It’s been over a month since we took a look at some pitchers who are pitching over their heads. Last time, we saw Cueto, Porcello, Millwood, Saunders, Lilly, Cahill and Gallardo were due for a correction. Since then, they’ve had Liquid Paper dumped all over their stats. Also, on that list were Matt Cain, Zach Duke and John Lannan. 6 of 10 pitchers pitched poorly since the last time I told you they would, Gallardo’s been marginally worse and Zach Duke’s been marginally the same. That’s pretty bad odds against the pitchers on this list. A few are still on here as they’re still pitching over their head. For a refresher course on what the eff I’m even talking about with FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), take Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Matt Cain – -1.63 difference. Cain’s regression is defying gravity.
J.A. Happ – -1.23. Then throw in his home park and the Phils will have to start limiting his innings. Or, at least, they should. But after their handling of Hamels last year, they may not.
Edwin Jackson – -1.19. Ouch! That was Edwin Jackson landing on top of Aaron Hill in the giant pile of Guys You Already Got So Much Value From That If You Want More You’re Just Being Greedy.
Kevin Millwood – -1.19. He still has a ways to go before we see the Millwood we know and don’t own in fantasy baseball.
John Lannan – -1.13. The terrible K/9 and the team behind him makes him questionable anyway. I recently owned him for his start vs. the Padres. Got a 8 inning, 1 earned run game from him. Then I dropped him.
Jarrod Washburn – -1.12. It’s only because his ERA is currently a 2.64. You don’t really think he’s a sub-3 ERA pitcher, right? Rhetorical!
Wandy Rodriguez – -1.01. No!!! Anyone but Wandy, please. Here, take my Catfish Hunter 1978 RC Cola Player Soda Can. Just leave Wandy alone!
Trevor Cahill – -.97. Since he currently has over a 5 ERA, he shouldn’t be on your team anyway.
Joba Chamberlain – -.91. If his mom, Anne Ramsey, catches him on this list, there will be trouble.