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Last month, I told you Ubaldo, Mike Leake, Hi-Me Garcia, Buchholz, Livan, Garland, Niemann, Tim Hudson, David Price and Pettitte would get worse.  Price and Buchholz were the only pitchers to have a better June than May, and Buchholz didn’t pitch the whole month.  How’s those odds?  If you don’t know what the FIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first three months or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Clay Buchholz – -1.83.  Combine this with the injury, a 6.26 K/9, a 3.72 BB/9, an inflated Win total and an unrealistic ERA and there could be some trouble ahead.

Matt Cain – -1.73.  Of course Matt Cain’s on this list.  He’s been on just about every list of lucky pitchers for the last two years.

Tim Hudson – -1.73.  His ERA corrected itself a bit in June and it should continue to trend the wrong way as his good luck leprechaun becomes a lepre-can’t.  Oofa!

Jeff Niemann – -1.67. There’s some guys I wish would just pitch as terribly as they’re capable of so I can stop talking about them.  Niemann’s one of those guys.

Wade LeBlanc – -1.61.  Then there’s times I come across a guy on these FIP lists that hurts me to see.  LeBlanc’s one of those because I own him on a few teams.  I’m going to continue to start him only at home as a hodgepadre, try to keep him dry and not feed him after midnight.

Jaime Garcia – -1.61.  His xFIP and FIP are both below 4 and his K-rate is over 7.  I before e, things might get worse but still usable.

David Price – -1.55.  Basically what we’re seeing today is the guys that were lucky are still being lucky.  The nice thing on Price and why I wouldn’t completely shy away from him is his xFIP is 3.97 and his K-rate is near 8.

Livan Hernandez – -1.55.  Livan’s not a 3.12 ERA pitcher?  C’mon!  No way!

Ubaldo Jimenez – -1.47.  So I could’ve just said look at last month’s post about lucky pitchers.  Okay, point taken.  Because of that I’m going to skip Jon Garland (-1.22) and Andy Pettitte (-1.27) and move to some new names…

C.J. Wilson – -1.45.  The Texas heat combined with his home park is already a recipe for disaster.

Jonathan Sanchez – -1.21.  If you thought/think (depending on your tense/density) that Sanchez is a low-3 ERA, news flash!  He’s not.  But his K-rate is also the best on this list.  Yes, better than Ubaldo.

Mat Latos – -0.97.  The xFIP is a concern, but the bigger concern for H2H leagues is once the Padres realize they are costing themselves their best pitcher for 2011 by pushing Latos, they will probably start skipping him in September.

Clayton Richard – -0.96.  According to this list, the Padres might want to consider trading Bell before the inevitable collapse.  In fairness to my beloved hodgepadres, they pitch their home games in Yellowstone.  Don’t drop any of them.  Just use your head when starting them.  Or just look for “@San Diego.”

168 Responses

  1. Philomath says:
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    So… If Matt Cain has been on your list, and others (I know I couldn’t believe the “others” were as smart as you either?!), of lucky players for the past two years, maybe this IS the true Matt Cain? Maybe he has a rabbitt’s foot lodged somewhere? Or, will he truly come crashing down to earth? And, how big do you see said crash?

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Philomath: So far he’s been like Rosie Perez walking away from crashes. He’s around a 3.75 ERA guy so it shouldn’t be terrible.

  3. barker says:
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    bud norris vs stl tommorrow start or no in twenty team league
    counts losses
    career vs. stl 4 starts 4-0 26inn 18hits 2r 1er k-bb 25-9

    looks like a go but i have lester and shields goin tommorrow too and kershaw today im down 2 wins

    should i take the plunge i already acquired him for the day plan to drop him after for rajai davis who was inexpicably dropped hope the waiver goes through

  4. chris says:
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    what kind of return do you think you could get on sanchez or is he pretty much just someone your stuck holding onto because he wont get proper value in return

  5. johnbutte says:
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    Grey, Wandy is a free agent in one of my leagues. Should I drop Cueto, Morrow, Jurrjens, or Marcum for him?

  6. Gibby says:
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    Hey Grey, I have a chance to deal Latos for Kershaw right now in a keeper league, should it be done? Also, how much longer should I give Wieters on my keeper squad (s) before I bail…….Thank brother.

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @barker: Sure, try him.

    @chris: I don’t think you’ll get proper return for him, but you can try for a 2nd tier outfielder or infielder.

    @johnbutte: Marcum or Morrow, depending how bad you need Ks.

    @Gibby: I’d prefer Kershaw. I’d hold Wieters, but I don’t know any of your specifics.

  8. Howie Met Your Mother says:
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    Holy smokes! I’m in two leagues, a competitive one with my friends and one full of random Yahoo retards. The guy in 2nd place in the retard league just dropped Yovani Gallardo! Good thing I didn’t waste the #1 waiver priority last week on Nick Swisher…

  9. Gibby says:
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    Specifics are this:14 team deep mixed league

    Wieters is my guy, but I may be able to deal for Posey.

  10. Howie Met Your Mother says:
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    I never thought I’d have to ask this, but do I drop Lilly, Nolasco or Scherzer for Gallardo?

  11. pjtres says:
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    grey…would you trade j-up for car-go in a keeper?

  12. At what point do guys that profile as lucky get credit for skills? Someone like Matt Cain been called lucky for years now. I think the truth is he has skills that have not commonly measured.

