The last time we looked at FIP for fantasy baseball was back in March. On that list of guys that will fail were Edwin Jackson, Jurrjens, Happ, Arroyo, Wolf, Johan and *small voice* Cain. Now that we have a decent enough sample size for the new season, we can check to see where we’re at in 2010. To remind you, xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month of the season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Livan Hernandez – -4.37. Using xFIP to tell you Livan isn’t this good is like using Stephen Hawking as your lifeline on the $100 question.
Rich Harden – -1.12. Right now, Harden is getting lucky with men on base, balls batted into play and he’s walking the park. As the summer heats up in Texas, there’s a good chance it’ll all catch up with Harden. Or he’ll just get hurt. Tomato-squished tomahto.
Mitch Talbot – -2.01. His K/9 is 3.15; his BB/9 is 3.93. Um, not good.
Jon Garland – -2.64. I wouldn’t start him outside of Petco anyway.
Jeff Niemann – -2.14. Niemann!!!
Jamie Garcia – -2.60. Right now, his balls batted into play is showing he’s been lucky, so there could be some Liquid Paper taken to his ERA. He does after all have a 1.13 ERA, you knew that wasn’t holding.
Wade Davis – -1.80. He has a near 5 BB/9 and he’s leaving just over 85% of men on base with a .231 BABIP. All together now, Wade to the slaughter…
Tim Hudson – -1.66. Somehow Hudson has a 3.45 K/9. To give you an idea, Pineiro has a 4.85 K/9. I think Dr. James Andrews took out Hudson’s Ks.
C.J. Wilson – -2.51. Decent Ks and his FIP only takes him up to 3.12. It’s his homers allowed that are abnormally low, as in nonexistent as of right now. In Arlington, that’ll catch up to him, but since his ERA is 1.65 it Wilson gives a mid- to high-3 ERA. That sounds about right.
Doug Fister – -2.69. About to become Twisted Fister.
In a vacuum Konerko/Cano or Tex and a. Hill who wins?
I have J-lo at 2nd base. I really hate him. Would you trade any of the following for KJ and in what order: Gio, Kennedy,Correia, Scherzer, Peavy. Any of these you would not give for KJ?
For Grey and anyone else…
Desmond & Floyd for Nunez? The deal would basically amount to this after it’s over…
I give: Desmond & Floyd
I get: Pennington & Nunez
Do it or stand pat?
Very nervous about this Jeff Niemann start at Safeco today . . . M’s on a 5-game skid, Milton Bradley asking for help, Grey calling out Niemann on -2.14 ERA-xFIP difference . . .
Then there’s Matt Cain trying to close out a sweep of the Marlins in Florida . . .
Yo, Grey, thoughts/suggestions on the below two starts?
Niemann @ SEA
Cain @ FLA
@Jarrad: I’m currently last in SV with -1 S-BS and all the #1′s & #2′s on the closer depth charts are taken…
I have Garcia and Davis. I will ignore this info and continue with my delusions that they’re awesome.
Wilson has been great for my numbers.
Hudson has been a head scratcher since I picked him due to his pre-Andrews K numbers. Then again is Atlanta striking anyone out. Maybe the cake design wasn’t a misprint?!
We’ll see -
@Dough boy: Tex side, but I wouldn’t make that trade.
@Sos: I’d trade any of them except Peavy. Gio, Correia, Scherzer…
@Jarrad: Eh
@Arthur O: Start em both.
@BSA: Hehe
@Grey: Thanks for the input!
I’m guessing it was a “copy/paste & forgot to replace” issue… but you’ve got difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for all of last year in the intro. It’s supposed to be for this year, right? Just want to make sure what data is factored into the comparison, here.
@Grey: Take Arthur’s one step further. I have Niemann, Cain and Nolasco. Start em all?
@Awesomus Maximus: Doh… Yeah, cut and paste thing. Thanks!
@floridamach1: Start em.
@ GREY and ANYONE:
Which side?
A) Reyes/Carlos Gonzalez/Haren
B) Tex/Kershaw/Bartlett
@Tony: Depends on need. Fair deal. I prefer the Tex side
@Tony: Haren side.
@Grey – when will you come out with the unlucky list?
Grey, where do you get this info? At Fangraphs I can only find ERA-FIP, not ERA-xFIP.
@Tony: Depends
@floridamach1: @Grey: lol well i’ve got one vote for A and one vote for B….. anyone else?
@Grey: Its H2H, so if Kershaw rights the ship and Haren does his norm then do you still like the Haren side?
@Tony: Like Chuck-D said, “The B-Side Wins”
@Tom Emanski: I’m a Garcia owner in several leagues, but this news doesn’t surprise or worry me. Even with an ERA correction, I still see him acquiring mucho Ws with that offense behind him. Or are we both delusional?
Am I correct in thinking that Howard is better to have in H2H than Fielder, since the rate stats don’t matter as much? It also helps that Howard going nuts around playoff time.
@William: Next week.
@Mark Geoffriau: I did the math.
@Tony: Either way you slice it, it’s a fair trade that’s about needs. If Reyes rights the ship and Bartlett continues to be yawnstipating, it’s not close for the Tex side.
@Awesomus Maximus: hmmm two for B, grey is for A…..
i like the B side kinda which is what I’d be RECEIVING, i need help in batting average, we count singles, doubles, triples, HR’s, 10 cats in all on offense, been getting slaughtered, alot of my team should turn it around (pence, bay, etc).
@Tom Emanski: on? like i just said above…..
@Tom Emanski: i love howard in H2H, beast down the line, when you need him most…
Would I be giving too much if I sent J Guillen and Gregg for Headley and Gavin Floyd? I have twice as many saves as the team in second place and don’t know how long Guillen will be worth rostering in a ten team league.
@Awesomus Maximus: Agreed. I don’t think we’re delusional. He’s a Dave Duncan pitcher (leads the league in GB) with a good offense. The only issue is health.
@Grey: haha alot depends on the “righting of the ships”
@Tony: I’ll go A as well. Tex is the best player in this trade (though if Reyes turns back into Reyes ’08, he might be the best player from here on out), but side A is three solid contributors.
Side B is Tex; a very young pitcher who may be great this year or next year or maybe the year after that (and I say this as a Kershaw owner – -more like BBershaw!); and a guy who’ll fill the hole where Reyes used to be.
All told, I think A side comes away with the better haul.
If you’re getting B, I think you’re paying too much — why not break this trio down and try to improve by trading just Reyes, or Haren, etc.?
@royce!: Eh
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Yup
Grey – What trade value does Adam Jones reasonably have right now? Do his peripherals show confidence in a rebound?
