets the money, where’s the strikeouts, y’all? I don’t know. Cashner is an anomaly wrapped in a New Yorker comic that no one understands. It’s like Keyshawn Johnson is his catcher and he’s yelling, “Just throw me the damn ball fast.” The top five in velocity last year: Harvey, Strasburg, Jose Fernandez, Wily Peralta and Cashner (tied with Samardzija). Cashner and Peralta should go to Kellogg’s couples counseling so they can hear, “You know you’re special, K?” I’d say it’s harder to regularly throw 95 MPH, as Cashner does, and not strikeout guys than to throw 89 MPH like Medlen and K hitters. Cashner was a 10+ K-rate guy as a reliever too. It’s baffling to say the least. Okay, to say the least, it’s baff. 2014 Projections: 10-12/3.45/1.14/145
