The last time we looked at FIP for fantasy baseball was back in March. On that list of guys that will fail were Edwin Jackson, Jurrjens, Happ, Arroyo, Wolf, Johan and *small voice* Cain. Now that we have a decent enough sample size for the new season, we can check to see where we’re at in 2010. To remind you, xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month of the season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Livan Hernandez – -4.37. Using xFIP to tell you Livan isn’t this good is like using Stephen Hawking as your lifeline on the $100 question.
Rich Harden – -1.12. Right now, Harden is getting lucky with men on base, balls batted into play and he’s walking the park. As the summer heats up in Texas, there’s a good chance it’ll all catch up with Harden. Or he’ll just get hurt. Tomato-squished tomahto.
Mitch Talbot – -2.01. His K/9 is 3.15; his BB/9 is 3.93. Um, not good.
Jon Garland – -2.64. I wouldn’t start him outside of Petco anyway.
Jeff Niemann – -2.14. Niemann!!!
Jamie Garcia – -2.60. Right now, his balls batted into play is showing he’s been lucky, so there could be some Liquid Paper taken to his ERA. He does after all have a 1.13 ERA, you knew that wasn’t holding.
Wade Davis – -1.80. He has a near 5 BB/9 and he’s leaving just over 85% of men on base with a .231 BABIP. All together now, Wade to the slaughter…
Tim Hudson – -1.66. Somehow Hudson has a 3.45 K/9. To give you an idea, Pineiro has a 4.85 K/9. I think Dr. James Andrews took out Hudson’s Ks.
C.J. Wilson – -2.51. Decent Ks and his FIP only takes him up to 3.12. It’s his homers allowed that are abnormally low, as in nonexistent as of right now. In Arlington, that’ll catch up to him, but since his ERA is 1.65 it Wilson gives a mid- to high-3 ERA. That sounds about right.