@Tom Emanski: The only reason I went with Penny over Garcia (I could have picked up either) is that I worry about Garcia’s walks. His BBs were high in the minors and they’re still high now. Pair that with a BABIP correction and you could see some ugly outings.
Penny won’t give you the Ks, but he walks no one, his WHIP is tiny, and he’s got that I-used-to-date-Alyssa-Milano swagger.
Let’s just say, I offered Penny for Aramis and when the guy asked for Slowey, I was kind of happy. My WHiP breathed a sigh of relief.
Ultimately I see them both as 12W, 3.50 ERA kind of guys, with Penny having a better WHIP and Garcia a better K/9. Kind of like Ryan Dempster Lite, if that’s not an oxymoron.
@Tony: @Awesomus Maximus: My bad… I read “Carlos Gomez” (probably because I just dropped him in two leagues). I’d say it’s a pretty close trade, and it probably comes down to exactly what you mentioned… do you believe Kershaw can right the ship? And do you believe Haren is going to tank? Even if he does, Haren’s most likely good for 200 Ks… can’t count on that from Kershaw.
I think I’d still take the B-Side, but it’s a virtual coin flip.
@Baron Von Vulturewins: been trying to move haren, NO LUCK, haven’t really thrown reyes out there, but a guy mentioned wanting him…. personally i dont really need tex, but he’s thru the worst part of his year, so he’d be money….
i haven’t offered it, i was just thinking, and overpaying probably again… i need to mix some things up, this might not be the mix i need… or i need to drink more? one or the other?
DRINK!
@Grey: I knew BBershaw was too good to be mine — than I looked it up and it’s actually yours.
DAMN YOU RAZZBALL GET OUT OF MY HEAD IT’S LIKE YOU’RE IN MY DREAMS
@Awesomus Maximus: 200 K’s is not as important in my league 10×10. I need quality Innings, we have a 32 inning min, many times once thats reached with solid stats all pitchers are benched.
Hey Grey, what about what pitchers are due to get better?
Sorry, read through the comments and got my answer.
The Hawking line was hilarious BTW.
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Very good advice on the “break it down” front… especially when there are so many large “ifs” involved.
Just curious… have we passed the point where pre-season expectations outweigh this season’s performance? Because if you break this trade down by pre-season Grey-rank, you’ve got:
35/121/51 vs. 6/77/87
That’s a slam dunk for the B-side… so to me, you have to basically be throwing out preseason expectations to be saying A-side is the clear winner in the trade.
@Big Nate: Another slow starter, maybe Kershaw. A hot starter that someone doesn’t believe in, maybe Konerko.
@Big Nate: For what it’s worth, I just traded Chase Headly for Adam Jones. So if you’re looking to trade for Jones, you could also deal a guy who has a high ranking now, but probably won’t end up in the top 50 batters come the end of the season.
What are your thoughts on Cain. His fip looks good but his baisp is still low .260.
Would you trade Cain and Cantu for Beckett.
@Big Nate: Oh I read that like you were trying to trade FOR Adam Jones, but it seems more likely you were talking about trying to trade him away. My bad.
@Awesomus Maximus: I think you have to evaluate with a mix of preseason expectations and the player in question.
Neither Bartlett nor Kershaw have a proven track record. Preseason projections are always a combo of what we should expect/what we might see. As the season goes on, some of that “might see” has to fall away.
For example, I’m not going to pay for Bartlett ’09 when Bartlett ’10 looks nothing like last year’s model. But I’ll try to acquire, say, Aramis Ramirez even if Aramis ’10 stinks — because there’s enough past record to go on to suggest a bounceback.
Similarly, I think CarGo is the opposite of Bartlett — his preseason projections were tempered by his lack of a track record. But he’s panning out just as one might expect. Top prospect + breakout couple of months in ’09 + great hitting environment + hot start suggests he’s exactly as advertised. So his value goes up while Bartlett’s goes down.
In short, you kind of have to wing it. Or ask Grey. He won’t steer you wrong.
Ian Desmond is on the DL, should I pick him up and try to sell Kelly Johnson or Ian Stewart?
ah my brain is frizzled, I mean he is a FA
@japhy: Not crazy about that trade.
@Bodymore: On the DL? What happened? What? Depends what you’re selling guys for, but he’s a step down from them.
@Bodymore: Ah…
In an OBP league which side do you like:
G. Floyd and B. Phillips or J. Garcia, McGehee, and A-Jax?
Does this team need a shakeup? It’s been sluggish except for the last two weeks.
C- R. Martin 1B- A-Gonz 2B- Phillips 3B- R.Zimmerman SS- Reyes
OF- R. Braun, J. Hamilton C. Gonzalez UTIL- Votto
Bench-I. Stewart
SP- Greinke, J. Santana
RP- KRod, Valverde
P- Aardsma, Billingsley, Oswalt
Bench- K. Slowey, F. Liriano, J. Niemann, J. Sanchez, P. Hughes
DL- Bedard
Some FAs in my league: Bats- Aramis Ramirez, Brett Gardner, Big Papi, Denard Span, Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran (DL stash?), Ryan Doumit, Krispie young
Pitchers- Ted Lilly, Javy Vazquez (will he turn it around?), Octavio Dotel, Joba (if Mo goes out for an extended period of time), Ian Kennedy, Gio Gonzalez.
With all this xFIP talk, why is everyone down on Masterson? The numbers suggest a very unlucky pitcher with an xFIP floating near 3. What’s your take, Grey?
@B.J.: it’s a 10 team yahoo daily H2H league.
@Grey Not sure yet, just saw he hit a couple homers recently and that he was available. It’s a keeper league so I was considering his future upside too. I picked up Ross and Rowand to fill out my lineup today so I have a couple of roster spots to play with…2 moves left for the week though.
Which side?
Adam Jones & Haren FOR Zimmerman & Zito
@Grey: Hey, Grey. I need advice on this (very fair) trade offer in a keeper league. I am leading the league (roto) by about 10 points, but I am in last place for saves (Gregg and F. Morales…ugh). Anyhoo, would you give up 3 years of David Price for F. Cordero and 1 more year of Billingsley?
Thanks in advance for your advice!
@Grey: Twisted Fister….Nice!
Medlen or Scott Olsen?
Just noticed that Andrus was available. I’ve got Bartlett, but he hasn’t been all that exciting, but I’m a little leary of dropping him this early. Any opinions on dropping the wine cooler for Andrus?
@zorob: if i am giving up price for 3 more years, i want a damn near untouchable closer.
in fact, i really don’t know that i would trade price for the next 3 years for any closer.
Fair trade in a bubble: Krispie/Bucchy for CarGo (the COL variety)?
