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Little known facts about Sky.  Not only does he do some Deep League thinking, he plays in a keeper league.  A deep keeper league, if you will.  And for those new to the Razzball world, he also writes on the Fantasy Football side.  But if you’re new to the site, everything is news to you.  In fact, I think I could lie my arse off.  Maybe we should play one lie, two truths as a way to get to know each other?  But then again, why would we want to do that?  Let’s just stay friends…well maybe distant friends…better yet, let’s not be friends.  I’ll go with casual internet acquaintances.  I have problems with commitment…but of course when it comes to keepers, my Sterling Archer-like mommy issues  go out the window and I fall head over heels for guys that I want to hold and snuggle tight to my bosom.  Wanna know another truth?  I drafted Matt Harvey in my keeper league last year in the 8th round and was downright ecstatic.  Then he pitched like he did and I was straight up twitterpated over the man.  But then September hit, his arm basically fell off, and my heart felt like it had been ripped through my backside via roto-rooter.  All this to say, I’m not keeping him and chances are many players in keeper leagues will do the same as me and throw him back into the draft day pool.  But that doesn’t mean he won’t be mine again.  Oh yes, he will be mine again.  So here’s why I’m targeting Harvey the wonder pitcher in keeper  leagues for 2014 Fantasy Baseball…

I’m gonna throw some names out at you and you try and recognize the pattern, m’kay?  First, Adam Wainwright.  Next, Stephen Strasburg.  And for a wrap-up, let’s just go with Francisco Liriano, shall we?  Alright, still not sure?  I’ll give you the option of multiple choice then.  Is it A) Pitchers Grey has ranked in his Top 20 Starters for 2014 Fantasy Baseball, B) Pitcher’s who’ve had Tommy John Surgery, C) All of the above, D) Do you really need to think that hard about this?  Of course the answer is C.  Needless to say, TJ surgery used to be a scary thing to consider for pitchers but due to advancement in technology and learning from the past, coming back has become a cleaner path than it had been.  Of course, no one can promise you success upon return – Liriano took a bit to get things together and leaving a ‘pitch to contact’ mess in Minnesota – but a return to dominance is possible and promising for Harvey.  The thing is, it’s not gonna be in 2014 as these surgeries typically take a year to recover from.  But that doesn’t mean you don’t wanna get in via your draft or at least as a pick up in season in your keeper leagues.  Harvey made huge strides in his 2013 campaign, reducing his walk rate from high 3’s down to a miniscule 1.51 BB per 9 last year while maintaining a 9+ K/9 rate along the way.  To put these things in perspective, there were 16 pitchers with a BB/9 ratio of under two.  And of those 16, only two – Harvey and Chris Sale – had K/9 rates of 9+.  That’s rarefied air, peeps, and it doesn’t come along all that often.

Now a bit of the negative and I’m not referring to Type O.  You’re gonna need to keep him on the DL all year AND you’re gonna have to put up with probably a lumpy few months to start 2015 with so league size matters (that’s what she said!).  In some with only one DL spot and a standard size of league in the 10 to 12 range, you’re probably drafting him and dropping him.  In those leagues, just keep him in the back of your mind all year and pick him up when the time is right or you’re out of the running for the year early on.  For me, my keeper has 12 teams but 30 per roster and 3 DL spots so I don’t mind spending a late pick on his 2015 potential this year, especially since I can keep him in whatever round I draft him in.  Whatever your league setup is, Harvey should still be circled in your keeper draft portfolio as a player to target in 2014, even if its for 2015 and beyond.

From Around The Web

  1. Yaomiiiing says:
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    Great post. I think the guy in my league who owns Harvey is actually keeping him. Sucks for me. Anyway, where would you draft Abreu, Springer & Buxton this year in a 12 team 5X5 keeper league?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Yaomiiiing: Thanks Yao! Hope your foot is feeling better…

      Its all about the size of the league in terms of roster depth. I don’t think Buxton’s ETA is 2014 anywhere I’ve looked so do you have multiple NA spots? I’d be leery of drafting a guy that probably doesn’t play this year unless my roster size dictates its possible.