  13. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Gibby: i wouldn’t deal much value for posey if you already got wieters. they are Cs. wieters will be fine, he isn’t gonna give you piazza numbers but i wouldn’t drop him to trade a useful piece for posey when in the long run there probably isn’t gonna be much difference. and if there it, it’s still just a C.

  14. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @pjtres: no.

  15. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Jon Williams: on some level every guy that ends up with a low 3.00 or better era is “lucky”. but cain has a fairly high walk rate and a falling, yet has kept his era under 3.00 for 1.5 years now. like grey said, he doesn’t suck, but he’s closer to a 3.50 or so SP than a sub-3.00 SP.

  16. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    It may be time to take note of Chris Davis again? I could see either him or Smoak being involved in a deal for Lee.

  17. EDUB says:
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    @Philomath- I think it shows how FIP is a flawed stat just like the rest of them.

  18. urmygyro says:
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    c.j. wilson this weekend against the orioles…advisable to start?

  19. royce! says:
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    I was excited to see that I don’t own any of these guys… then I realized that was probably why my teams have fared so poorly over the last month or so. (I had Jaime and Ubaldo, but sent them packing). I now seem to have all the guys whose FIP and xFIP are much lower than their ERA.

    For now, I’m hoping that my elementary understanding of statistics and probability is incorrect, meaning that Liriano’s ERA should be somewhere around 1 for the next month or two to balance out the difference between his xFIP and current ERA.

    Speaking of my ignorance of math, I’ve been reading The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Mlodinow. Not sure if I’ve mentioned it here before, but it’s an entertaining overview of probability theory or what have you. I recommend it for the non-math people out there that would like a better grasp of what the sabrmetricians are rattling their sabers over.

  20. @Grey: Something that I always wonder when I look at FIP: I know that FIP doesn’t look at batted balls, but how useful is it if we consistently see pitch-to-contact guys outperform their FIP?

    Balls hit off of Tim Hudson for instance go for grounders 67.8% of the time – highest in baseball. He gives up liners at a 10.6% rate – lowest in the game. This is a good thing for the pitcher, regardless of whether or not he’s getting K’s. Of course it’s dependent on his defense, but with a good D behind him, he’ll be money.

    One can even argue that in a QS league, like the one I play in, it lends more value to a control pitcher who allows weak contact, since he’ll probably go deeper into games than a guy who K’s a ton (like Dirty Sanchez or Morrow for example).

    I understand what FIP tells us, but at what point do we say – “Ok, he doesn’t K anyone, but hey the guy’s a ground ball pitcher and balls on the ground are more likely to be outs than those hit in the air?”

    More importantly I guess, is how do we quantify that?

  21. Wah says:
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    Drop Slowey for Randy Wells?

  22. royce! says:
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    @3FingersBrown: I think that tERA is an attempt to answer your questions regarding the effects of GB/FB/LD %s. Check this: http://www.fangraphs.com/forums/topic.php?id=3624

    And from there: http://www.statcorner.com/tRAabout.html

    And regarding Hudson’s LD rate, since 2001 there have been very few pitchers who had a LD rate under 15% (I believe 5, but I don’t want to do the research) and no qualified starter has had a LD rate under 13. That doesn’t mean that it can’t be done, but considering that Hudson’s career best was 16.9, it seems very unlikely that he will continue giving up 10% LDs.

  23. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @3FingersBrown: i think you kinda gotta take it on a case-by-case basis. for example, if i was trading for a top tier SP, i would not trade for matt cain. i don’t care that he’s working on 1.5 seasons of sub-3.00 era, i still think eventually he’ll regress some. likewise, a guy like haren or to a much much lesser extent lincecum who are underperforming expections, i can look at their peripherals and it appears they are being more unlucky than anything, so if i can grab them cheap then it might be worth my while.

    as for the K correlation, the more contact one gives up, the more likely they are to give up hits, thus baserunners and runs. sure a guy may induce weak contact, but his margin for error is much much lower than a guy that Ks 8+ per 9 IP.

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Cheese: I’m not taking note of him until he’s wearing a major league uniform again.

    @urmygyro: Sure

    @royce!: Cool, will check it out. Thanks for the recommendation!

    @3FingersBrown: What poon and royce! said. Re: grounders either go through or they don’t. If they don’t go through that means fielders are getting more than is normal or less. If they’re getting more, than chances are some singles will go through the infield at some point and cause the pitcher’s “luck” to go down. Or the pitchers just have great defense (which is possible).

  25. Ryan says:
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    So where can you find a list of all pitchers’ xFIP? Also wouldn’t mind a list of hitters BABIP either.

    Thanks.
    R

  26. royce! says:
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    @Ryan: fangraphs.com

  27. Ryan says:
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    I guess to expand on that, I own Buccholz, Ubaldo, and Clayton Richard. I should be packaging them now for some guys with xFIP on the other side, like Royce was saying about Liriano. So I package these guys, but need a list of pitchers who have + level xFIP, correct? So yeah, where is that list…
    Thanks again.
    R

  28. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Ryan: i think with ubaldo, you might wanna hold out for him to have another few good starts (like today’s thus far ::crosses finger::) and try to swing him for lincecum or something like that. i think you are underselling him straight up for liriano, plus taking on some injury risk with liriano. now if you could do ubaldo for liriano + a solid bat you need, then i’d do that.