@Oregon Nut Cups: Among other things, FIP and xFIP correct for when pitchers give up a bunch of hits in a a row, since in most cases, hits will be more evenly distributed over the course of a game. In the case of Masterson, he’s demonstrated a huge career platoon split that shows no sign of going away. Lefties have a .449 BABIP against Masterson, and while that number is probably just a bit inflated, he’s still going to give up lots of hits to them. As long as managers are able to stack their lineups with good left-handed hitters, then he’ll probably continue to give up hits in bunches, meaning that he won’t fully regress to his xFIP-predicted level.
That said, he does get a ton of strikeouts and groundballs, so he’s still worth holding on to for righty-heavy matchups (like CHI & TEX).
@Wilsonian:
Andrus looks like he is gonna steal 40-50 bases, so if hes on waivers I’d snatch him up.
is it wise to drop Bengie Molina to free up a space for Freese? I know Molina is hitting well right now, but it looks like Freese will offer me more Runs/HR’s/RBI’s and right now and beyond I need a bat.
I have:
V-Mart
C. Pena
Cano
McGehee, Figgins
M. Holliday
J. Heyward
T. Hunter
J. Cantu in Util
B. Molina
J. Damon
I’d like Freese, and as I said need a good bat so is Molina the one to drop?
@Mojo the Helper Monkey: Phillips’ side.
@B.J.: It’s such a shallow league that you’re stuck playing the hot hands, without dropping guys that could haunt you. I’d see if you can trade two of your guys, say Reyes and Votto for Hanley, then start playing the hot hand in the UTIL spot.
@Commish Cauda: Jones side, but it’s close.
@ViagraFalls: Don’t carry two catchers.
@zorob: No, I wouldn’t.
@Commish Cauda: Medlen
@Wilsonian: I’d take the Krispie side.
EDIT: Word.
@Elijah: that’s what I was thinking. He is behind Bartlett in RBIs, but that’s about it. It’s an 8-team league, which is why he’s still out there. Would you, or anyone, drop either Bartlett, Konerko, MMD, or Span for Andrus?
@Wilsonian: Pick up Andrus by all means but I would only drop Bartlett in a very shallow league. You should be able to get value for him in trade. His stats don’t look that bad this year with his unsustainable RBI total.
why in the hell does clint hurdle keep batting ian stewart 7th or 8th in the lineup? shouldn’t he be like 5th or 6th at least.
@Brian: I’m definitely snagging him, but I’m not sure who to drop for him. I just picked up Span this morning, so I guess I could drop him for Andrus and try to deal Bartlett in the meantime before Nellie comes off the DL.
@Grey:
Yeah waiting for Hudson to start pitching better or get rocked, hopefully more of the former. I chickened out taking on Price with that pick, been kicking myself. AL East or not that was the pick there.
@Wilsonian:
I do like Bartlett in general but Andrus I think gets the edge in that hes gonna steal about 20 more bases, maybe a few less Runs/RBI’s. I’d take the steals.
day old numbers/? I know cj gave up at least one tater last night
@Critter Nagurski:
Which CJ? Wilson didnt pitch last night.
@corey: To frustrate me.
@Critter Nagurski: He didn’t pitch last night.
Hi Grey — Is Gavin Floyd a possible inclusion on the good xFIP list next week? In a 20-team league, is it worth trading Wigginton to get Floyd?
Gotta make room for Medlen. Drop Blanks, Maybin or LaPorta?
@Elijah: that being said, would you hang on to Bartlett if you could drop, say, a Buchholz (I’m stacked on pitching, Doc, Ubaldo, JJ, Jered, AJ, Shields, Verlander and Colby), or a Span, Konerko, MMD?
@Baron Von Vulturewins: I agree completely. I suppose it will always be at the evaluator’s discretion as to how much of that “might see” has fallen away at this point in the season… which is most likely why our opinion in this matter differs.
I wouldn’t give Haren the “Solid Contributor” stamp when his track record shows him to be a half-season pitcher. On the flip-side, with Tex you’re getting a guy whose track record shows he’s through the worst of it, and now is the time to take him on.
I’d also hesitate to call Reyes anything other than a gigantic question mark until we see how his thyroid condition plays over a few months. Among the many sports outlet articles, I also read the Wikipedia entry on his condition (link) before considering whether to chance him on my roster, and it lists possible signs/symptoms as hand tremors, anxiety, increased heart rate, intolerance to heat, muscle aches, depression, fatigue and much more. He might be one of the people that can keep their levels in check, he might not be. But professional athletes need to be in peak physical condition to produce, and any one of those signs/symptoms could put the kibosh on that production. So I also wouldn’t call him a “solid contributor” until he’s proven that he can be one (again).
As for Kershaw… yeah, his value has surely taken a hit. But he’s throwing over a K/IP and steadily reducing his walks. Take away that last outing (I realize that’s a huge “take away”) and he’s got a pretty respectable 3.07 ERA.
Anyway, this is all just in the name of constructive conversation. Obviously neither of us is “correct”, but it’s fun to toss educated opinions back and forth. “Red Stripe… Hooray Opinions!”
@corey:
Hurdle seems to have been schooled at the Joe Torre academy for lineup cards, it makes no sense all around. The CarGo at leadoff experiment was odd, then hes 5th (OK idea), then 3rd (Better idea), Helton complained or something, its back to 5th…Helton’s not doing jack, why leave him at the 3 spot just because hes hit there forever? Anyways its not just Stewart. And who knows what’ll happen when Hawpe is healthy.
@Wilsonian:
Who’s your other 2b/ss’s on the roster?
@Elijah: and now I have a Bartlett/Buchholz for CarGo deal in the works. So it might all be null and void anyway.
@Wilsonian:
That sounds like a good plan.
@Grey, Hey Grey. I was wondering how you’d rank the following young arms for potential impacts this season. Jeremy Hellickson, Derek Holland, Daniel Hudson, Chris Tillman. Thanks
Anyone trust Latos or Norris tomorrow?
@Awesomus Maximus: True. This is an interesting trade because there are so many X factors. Does Kershaw get it together? Does Reyes stay healthy? Is CarGo breaking out? Is Bartlett underrated? Not to mention various position-scarcity issues. All these reasons, though, argue against a pure preseason-projection arithmetic.
Sometimes it comes down to an owner’s personality. Do you like to gamble on upside (Kershaw) or take the proven performer (Haren — and even with his infamous splits, his full year is All-Star calibre)?
As I am fond of saying, it is a make-believe game between make-believe teams, emphasis on “game.”
@Baron Von Vulturewins: I agree with that assessment. I just love those Ks, though.
@Grey: What was the name of that amazing MC who did the rap about his celebrity conquests? It was on youtube… I’m blanking on his name.