      Abreu is already going to go in the top 10 rounds, maybe sneak up to 8 or 9 if someone doesn’t have concerns about him being an average drain. I think he’s not going to be priced like a rookie on draft day and will most likely be avoiding him for that reason.

      Springer doesn’t have the job right now so I’d take a late teen flier on him (think 17th or 18th). But of course I’m thinking of my roster size where there are very few FA pickups that could replace him if I drop him before the season starts. If rookies like him are on and off rosters consistently in March because there’s FA depth for you to do that after the draft, you can sneak him up a couple more rounds if you really want him.

      • Yaomiiiing says:
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        @Sky:

        Thanks Sky, the foot is getting better lol.

        Thanks for the thorough reply. My league is 25 rosters deep with an additional 3DL spots and 2NA spots. Who would you target this year to plug into those NA spots? I guess they don’t really need to be rookies but like you’ve mentioned before, the uncertainty of rookies really is enticing.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          My approach to NA spots is based on a few things: team, previous rookie impact from said team/owner/gm, and how soon will I get to see the goods. I really like a lot about the Astros and the Cubs farm system this year. Baez I have circled as my top guy off the board because he can be an impact player right off the bat. Also like Bryant, Alcantara but think Baez is the first to come up. Correa intrigues me but Villar gets the first shot. Singleton I like as a solid 20 HR .300 hitter eventually, maybe more so I’m intrigued about him as well. Extreme darkhorse that probably doesn’t get drafted unless he has the job: Jonathan Schoop from Baltimore.

          A really good guy to hit up on here about prospects would be Scott. You should see what he has to say about guys he’d target too: http://razzball.com/category/fantasy-baseball-prospects/

          • Yaomiiiing says:
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            @Sky:

            Thanks for the solid input bro and I do also like Schoop #SchoopThereItIs

            Thanks again

              • Yaomiiiing says:
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                @Sky:

                Haha true. That’s a good one too.

  2. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    Sky, you read my mind, stole my thoughts via some techno-type of Vulcan Mind Meld. Hope no one in my Keeper league is reading this blog. I am starting my campaign immediately to increase DL slots to three. Then waiting on drafting Harvey as long as possible; if I lose on him, shouldn’t cost too much to pick him up.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Paulie Allnuts: Paulie! Good to see you around. I still need to sneak over and read your recent post. You’re always a joy to read on here.

      My league has 3 already and an NA spot. I really do hope Harvey is DL designated and not NA’ed. Teams are weird about that kinda thing sometimes.

      Even in my league, I’d be hard-pressed to believe the person who drafts him will be the person who owns him by the end of the year unless said owner is really lucky with injuries/timing. I’ll still be taking him late myself if I can snag him and holding on for dear life.

      • Paulie Allnuts

        Paulie Allnuts says:
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        @Sky: Thank you, Sky, for the compliment. If the Mets are in the race in August – not likely, to be sure – Harvey believes that he has a good chance to be ready to pitch. I believe that he is a bit too optimistic – he waited a bit too long for his surgery, and typically Tommy John’s take over a year for recovery – but this guy is a mean dude with a formidable attitude to compete – a bit like Clemens – and there is a glimmer of hope that he will pitch. Us Met fans, we still gotta believe!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @Paulie Allnuts: Yeah, it’s conjecture at this stage in my book and would hope the Mets and upper management would be smart enough to realize that’s not good for anybody long term. If the surgery had started earlier, as you said, I could get behind the idea but I’d be worried about long term issues of starting him back up too quickly and if its pennant race pitching? Ooph, that kind of stress on his arm right off of surgery…I just can’t get behind it.

  3. Drussss says:
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    not new to the site but now it seems I know everything about you.

    Which player beyond the 15th round you would draft on every one of your teams this year??
    I remember I had Segura in almost every league because he was going to late!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Drussss: I try not to be shrouded in too much mystery for my readers. In fact, I try not to stay shrouded at all when on Razzball…that’s a naked joke, FWIW.