  29. Wilsonian says:
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    @Poon; @Grey: continuing on with my quest for another pitcher… My offer for Lester was shot down. He said Lester would be joining him on his roster next season, so I should save my efforts. Hey, at least he was honest. Which I like way better than those jackasses that don’t say anything. He still said that Price could be bought…for a price… Wow… Anywho, what’s your take on Utley for Price? I would probably have to throw in the pitcher I would be dropping, Richard (or Aardsma or Axford), to clear space. What about the same deal for Kershaw? This is all assuming that I’m unable to get CC, which I think is a no-go without even inquiring. I kinda know and understand my Dad, and he definitely doesn’t help me out just for shits and giggles. I’m just tossing out ideas as I don’t even know if I’m gonna swing a deal, but Utley is probably my best trade chip that I would give up, and I’m a huge fan of hearing what you and Grey have to say about this stuff. Your opinions are greatly appreciated and respected.

  30. Steve says:
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    I look forward to seeing how Ubaldo (who I own on a couple of teams, not to mention Latos, Buchholz, Cain and Hudson – yikes!) reconciles the probability of a regression with his propensity to have a strong second half…

    Elsewhere, What-The-Hell-I-Might-As-Well-Get-Back-To-Doing-The-Only-Damn-Thing-That-Makes-Me-Even-The-Slightest-Bit-Ownable Sanchez has made his way to the ballpark today, it seems.

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wilsonian: If you understand your Dad you’re beating me. Wait, your Dad? Is in your league? That’s awesome. I am jealous of your relationship. Hug me, Daddy! Anyway, I’d take Kershaw before Price, but I wouldn’t want to give up Utley. If you need a SP, go for a cheaper one.

    @Steve: You mean, Anything-Other-Than-0-For-3-With-A-Run-Is-Good Sanchez?

  32. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Wilsonian: i would probably value kershaw a little higher than price, but that’s just me personally. neither has great control, kershaw has a better K rate, and has proven he can overcome his BBs over a full season and still post a sub-3.00 era. plus he’s a little younger and not in the AL east.

  33. royce! says:
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    @Ryan: Go to fangraphs.com. Click on leaders. Click on pitchers. Click on Advanced. Click on xFIP.

  34. Steve says:
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    I’m-Currently-3-For-3-With-2-Runs-And-2-RBIs-How’s-Dem-Apples? Sanchez. I’m starting to run out of these…

    LOVING me some Oswalt right now.

  35. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: @ThePoonTycoon: ha, yeah…my 61 year old Dad plays fantasy baseball and football with me. It’s pretty cool. I finally got him into it a few years back. He knows his shizz pretty well, besides his obscene love for anything Yankee (he has Tex, Jeter, Grandy, Hughes, Pettitte, CC, Rivera, Vazquez). Plus he’s always the first one to pay his league dues, so it’s good to have one person you can count on. Ha!

    Poon, do you agree with Grey’s advice in not giving up Utley to get Kershaw? Obviously you both value Kershaw a bit better than Price. I’m not sure he would deal him, but I’m not sure I would want to drop Utley for him, either…

    I do have an offer out there for Haren, but I bet it gets shot down, per what I said earlier about this guy being the only other Razzball reader and he doesn’t like to deal with me because he thinks I’m his only true threat.

  36. vinko says:
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    Recommend starting Cueto tonight at the Phils? 14 team roto.
    -Thanks

  37. @royce!: Thanks, I’ll look at those links. It’s something that I’ve been thinking about a lot as I roster a number of GB pitchers who are exceeding FIP – Garcia, Interesting, I didn’t realize those numbers regarding LD%.

    @ThePoonTycoon: Definitely seems like something to consider case by case since the numbers need some context to really be effective I think. One thing that I’ve been looking at this season is a pitchers BABIP against vs. his entire staff’s BABIP against. This gives me a picture of how much is luck and how much is good team defense.

    I suppose the high K/9 pitchers that I’m talking about are lower tier guys like Kershaw, Sanchez, Morrow, Burnett (when he used to K people) who are more likely to walk batters as well as K them. I tend to shy away from those guys (for better or worse) and prefer control pitchers who may get hit more, since they’re throwing more strikes – they’re usually better bargains on draft day. I’m not really talking about elite pitchers like Tim, Doc or Waino – who have extremely good K/BB ratios.

    @Grey: No doubt. I understand you’re giving a brief look at xFIP/ERA splits and not going into detail on each pitcher, since it would be a pretty colossal task – one better left to the readers to sort out case by case I suppose. I’m just playing devils advocate, since I love a debate and I sometimes wonder the usefulness of some numbers that we throw around – especially when not placed in context.

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, I wasn’t crazy about getting Oswalt on 4 or so teams in the preseason, worrying that I was setting myself for trouble, but so far it’s been nice to have.

    @Wilsonian: That’s cool your Pops rocks the fantasy. Eh on Haren, unless you’re not paying much. Go for someone cheaper like Liriano or Floyd or Wandy.

    @vinko: Sure

    @3FingersBrown: Gotcha… Yeah, the devil’s in the details. To see your devil cliche and raise you my own.

