Jacobs’ Ladder Worth Climbing
June 01, 2008
Category: June's Daily Notes
Mike Jacobs hit two home runs yesterday. Baseball Tonight’s Chris Singleton said Jacobs could hit “a lot” of home runs if he stayed healthy. You know what? Singleton has “a lot” of insight. Funny thing happened on the way to June, Mike Jacobs has thirteen home runs. More than Fielder, Tex, Morneau, Pena and Miguel Cabrera. Now I’m not saying Jacobs will be more valuable than these guys, but Jacobs is way more affordable in a trade. He’s a lot like Carlos Pena in ‘07. Both showed power, but lacked consistency and health. Poor average — check. Clouds of doubt about what they’ll be worth at the end of the year — check, check. Both playing in front of near capacity crowds (for a WNBA game) — check. Pena’s last year owners can also attest that if you own him, you’re better off holding onto him, cause you’ll never get value for him. But if you don’t own him, he’ll cost a lot less than the big boys. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:
Homer Bailey - About to be called up. Remember when he was their most hyped prospect? Since then, Bruce and Votto have had great starts, they acquire Volquez, and Cueto has a spot in the rotation. Don’t expect much from Bailey. He doesn’t really deserve the call-up as he hasn’t corrected his biggest flaw - wildness. He walked 29 in 66 IP at Triple-A. For Bailey’s sake, we hope the expectations are set closer to Fogg than Volquez.
Mark Prior - Shoulder surgery for Prior causing him to miss the rest of the season. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.
Tim Hudson - I was watching the game when he left with his leg injury. It didn’t look that bad, but then again I get these rashes on my leg and I’ve diagnosed myself as having The African Gong-Gong Disease and prescribed myself a wet towelie and two Little Orphan Orange Otter Pops, so I may not be the best person to ask. Leg problems will probably shelve him for a week. Best case scenario, he misses two starts and returns fine. Worst case, he returns too soon and really messes things up by favoring his injured leg. This is some Trapper John, M.D. suspense!
Brain Bannister - One run in 7+ IP. He looks like a good guy to not pick up in mixed leagues.
Troy Glaus - Hit a HR yesterday. LaRussa says Glaus is going to start hitting more home runs now that the weather is heating up. What you need to ask yourself, is this sober LaRussa talking or drunk LaRussa? I think it’s sober LaRussa.
Ian Snell - If you have him still in your lineup, I’m assuming there was a death in the family and you haven’t check your team in a while. Or you’re just dopey. Either way, my condolences.
Nate McLouth - Ended May with a .279 average. That’s a better representation than April’s .330. Maybe Karabell’s intern misread his refrigerator magnets.
Chase Utley - 20th HR/6th steal. I picked him for NL MVP, so I obviously believe. He’s also one of the few guys that I don’t have on any team, but still can’t root against. Take that schadenfreude (Word of the Day)!
Shawn Hill - Gave up an ill-timed home run to… Who am I kidding? No one cares what Shawn Hill did yesterday.
Chad Tracy - Batting fourth, hitting his second home run three days. CoJack will be out at least a week with a quad strain.
JR Towles - Batting .145 with five hits in all of May.
Bartolo Colon - Now 3-0. I still wouldn’t go near him with a three foot churro. (Only partly because waving a three foot churro near Bartolo would be similar to going to a grizzly bear observatory wearing nothing but bikini briefs made of Marshmallow Fluff…. Talk about a Fluffernutter — oofa!)
Alexei Ramirez/Alexi Casilla - Both can provide some value if you’re weak at MI. Also, if one of them books two dates on the same night, they could pull the old switcheroo and send the other guy out on one of the dates, which is a lot easier than bringing both dates to the same place and then running back and forth switching outfits ala Alex P. Keaton.
Adrian Gonzalez - I’m not really surprised he’s still hitting bombs, but I’d like to see him hit them in July and August.
Carlos Beltran - HRs in 2 straight games to boost his season total to 7. If you invested a top pick in him, you’ve got to be hoping this is the start of one of his streaks.
Johnny Cueto - I said I wouldn’t write about him again until he proved himself. Well, 5 IP of no-hit ball pulled me back in, but he’s still giving up fly balls (10) and not making enough people miss (3). Love the upside, but don’t get too excited. Worth holding onto, but don’t be afraid to bench him if the matchup is bad.
JJ Putz - Another horrendous night. 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Who does he think he is - Carlos Silva?
Ryan Church - Hit a home run after returning from his concussion. Talking about the concussion, Church had this to say, “I really know how Snuka felt after that Piper’s Pit.”
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Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, Alexei Ramirez, Bartolo Colon, Brian Bannister, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Pena, Chad Tracy, Chase Utley, Homer Bailey, Ian Snell, J.J. Putz, Johnny Cueto, JR Towles, Mark Prior, Mike Jacobs, Nate McLouth, Shawn Hill, Tim Hudson, Troy Glaus
June 1st, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Following up on Dioner - no I can’t stash Doumit on my DL b/c Furcal and Holliday are already occupying my 2 spots…
Also - Church or Damon ? I know you like Damon more than the next guy -
June 1st, 2008 at 10:22 pm
drop ben francisco and pick up chad tracy until co jacks is back?
June 1st, 2008 at 10:27 pm
is it time to panick about Ortiz yet? He IS my team.