      Ooph, there are a lot that come to mind because of the league I mention in the post and that really depends on what you consider the 15th round (i.e. whose rankings you use). Arenado is going later than he should. Kid’s swing is beautiful. Same with Avisail Garcia. Deeper leagues where I’d want to gamble at 2B, Schoop should have the job eventually in Baltimore over Flaherty/Weeks so I like him there. Khris Davis/Reddick good late power bats I will be pursuing. Liriano is ranked 197 by ESPN. I just don’t get that…Villar, Smyly, Ross…just remember, you brought this upon yourself. I could go on but I might as well write another post.

      • Drussss says:
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        @Sky:

        Another post always another post!

        Liriano based on my rankings which are not based on anything is abt 90-100 range. I just take Grey’s rankings and move people around on my whims.

        I do like Khris Davis. will add the others on my cheat sheet! Thanks Sky!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @Drussss: Ha, well you’re getting sneak peeks at some Deep League Thoughts posts with some of these names so there’s that. I probably have a couple more keeper ones to do. Will have to consult the schedule and see who should be covered/not.

          Not very often a club moves their stud OF – Braun – to give LF to an up and comer. Moves like that usually mean something in the long run which is a big part of why I like Khris.

          • Drussss says:
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            @Sky:

            Wow I got a sneak peak . I feel special Sky.

            From the looks of how much you love him we could have 2 Chris Davis’s as the All Star Game this year!

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Ha! I think of it more like trying to keep my readers intrigued without giving away too much. I’ve been reading a lot of Cosmo lately…

              • Drussss says:
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                @Sky:

                Looking forward to next post :)

                Sky reading Cosmo…. That seems appropriate….

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  It’s where I get the best source material!

  4. I don’t play in a dynasty and/or keeper league but if I did, I’d take a chance on Harvey. Like you pointed out, other players have made it back from this injury (Tommy John) and you could have got them for a great value. I like that strategy.
    Sort of reminds me of my fridge. I bought it at a “scratch and dent”outlet. got it for 1/2 price and other than a dent (on back side of fridge that you cant see), it works perfect. Ice, filtered water – all the bells and whistles…
    Happy 1st of March —–first game of MLB season is only 22 days away (Australia opener)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Pedro Martinez: Pedro, I don’t understand you sometimes when you’re on TV but you make a lot of sense here. Harvey has elite written all over him. Probably last year to get in cheap for his career.

  5. Mike

    Mike says:
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    Harvey went 82nd overall in a new dynasty league draft. Hoped he would fall a little further to me but no dice. This is a great post and I think you nailed it on how to handle him in different sized formats. Cheers

    • de nachos says:
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      @Mike: I meant to write this on your last post, but I’m not ashamed to admit I can recite Schmidt’s retirement speech verbatim, including sobs. Love the avatar.

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        haha thanks…no shame (so can I) 2 bad knees and a dream to play major league baseball…:)

        • de nachos says:
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          @Mike: I just thank God that dream came TRUE

        • de nachos says:
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          @Mike: did you see he’s gonna be in the booth on Sundays? I’ll miss Wheels – he was the last link to Harry K – but we’ll always have the video of him pumping his fists like a maniac as they clinched in ’08.

          • Mike

            Mike says:
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            No I didn’t see that! That’s killer.

            I liked Wheels too. He had some good sayings…I dug it when he called fast players “waterbugs”.

            Every now and then I pop in my 1980 NLCS DVD. Great series and the games called by Kalas and Ashburn. ;)

            • de nachos says:
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              @Mike: aw man, Whitey, Michael Jack’s speech, Harry… I’m going to need to sing Rubber Tree and cry into an Old Fashioned to purge these waves of emotions.

              • Mike

                Mike says:
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                Haha. And all before lunchtime!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Mike: Yeah, Dynasty gets a bit slippery because teams draft according to how far they feel they are from winning the whole thing moreso sometimes than where a guy should go. He probably should’ve gone lower but I’m guessing the guy who did that doesn’t have a good team for 2014?