  39. Ryan says:
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    @PoonTycoon, I wasn’t referring to trading Ubaldo for Liriano straight up for real, that was just an example of a guy who had a + FIP. Am I reading this right? The pitchers with the highest likelihood of their ERA’s going down are Wells, Narveson, Morrow, Liriano, etc. Correct? So a good Ubaldo trade would be like if I could flip him for Hanson and Verlander or something like that. Keep the K’s that Ubaldo brings, but get a couple guys with .81 and .64 expectant ERA drops. Now, last question, does that mean they’ll (hopefully) pitch LOWER than that for the rest of the season so that their ERA is .81 lower by the end of the season? Or does that mean that that’s what they’re ERA should average out to by the end? Thanks.
    R

  40. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @3FingersBrown: alot comes down to standings and whether you could see yourself keeping utley or not. not sure who your current fill-in 2B is, but if you are comfortable riding them the rest of the season, and aren’t planning on keeping utley, then i would do the deal. if utley was gonna be a cornerstone of your keeper haul prior to the injury, then i’d hold off. i think you said earlier you weren’t really planning on keeping him, but not sure.

  41. tourinct says:
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    I may have an opportunity to deal a catcher for some saves. Do you like Oye Como Va or Montero better the rest of the way? Do you think they are worth a Wilsom/Papelbon or just a Axford/Perez/Storen, or do I need some more moving parts?

  42. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: so you like the Wandy, eh? He’s actually a FA. I was waiting to see his next outing against STL before I decided to snag him. Would you drop any of the following for him, before his next start:

    Quentin, Aardsma, Axford, Richard? My other two closers are K-Rod, Capps. And I already snagged Floyd a month back after you said so…

  43. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Ryan: well that comes down to you perception of ratios. you can take the approach that over the course of a season everything evens out, and a 3.50 era guy will end the season around 3.50, whether he gets there with some awful months and some excellent months, or is just consistent all season. (this is usually how i view guys)

    the alternative is that a 3.50 era type guy is gonna put up 3.50 type numbers every start, and you should expect 3.50 era numbers every start, and if he has a bad couple of starts, then you shouldn’t necessarily expect a run of good starts to even out the era. i don’t really subscribe to this view too much because when you look at a SPs game log, he’ll have CG shutouts and games where he gives up 9 ER in 2 IP, and months of 1.50 eras and months of 4.50 eras, but it all evens out to him being about the type of pitcher you’d expect him to be.

  44. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I have him and Ubaldo in the keeper, so double nice.

    Can Baker give me the trifecta? Hmmmm…

  45. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @tourinct: you should be able to get much better than that 2nd tier of RPs you listed. i’d be content getting any reasonable closer with a secure job, and i’d just deal whichever of your 2 Cs is needed to get the best deal done.

  46. @Grey: Well played Grey.

    BTW just as I thought after his outburst last night… Figgy’s owner happily accepted the deal for Posey today, after leaving it to ripen on the vine for 3 days (SOB’s from Spain and is probably piss drunk now). I think it’s a great deal for both teams – he’s out of it and will have a cheap keeper next year. I need speed and MI depth.

    @royce!: tERA is exactly what I was thinking about – giving different values to different kinds of batted balls. I’ve seen it before on Fangraphs player entries, but never really took the time to understand the formula used to come up with that number. Thanks for turning that lightbulb on in my head.

  47. TheRealTaz says:
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    Grey, somebody just dropped Pablo Sandoval in my (keeper) league? Is he worth grabbing? I have Pujols and Wright, but is he worth picking up for free in the hopes that I can swap him for something?

  48. TheRealTaz says:
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    Probably a setup guy or closer (my league counts save/holds, and I have five relievers: Rhodes, Hanrahan, Axford, Clippard, and Lyon).

  49. donnie baseball says:
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    what to do with I.Stewart? I know he was your main man in the spring, but he has been really disapointing. Where’s the power?

  50. Sucklingduck says:
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    @Grey: My entire pitching staff in on your list! Except Nolasco….that said, i just got offered Hamels for Nolasco. Pull the trigger?

    Besides the league and division each pitches in, what is your reasoning behind liking Kershaw more than Price? Price has been striking out more hitters lately and Kershaw still has a +4BB/9. They have an identical WAR and Kershaw’s XFIP is a full run higher than his ERA. Just wondering if there was anything else besides league and park factors why you prefer Kershaw.

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @TheRealTaz: I’d lose Hanrahan or Lyon, flip a coin.

    @donnie baseball: He’s in a funk, I dropped him in a 12 team league the other day. If you have other options, you need to move on.

    @Sucklingduck: Hamels slightly over Nolasco but it’s not a trade I’d make. Kershaw’s K-rate is 10+, it’s a lot better than Price.

  52. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    Berkman homered twice today. That’s 5 HRs in 4 games.

    I’m thinking I should drop Pedro Alvarez for him.

    There. Done. Welcome home, Fat Elvis.

  53. mr baseball says:
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    MR KENNEDY – I admire the amount of K’s he gives his fantasy managers but at what cost – he been only pitching 5 or 6 innings and he is giving up way too many runs to be a winning pitcher in the Major Leagues – I would like your permission to drop him Grey and play the field

  54. Steve says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: @Grey: Thanks to Berkman, Posey and Prado, among others, Hippo has 11 donks in the last two days in the RCL Originals. EIGHT, count ‘em EIGHT, yesterday!

    Most inconvenient.

  55. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Well, home runs were certainly on high-rotate yesterday, but it looks like he’s still pretty active.