16-team, H2H-POINTS League, (W=10, L=-5, QS=1, K=1, ER=-1, INN=1, BB=-0.3, HA=-0.1)
We start five SPs. My staff:
Lincecum
Nolasco
Zito
Colby Lewis
Lilly
Latos
Chacin
Medlen
I can trade Zimmerman for Haren. But with this staff, do I really need to? (Zito, Lewis and Lilly all concern me)
After some line-up juggling, Zimmerman would be replaced by Maybin, Blanks or LaPorta…or the free agent flavor of the week.
I traded Cano for McCann and Zito after week 2, so I’m gun shy about doing another solid bat for an arm trade.
@Awesomus Maximus:
In all fairness to Haren’s ‘bad’ 2nd halfs, he’s still usually around a 4.00 ERA with solid WHIP and K’s and should get wins with Arizona’s offense, which translates into a guy you still are gonna want to start every week.
@peter: Dirt McNasty
@Matt: Derek Holland, Tillman, Daniel Hudson….
@Commish Cauda: Lose LaPorta
@Steve: Latos at home. Eh on Norris.
@Commish Cauda: No, you don’t need him.
@peter: Sorry, just Dirt Nasty… Song is Droppin’ Names. NSFW on Youtube for people reading over our shoulder.
EDIT: Ugh
@ Grey: Which side, assuming no true needs?
PacMan, Verlander or Billy Butler, Jaime Garcia?
@Grey: Yup. Thanks! And that’s DIRT NASTY for @you reading over our shoulder.
@Grey:
Quick xFIP question: while its great to have a ‘pure’ #, when I take this data back into the real game situations, some teams do have easier ballparks/better defense/better bullpens. So it would follow that in some cases, the discrepencies between xFIP and ERA are at least partially to be expected and not just an anomaly?
just picked up Wade Davis off waivers for Ian Stewart…I already have Brandon Phillips at 2B and David Wright at 3B. Was this a decent move? Also, someone offered me Ethier and Garza for King Felix and Cargo…should I do it?
@Elijah: not offering too much in Bartlett/Buchholz for CarGo? The guy I’m trying to deal with has Alexei at SS and he can’t access Yahoo at work, but I text him the offer and he said he liked it pretty quick, so it makes me wonder if I offered too much.
@Grey: Yeah, they’re in Houston – against each other. No thanks.
Garland (@ Houston on Saturday) only in Petco too, right?
Grey thanks for the great blog.
@ Grey or anyone else:
Which side would you take here? or could you suggest a better trade to upgrade my 1B with my super deep OF. We start 3OF & 1 UTIL in Yahoo H2H.
A) Teixeira/Lilly
B) Grady Sizemore/Liriano/B.Butler
My 1B/OF: Sizemore/Granderson/Cruz/Dunn/Butler/Quentin/Bruce
His 1B/OF of Teixeira/Miggy/Choo/C.Lee/McCutchen/Heyward
Grey … would you make the Wigginton for Gavin Floyd trade mentioned earlier? At first glance it seems fair, but Floyd was in Rudy’s 20 risky pitchers post in the pre-season.
Stephen Drew or Ben Zobrist? This year? For the future?
holy crap, that’s me mixing up cj wilson and colby lewis… sorry!
@ Scotty M:
Can you replace Liriano with a different pitcher? If so, I’d do the deal for sure. If the other guy demands Liriano maybe demand Miggy instead of Teixeira.
I do like the idea of going after Tex while his value is low and dealing Liriano while his value is so high. I’d probably do the trade regardless, but it would be much nicer if you could give up a pitcher of less talent or get back Cabrera instead.
@Wilsonian:
If you need CarGo its good for you. I just wonder why the other guy doesnt pick up Andrus?
Grey and everyone:
Sell high on Ethier?
I have a lot of offers with him involved, but what kind of end of season numbers do you see at this point.
@Elijah: CarGo would be a solid get for me. I don’t really need the pitching, but with this shallow league, I can do the deal and pick up Cecil off the FA line. He can’t pick up Andrus, he’s on my team now. I went ahead and dropped Span for Andrus when he said that offer looked good.
@Elijah: and like I said, he can’t access Yahoo at work, so I have the one-up on him there. Apparently the State of Illinois has decided that it’s a good idea to save money by not allowing their employees to mess with their fantasy teams. Luckily for me, I don’t work for the State and can completely waste my days with fantasy baseball.
Which side would you take: Gregg/Robot Jones for Figgins/McLouth.
Thanks Mark. I go Zobrist on yours. Both today and future. Drew is Alex Gordon at SS, sorry Grey.
Mark I also have SP of: Greinke, Lester, Molasco, Slowey, Billlingsley, Buchholz, Leake & Bedard(DL spot)
@Gary, I don’t sell high on Ethier. I believe he is legit .290/95/35/105
@corey: @Elijah: hmm…clint hurdle sure looks a lot like jim tracy these days. either way CarGo has the tools to be an rbi machine, definitely seems like a mistake to not let him get comfortable with a consistent spot in the order. helton makes some sense in the 2 spot but he’s too damn slow i guess.
anyway, what do you guys think of trading Zimmerman for Tex? the guy needs a 3b and i have reynolds to cover if i trade zimm. seems like my 3rd rounder for his 1st is a steal but Tex has been frustrating and i have never liked him from a fan perspective. Thanks!
@Elijah: If you want to properly evaluate your pitchers, you need to know what their skill set is. xFIP is very useful because it focuses on the pitcher’s ability to control the aspects of the game that he actually influences.
For the math majors out there, here’s the formula for xFIP: ((FB*.11)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP.
I’ve seen a lot of statheads pushing tRA over xFIP as an ERA predictor, but they are both useful.
@sean: I also advocate taking a look at your pitchers’ strand rates, strikeout rates, HR/FB rates, and BABIP for deviation from league norms.
better overall 6×6 #s for this year: Alex Gonzalez or Kelly Johnson?
what do you think, grey? I think Gonzalez will come back down to Earth… but Johnson might be this yr’s Hill.
thanks everyone. I have both, trying to trade one and Crawford for Braun
@tHe ShiT: Verlander’s.
@Elijah: Some discrepancy, but not 1.50 to 2 points.
@Fletch: No point to that trade. Not crazy about that move.
@Steve: Yeah, eh.
@Scotty M: No problem. I’ll take B.
@Enrique: What trade?
@Mark: Zobrist
@Gary: No idea how great the offers are, but no reason to think he’s going to suck.
@Art Vandelay: Figgy’s
@and1mcgee: I’d want Johnson.
Granted Soto is no Kemp, but Lou’s taking a page out of Torre’s Book of Archaic Coaching Strategies with keeping Soto as low in the order as he is.