@Tony B.: In the last seven games, Dioner batted .348. Doumit is headed to the minors for at least two games. I doubt Dioner will be picked up if you drop him, but I also don’t think Doumit is going to help you until next week. You know your league best, do you have to get Doumit right now, or can you wait five days? If you can’t wait, grab him and take a goose egg at catcher for a week. It’s not the worst position to do that at, but it might not be necessary. I’d grab Doumit Wednesday or Thursday if I were you.
Damon has four less home runs than Church and 7 more steals. He will get more runs, less RBIs. He’s also much safer, with no upside. Church has some slight upside. It’s your call.
@Zebo: Yeah, I would for a week to see if Tracy can get and stay hot.
@Zebo: He ahd three home runs in his last 7 games, batting over .300. Those aren’t stats you panic over. His wrist strain might be an issue though. But no word yet on his MRI.
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:30 am
@Grey: Sorry to nag on Bruce, but want to try a different tack. Guy in my league says he is listening to offers for Tex, but wants starting pitching (I am relievers only). Thus, what SP gets Tex? Then maybe I can use Bruce (plus whoever else) to get some SP that can land me Tex.
As always, really appreciating the help, Grey…
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:43 am
And I just turned down Ellsbury for Putz before that god-awful performance. We count losses, too. The best closer in fantasy last year has to bounce back at least enough to be worth owning, right, right?
Anyway the word is that Steve Trachsel doesn’t start on Tuesday. Maybe Radhames Liz has calmed his arm down a bit and deserves a look, or maybe Dave Trembley is just tired of Steve’s worthless old punk ass. Either way, I like not seeing old Steve regardless of the reason.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:25 am
re: KGreene - my FA list top ten as of June 1st based on points (not personal opinion)
Crosby, Peralta, Renta, Betancourt, Scutaro, Barmes, Lopez, Keppinger, Harris.
Others to include due to mentions on Razz
Hairston and Kouzmanoff
Shortstop has me in a pickle!
Part of me wants to play the hot hand until KGreene shows life again. Part of me says he’ll snap out of it, except I just don’t trust the mug shot he has on CBS.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:38 am
I like that you featured Jacobs — my plan is to go out and get him with one of my Junky Closers ™ (probably Torres — though he’s been awesome!) then trade AGonzo for pitching. I love it when a theoretical plan theoretically comes together!
re: Homer Bailey: I need pitching bad, but even I can’t get excited about this guy. Let’s see: Extended audition in ‘07 during which he was terrible: check. Return stint to AAA in ‘08 during which he wasn’t much better: check. Awful attitude: check. Call-up to bandbox stadium for .500 team: check. Wears bad mullet and looks like the no-good nephew who ruins the family’s longstanding and profitable moonshine business through his brash incompetence: check. Please — somebody sell me on this guy!
Fluffernutter = priceless. I may need to change my Razzteam’s name.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:58 am
Pitching the closers in a weekly head to head
So my team is 7-2 as of last night - 3 weeks ago I sat Ryan, he scored 50 and I lost my first game by 20. Yesterday he gave up 2 ER and I lost by 13.
Ahhh - trying to predict those closers
Overall though for the week my starters averaged - 20 points and my closers averaged 22. worst case scenario a closer earns the equivalent of quality start with a loss.
My record since adjusting to 4 starters and three starters is 1 and 1.
This week with Hudson going down my four starters and three closer philosophy is tested as the team I am up against 9 pitch starts (Cain, colon, Halladay, Meche, ESantana, Sheets, Snell) with no closres to my 5 pitch starts (Bedard, Harden, Lincee, and either Kershaw, Shields, or Cueto) with 3 closers - Rauch, Ryan, Papelbon.
Anyone have input for me to chew on as I decide between Kershaw, Cueto, and Shields? I have my answer penciled in but looking for match-up input.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:08 am
I’m not sure if I’m the only one paying attention in my league or not….but….Jorge Campillo is still just sitting on the wire in my 10 team Yahoo league.
I’ve got…
Bedard
Lincecum
Shields
Wainwright
Owings
Kershaw
Would Campillo be worth dropping one of the others for? I’m trying to trade Owings to get help elsewhere but if I can’t, should I make a move for him? He’s been lights out so far.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:10 am
Ooops. Forgot, I’ve got Joba too.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:13 am
How about when Jack Tripper had to pull off three dates at the same time? One in his apartment, one downstairs in Mr. Furley’s place, and one upstairs in Larry’s room.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:23 am
@ Kevin: What? He couldn’t handle a 4th at the Regal Beagle? Lightweight.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:36 am
@Frank: He couldn’t even handle the three. As you may recall he ended up with a bowl of pasta and a bottle of wine dumped over his head.
June 2nd, 2008 at 6:21 am
Great site!
I need to pick a SP for this week out of the following…
Jurrjens, Cueto, Kershaw or Westbrook
My other starters are Harang, Volquez, Marcum, Waino, and Maine.
June 2nd, 2008 at 6:31 am
I think the biggest difference between Pena last year and Jacobs this year is the OBP. Jacobs currently sitting at a robust .298 OBP. Pena finished last year at .410. Even if Jacobs hits 46 dongs this year he wont have close to the value Pena had last year. Pena managed to score 99 runs in ‘07, due to his narsty OBP. Jacobs is on pace for 39 bombs but only 72 runs. (Now I am not saying that 39 big flies isn’t valuable… not at all, just that he loses value compared to Pena based on his fear of not swinging).
Jacobs could be a very useful fantasy player and he is very easily acquired right now. So take the flier, just keep the expectations in check.