  56. mr baseball says:
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    THANK YOU FANS

    MISSION 33 IS A SUCCESS

    Yankee fans, with your help Nick Swisher of the New York Yankees has defeated Kevin Youkilis of the Red Sox in the American League Final Vote!

  57. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Wow, you sure busted out the whoopin’ stick.

    Speaking of whoopin’ sticks, I’m against my sister in H2H this week (she’s back in NZ now so I can stop managing against myself), and after three and a bit days, I’m up 9-7 in donks…

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mr baseball: Did Votto win the other one?

    @Steve: It’s been a very donk heavy week so far. Maybe the week prior was pee test week around the MLB.

  59. alex says:
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    could posey get ROTY? he faces Strasburg tomorrow thats gonna be a good matchup.

  60. Steve says:
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    @Grey: He did.

  61. Sucklingduck says:
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    @mr baseball: Nick Swisher, his stupid haircut and his plethora of fist, chest and forearm bumps can go to hell.
    @Grey: Thanks for clarifying ur Kershaw preferance.

    Which side do you like: Panda, Markakis vs. Rasmus, Lind, Cueto in a nonkeeper?

  62. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @alex: Sure, if he hits a homer every game until October.

    @Steve: Thanks!

    @Sucklingduck: Neither side? I’d take Rasmus.

  63. Steve says:
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    @Grey: You mean you haven’t been refreshing the mlb.com homepage to find out?

  64. Carl Spackler says:
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    Grey, love to get your thoughts on what the hell is going on with Braun. Is this the lowest possible value he could be all season? I have a chance to possibly make a trade for him with an owner who is fed up. I give Either/Beltran or maybe Hart/Beltran. Is the juice worth the squeeze?

    Who would you want from here on out Oswalt or Grienke?

  65. Martin says:
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    @grey-fowler or laporta if I have no specific needs?

  66. Joe says:
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    According to Fangraphs (I sorted it by UZR/150, hope that’s a good category to use), the top 4 fielding teams in the league are the Padres, Rays, Giants, and Rangers. 8 out of the 13 pitchers you listed play for those 4 teams. Seems to me that there’s no big reason to worry about those 8 pitchers really regressing unless they get traded or something – they have great defense behind them and their ERA should continue to stay lower than their xFIP.

  67. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Well, I forgot about him until just now so it’s too late.

    I’ll be winding my way down Baker Street. Time will tell if I end up light in the head and dead on my feet.

    And whether I’ll need to drink the night away and forget about everything.

  68. chris says:
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    in a dynasty keeper league where you keep everyone, which side do you like?

    Justin Upton
    or
    Buster Posey/Trevor Cahill

  69. GopherDay says:
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    @chris: Justin Upside for sure!

    @Martin: If you have no needs, then pick up LaPorta if you would like homers, and Fowler if you would like homers.

    @Grey: Who do you like more going forward? Castro or Sean-Rod?

  70. Donnie Baseball says:
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    Better stash? B. Allen or D. Brown?

    I guess, who do you think will be traded A. Laroche or J. Werth?

  71. chris says:
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    Id say Dom Brown, top prospect right now who is moving into a great lineup and great stadium

  72. Donnie Baseball says:
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    @chris:
    I agree with you on who would be better, but I’m just not sure I can see them actually trading Werth right now. I’m thinking Allen has a better chance at being up soon.

  73. yankees2010 says:
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    Grey,
    I understand your point (and the numbers) about Hudson being lucky, but I am still holding onto him. I watched him go against Florida on the weekend and he looked really good. He gave up 3 runs, but I he pitched 8 innings and struck out 7. He was matching Nolasco pitch for pitch. I will take those numbers any day.

    By the way, thanks Grey and keep up the great work!

  74. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Hmmm. Doesn’t feel quite so funny now. I can’t trust the guy at all now. Could replace him (10-team keeper) with Floyd, CJ, Niese, Arroyo, Hammel, LeBlanc or Wandy.

    Which one? Floyd?

  75. San Jacinto says:
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    Can anyone hook me up with a scouting report on A. Soriano going forward? Thinking about dealing him for Posey.

  76. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Grey: Looks like Cueto got hit on the cup(holder 4 stick and berries) in one of the weirdest plays ive ever seen…

  77. @mr baseball: I’m happy about Swish making it. Now some of my opponents might believe me when I say he’s having a career year and maybe I can get a good arm for him.

    @Joe: Team defense is the first thing I look at when I see those extreme xFIP/ERA differentials. I think it can go a long way towards finding out how lucky a pitcher may actually be. Sometimes a guy is simply put into a position to succeed and does.

  78. @Grey: I’ve got a close eye on Wade Davis. How many more lousy starts you think the Rays give him before Hellboy gets the call? Who do you like better, Hellboy or Mad Bum?

    I like Hellboy’s stuff, but Bum’s got the easier schedule in the NL West. Close call huh?

  79. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @San Jacinto: I’d want Soriano over Posey unless it’s a keeper.

    @ThE sHiT: Ha… Damn, I missed it.

  80. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @ThE sHiT: yeah that was great,a guy on 1st scores and the ball never gets past votto

  81. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: 10 team 7 keeper(no time limit) 5×5 Roto

    Team A gets:

    Youk, Cruz, Kershaw

    Team B gets:

    Longo, J-Upton, Jered Weaver

  82. San Jacinto says:
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    @Grey: It’s a 7 man keeper. But I have Oye Slamma Va. Hold off for something better after this week?

