Bullpen Report – Net Saves and Holds Projections

The name says it all, it’s what everyone keeps asking for,  NSVH.  It sounds like a spin-off of CSI, or Law and Order.  Except with really geeky dudes who shouldn’t really have an actual head-shot of themselves for use as their avatar.  We know who they are, and pointing fingers isn’t polite unless it’s the one that I normally get from people at the retirement home I frequent for volunteer duties.  Much love Shady Acres.  So this week we delve into the numbers game, the ones that mimic me and steal my Nutella sandwich.  These projections are highly irregular and tougher than most other stats in the pretend game.  The fluctuation of personnel by teams is mind boggling and makes me look goofy.  So in the chart below I am giving you the top-60 NSVH chaps with some pertinent stats that help all.  During the year, I’ll get into more of the sustaining stats, but since we aren’t there yet, I can’t just make them up.  Those tendency stats that I am referring to (Inherited Runners, Inherited Runners Scored, and Appearances with Lead) are my way of determining both closer and set-up guy efficiency.  How they are used and when they are used.  So those that are looking forward to that, hooray for you.   So without further adieu, here are some projections for the top NSVH guys for this year.

• Mark Melancon is the so called bell of the ball for value in this format.  Yeah, I can dig that he had a down year in 2012, but 2013 was stellar.  He made 72 appearances and allowed zero inherited runs to score, it’s because he had zero chances to let them score.  That’s a knock and a slap on the tookus all in one.  Allowing 11 ER all year is quite remarkable, and if he keeps this up and gets over 30 holds and steals some saves for when Jason Grilli is all 6’s and 7’s.
• Closers are all the gas in most formats, except this one.  They are drafted way higher than normal and because of the Blown Save as a negative they don’t offer enough in the Holds department to show there true draft value.  So keep that in mind when your draft is happening.  It’s usually good to wait and partner a closer and his top-2 set-up guys.
• Bullpen consistency is king.  Look for teams that have stacked bullpens with guys that have track records.  Teams like the Padres, Braves and A’s are a rolling ball of NSVH value.
• Grabbing handcuffs for yourself es mas importante. Because if a domino falls and you have the next piece, the guys being replaced still retains value.  Saves are saves and holds are holds, but both count in the running total.
• I realize there will be guys with more holds than ‘last on the list’ LaTroy Hawkins, but I listed him for the effect that not all closers are gems in this format.