I once saw Jay Bruce hit 3 home runs with one swing. He scored 11 runs on the play and was awarded 3 bonus rbi’s due to his sheer awesomeness.
June 2nd, 2008 at 6:53 am
Second requet for guidance this morning - someone dropped Isringhausen - Is he worth a pick-up and stash?
June 2nd, 2008 at 6:54 am
@ JL
I know I could find this out, but would you mind filling me in on who those pitchers are facing (team, opposing pitcher, home or away)? T’would help me in my advice giving abilities or some shit.
June 2nd, 2008 at 7:18 am
So does anyone know what the hell Delmon Young’s problem is? I thought he was supposed to be a stud. Not one HR yet?
Is he a buy low that’s going to explode?
June 2nd, 2008 at 7:23 am
@BSA: No. I had him and dropped him, he’s still sitting there looking sad. Cards don’t seem to be trying too hard to get him back into closing shape. Franklin has been solid in his stead and Perez appears to be waiting for an opportunity of his own. I wouldn’t waste the roster spot on him.
Pick him up in the RazzBall League.
June 2nd, 2008 at 7:27 am
@porkburn - That’s mighty big of you - Pick him up in razzball league to solidify my basement dwelling. I am still licking my wounds from a roto league I dabbled with last year.
I am set at closer but am trying to keep my in free agency because my leaguemates aren’t razzing their teams.
@SaltyBiscuits: Good points Salty on Jacobs. Jay Bruce once got to third on a single and then drove himself in.
All: Sorry can’t reply this morning. The ‘Man’ is making me do work. Grey should be up soon to carry the weight (as usual)
June 2nd, 2008 at 7:36 am
re- post #7 - just woke up and discovered I must have been sleeping when I listed Kouzmanoff. WTF
June 2nd, 2008 at 8:07 am
Just got an offer of McCann for Zambrano?… I know I can do better than this, but my backup is Posada, and you know how I love big sweaty Cubs. My starters are Wainwright, Volquez, Contreras, Litsch and Guthrie.
@Steve: Wainwright, Maine, Billingsley… But I think you’re asking a lot to flip Bruce for a SP then flip the SP for Tex. How can you be sure what the guy who wants Tex values?
@cockyphoenix: Putz must be bothered by an injury.
Watch it, Trash-el carried my Razzball team the other day.
@BSA: I’d go Peralta, Greene, Renteria, Crosby, punt.
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Moving a Junky Closer™ for him would be a great move.
@BSA: I’m not even sure of matchups and it’s Shields.
@Frank Rizzo: I’d let Campillo ride the waivers. Your pitchers are fine for now.
@JL: I’d go Cueto, Kershaw, Jurrjens then Westbrook. In that order. BTW, As Salty Biscuits pointed out above, it does help to give matchups.
@SaltyBiscuits: Well said on Jacobs.
Jay Bruce just served me Kenyan coffee that he got from Greenland. (Bruce moved Kenya to Greenland to balance the two climates.)
@BSA: Depends on how badly you need a closer. I feel like anyone who’s getting saves is worth a roster spot, since Izzy is not getting saves, but the assumption is he will be when he returns, it depends on who you are dropping.
@p0rk burn: When’s the Razzball commenters’ league draft?
June 2nd, 2008 at 8:15 am
Dana Eveland or Edwin Jackson?
Ben Francisco or Ryan Spilbourghs?
@IowaCubs: So do better. I don’t trust Posada at all. He was a major bust candidate coming into the season and now he’s coming back from injury. Why don’t you move him for a second rate closer?
@Freak: Jackson — Spilborghs, but Spilborghs is contingent on X-rays coming back today on wrist.
June 2nd, 2008 at 8:21 am
So, Mike Jacobs, Jason Giambi, or Todd Helton? Trying to rank crappy 1B in my main Yahoo league where I need everything. In the same league, would you start Oliver Perez tonight against crappy San Fran in that huge stadium with the everchanging name?
June 2nd, 2008 at 8:37 am
Hey Grey, what’re your thoughts on Delmon Young? Is he a buy? I know you liked him coming into the year, but how about now? Where’s the power?
@Bob: Jacobs, Giambi, Helton, they’re all close and Helton obviously giving you different things than the other two. I would start him, but he’s risky.
@Frank Rizzo: Sorry, I missed that above. I did like him a lot coming into the year, but he’s a strikeout machine. I’m watching him for signs, but I haven’t seen many to buy right now.
June 2nd, 2008 at 8:47 am
@Frank Rizzo: Where’s the power? Exactly. Young’s always been highly touted, but he’s never hit for big power — not at any level. (He did hit 26 home runs in 2005 btw AA and AAA — but then 11 in ‘06 btw AAA and MLB; then 13 last year — but that was in a mammoth 681 ABs, which is like a season and a half. Given that many at-bats, I could probably hit about 8).
Scouts just assumed the power would come because he’s a strapping lad with good fundamentals — and he is only 22. But so far, the power’s been like the Loch Ness Monster; something people talk a lot about, a few people believe in, but no one’s ever seen.
Power can be streaky, but it’s not likely someone goes two months WITHOUT A HOMER, then suddenly cranks 10 a month. If Young sees 15 homers this year, it’ll be kind of shocking. Let him maturate on someone else’s bench.
June 2nd, 2008 at 8:49 am
Nice lightening round! good morning.
June 2nd, 2008 at 8:57 am
What kind of pitcher should I be going after if I offer Bruce to someone? Hamels too much? Buy low on Harang? Ervin Santana not enough?