I acknowledge they had different motives, but it’s absurd to have the league’s #1 OBP hitting 7th/8th on an NL team (or any team for that matter). Nady’s sub-.600 OPS is naturally hitting clean-up. F’in Lou.
But catchers are supposed to hit 7th or 8th, right? I swear he just looks at positions when making line-ups.
@Grey: I asked earlier about whether you thought it’d be worth trading away Wigginton for Gavin Floyd, but I think you missed the question. Do you think it’s a good deal?
Don’t know if this has been posted, but Fangraphs has a nice little article on MMD and how his start this year isn’t a fluke. Makes me feel good to own him in my main league!!
Hey Grey, I love you the site. Keep up the good work!
Anyway, kind of an unrelated post, but would you trade J.Weaver for G.Sizemore straight up? Btw, I have Weaver.
Thanks!
Bryan
@Baron Von Vulturewins: @Awesomus Maximus: thanks guys for the debate on the deal i posted. I’m personally still debating whether to offer it. Its a 10×10 league, H2H, and i’d be getting the TEX side. You’re both right, lots of “WHAT IF’s”.
IDK maybe i just need to give my team another week or two. My league is very deep and competitive so even losing 2 of 4 weeks right now i’m only 5 pts back…. in my league we play H2H but the win is basically meaningless, thats just for moral purposes, its more about the points you score each week. You can win 9-6 or you can win 18-2. The 18-2 thrashing is much better week. ONLY Scoring 2 tho, can Efff you hard…..
and my bad i haven’t even really checked bartletts stats, it was all me just thinking about the guys i’ve been offered, wow he’s not doing that well…..
@grey Do you think Holliday is too much to give up for Kinsler. I’m thinking so but I need runs and steals. Of course Kinsler may not really be able to provide that this year. I’m fine on HR’s and RBI’s so I’m tempted but don’t feel good about it.
@NukeLaDouche: that is a definite NO GO on that….. kinsler has already been on the DL this year, enuff said.
wait… not enuff, he’ll be back on it at some point before seasons end…. defly not worth matt holliday.
@Grey:
Right.
@Grey: OK – I’m down to Gorz @ Cincy or Chacin @ Dodgers.
Leaning towards Gorz. Thoughts?
@Dad: Yeah, think you’re right.
@Enrique: Sure
@Eddy: What, you don’t trust me?
@Bryan: Thanks… Yeah, I could see that trade.
@Tony: No, he’s not.
@NukeLaDouche: No, it’s fine.
@Steve: I’d start both. Gorz first is fine though.
@Grey On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the most, how much would you prefer to have Cliff Lee rather than Ricky Nolasco? 12 team H2H dynasty league (points based, with wins +10 & losses -5). Thinking of offering my Nolasco + a position upgrade for his Lee and replacement player. Thanks!
@Bill Lumbergh: *small voice* What an overly complex way of asking who do you like better!!!
@Grey: Sorry – last one (should have done all this at the same time). Gorz gone – what do you think of Guthrie in Minny v Baker?
@Bill Lumbergh: Eh, I’d stick with Nolasco.
@Steve: Prefer Chacin over Guthrie.
@Grey: Thanks!
In a 6×5 (+OPS), please pick a side: Lincecum or J. Upton?
At a 5th OF spot, would you rather have Hunter Pence or Travis Snider going forward? Other option is a kick in the groin.
@ Dad
He’ll move him up eventually. Soto was consistently hitting around 6th 2 years ago, but with his horrid year last year Lou lost confidence with him. I think you could make a case for Soto hitting 4th until Ramirez gets his stroke back.
@ BeanyBill
Pence for sure. He’ll come around.
@Mojo the Helper Monkey: Lincecum seems like a no-brainer there for me. He is a top-5 asset in literally every category, but the same isn’t true for Upton on the offensive side. Of course, it depends on what your other options are, but in a vacuum for me it’s Lincecum and it’s not even close.
I ran this list and came up with some you didn’t mention that seemed like the might fall in your range.
Adam Wainwright -1.55
Francisco Liriano -1.57
David Price -1.62
Matt Garza -1.84
Brad Penny -1.87
Zack Greinke -1.93
Andy Pettitte -1.98
A.J. Burnett -2.01
John Danks -2.2
Ubaldo Jimenez -2.27
Barry Zito -2.56
Did you omit these guys because they’re “generally” more proven?
@Mojo the Helper Monkey: Lincecum
@BeanyBill: Groin kick, Pence…
@Gerry: Do you do FIP or xFIP? Though it’s quite likely we have different guys. For instance, if someone has a 2-something ERA and is supposed to regress to around 3.50, then I didn’t mention them. Taking a 3.50 isn’t bad. And I just mentioned Zito in the last post.
@Gerry: That worries me about Zito, cause I was starting to count on him as one of my top 3 starters. Should I be more worried about him, or with his curveball back to “capital-nasty” status and with a pretty decent defense behind him in a pitcher’s park, should I stay calm?
In helping to fill out the rest of Grey’s Team Aptronym…
Holliday — sheesh pal, let me know when you’re back to you job
Kyle Blanks – hey grey how do you like him long term – do you still see 30 homeruns from him in a season one day or the current Adrian Beltre
when it comes to power
Leake/Freese/Unnamed
for
Kershaw/D. Lee?
@uncdrew: Ha
@mrbaseball: Blanks has more pure power, but Beltre’s a better all around player.
I am trying to buy low, sell high here… I would be giving side A
@Phightins#1: As tempting as unnamed is, I’ll go for the Kershaw side.
@mrbaseball: Blanks has more pure power – Can I see 30 homeruns from him one day in this century
Reyes’ stats are burning my eyes on an otherwise decent team. (MY team, not the Mets.) 12 team 5×5 roto, I’m feeling impatient and could use some Runs/SB/AVG– all of which HoRey is pooping on. I feel like benching him for a couple weeks and picking someone off the wire. Thoughts? Desmond, Aviles, OCab, … *cough*…
@Kazmere: I’d just play him, but if you have flexibility try Desmond.
@Grey:
I exported the stats from fangraphs.
I figured there was a method to your “madness”.
Start Hughes @ Boston tomorrow?
What about Greinke @ Texas?
@Gerry: Gotcha
@The Dude: No and Yes.
@Grey: I have an open slot after putting Grandy on the DL, so it works temporarily.
Unrelated, do you see McGehee as a permanent solution at 2B? 10 team 5×5 roto. He’s my only 2B option right now, but wondering if I should trade one of my OF guys for a 2B upgrade. Do you think is/was just a hot start? He’s starting to slow down.