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        Brand new league…startup draft.

        In a different league, a $17 Harvey is sitting there. We are only allowed 10 keepers in that one, and I can’t wait to see what the guy does with him.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ah, that would be a good reason too.

          $17 is interesting. It’s verging on too much if you don’t have a good plan heading into the draft. Man I wish my keeper league would switch to auction. Would be so much better.

          • Mike

            Mike says:
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            Yup, it feels like one of those in between numbers where you could make a an argument to keep him but also to let him loose. It’s a 5 year keeper with 5 dollar inflations so I’m hoping he gets thrown back to the wolves! :)

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Oooh, with inflation I’d personally throw him back and take a swing at him in draft. You’re paying $22 for him in 2015 that way and not getting any guarantees.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              I’ve only had a chance to do a couple of auctions but loved every minute of it. Put your money where your mouth is and take who you want. Perfect set up for a well-informed league.

              • Mike

                Mike says:
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                totes

          • Mike

            Mike says:
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            agree on auctions too. we made the switch a few years back and it’s taken it to another level in a good way

            • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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              @Mike: Mike,

              You can keep the guy for 5 years at the price you initially paid for him? Or $5 inflation for each year kept?

              I am looking to start a new auction keeper league and am trying to decide on the inflation stuff.

              I want to avoid overly complicated stuff. I ran a league like this some years back and it could be messy at time. How our system worked-
              player bought for $10 in 2003
              kept for 2004- salary remains $10
              kept for 2005- salary escalates to $15
              kept for 2006- salary escalates to $25
              kept for 2007- salary escalates to $35

              So it was $0, $5, and then $10 escalation every year after that.

              It became annoying for managers to keep track of everything.

              Player A’s salary does not escalate if kept. Player B’s will escalate by $10. Player C’s will go up by $5.

              I need a clean system or I won’t bother.

              • Mike

                Mike says:
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                ours is pretty simple… first year it’s their acquisition price. year 2 it stays the same. Years 3, 4, and 5 it increases by 5 each year. so pay 10 at auction, it would go 10, 10, 15, 20, 25 over the long haul.

                we also get a farm where guys are a buck after they lose their rookie status and their clock starts running. some big values if you nail it with a prospect, since the most you’d ever pay from them would be $16…

                • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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                  @Mike: Thanks. That’s a bit better than my old system.

                  I think a midseason 1 or 2 round draft for players not in the Yahoo database might be cool. Letting people draft Japanese players, Cubans, college players and high school dudes might be a’ight.

                  What is your league’s system for selecting farm guys?

                  • Mike

                    Mike says:
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                    there’s a separate MiLB draft (snakes based on standings). it’s usually 2-4 rounds each year. teams that finish out of the money but also out of the basement get extra MiLB picks. (it helps keep teams from tanking) the fun part is getting to use those minor league draft picks or players as trade chips in-season

                  • Mike

                    Mike says:
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                    letting people draft unsigned players is certainly an option, but my league doesn’t allow it

    • James says:
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      @Mike:

      I was in a new 12 team dynasty the year that Strasburg was out with injury (can you find a more obvious comparison), and i nabbed him in the 10th round range (10-12)

      I actually just turned down a trade for harvery (harvey and wheeler for machado) in a dynasty league. But i already know the harvey owner has something else in the fire to deal him.

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        @James: nice get on Stras. I’m with you and would rather have Machado.

  6. Lance says:
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    Speaking of keepers….
    18 team mixed 5X5 (obp) maximum 10 keepers and can only go up to 4 yr with inflation every year
    I have kept
    Desmond Jennings $ 4
    Pedro Alvarez$ 3
    Cris Carter $3
    Alex Cobb $3
    Kris Medlen $3

    Going to keep
    Shin Soo Choo $29 (1 or 2 years???) more may be too much inflation
    Xander Bogaerts $5 (I assume go for 4 years)

    Questioning keeping
    Matt Holliday $29 1 yr (I figure age etc may keep his value down)
    Adam Eaton $3 (4 years???) Will he be the man in 4 years?
    Also I have Gee $2/Aramis Ramierz $20/Garza $12/ but they do not seem as good to me.
    Do my keepers make sense? How long would you lock them up for?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Lance: I’d probably throw the remainders back and target them in the draft.