@Kevin: I think if you can get Hamels that’s a coup. Harang would be great. And I’d be happy with Ervin.
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:16 am
@Grey: Draft is tentatively scheduled for the evening of June 12th. We still need to hammer out a time so this is subject to change. Once we get the league fully running I’ll publish it and announce the URL.
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Delmon Young is strarting to look like Milton Bradley’s younger brother - the walks.
Kevin I’d trade Bruce for any of those as much as I like him he;s still a rookie and in a month maybe batting .250.
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:27 am
I’m trying to buy low on Vlad Guerrero, maybe including Jon Rauch and Curtis Granderson in the deal. Trade Adam Dunn for Guerrero, and look to include one of the other players? I’m not sure I will settle for Dunn/Vlad straight up, even though that might be the only deal they accept. Maybe I should start with Victorino or Jay Bruce and add pieces to trade for Vlad.
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:35 am
@Kevin: Offer Bruce for Hamels straight up. You never know until you try, right? I’d look for multiplayer deals in this case because I’ve found that there aren’t many people that will do a Bruce for Hamels deal, but will do something like a Bruce and one or more other players for Hamels and one or more other players.
Odds on your trades happening:
Bruce for Hamels- 10:1
Bruce for Harang- 3:2 (I like this if you want to do a one-for-one trade)
Bruce for Santana- off (Unless they’re an Angels fan, who is that inbested in Ervin Santana?)
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:44 am
@Grey: I’m not sure what a “bust candidate” is anymore.
I think the Yankees will try to find a way to get Posada’s bat in the lineup as much as possible. I’m in 2nd place in WHIP/ERA/K’s, so I don’t really need Zambrano, but I don’t trust my starters, so it’s a bit of self-consciousness. Or in the case of Zombrano, unconsciousness. (See… it’s a zombie joke. Do I need to explain ALL of my jokes to you people!?!)
I need pretty much all the offensive categories except for BA.
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:49 am
@IowaCubs: Why would you ask would I trade for a pitcher then? Hmmm… Why don’t I go after another OF or something? (Why am I so introspective today?)
@IowaCubs: Well to answer your question, IowaCubs, you should go for another bat in your lineup.
@IowaCubs: Have you tried actually working your real job today instead of farting around with your fantasy team?
@IowaCubs: Loved the Zombie joke, btw, but it would have been funnier if you added a fart joke in there somehow.
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
@Frank Rizzo: Delmon Young is a lot like Matt Kemp and Robinson Cano. The low OBP and strikeouts (Cano isn’t as bad as the other two with strikeouts) guarantee they are going to be streaky as hell.
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:59 am
@IowaCubs: Posada has rotator cuff tendinitis and has seen the best doctors. Rest and recovery and he should be back around June 10 to DH. He might need offseason surgery, and that could show something with the labrum. I got it off lohud blog, but don’t know how to post linds here.
I think the real story is who do the Yankees trade for to play catcher? Maybe Jeff Clement? He’s blocked by Johjima.
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:00 am
Peralta/Greene contemplations-
Historically, has Green been this streaky or could he be hurt?
I know Peralta is streaky and looking at the two of them side by side it appears they both project to be the same.
Right now the baseball appears to be the size of a testicle of someone on steroids for Greene and Peralta might be seeing a beachball coming at him.
Any news on the west coast as to whether or not he sat this weekend for a planned rest or a chance to hit the cage and clear his head.
It looks like Peralta has been hitting the dingers as well as making minimum contact to get on base whereas Greene looks lost at the plate.
Am I on track here and if so is Peralta now ready to trend backwards while Greene just has to rebound.
Yeah Yeah I know no one knows that question, just thinking aloud here.
SS seems to be my waterloo at this point because I have been able to make some good choices in all other positions.
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:11 am
Torres or Rauch as third closer? I don’t have to worry (famous last words) about either one disappearing from FA because my league doesn’t believe in being here.
Stiffest competition A is clearly a Cubs fan - can’t figure out why he picked up Marmol
Stiffest competition B likes to add/drop based number of starts - -how’d kuroda and Beurhle work out?
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:15 am
What should I do with Co Jack & Ortiz both out ? I need a 1st baseman! Drop Dan Wheeler for Jacobs ?
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:18 am
@Nick - grab Votto “pre-quoting Grey here” if I may be so bold.
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:19 am
@Endless Summer: I saw Jeff Clement go 5-5 and hit 3 home runs in a high school game in Des Moines. Awesome. I still believe in Posada, but I like Clement for his Iowaness the same reason I like Tom Arnold for his. (That’s right, I said it.) … I’d like to see that trade.
@BSA: I have the same impatience with Greene, but I’m sticking with him, because I can’t trust anyone who spells their name Jhonny. I’m having the same problems with SS ever since I agreed to that Guthrie for Rollins trade. Stupid! Stupid!
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:21 am
re: Bruce average falling
Justin Upton started the season this year batting like .400, but of course he also started the season striking out at least once in his first 10 or so games, so we all knew it was over his head. Jay Bruce only has one strikeout to six walks since coming up. Watching him bat, I have seen him composed and judicious at the plate; he takes pitches out of the zone with confidence. I can’t bring myself to trade him just yet, not until I see some signs of rookiedom getting to him. It’s not like his value will plummet if he starts striking out, not with the buffer he currently has on that BA. Hell, I got Wainwright for Upton about 2/3 of the way through the tailspin, just before that beautiful 0-for-20 road trip.
