A little insider info, I wrote all of the pitcher profiles for one fantasy baseball preview magazine. (And here I didn’t even know they made magazines anymore!) Felix Doubront didn’t make the top 100 for that magazine. Did I shortchange them and their readers so I would give more to you Razzball readers? Um, well, I wouldn’t say I shortchanged anyone. I just, you know, had selective fantasy ‘pertness for those outside of Razzball’s universe. Last year, the Po’ Sawx looked like they were a dozen eggs short of an ostrich egg. Ellsbury, Ortiz, Pedroia were hit with injuries and that wasn’t even the big problem. Their pitching looked like one of those fake vomit plastic discs where the factory in China accidentally put real vomit into one. “That’ll teach those stupid Americans to scare people with uncontrollable indigestion problems.” That’s a fake vomit factory worker in China. His name is Wei-Spray. He hates his job. He used to work at a fake doody factory, but felt like it was below him. He didn’t catch the irony of that. For starters with at least 160 innings, Doubront had the 4th best K-rate. Right behind, Scherzer, Darvish and Gio. That’s elite company. There’s not a drafter out there that doesn’t know to look at those three. Doubront’s BB-rate wasn’t great, in fact, it wasn’t good. But of those four he didn’t have the worst walk rate, that honor goes to Darvish. If you asked a hundred fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term), who will have a better season, Darvish or Doubront? I guarantee you that a majority, if not all of them will say Darvish. I’m not sure it’s that obvious. So, what can we expect of Felix Doubront for 2013 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
His Home/Away splits weren’t pretty. A 5.33 ERA vs. 4.37 in and out of Fenway. The 5.37 ERA in Boston was aided (hindered?) by a .332 home BABIP. His xFIP at home was 3.64. Of course, Fenway has a higher BABIP on average than most parks. One way there’s the Pesky Pole, the other way there’s a giant wall that was built to block the odor of the Cask ‘n Flagon (unsubstantiated rumor). Doubront could get lucky and have a sub-.300 BABIP, but I doubt it (or Doubront it, if you like symmetry). His other glaring red flag is his innings jump from 2011 to 2012. He could go down with an arm injury in 2013. No way of knowing that, so we’ll ignore it because of where you’re gonna be able to draft him. His K-rate should work fine with his walk rate. If he makes any gains — not just some gains, but any gains — on his walk rate and strikeout rate, he’s going to be a huge sleeper. Think a 3.50 ERA and 200 Ks-type sleeper. More than likely, he’s going to struggle at home and put up an ERA around four. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 12-12/3.92/1.33/185. Definitely worth a late-round flyer. (BTW, when I Googled if it was spelled fake doodie or fake doody, one of the search results was a Yahoo Answer, “Is it okay to put fake doody in the work refrigerator?”)