@Kazmere: It’s a hot start, but he should be good for 17-20 homers, which is fine from 2nd base.
what do you think of this trade:
Team A:
Reyes, Pedroia, Garza
Team B:
Hanley, Kendrick, Braden
Ok, maybe Nolasco is just a 2nd half pitcher.
I was really expecting him to dominate the Giants at home.
@pat: A
@Donnie Baseball: He’s not exactly getting killed.
@Grey:
Yeah I know, but against the Giants I was expecting a little more.
How about S. Olsen, where is this coming from?
For what it’s worth, I checked Fangraphs. And Nolasco FB is 1.1 mph slower than last year.
So maybe it takes him awhile to get going or Rudy had something to putting him on the “injury watch” list.
What do you think of this trade?
I get: Heyward, Vazquez, Jaime Garcia
Give up: Justin Upton
Gordon Beckham looks completely lost at the plate. I picked him ahead of Stewart. Sigh.
I have Nolasco in a HRs league (don’t ask why that’s a category). He’s already given up SEVEN this year. Dude is killing me even without being that bad otherwise.
There are not many pitchers left in FA for me, certainly not quality. But considering how awful Clayton Kershaw has been, should I listen to the talk and either try to trade or drop him? Is Lewis from the Rangers worth going after in place of him? And should I worry about Pettitte being injured and out for a while, replace him?
My Pitching Staff is:
Halladay
David Price
Andy Pettitte
J. Sanchez
J. De La Rosa (DL)
Kershaw
Valverde
Marmol
What moves should I, should I not make?
@ViagraFalls: Don’t do anything. Way too early.
@Donnie Baseball: Yeah, could be re: Nolasco. Hopefully not. re: Olsen – He’s been getting unlucky, and seems to turn a corner a bit. Still don’t think he’s more than a #4 fantasy starter.
@Deanjello: I’d want Upton.
@ViagraFalls: Your staff looks solid. Don’t drop anyone yet.
@ViagraFalls: It looks like your batting might be weak though seeing how good taht pitching is. So if it is, trade pitching for hitting but not for other pitching.
Grey,
Just want to let you know that I, alas, have traded Votto. (stop crying, it’ll be okay). You told me at least twice to hold on to him, but I just accepted a Berkman/Haren for Votto deal. I just have a strong feeling that sometime this year Votto is going to miss time for something (injury, depression, lighting fart on fire incident). What’d ya think of the deal? Thanks for all the great advice!
@Pat: It hurts me soul! That trade is fine for you.
Not that this is relevant at all, but what are your feelings on Dan Uggla? Be honest.
Travis Snider is above the Mendoza line!
@the robbie: Why would I lie about Dan Uggla? He has power and hits for a low average.
@Donnie Baseball: You have to give a pitcher time to stretch out his arm and get used to the weather before you talk about MPH. Is 1 MPH really making him that much more hittable? If we’re talking 90 instead of 95 then I’d take notice, but otherwise don’t worry about it…
@Pat: All things considered it’s a good deal for you if Fat Elvis can produce. Not sure what the other owner was thinking. I mean, Votto is an upgrade over Berkman, but not a Dan Haren’s worth of an upgrade.
@sean:
Thanks for the re-assurance.
I’m just worried cause I went all in on Nolasco this year. His incredible spring got me hooked. So, so far he has been a mild disapointment.
And I also checked out S. Olsen and his is up over 1 mph. Still not as fast as his one good season, but up from the last 2 years. So maybe that shoulder surgery did him some good. And this start his somewhat sustainable.
In re: to comment #1 bout trading a starter for KJ, would you trade Correia and Capps for KJ? Seems a bit steep but maybe worth the risk if KJ is this years Hill. I’m currently playing J-Lo at second and I hate it.
Grey – SP’s are hoarded in my 12 team H2H. I sit with Hamels, Kershaw, Nolasco, Anderson, Price, CJ, Marcum, LeBlanc, Tillman and Chapman. Drop Tillman/Chapman for Cahill/Medlen? Thanks!
@sean: @Donnie Baseball: I second what sean said. Is 1 MPH even relevant one way or the other? What’s the expectation — that the pitcher should be pitching at the exact same speed as last year? Given how imprecise these measurements are, anything under a 4-5 MPH drop seems within margin of error to me….
Also: Still way too early to bail on pitchers. Nolasco can easily tear off six great starts in a row and suddenly be in the middle of Cy Young talk. We’re only one month in.
P.S. KJ back on the Tater-Train tonight. Woo-woo! All aboard!
Napoli gets his first homer the day after I pick him up!
In honor of that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGZrKrgNXSI
Forgetting about need, do I drop EYJR for Snider?
@Grey: What do you predict for Mike Leake this year? He doesn’t walk many guys, good movement on his pitches, and has good composure on the bump. I’m feeling a young Greg Maddux vibe from him… maybe more Slow Twin Fizz right now, but I’m high (cue the bong rip noise) on him this year. I know he’s a rookie, but I don’t think he’ll roofie my team too much. Am I delusional???
@Qummiy – Snider has a BABIP of .206 on the season, and his ISO sits at .218. He’s going to hit, and when he does, he’s going to get a lot of xBH. I love this guy. Grab him.
Thought this might be appropriate for us guys…………….
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2010-05-05/game-for-all-america
RIP Ernie.
@eddie: done did it and ty kindly
Check that he is walking quite a few guys, but I hope that won’t be a crutch all year.
Also, drop Big Papi for Smoak or is Papi gonna turn it on from June on like last year?
got this offer, thoughts:
my: uballs and krispie
for his: crawford and hamels
do i take this, def right?
@Tony: If my math is correct (which it may not be), Kinsler is hitting .346 fresh off an injury and admittedly not playing at 100%… plus he finally swiped a bag tonight. Looking forward to seeing him once he gets back to 100%.
@quimmy: Meh… Ubaldo should be able to fetch you more than that, IMHO.
@quimmy:
Wow, it’s tough to give up Ubaldo right now, but that’s tough to turn down.
if i did this trade my 5 man rotation would be:
gallardo, hamels, marcum, garcia, braden/correria
with anderson on the DL
think i can get by with that?
Adam laRoche or Smoak?
@Schlitzy:
laRoche I think
@schlitzy: im a big laroche believer this year, he is having a pretty good start to the season, which is unusual for him considering he is a well known 2nd half hitter. i wouldnt be surprised to see him go something like: 275-28/95
Alfredo Simon SAGNOF Ho!
Picked up Rowand to fill out my lineup today and he did nicely. Any chance he’s a better play going forward than R. Davis or Willingham ?
Hamels for Bay?
Napoli is available and seemingly heating up. Saw a headline that Posada could be DL’d. Hate carrying 2 catchers but, have a hole in the lineup right now.