  83. San Jacinto says:
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    @San Jacinto: Ten team, BTW.

  84. Steve says:
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    @Grey: How about Ethier + Ibanez for Braun? Or CQ + Ibanez?

  85. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @timSTi: I want Longoria.

    @San Jacinto: It’s fine if you need an OF bat. Soriano’s a 25 homer guy with a few steals.

    @Steve: I’d take Braun in both trades, not sure if either would make it happen though.

  86. Steve says:
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    @Grey: No – the Braun owner is not a dope, either.

    Try the Ibanez one first?

  87. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: I’m the team with Youk, Cruz, + Kershaw. He countered my offer with

    MY

    Pujols, Kershaw, Price

    for

    HIS

    Longo, J-UP, Wainwright.

    Id have Youk to replace Pujols. But Kershaw + Price are my top SP’s and was planning on keeping them along with 5 bats. 10 team 7 keepers.

  88. Steve says:
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    @Steve: You’re the dope.

    @Grey: Try the Ethier one first?

  89. pjtres says:
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    lind snapping out of it?

  90. Fletch says:
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    @Grey: LeBron dealing…I mean Latos dealing again tonight.

  91. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, Ethier.

    @timSTi: Looks fair if that’s what you need.

    @pjtres: Would be long overdue.

    @Fletch: Yup

  92. d2bnz says:
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    In the last week I have been beseiged by one of my frienemies with offers for Stanton and de la Rosa, and I have up to date been politely rejecting them , they come accompanied with commentary about how the schmohawks he’s offering will help me compete etc
    Anybody have a witty comeback I can zing him with????

  93. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: technically i need pitching. But this is more for a next year and beyond deal. I have Pujols at 1st and Youk at 3rd but with Youk’s gonna lose 3B eligibility. Pretty much boils down to Which set of keepers looks better:

    Pujols, Phillips, Youk, Kemp, Cruz, Price, & Kershaw

    or

    Youk, Phillips, Longoria, Kemp, Cruz, J-Upton, Wainwright?

    Last or, he just texted me this offer:

    MY Price for HIS J-Upton & Scherzer.

    Take that and run or work on that Pujols & Longo deal mentioned above.

  94. Steve says:
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    @Grey: 5 more for the hippo today. That’s 13 in the last two days.

  95. Deeeeeez Nuts says:
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    Jay Bruce or Willingham?

  96. barker says:
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    to grey and everyone all opinions welcome
    20 team league 30 man deep rosters 5OF hlds QS
    just offerred to me in the league i just lost peavy in would drop chacin or zimmerman

    i give holliday i get lincecum and pierre

    current OF holliday pence hawpe matsui burrell francouer

    current IF C barajas 1B a gon 2b kel jo 3b cantu ss furcal CI berkman MI hudson 2 util ike davis and alex gonzalez

    starters Cliff lee verlander livan cecil volquez d hudson zimm

    relievers SPvillanueva SPchacin soriano axford wood benoit feliciano storen

    dl webb dl nick johnson dl teahen

    i could prolly use the stls but your prolly gunna say no
    i dont own holliday anywhere else and livan and his 12 QS (leads team) will turn into a pumpkin soon and i think frenchy aint long for RF in metville
    can i take the power hit for the freak??
    help me obi grey kenobi your my only hope…

  97. BSA says:
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    @Steve: Just imagine the comments coming when he sees that his power hitters came through..UGH!

  98. Steve says:
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    @BSA: Just tell him to look at the scoreboard.

    Oh – and it’s Miami for LeBron.

  99. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Steve: i wouldnt watch the lebron thing,it was getting on my nerves hearing it all week,hippo isnt even into the baseball this year

  100. Steve says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: I know – that’s what makes it even more galling. I’m the closest to him in HR and RBI.

    Wasn’t watching (not on TV here), just following the Google live news feed.

  101. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Steve: been a weird reds game,come on votto,tie it up

  102. BSA says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: @Steve: Steve I believe he is bearing down my HR RBI ass right now. Even though he may be only updating weekly, he is keeping an eye on those Cards.

  103. mr baseball says:
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    Grey Says:

    @mr baseball: Did Votto win the other one?

    I get emails from the yanks mets red sox and marlins so that was the email I got from the yanks

  104. Steve says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: I’d prefer a Lidge save, but each to his own.

  105. Steve says:
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    @BSA: We both are ;-)

  106. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    wheeler getting the call in 9th for tampa up 3?

  107. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Steve: lidge is done

  108. mr baseball says:
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    stuff I heard

    Lebron James is going to join Joey Votto and the Cincinnati Reds

    Nick Johnson is going to replace Cano in the Home Run Derby

  109. Mr2Bits says:
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    Grey : What do you do with players like Lidge? You need the saves but they blow a save every 1-2 weeks. Do you ride it out and hope they don’t lose their job and turn it around or do you try and trade him for a #4 pitcher?

  110. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    nice to see these navy boys getting all psyched up , watching real athletes .

    maybe if buchholz (and others) followed a work-out regimen like this one ,
    he could make it around the bases without pulling up lame .

    http://tinyurl.com/3777q82

  111. BSA says:
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    @Steve: I feel that furry kiwi skin ticklin’
    The only way you overtake is when I have 4 players not playing and no pitching. :)

  112. Mr2Bits says:
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    or do you just bench him wen he plays the dame Reds?