I thought I’d have a look at Gordon’s and Braun’s ‘07 for some frame of reference for this Bruce business. Gordon came out of the gates striking out every game for the first dozen he played in, and he didn’t see a walk for over a fortnight after he got the call. For the rest of the year, Alex struck out about every four times at bat, and he actually did finish at about .250.
Braun, on the other hand, hit a bunch of home runs and finished the season over .320. The funny thing is that he came up to the bigs and struck out as much as Gordon did–every 4 AB–and hardly walked at all, not earning a free pass until his second week in the majors. Braun finished ‘07 with 30 walks and Gordon had 40.
Sample size is the first thing I check when people throw stats at me, but Jay Bruce took 4 walks his first 2 games, and is now up to 6 walks and only 1 strikeout. He needs to face some better pitchers, but he’s homered off Hudson/Acosta and doubled off Glavine. There’s plenty of time to jump off the train, but there’s for damn sure no rush.
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:24 am
@IowaCubs: Oops! I got that confused with that Woodie Guthrie for Henry Rollins album trade I made… Still a dumb trade. I can’t get those workers rights and “Plight of the Hooverville” songs out of my head.
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:24 am
@IowaCubs - my closet skeleton (probably why I am doomed at short)was pre-season dropping Furcal because furcal limped through the end of 2007. Then again I was a “who’s playing hot this week” player. Damn hindsight!
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:31 am
I think I could wait it out till Thursday on Doumit, I don’t know what these other owners in my league are thinking, if they haven’t picked him up by now, I think it’s a good sign.
Concering Damon and Church, I’m about middle of the pack in steals and I lead in RBI’s and HR’s. How many SB’s does Damon end up with season, 20-25? My only real stolen base guys are Furcal, Pence, Rios, and Votto (maybe even Holliday gets to 15?) The thing is, my outfield after a recent trade looks like Holliday, Hamilton, Pence, Rios, and Quentin. Damon and Church would merely be fill-ins on off days for any of those 5 or they would be playing in one of my UTL slots nightly. Do I hold onto Damon based on his steals potential for the rest of the season or go to Church and “pray” he continues to rack up RBI’s and runs?
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:37 am
@Endless Summer:
Reports here in NY are saying that Posada should be back by the end of the week. I am sure that he will be dh’ing a lot but they also have him catching and making throws to 2nd in extended spring training. It sounds like he will be catching at least a few times a week.
I just acquired Posada for Cain in one of my leagues. I didn’t want to pay the asking price of Billingsley from the owner who had V-Mart and I was sick of the revolving door of crap I’ve had all year at Catcher (Johjima, Suzuki, Barrett)
On another note, I just saw online that Bo Diddley died. Did Grey also mention him in one of his recent posts?
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:38 am
Is B.J. Ryan for Johnny Damon an even trade?
@KarlJ: re: Diddley — ha!
@IowaCubs: Yup.
@Tony B.: I’d go with Church for a fill-in days guy.
@cockyphoenix: Great comment.
June 2nd, 2008 at 11:01 am
I have to admit to picking up Bailey in a couple of my deeper leagues, but I am not convinced that he will add much to my roster. When in a 16 team league with 30 active roster spots, even a middling SP looks good, though.
@johnwhorfin: I agree that he’s a pickup in deep leagues. I grabbed him in a 15 team league, I’m not going to start him against the Phillies in the Bank.
June 2nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
two roster spots available for two closers, what do you think? I love reading here and then going cherry picking in my “two start happy” add/drop league.
Ryan, Capps, Rauch, and Torres
June 2nd, 2008 at 11:41 am
@BSA: Just trade for a better SS. Seriously. Go out and get Orlando Cabrera. He’ll come cheap. You’ll drive yourself crazy with the likes of Khalil Greene who, despite his peacenik name, offers no peace of mind.
@cockyphoenix: Great comment. And I agree. Obviously it’s easy to fall for someone hitting over .500, but if you watch his at-bats, he’s using the whole field, lacing singles the other way, and doing other encouraging things that good hitters do. Plus, I’m encouraged by the fact that every time Bruce’s bat hits the ball, lightning crashes.
@BSA: Rauch is the best of this bunch by far. He’s been very good this year. I haven’t followed Capps, but he’s reliable. Torres has been good of late but his future is murky. If you pick up Ryan, I’d try to trade him — though what kind of league has BJ Ryan in the FA pool?
June 2nd, 2008 at 11:43 am
@Grey: I’ve got a few potential deals lined up. Which scenario do you like best?
a) Trade Torres for Youk, flip Youk for Joba, trade AGonzo for Lackey. Lose: Torres, Gonzo; gain: Joba, Lackey.
b) Same as above except keep AGonzo.
c) Trade AGonzo, get Lackey; wait on Zim’s health; trade Zim for Joba; keep Torres.
June 2nd, 2008 at 11:47 am
The league I chose randomly from CBS, but don’t overly excited as their are a number of decent players in FA ryan is on my team and I can’t really move him because the majority of people in my league don’t trade or don’t want Ryan. I have been reading Torres name a lot and know Ryan is shaky, Rauch has been great and Capps name comes up quite a bit.
Merely fishing to see if I can improve this crapshoot of a position?
As to SS, what would you consider the top five SS that teams may be willing to move? I cannot get Rollins, already tried in a package. Yet I did get Utley from that team.