Jaso is out there but Napoli seems like the 20 HR guy thats on the wire that plays C and was forced into starting again. Thoughts?
@BKK: seems fair. what would ur of and rotation look like after the trade?
@Eddie: And Beckham is now below it with another 0/4 night. It’s officially become painful to own him.
@Tom Emanski: I have been having some hitting problems this week as guys have been facing some good pitching, but what would you suggest I do? Last week they couldn’t miss and led my league in runs, RBI’s and HR’s. This week…not so much.
V-Mart: Disappointing start but is starting to show signs of life, especially today. And we know he has the ability.
Pena: I know he doesn’t hit for a great average, but he drives in runs, scores them himself and has the power for HR’s in the 20′s-30′s.
Cano: Yeah, he could be in line for a triple crown this year. He has gone cold the last few days, but aside from that he has been on fire so far.
Figgins/McGehee/Freese: The applet crashed several times during my auction draft and automatically chose a few players for me, robbing me from being able to bid on known quantities that went to other guys. Figgins is one of those. He steals bases and plays small ball, mostly, and not a lot of support in that lineup. McGehee started off great and has gone cold, but he looks like he is for real. And Freese…I know I am piled up on 2B/3B, but most everyone worth anything is not available, and I just took Freese for his bat to get my BA up. He looks promising.
Tulo: Starting off slowly, as he usually does, but he always picks it up for top level quality.
T.Hunter: Another guy that was chosen for me by the auction crashing. He has shown some signs of life, but he is a weakness right now. I may try and trade him down the line if I can.
M. Holliday: Another disappointing start, but we all know what he can do. I am hoping he can turn it on soon enough, and I am not going to trade him.
J. Heyward: Luckily enough, I was able to grab him after the auction in FA and he has not disappointed one bit. He’s a rookie, he slumped for a few days before getting steady again (and still will have his moments), but he has star written all over him. I know he is going to be big this year. Even today, pinch hitting on one AB while injured and he singles, driving in 2 RBI. He is being consistent and still driving in RBI’s and HR’s. Not even thinking of moving him.
J. Cantu: I picked up Cantu during the first week for the Utility spot and up until the last few days, he has been hot and consistent. An RBI a game, at least, for about the first 20+ games. For who was available to me, Cantu has been beyond my expectations.
J. Damon: Bench/rotation player as of late because of BA. Another guy that was chosen for me, but after a rough start got his BA up and was driving in runs. Not my ideal choice for a bench player, especially now that he injured himself, but again not many options for replacing him.
I’m watching the FA market for people that might get dropped unwisely and am open to listening to trade offers, but nothing has come up. The other teams in my league are hitting and pitching well, so they are not really making trades. If they came at me, I know Cano and Halladay would be prime targets and I won’t give either up…I Halladay has a no-trade clause anyway. And Cano is not going anywhere.
So, what is your advice? Aside from Figgins/Hunter and the unknowns of Freese/McGehee, can you spot any glaring weaknesses? I appreciate any suggestions you may have. Thanks.
@Joe B: Leake walked a lot in his first 2 starts, but he’s settled down in his last 3 (no more than 2 walks per start). His BB/9 and K/9 are actually very similar to Maddux’s in his first full year in the majors (4.3 vs. 4.3, and 5.8 vs. 5.9 respectively). Maddux went on to lead the league in lowest BB/9 in nine different years of his career. Too early to tell if Leake will find that control, but his past few starts have been definite improvements. He’s not very pitch efficient at the moment though–averaging over 100 pitches and under 7 innings a start.
Beckham better get Catcher Eligibility soon
@BKK: do it
@Bodymore: The question with Napoli is whether over-manager Mike Scioscia will play him when Mathis is back. Somehow this guy has maxed out at 114 games in a season. In 08 he hit 20 HR in 78 games!
@Awesomus Maximus: It became painful owning him about half way through April. He’s totally lost. He even committed two errors tonight.
is delmon Young droppable? RCL league, i’m sick of his play no play crap, 0-4 for a week then 4-5 once every two weeks. Already cut bait on Juan Rivera tonight and grabbed schierholtz…..
ps. please get healthy JROLL AND ELLS I need sb’s!
@ViagraFalls: Man, even your hitting is awesome. What is this, an 8 team league? You should just play it out. There’s nothing wrong with your team.
@quimmy: BKK would STILL have cc, slowey, oswalt, kuroda, hudson, and erv santana, plus marmol, jenks, lindstrom, lidge, and corpas…. 32 inning MIN….
i’m offering bay to him, lol
i have extra offense he has extra SP/P
@Tom Emanski: I still had hope half way through April… after that I found a way to bench him so it wouldn’t hurt… now he’s just burning up a roster spot. I didn’t know about the errors… sounds like the kid needs a few sessions with a good sports shrink.
@Tony: Hmmmm, close call, def a fair offer.
@Tony: LOL, you make me laugh, I searched the site to see if you asked so since you didn’t, I did. I think the deal is fair, but I really would like a better 2B than Lopez. By adding Bay I have an over stocked OF and Hawpe will likely have to sit on the BN once he returns form the DL. Although, he is frequently on the DL.
@Tony: funny when people post RCL trades on here, especially if u think u r getting over on someone and u see them post on here and get put on to your shannanigans…..
@Tom Emanski: Yeah, it’s an 8 team league. Thanks for the compliment on my roster, but the competition I am up against is crazy. One guy’s roster that I am up against this week is this:
Posada
Adrian Gonzalez
Utley
Ryan Zimmerman
Hanley Ramirez
Carlos Lee
Ryan Braun
Cuddyer
Wigginton
Chris Young
Carlos Quentin
His Pitching:
Beckett
Hamels
Nolasco
Brian Wilson
Jon Rauch
Jared Weaver
Liriano
That is just one friend I am up against this week, and the other six guys are stacked almost as well. So it is a mother of a league to try and hold your own in. Last week, when all of my guys were hitting well (and I was leading in HR’s, RBI’s, R’s) and pitching well I could hold my own. But when the roster slows down like mine this week until today, you get eaten alive.
@Tony: Oh, don’t forget about Garcia you (what was it you called me, oh ya) you lurker! HaHaHa!
@quimmy: That’s the funny part, this isn’t an RCL trade. Tony invited me to play in his league this year, against his better judgement. I think! Actually makes it kind of fun, we know each others secrets.
@BKK: noice!
Ding, Dong, Doink – what was that?
Soria killing me tonight. What is that about in Texas?
Now a wild pitch – even he is shaking his head wondering where he is.
Hamilton and Vlad…Today turned out pretty well.
@Sos: Go with Smoak.