  113. BSA says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Soriano shut down for the All Star Break. Maddon revisiting 2009 for old time sake.

  114. Mr2Bits says:
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    Grey : Drop Pelfrey and bring up JDLR tomorrow? Or would you drop Dickey. Kuroda?

  115. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @BSA: probably not a bad idea,but for fantasy teams,it stinks

  116. @AL KOHOLIC: I hope so. I just grabbed Madson and was happy to see him possibly get a win. So much for that. Great, now maybe Madson can get his turn to blow saves again.

  117. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @d2bnz: Tell them you’re holding out for LeBron.

    @timSTi: Give Price for Upton.

    @Steve: Wow, guess it pays to not pay attention.

    @Deeeeeez Nuts: Bruce

    @barker: You have Lee and Verlander, why do you need another ace?

    @mr baseball: Ha

    @Mr2Bits: If a guy is called the closer, that’s all I need to know.

    @big o: Cool

    @Mr2Bits: Drop both for both.

  118. Terrence Mann says:
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    Wait a minute. Wilsonian is in a league with his dad and Steve is in a league with his sister? WTF?

    My family wants me to come watch Dale Jr. drive in a circle 500 times on Sundays and tries to convince me that seeing the Twilight midnight premier is a good time.

    Screw you guys.

  119. BSA says:
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    @Grey: Holdin’ out for LeBron – Now THAT is funny as I enjoy his recent uptick.

  120. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Ha… I’m with you. My family doesn’t watch baseball, let alone play fantasy.

  121. d2bnz says:
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    given the current climate I LOVE “holdin’ out for Le Bron”
    thanks Grey

  122. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Damn Hippo. He’s nearly 30 points behind me but ruining my efforts to make any meaningful progress!

  123. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @d2bnz: No LeProblem.

    @Steve: Just like Hippo!

  124. BSA says:
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    @Steve: I paid him. Check is in the mail.

  125. Steve says:
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    @Grey: From memory, you’re a Swisher owner, right?

    Why do I get the feeling that every hit is bringing a calamitous regression one pitch closer?

  126. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ha, totally re: Swisher. Just one of those guys I’ve placed in my lineup and have waited for the bottom to fall out, knowing it will happen, yet still hasn’t.

  127. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Reversed him!

    Tempting fate by saying this, but I have him, Dunn, Uggla, Grandy, Ibanez and BJ on the same team in the RCL. How I’m not hitting .245, I don’t know.

    Could still happen of course…

  128. Dingo says:
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    I think Gregerson is losing his MR magic. Who’s a better add for both save speculation and ratio help: Motte or Hanrahanrahanrahan?

  129. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, I have Dunn, Uggla, Swisher and Ibanez on numerous teams. My runs are hurting more than my average. I just reversed your reverse.

    @Dingo: Hanrahananananan…

  130. barker says:
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    shallow 20 team league

    i give vasquez qualls jayson nix i get street carlos guillen

    starters johan javier pelfry kershaw d hudson dl j de la rosa
    relievers benoit dotel c perez axford storen qualls

    no room in lineup for qualls was just gunna drop him and nix and i need a decent 2b backup (reyes and zobrist only MI)
    kid wants vasquez bad
    will i regret it or what

  131. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I’m probably the same. I’m a 9/10 in Runs, but 11 is about 70 away.

  132. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @barker: I’d take Vazquez.

    @Steve: We need some dysentery up in here!

  133. elwood blues says:
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    I would give up Byrd, Walker, IKennedy for Torres, FSanchez, and Lindstrom (whose a FA)

    Worth it?

  134. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @elwood blues: How is Lindstrom a free agent but Walker and Sanchez are owned? Deal looks fine for you.

  135. elwood blues says:
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    @grey, sorry he WILL BE a FA at the end of the year for our league

  136. barker says:
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    12 team roto OBP counted

    fowler gomes juan rivera carlos guillen colvin seth smith ibanez burrell
    please rank ROS

    would u drop matsui for any

  137. Steve says:
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    @Grey: He can’t stay off base! Get around to score!

  138. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Grey: I read that Snider might be back after the ASB if he keeps raking in his rehab stint. Wut r the chances he picks up where he left off b4 the injury? I understand wrist injuries can linger but it seems they havent rushed him at all and he might b totally over it. BTW, my wk schedule startin nxt wk has me entering at 930am. So, YEAH!, ill b able 2 read razzball in the morning once again…

  139. Steve says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: A curse on you and your Kershaw!

  140. mr baseball says:
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    FIP’ing You The Bird – The New York Knicks Organization – they just picked up three pieces of crap – that two more pieces than I just unloaded in the toilet

  141. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Don’t tell me Grandy is starting to hit…

  142. danimal35 says:
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    i’m getting kinda tired of watching basestealers (that i own) get great jumps only to have their SB wiped away by some weak ass hack by the batter (see Bartlett and Gardner today)…as if it isn’t bad enough that i have owned BJ and Grandy all year…can i at least get some kinda return on the investment

  143. cruisinkc says:
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    Trade Garza for Carlos Pena? Pena would fill my UTL spot….

  144. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @elwood blues: Gotcha…

    @barker: Fowler for speed, Ibanez for power. I’d drop Rivera for Matsui.

    @Steve: Ha

    @ThE sHiT: Yeah, I’ll be covering him in tomorrow’s Buy/Sell. Grab him if you have room. Nice re: work.

