Comments on: Fantasy Roundtable – Least Important Stat Categories

By: cws05nuts

cws05nuts — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:14:35 +0000

Hey Rudy -

Is this the BTR Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Podcast?

Or, a podcast at all?

By: Daily Linkage - 5/20/2009 | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Daily Linkage - 5/20/2009 | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:00:25 +0000

[...] If you haven’t already, check out this week’s “Fantasy Roundtable,” hosted by Razzball.com. [...]

By: brad

brad — Wed, 20 May 2009 05:15:26 +0000

@Jareth Cutestory: agree totally about a difference between not helping and not hurting. i guess taking pains to draft players who won't hurt your average is giving a certain importance to the category.

By: ScoutAbout

ScoutAbout — Tue, 19 May 2009 23:08:51 +0000

Great roundtable! I particularly enjoyed the discussion about looking at a pitcher’s K/9 and K/BB ratios. I’m still pretty new to fantasy baseball so I have a very novice type question. What are elite ratios, solid ratios and sub-par ratios in these categories. Put another way, what ratios should I be looking for that indicate an elite pitcher vs. a solid pitcher vs. don’t draft/leave ‘em on the waiver wire?

By: Jareth Cutestory

Jareth Cutestory — Tue, 19 May 2009 23:06:52 +0000

Rudy,

I find that average is much harder to fix than just about any category. It is truly a battleship, not a speed boat, and cannot be easily turned on a dime. In contrast a single thief like Crawford can change a team’s fortunes on the base paths. Average also correlates strongly with runs scored and rbi. Runs scored is also a bitch to fix.

A single closer can also dramatically impact standings. In addition a 10 team mixed league will cap out at 300 hr or so, and clearly a single player that hits 40-50 taters will dramatically influence an owner’s ability to reach 300 and get that 10. I guess what I am saying is that a single player can be acquired and go a long way to fixing certain categories.

The cumulative totals of at bats, runs, and rbi are so high though that an owner has to be mindful of average at every turn in building a squad. Last but not least, it is one thing for a player not to contribute in a category, it is quite another for them to actually HURT you with low average.

Batting average is like the lime that keeps you from puking after a tequila shot.

By: brad

brad — Tue, 19 May 2009 23:04:41 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: @Jareth Cutestory: I agree with you Rudy, partially because once the season has started it is much easier to find a guy who will help you in BA (over replacement) than it is to find a guy who will help you in RBI, R or HR.

By: Adam

Adam — Tue, 19 May 2009 22:08:20 +0000

I usually look at stuff like K/BB and K/9 and let the ratios take care of themselves, don’t even both trying to predict wins (which is the main reason I didn’t talk myself out of taking Greinke in the middle rounds of my draft) and try to snag a few mid-low tier closers for saves, and stream the rest of the season. Rather than hold mediocre/bad starters and multiple offensive backups like the rest of the league, I prefer to have multiple middle relievers with great ratios and K numbers to help in those areas. Conveniently, they also generally end up being the guys to fill in when a closer goes down.
As for offense, I don’t concern myself too much with average, and usually just base R/RBI on lineup position.

By: wreckless

wreckless — Tue, 19 May 2009 21:52:29 +0000

I have to agree with Williams. We see the volatility every year in pitchers’ ERA and, to a lesser extent, WHIP. It’s easy to dismiss wins and saves as “luck”, but I look at it more as a team metric. Teams that win a lot of games on offense tend to get wins for their starting pitchers. Teams that win a lot of games, especially small ball teams that win by manufacturing runs, tend to produce more saves.

Batters depend just as much on other batters for their Runs and RBIs as pitchers depend on their batters for run support. The only difference is that the sample size for starting pitchers is much smaller than for everyday players, so there is more volatility among SPs. However, if one is looking to win the league, is volatility a bad thing? Chien-Ming Wang had back-to-back 19 win seasons that he probably didn’t deserve, just for being in the right place at the right time. But everyone who drafted him knew that he was in the right place, and if he showed up at the right time as well he would pay off big.

ERA and Wins are both volatile, if you don’t look at the deeper picture. The difference is that “the deeper picture” for ERA will include WHIP and Ks, so its values are tied to other categories that affect the pitcher’s value. Wins are less tied to these factors, and more tied to categories that don’t hinge on the pitcher himself. This, along with the volatility of the category, made Wang an incredible value pick for his first and to a lesser extent his second 19-win season despite his mediocre ratios.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 19 May 2009 21:51:35 +0000

@Jareth Cutestory: I think that's the case for all stats, no? If you fall behind in SB, you'll have to sacrifice power. If you fall behind in power, you'll likely give up in SB and AVG. Of all these, I put the least stock in AVG and focus more on the other four. @Stephen: Thanks...I think.

By: Stephen

Stephen — Tue, 19 May 2009 21:00:54 +0000

Rudy- I marvel in your brilliance, and melt in your knowledge