June 2nd, 2008 at 11:48 am
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Could that post be more confusing?
Basically, if I add Joba to Hamels, Cain, Garza, Laffey, Cabrera, do you still think I need another topline starter, a la Lackey.
I’m good in pitching stats now but a lot of that is the Volquez Effect.
June 2nd, 2008 at 11:48 am
@BSA: I disagree with the Baron. I’d go with Torres because I don’t think Gagne is coming back for his job and even if he does it should only last a week or two. While Ryan has at times shown signs of struggling, I’d go with him over Capps or Rauch. After all, a closer isn’t worth Diddley (RIP) if his team is never in a save situation. The Blue Jays seem to be in a little bit of a better position to provide save opportunities.
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
@BSA: Furcal might come at a discount because he’s been on the DL. Michael Young’s stats are kind of pedestrian, so you might be able to pry him loose. And Cabrera you can probably get cheap — he’s been bad and he’s undervalued in general, IMO. He could easily rebound and have two great months for the Sox. He won’t hit HRs, but he can help in AVG, runs and SBs.
Otherwise, the top SS are all overvalued, I think: Jeter, Renteria, Tejada, etc.
The most risky/genius move would be to get Tulowitki for pennies on the dollar, then stash him for the second half.
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:01 pm
I just flipped sizemore and rios for prince bay and ibanez. now my outfield is a little clogged with victorino quentin and bruce also being there. i want to upgrade my SS or SP. any combination of bay ibanez and guillen net me hanley? or what kind of SP should i look for grey?
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Wow, you really wanna flip A-Gonzo for Lackey. You should just do it if you’re that concerned with your starters. I think you’re fine for now. I would flip Torres for Joba, if I could. Then try and flip Joba for another piece.
@Ross: “any combination of bay ibanez and guillen net me hanley?” Not likely, but you can try. Maybe Quentin and Bruce for Hanley? Maybe Quentin, Guillen and Bruce for Hanley? Maybe Quentin for a top starter? I’m not saying Quentin’s going to fall on his ass, but remember you just picked him off waivers.
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Orlando Cabrera isn’t worth the pixels needed to display the trade offer. I wouldn’t look to him, there *has* to be a better schmohawk out there. Then again, maybe I’m just bitter because he Effed me in the Eh for the first half of the season. He’s been a free agent in one of my leagues for close to a month now.
But you should draft him in the RazzBall league, he’s due for a break-out.
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
PB - You’re killin’ me with all these razzball league recs. Where do I send the check for all this great advice? Grey, why can’t you make recs like porkburns? Weren’t you just called out yesterday for not patting Chipper on the back and now porkburn gives inside scoops on razzball - Should Razzball be changed porkballs?
@BSA:@p0rk burn: I had Pork Buns for lunch. Quite tasty. What is not tasty, however, Cabrera. I’d prefer a random schmohawk with some upside than him. He’s the definition of a middling infielder. Literally. BTW, there were some additions to the glossary today. Thanks to Rudy.
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:43 pm
kouzmanoff or lowell?
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
@BVV - the team with Tulo is trade friendly and wanted to move Granderson for Vlad two weeks ago. My outfield (including bench) is currently - Vlad, Pence, Quentin, Bruce, Wells, Victorino
He has all starters with Snellyalater rolling out this week (in other words no closers)
As stated earlier I have Rauch, Ryan, and Paps closing with Torres and Capps available in FA
What would you package? I also have rookie pitchers - Kershaw and Cueto, that I consider expendable - less likely to let Cueto go right now.
Amazing how a decent outing can bring us off the cliff.
@agar: Lowell is safer with better RBI and run potential. Kouz has more upside. Depends how risky you want to be and what you have surrounding them. I’d probably opt for Lowell.
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Grey, I’m feeling pretty good. Someone offered me Derek Jeter for Max Scherzer, which I took. Then I offered Jeter for Papelbon. So, I started off with Max Scherzer and turned that into Jonathan Papelbon. That’s the way it’s supposed to work. Although I made about 25 offers that were either insulted or sneered at. The ironic thing is that the guy thinks he took me. But he’s got Stephen Drew at SS, so it is an upgrade for him, and I have Carlos Guillen who is a wash with respect to Jeter, notwithstanding the ‘roids. Anyway, that’s my report for the day. I guess I should do a little real work now!!
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Grey,
I just dropped kouzmanoff for slowey, and now have Giambi at 1b and Miggy at 3rd, with Lowell on waivers, ive got to make a decision, do I drop Giambi for Lowell, Broxton for Lowell, or sadly Scherzer for Lowell? I just don’t trust Giambi for the long haul and feel I could slot Miggy at 1b and put lowell at 3b for the year.
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:58 pm
@Bob: Scherzer to Paps, eh? Mad props.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:04 pm
@p0rk burn: I agree. Ryan was awesome in May, netting 10 saves and W. But Rauch is no slouch. In May he had 7 saves, a W, and a Loss (in a non-save situation). And he’s yet to allow an earned run in a save situation. And he’s 6′11″, which means you can easily slide him into the 5-spot and have him post up on his defender on Mondays and Thursdays.
@Bob: Yes, well played indeed.