    @mr baseball: Ha

    @Steve: Would be nice finally.

    @danimal35: I hear ya. Was hoping for something from Bartlett. Anything…

    @cruisinkc: Sure, if you need power.

  145. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Swish! This is getting ridiculous.

    But not as ridiculous as owning Aardsma.

    At least I got rid of League yesterday…

  146. Steve says:
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    Oswalt, Lidge and Aardsma. Two steps forward and seven steps back.

  147. Wilsonian says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Haha…sorry man! It took me a few years, but I finally got my Pops into it. It’s pretty cool. Always gives us something to talk about, and to shit talk each other, which is great for family bonding. Much better than Twilight and cars constantly turning left…at least I assume so, not that I’m into that sort of thing…

  148. peter says:
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    @Steve: Terrible. Why did I bother to sit down at my computer?

    @Grey: Hold tight on Granderson? Dump him for Fowler? Or maybe I’ll dump G. Jones/J. Gomes for Fowler. Having the two of those schmohawks on my team has been been infuriating in the last 2-3 weeks. My squad is suffering from severe yawnstipation, and I blame them. Even their names sound like they’re almost brothers.

  149. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: The funny thing is, my running birthday present from my Dad every year is the baseball package on Directv… he’s basically the reason I’m addicted to this shit. He waited until I was 21 to take me to Fenway, Yankee Stadium and Cooperstown so we could drink together…

  150. peter says:
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    @peter: Edit: not GRANDERSON… I meant Nyjer Morgan. Ughh.. Yeah, that’s how it’s been going, lately.

  151. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Grey: I had the feeling u would say 2 grab him once i read the positive reports yesterday. Well my OF consists of Pacman, Boesch, and Cruz with Robot currently on the bench. Ive been playing the hot hand between Pacman and Robot but know that Snider has tons more upside than Robot and started 2 tap into that b4 he got injured. So are any of these guys droppable 4 a Snider stash? I have dlR, Jaime, Medlen as my “weakest” pitchers also. Are maybe any of these guys worth dropping 4 Snider? BTW, im gd on pitching depth…

  152. Steve says:
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    @peter: You could be forgiven for thinking that you should be dropping Granderson for somebody – ANYBODY!

    I own him everywhere and it’s been awful.

    Ugh – the greatest post-season reliever of all time is probably not going to let Aardsma get a vulture win either…

  153. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: In my HUGE 8 Team H2H Keeper, would you burn an effigy of Aardsma and then drop his worthless ass for Wandy (Aardsma/Axford/K-Rod/Capps are my “closers”?

    Also, Annabelle or Hunter for the remainder of ’10 in a 16 Team H2Her?

  154. Wilsonian says:
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    @Wilsonian: or would you toss Aardsma to the curb for Thornton?

  155. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Yup

    @peter: Robot hasn’t been bad has he? I’d lose Gomes for Fowler if you need a spark plug and steals.

    @Wilsonian: That’s pretty cool.

    @ThE sHiT: Eh, I’d hold for now.

    @Wilsonian: Sure, grab Wandy. I don’t think either of those SPs are worth owning for the reminder of 2010. Hunter…

  156. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Grey: Ill gv dlR a couple starts 2 c wut hes about now that hes healthy. That time should allow me 2 assess Sniders future as well. My leaguemates are slow 2 pick up players who should b owned. Volquez was barely picked up on sunday… only time i was beat 2 the wire after reading the must add so and so here was a saturday morning when i was really hungover…

  157. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Grey: Gd nite kind sir, i gotta get sum sleep as my alarm will play “Beautiful Day” by U2 @ 4am.

  158. peter says:
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    @Grey: Robot? Nah, he hasn’t been BAD. But 2 HR in the last month (100+ ABs), isn’t exactly inspiring. (My) Carl Pavano gave up more HR than that in his last start.

  159. ViagraFalls says:
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    @Grey: With dlR coming back tomorrow off the DL, I do own him and am left with a problem as to what to do with him. His K rate, if healthy, is obviously great, but he would have to needless to say prove he is mostly back to people before they start him. In his absence, I had replaced him with the DL space given me with Pelfrey then C. Richard… my other pitchers are Halladay, Kershaw, J. Sanchez, Marmol and Valverde…but now if I want to keep dlR am going to have to drop either a pitcher or an offensive player. Neither sounds enticing.

    I don’t want to miss out if it looks like dlR (aside from getting roughed up his last start in AAA) if he comes back throwing fire, but I know the moment I drop someone like Richard or Sanchez that they are obviously gone as soon as they clear waivers. Is he worth keeping, dropping another piece for?

    V-Mart (on the bench), C. Pena, Cano, McGehee, Tulo (on the DL)/Furcal (as replacement), McGehee, Holliday, T. Hunter, Grandy, Hart, Heyward (on the bench) and G. Sanchez fill out my offense right now until guys like V-Mart and hopefully Heyward come back well enough and soon. What should I do with dlR?

    Thanks, Grey

  160. yankees2010 says:
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    Hey Grey, did you notice Gardenhire finally put D. Young higher than the 8 hole in the order? Bout time. I thought his lineup cars were printed at the beginnning of the season and he couldn’t change them. Amen!

  161. fitz says:
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    @pjtres: 1-4 with 3 K’s

    NOPE

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