      What is the inflation price? I don’t see it. Either way, Bogaerts is a definite 4 year with the size of your league. Choo is a 1 or 2 depending on said inflation.

      • Lance says:
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        @Sky:
        It is on percentage. The cheap guys end up being a dollar more but at $29 Choo might cost me $4 more next year. Worth it for Choo. Just to clarify. Would you throw my question marks back (Holliday/Eaton)? I see Holliday as solid and would help my lower OBP guys but too old to keep very long. Eaton is supposed to be all that, batting lead off, etc but his projections this year at so so (Razzball has him at 78 R 8HR 59RBI 21S) but I don’t know if that is keeper worthy in the next few years.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @Lance: Yeah, I’d throw your question marks back, personally except maybe Eaton (more below). I get you about Holliday but two of his last 3 seasons he hasn’t stayed on the field for more than 150 games. Always hard to predict injuries but at 34, I’m inclined to let him go.

          I like Eaton if the price doesn’t creep up too quick. I’m not clear what the percentage thing is for your league but if all he does is creep up a buck or two, lock him for a couple of years and see what he does. I personally don’t go gaga over guys who seem like 10/20 candidates. Ceiling too low to keep for very long. Plus I don’t trust the White Sox OF minus Avisail and maybe I shouldn’t trust him either (but I do…cuz I love that man).

          • Lance says:
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            @Sky: I get you on Holliday. I was not thinking about his dependability THIS year I was worried about next year. Makes more sense to go upside on someone or maybe (doubtful) get a bargain on someone else. Eaton would cost (I think) 3 this year 4 next year and 6-7 the next year. If I kept him all 4 years maybe 9 or 10. I am with you on not getting excited about 10-20 guys. I have just heard so much good about him I did not want to pass him up and regret it later.

            Thanks for your help!

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              No prob, good discussion! Understand about Holliday. I think his bat is still dependable, just worry he may not be. It’s a personal bias so take that FWIW.

  7. de nachos says:
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    I always forget injured guys, thanks. Our keeper penalty is 3 rounds from the pick if we hold for the year, 6th round pick lost for free agent. I might have to target Harvey around 11 or 12 esp since I’m in NY, that could be a touch early if I have holes to fill (that’s what she said).

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @de nachos: Ha! Yeah, he should really be going after the 15th in most formats for the very reason you mention. Basically, when I’m starting to take the ‘boring and/or scary’ guys is when I’d consider him.

  8. Justin says:
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    Great post. If your in a 12 team league, with one NA spot, do you draft and hold him. Or take someone like Buxton?? Also in an ops 3 OF keeper league, who would you keep, Jennings or Yelich? Thanks in advance, always great reads.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Justin: Thanks for the kind words, Justin!

      I’m pretty sure Harvey is going on the deal so he won’t go in your NA spot/compete with your Buxton love. You’d have to DL him so it depends on how many of those you have whether its valid or not.

      I’d give Jennings one more try and target Yelich in the draft, personally. One will be easier to get than the other.

      • Justin says:
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        @Sky: Thanks for response Sky!! Now What about Avisial Garcia?? What are your thoughts on him. Kid looks like Miggy Cabrera and showed some promise last year. He will be avail in the upcoming draft but I can keep him as well. Do I stay with Jennings? Also with an extra Infield slot would keeping Matt Adams and Rizzo be a bad idea??

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @Justin: So this will sound odd for a guy who preaches ‘power above all else’ but when dealing with the young ones, I just care about how pretty the swing is and Avisail has one of the purtiest. He may never be a 30 bomb threat but he looks like a .300 hitter candidate with solid pop down the road.