@agar: Scherzer or Broxton. I’d opt for Broxton since Scherzer just needs an injury from Johnson or Davis to get back into the rotation. Broxton will be a middle reliever the whole year unless something happens to Saito, which doesn’t seem likely.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:05 pm
@p0rk burn: 1) Let’s play Guess the Closer. Can you match the stats to the closer over the past month:
Closer A: 12 IP; 8 SV; 11 K; 2.25 ERA; 1.17 WHIP
Closer B: 12.2 IP; 5 SV; 14 K; 2.13 ERA; 1.18 WHIP
Closer C: 12.1 IP; 6 SV; 13 K; 2.19 ERA; 0.97 WHIP
Closer D: 13.1 IP; 1 W; 6 SV; 12 K; 0.68 ERA; 0.68 WHIP
Answers below!
2) Now let’s play Guess the Middling Infielder. Which shortstops posted these numbers in 2007:
SS A: .322; 102 R; 12 HR, 73 RBI; 15 SB
SS B: .301; 101 R; 8 HR; 86 RBI; 20 SB
Answers below!
Answers:
1) A = Papelbon, B = Nathan, C = Soria, D = Rauch. The “bad teams get less saves” is a fallacy; it’s bad fantasy wisdom. Bad teams win fewer games, but they also have more close games. Consider: Paps had 37 saves last year. Kevin Gregg had 32 for last-place Florida — and he didn’t become the closer until May 15. The pitchers above are nearly identical. Now ask yourself: Where were Paps and Nathan drafted? And where were Soria and Rauch drafted?
2) A = Derek Jeter. B = Orlando Cabrera. Eight to ten rounds of difference in draft position, at least. Jeter is overrated. O-Cab is underrated. Yes, he was very bad in the first few months this year; droppable even. But if he doesn’t outperform Shlemiel Greene and Jhonny Peralta from here on out, I will eat my sox with a side of lox.
Thus endeth the lesson.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
BVV - What bar are you studying for - the FBB? Ok, in the court of fantasy baseball smack you put up a pretty good defense.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
BVV - What bar are you studying for - the FBB? Ok, in the court of fantasy baseball smack you put up a pretty good defense.
Oh yeah, Dr. Seuss would be proud if he were a razzball fan.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Damn hate a slow connection and when people do that double post crap - mea culpa.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Update, now the Papelbon guy wants to back out of the deal. Says he made a mistake. I’m inclined to let him out of the deal. So it goes.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Anyone notice Jay Bruce’s strange top hand adjustment during his batting stance? He kind of takes his hand off bat for a second, almost like he is fixing his jersey.
Well, it turns out that the mechanism in question is government regulated. It was instituted to prevent Jay Bruce from using full strength during his swing, which would have sent batted baseballs thousdands of miles into the atmosphere causing damage to aircraft, satellite and migrating birds.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Fielder Bay Ibanez for Rios and Sizemore….who wInS?¿
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:28 pm
@BSA: Funny thing is, I don’t ever talk smack in my regular league. It’s too gentile. But this brings out the Razz in me!*
@Grey: Excellent glossary, btw. Yawnstipate is especially choice — with real world applications beyond baseball! Also: Wickmen. Genius.
When I owned Wickman last year (his last year, alas) I christened him FatBob WickPants. I was proud of that.
*This should be a slogan for RazzCola.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
@Chase: I definitely would prefer the Fielder, Bay and Ibanez side. Even if you’re desperate for SB, that’s a lot of potential dingers to give up.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:43 pm
@BVV: If you are considering draft position your argument is not only persuasive, I’d even go so far to say its correct. The context of the original post was “which of these guys should I get now”. Are you saying that if someone offered you your choice of those 4 you would choose Rauch? If yes, glad to have you in the league, buddy. I think Grey or Rudy covered the marginal difference between the tiers of closers rather well in their pre-season material and reached similar conclusions as you. I did like Gregg last year and he was a nice ww pickup, but I’m prone to think his 35 saves in 4 months was the exception. I stand by my proposition that a closer for the Nationals doesn’t have as much value as a closer for a contender. I’m not saying you should draft the latter 8 rounds ahead of the former, but if I’m paying the same price I’m going to discriminate using the team they play for.
Also, those stats are what led me to draft O. Cabrera this season. I don’t think he is going to post similar numbers this year. He might have better numbers than Greene or Peralta at the end of the season but I think the answer to your original question is NOTA. There is probably somebody with better potential than those jerks. Is Crosby around? Even if he gets hurt later in the season you could rock him at SS until that happens and then go pack to Cabrera (if you really want to).
But in our razz league Cabrera is definitely the correct choice.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
@everyone: I was just offered R. Cano for my J. Dye, do I jump on this or do I sit, or what? I need some opinions fast, lest the other owner is the wiser. p.s. This will be to fill my Util spot. As my OF options are Markakis, Hunter and Ellsbury, and my 2B is B. Phillips.
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:59 pm
@p0rk burn: I would def. take Rauch. Though I’m still having a hard time getting my head around a league where these guys are available in the first place.
Ryan: Arm troubles, velocity down.
Torres: Effective currently; erratic history; Gagne looming in shadows.
Capps: Effective; low K #s, which both doesn’t help you now and could mean trouble in the future.
Rauch: Young, throws hard, has been impeccable in role so far.
So yeah, I’d take Rauch. Unless you’re worried about Cordero, but then you might as well be worried about Wickman or Dan Quisenberry. (If Cordero sees a mound this year, I’ll be surprised, unless it’s a mound of fries.) What’s the win differential going to be between the Jays and the Nats? 15 games? 85 wins vs. 70?
That’s not enough to sway me away from the 32 year old guy coming off Tommy John and toward the 29 year old guy who’s been lights out all year and has less mileage on his elbow. He might get five less saves from here on out; his #s across the board — esp. K/9 — will be much better.