@AnotherFalstaff: Hold
@Schlitzy: LaRoche
@BKK: Hamels
two questions for you tonight:
1) how possible is it that age has finally caught up to a-rod
2) give me the best interim replacement option for beckham @ 2B from these players: callaspo, hudson, castillo, kennedy, omar infante, barmes.
thank you
Who do u guys prefer goin forward, Snider or Kubel? Plus Schierholtz is lookin gd with those Xtra base hits…
Is Slowey for Bay fair?
cueto or cecil?
@charlie batch: I’d say it’s about as possible as a guy like Lloyd ending up with a girl like Mary in Dumb and Dumber.
@quimmy: i wouldnt do it.
@Donnie Baseball:I have Nolasco on two of my three $ teams. He’s not going to win a ton of games (12-14) pitching for the fish, but he’s going to post an ERA under 4 and a respectable WHIP plus get close to 200 Ks. Not gonna win the CY, but he’ll be a very valuable guy when it’s all said and done.
@BKK: Unless a 1:1 is Pujols for Valbuena, it’s hard for it to be UNFAIR
@ Grey:
I finally parted ways with Kubel. I picked up Snider. With my luck Kubel will finally realize the season has started 2moro. But I really like Snider, and even though he has struck out a lot, he hasn’t done so that much in the past few games. Extra base hits are replacing those Ks so Im thinking hes coming around already. Ur thoughts, and should I keep my eye on Kubel or 4get bout him?
Vlad, Carlos Lee, Andruw Jones or Konerko for the rest of the year as my utility player? Please rank them in order.
@charlie batch: 1) Nah 2) Hudson
@tHe ShiT: Snider, forget Kubel.
@BKK: It’s fair.
@ABell: Cecil
@Fletch: Vlad
@Grey or anyone else
13 team roto and no extra bench spots.
Some guy wants Cliff Lee from me for Choo. I’m dead last in ERA and 2nd to last in whip, but avg is also hurting. Should I hold tight or do the trade.
C Geovany Soto
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Ian Stewart
SS Stephen Drew
OF Justin Upton
OF Jayson Werth
OF Carlos Quentin
Util Hunter Pence
Util
SP Ricky Nolasco
SP Wade Davis
SP Wandy Rodríguez
SP Ervin Santana
SP Cliff Lee
RP Trevor Hoffman
RP Bobby Jenks
P Octavio Dotel
P Tom Gorzelanny
P Manuel Corpas
BN Javier Vázquez
@Anthony: Eh… I’d hold tight.
@ Anthony:
Hold tight, u can get a better hitter than Choo 4 Lee. As it is ur staff is a little weak…
@Grey: My Kemp and Bay for his Pujols? Only prob is I already have Howard and Miggy
@foridamach1: Why are u making the trade then if u dont need a 1b? Tempting if u need Pujols though..
Because having him is hard to pass up…
@floridamach1: Can you replace Kemp w/ Howard? And swap Bay out if he won’t take that?
@ThePensive: Swap Bay out for another OF, that is
I countered with Howard and Sizemore for Pujols and Ian Stewart. I am awaiting the results
Uehara looked good tonight. One-two-three inning on 12 pitches with a K. I’ve picked him up in two leagues. Thoughts?
Barry Zito and Austin Jackson for Adam Lind
Good consolidation trade, or should I look for something different?
@sean: Grab him if you’re vulturing.
@BeanyBill: I’d take Lind.
Great article. It’s really amazing to think about how pitchers BABIP fluctuates, no matter how good the guy is. Just goes to show that all a pitcher can hope to do is throw strikes (preferably low ones), miss bats and keep the ball in the park.
@Grey: What is the league average for pitchers LOB% anyway?
Drop Jose Lopez for Smoak?
@3FingersBrown:I think around 70%
Seriously…what’s going on with Beckham?….seriously!
@DrEasy: I would
Start Buehrle tomorrow vs the BJs?
@Tom Reale: Thanks. I felt I read 77% but not sure.
Yeah Beckham’s looked like crap when I’ve watched him. I really thought that getting him for $18 was going to be a great deal.
@3FingersBrown: Hey, doode, long time, no comment. Just over 70%
@DrEasy: Sure
@NukeLaDouche: Eh
@BigFatHippo: Nice piece, thanks for sharing.
He counters with Pujols, Stewart and Verlander for Howard, Beckham, Bay and Sizemore….I think yes?
OPS League and that leaves me with Kemp, McCutch, Granderson, Adam Jones and Swisher in the OF
@Grey: Thanks money grip.
Haven’t been online much between a birthday bender that started at Yankee Stadium on Saturday and my barhop/jobhunt this past week. Grip work’s been slow but knock on wood, I’ll be able to pour you a Daiquiri next time you’re in NYC
Some guy made Werth available and is looking for RP help. I was thinking offering Marmol + Ibanez for Werth, but even though I think it’s a fair offer on paper, Werth just doesn’t impress me all that much. I mean, last year he basically hit the same number of HRs as Ibanez, and this year he’s not even running. Even though Werth has had a better start than Ibanez, I could see them being tomahto-tomato by the end of the year (same HRs, Ibanez with fewer steals but maybe a better AVG). Thoughts?
@DrEasy: I might use that info against him to offer a lesser closer than Marmol, but I definitely believe that Werth > Ibanez at the end of the year.
@ThePensive: Hmmm, interesting thought! I guess I could always start by offering him Ibanez + a brain freeze (I’m a brain freeze hoarder!) and see what happens.
Ethier’s my boy.
Grey, xFIP was brought to you by the same failed MBAs who gave the world the toxic mortgage derivative. The rules of the game provide for help or hurt from those pesky fielders (call it the very construct of the game). Or if you prefer, xFIP is more or less the same as trying to determine the effectiveness of an infantry unit apart from its associated artillery unit. It’s stupid in the extreme. So ignore the construct of the game at your peril.
14 team league. Currently in first. Been offered pence for my aaaardsma. Pence would take the place of mclouth. Would leave me with capps as my only full time closer (mike gonzalez on the dl) with joba, and corpas (holds count too). Not sure this is a great deal for me.
@Oregon Nut Cups: I hope that you’re right about Masterson. I needed a spot start because I’m dead in ERA and WHIP so I needed K’s, so I looked up Masterson’s xFIP. His xFIP is way lower than his ERA, but like the other poster commented his problem is lefties. His HR rate is 4x higher for lefties than righties. Also his BABIP against him is crazy high (.420), so I think that you can expect his .324 AVG to go down along with his ERA. I don’t think that he’s gonna hold up to his xFIP of .310 either, but a .400 looks about right, and if he faces less lefties a .380 is reasonable. I’ll hold on to him if he has a 4.00 ERA because of his K’s!