Okay, take off your aluminum foil cap you use to get better TV reception and put on your thinking cap because we’re going into The Land of Sabermetrics with your host, me. Today we’re going to look at FIP. Stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s FIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Jair Jurrjens – -2.00 difference. Meesa tinks Jar-Jar’s going to get in big trouble.
Doug Davis – -1.99. No surprise here (I hope). He’s not nearly as good as he’s been and he’s only sitting on a 3.25 ERA. Here comes the youch!
Jered Weaver – -1.86. This one surprised me. I figured he was pitching as good as his numbers indicated, but it turns out his BABIP is low and his men left on base is high. Maybe him and big bro might have more to talk about over the All-Star Break than their mullets.
Matt Cain – -1.83. Upsetting for me because I have him on a lot of teams, but not completely surprising. His walks will cut eyes out of a sheet and haunt him.
Kevin Millwood – -1.71. You shouldn’t own him anyway outside of AL-Only leagues.
Chris Volstad – -1.70. I knew he wasn’t this good! Looks like the hurricane season might come early this year (<–Not sure if that makes sense, but seemed to fit.)
Joe Saunders – -1.58. You didn’t really think he was a sub-3 ERA pitcher, did you?
Brett Myers – -1.46. Not that surprising until you realize his ERA is already a 4.81. That’s right, his FIP is 6.28. Don’t wait around for the bounce back.
Johan Santana – -1.27. But his FIP is still only 2.05. You’d take a 2.05 ERA on the year and love it.
Tim Wakefield – -1.21. Looks like he may get greeted with a *pinkie to mouth* knuckle sandwich.
Zach Duke – -1.10. Change is gonna come, nephew.