None of the choices will be wrong, of course; in a normal league, I’d say take Ryan ’cause he’ll have more trade value (name recognition), but this clearly isn’t a normal league if he’s available in the first place.
I said it before, I’ll say it again: Don’t sleep on Junky Closers.
June 2nd, 2008 at 2:01 pm
@Zebo: Jump on it. Always trade up in talent. You can fill holes later.
@p0rk burn: Bobby Crosby is a fart in a bag. If you’d rather throw your lot in with him than O-Cab, I wish you luck.
June 2nd, 2008 at 2:26 pm
@Baron Von Vulturewins: I just accepted, thanks. I hope Cano gets hot as soon as I get him.
June 2nd, 2008 at 2:30 pm
@BVV: I already did that exact move. After a month of 0fers with an occasional 1/4 thrown in something had to be done. I prefer to think of it as a breath of fresh air rather than a fart bag. Semantics?
June 2nd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Jay Bruce for Chien Ming Wang?
June 2nd, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Man, I swear some people in my league are crazy.
Recent trade going through:
Hanley Ramirez and Alex Rios for Jay Bruce Nick Markakis and Jhonny Peralta
ugh.
Though I suppose I benefited, as I acquired Tex from the same manager giving up H-Ram and Rios, for Quentin and Votto!
Anyway current pitching staff is very prospect heavy:
Volquez, Cueto, Jurrjens, Scherzer, Billingsley, Bailey, Chamberlain, Kershaw, Guthrie, Sheets, Young, and Gallagher(flier?)
Relievers: Nathan and Kuo
Current lineup:
Navarro, Tex, Phillips, Cabrera, Hairston(Tulo DL’d), Dunn, Braun, Berkman, and Morneau.
Question: Do i stand pat with a pretty solid team, I’m currently tied for 1st in H2H or do I start selling high on some prospect pitching for some more established arms? What’s Volquez value for more pitching?
June 2nd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
@p0rk burn: You say tomato, I say fartato.
No doubt you couldn’t continue to suffer with the O-Cab, just as I finally had to stop the pain of Snell. Sometimes life brings a little Crosby — or, in my case, D-Cabrera, the Fart in a Bag(tm) of pitchers — into your life.
@Kevin: It’s fair, but I wouldn’t do it. He’s only marginally better than the next guy off waivers, unless your league’s real deep and you are really hurting for starters.
@Hank: Volquez is probably the most valuable, but I’d start selling on Joba, Kershaw, Bailey and Jurrjens. Your team is way too rookie dependent and this could get you into major problems when your playoffs come around. Not to mention, Sheets is an injury waiting to happen.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:13 pm
@Grey: Guy with Tex wants someone in Halladay/Lackey/Hamels mould so will try and pry one of them loose and flip them for Tex.
Guy with Lackey has already shown interest.
As I don’t use starters, I’d be turning a waiver-wire pickup into Tex - works for me.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:20 pm
@BVV and PB go back up to #73, I’m chewing on the Tulo idea and want some input from opposite sides of the trade table.
If I pulled a risky Tulo trade and Cabrera is someone I don’t want to trade for my options are Crosby or Peralta.
PB-you dropped or contemplated dropping Yukahlile?
Aah shiznet! Just read Vlad has a jammed knee. What the heckle? Now I am thinking of breaking the cardinal rule and for the week and sitting him this week for Pence.
There goes some trade value this week.
@Steve: Oh, then, yeah go ahead and do it. Hope the guy doesn’t realize that you know have a starter that you don’t need at all and try and switch the offer.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Start Jo-Jo Reyes at home against Florida?
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Reading Steve’s comments about not using starters makes me wonder how screwy it looks in the totals if you played closers only. If the league gives equal value for wins and saves. You would take a hit on innings and Ks, then again maybe not, depending on the number of opportunities in a week.
a. unorthodox
b. crazy
c. interesting
d. porkburn should try it in razzball league
e. all of the above
@wakeNbake: Yeah, I would.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Grey@ Thanks for the tip. Maybe I will just hold on to him. This time last year I grabbed Ryan Braun and immediately offered him up for Mark Beurhle. Thank God it was rejected.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Jurrjens dropped in my league…
Thoughts?
Would you drop Laffey for him?
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
@SaltyBiscuits: Also just dropped in my league! I also have Laffey! I also am wondering how to proceed!
Wait — ARE WE THE SAME PERSON?
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
@BSA: I am basically trying it because it is just a different way of doing things. And because where I live (New Zealand) I am supposed to be putting the kids to bed when it’s time to be grabbing streamers! (league is H2H 5×5 plus Holds and OBP, with no starts/IP limit).
I drafted four closers and the best MRs I could get. I aim to win Saves, Holds, ERA and WHIP each week, plus three hitting categories.
I’m in third, so guess it’s going OK. Not logging many innings each week does leave you exposed to blowouts though. For example, this last week, Broxton’s meltdown and Street’s HR yesterday meant a possible 8-4 win turned into a 6-6 tie.
But the week before that, I got 4 wins, 5 saves, 5 holds, 34 Ks a .32 ERA and a .64 WHIP and won every category. If my opponent had monitored his roster more carefully I might not have won wins and Ks but that’s not my problem.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Alright west coast/ or anyone more capable than me of getting the latest on Vlad’s knee - what’s the news on Vlad - in or out this week?