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There’s nothing more random than September baseball.  It’s a time where you throw season stats out the window and ride the hot bat or hot hand.  The mystery of a new guy can throw the league off for a few games and you can enjoy that all the way to a championship…or a few FantasyDraft bones.  Then there’s the recency of it all.  It’s always good to look at the 7 day performance of a given hitting team when trying to pick a pitcher during this time of year.  All year, it’s been a known thing: don’t start a pitcher vs the Dodgers.  Now?  Dodgers have been in a free fall and have the worst wRC+ over the last thirty days.  All this to say, this ain’t your mom’s time of year…hrm, not what I meant to say…namely cuz I don’t know what it means so instead I’ll just say over the last seven days, the Orioles have been one of the worst hitting teams in the league with a 53 wRC+ and a monstrous 28.2% K rate during that span heading into their matchup with Estrada last night (Marco was sitting at 3 K thru 2 as of this typing).  Why does all this matter?  Well, Joe Biagini already got to enjoy the mess that is Baltimore.  At Camden Yards on September 1st, Biagini went 7, struck out 10 so there’s a good chance this slide continues for these birds.  Keep in mind, this Biagini dream could quickly turn into a nightmare so stay away in cash, children.  Good?  Good.  With that out of the way, lets get on to this.  Here’s my Barbara Eden taeks for this Tuesday FantasyDraft slate (walks away humming the I Dream of Jeannie theme song)…

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Sonny Gray, SP: $18,600 – In cash, it’s Corey Kluber or bust as your 1 and it isn’t really close for me as Clayton Kershaw comes back from the DL slowly.  Jose Quintana?  Well, back to that 7 day thing: Mets are actually 3rd best wRC+ in that span and Quintana has not played well enough for me to start him in this scenario.  All of that and now we’re gonna talk Gray, m’kay?  Rays have been a high K% team all year and Gray has enjoyed the fruits of it as he already has 16 K in 12.1 IP against Tampa in 2017.  Gray in cash or GPP, don’t matter to me!

Johnny Cueto, SP: $14,400 – Want another tourney arm?  You don’t?  Well I don’t care, you get one anyway.  Dodgers are faltering and Cueto could reap the benefits.

Nolan Arenado, IF: $10,000 – Heading into last night’s game, Arenado had a 1.286 OPS over his last seven and before you ‘but Coors’ me, four of his last seven have been at Dodger Stadium and both HRs in that span came in LA.  Arenado looks like he’s picking up steam for a major HR streak.  Hop on with me, won’t you?

Elvis Andrus, IF: $8,000 – He’s had a hot bat and the Rangers as a whole have been raking.  Either way, let’s enjoy the 20 HR Elvis we never knew we wanted but now that he’s here, we knew we deserved.  Feel free to throw in Delino DeShields Jr, Nomar Mazara, and Robinson Chirinos if you’re feeling a Rangers stack.

Yandy Diaz, IF: $6,600 – Did you know Yandy rhymes with candy?  Ok, you ‘knew’ that but you didn’t think about it until I mentioned it to you.  Ok, in an M. Night Shamalamadingdong twist, I don’t actually know how it’s pronounced and I’m straight assuming it rhymes based on spelling…not sure where I’m going with any of this except to say an Indians stack is of course in play.  That said, if you wanna avoid the usual suspects like Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez, the Yandy man can.

Wil Myers, IF/OF: $6,400 – I had a mini-tweet storm about the value of Myers in 2018 when you hit the draft table.  It’s nothing amazing BUT…..here.  With that, I’m simply pointing out I’ve noticed the uptick in production and at this price against a pitcher I see as still mediocre, Myers looks like a great one off from the Padres lineup.

J.D. Martinez, OF: $10,800 – You don’t HAVE to follow people in cash with bats, but with 7 HRs last week and he’s in Arizona, it’s hard to argue against putting him in either.  Just Dongs is out here Just Dongin, peeps!

Khris Davis, OF: $8,100 – Khrush has been on a roll of late and gets a lefty and a green monster tonight.  Playing him tonight is a recipe for success which should lead to chef kissing fingers dot gif goodness.

Randal Grichuk, OF: $7,200 – Much like Dhalsim, Grichuk is good in stretches and during which he’s straight Yoga Fire!  If Dexter Fowler is still out, Grichuk getting you a cheap HR seems in order…just don’t expect much else.

Brandon Nimmo, OF: $6,900 – Finding Nimmo isn’t hard of late, wanna know why?  It’s because of that 204 wRC+ over his last seven.  The Mets have no reason to sit him as he’s their only good bat that isn’t hurt, you have no reason to not play him at this price.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

The air is clear, the sun is shining, and the birds are singing everywhere.  Now throw in a musical number and you’d have a Disney cartoon.  Instead, you’ll just have to make due with it being a clean baseball slate for weather.

Doing Lines In Vegas

Cleveland…so hot right now…Cleveland…the Windians are a -500 favorite with the Klubot on the mound tonight.  That’s what they call ‘a large number’.  Outside of that, you have two lines I’ve already suggested you go against the grain on with the Cubs and Dodgers sitting at -260 apiece.  If you’re looking for lots of runs, you don’t need to look much further than Arlington as the TEXvsSEA tilt has the high on the day at 11.5, followed by a smattering of 9.5s around the league.  The interesting ‘low’ number today is AZvsCOL at 9.  Yes, not extremely low but given the environment, you’d expect higher.  Don’t be surprised if this quietly turns into a pitcher’s duel.  Playoff baseball, my dudes and dudettes.  If you’re looking for low run totals, SFvsLAD has got you with 6.5.  Meanwhile, there’s crazy 8s across the board in CLEvsDET, LAAvsHOU, and TBvsNYY to round things out.

   

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