          That said, Jennings over Garcia makes sense to me. You have to weigh who you can and can’t get back in the draft at a reasonable price. Garcia will still go late enough to nab him.

          I don’t hate the idea of keeping Rizzo and Adams. Depends who you’re keeping over them.

  9. Wake Up says:
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    Nice. Big fan of third person intros…and big fans.
    You must be a fan of ducks…my top 3 would be…Harlequin, Mallard and Wood…with the Wood Duck tasting the best…how much wood duck would a would chuck chuck if a wood duck could chuck wood?
    Also, here’s an idea for the ether…someone invent a Duck Call… that when you blow into it…it drives guys who use duck calls away! (read a motherducking book!)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Wake Up: HA! I write in 3rd person mainly because even I can’t stand to be around myself for too long.

      The odd thing is, I have Any duck list that leaves Howard off is not a list I can get behind for one simple reason: DUCK TITS

      Oh and the best part about your comment? I had to think about why the hell you were talking about duckcalls. Then I went and googled Duck Dynasty. Had no effing clue what the show was about cuz I don’t watch reality TV. Minus the Bachelor of course. Juan Pablo is an asshole…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Sky: Haha…
        re: 3rd person…preaching to the choir

        re: Wood Ducks…their breasts are nearly…but not quite…as tasty as those!

        re: Duck Dynasty…funny story…found out what it was during the State of the Union Address…someone brought along one of the drooling beards to the speech…

        re:Bachelor…I know right!…I couldn’t believe that thing he did/didn’t do…that was so crazy/unexpected…I really hope he does, ah, things… good…

        re: Minus the Bachelor- a show about the value of Absolut…

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          RE:RE: choir…OH LAWD!

          RE:RE: Wood Ducks…South Korea gives recently married couples wooden ducks so that they face each other all the time…except when you’re fighting or not getting along…my wife decapitated mine and mounted the head on the wall…not sure of the symbolism, could use help…

          RE:RE: Duck Dynasty…politics are no laughing matter…no funny story can be had about the State of the Union Address…FACT…except when George Bush spoke…but that’s just in general, SOTU be damned…

          RE:RE: Bachelor…TOTES!

          RE:RE: Absolut…how drunk is the average Razzball commenter at any given stage of the day? Sometimes wonder if we need a breathalyzer hooked up to the site…Jaywrong, you’re too drunk to post right now. Please go google free porn, do your business, go to bed, and come back tomorrow

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Sky: Ha!

            Interesting on S. Korea…

            Razzball is a drinking site with a fantasy problem…

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              @Wake Up: It’s a site full of Hemingways without a sober editor to prevent the mess.

  10. Brian in Buffalo says:
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    Thank you so much for the Wayne’s World reference.

    I traded Justin Verlander straight up for Matt Harvey in my dynasty league last month. Have insane pitching depth, so it seemed like a no brainer.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Brian in Buffalo: A world without Wayne’s World references is a world I don’t want to be a part of.

      Ooph, that’s a tough one. I probably would’ve wanted to go a bit lower but you probably wouldn’t have gotten him without giving back a top 10 pitcher, especially in a dynasty.

  11. American baseball has been very good to me. I appreciate good articles and fine cigars and this is a good article.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Pedro Martinez: Haha, thanks Pedro! I’ll see if I can send a good cigar your way and make it a full and good Saturday.

  12. Jason says:
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    Sky – I totally agree. I kept waino when he got hurt and it has since paid off.

    Quick keeper question for you. My league is 10 tm h2h. 5 keepers we allow offseason and draft pick trading. I’m keeping Votto stras Stanton kipnis and either beltre or machado. I’m torn here because I think beltre could have a big season. But I’m high on machado as well. I can move either for a similar package of picks in the draft that I could use as I traded my higher picks to go for it.
    I have been mocking but it’s hard to get a good read without knowing the draft pool exactly so I think I like what will be available to me. My first pick is a 71 then again at 105. I start fall into cadence about there. If I move beltre I get pick 70 as well plus a 14th rd pick. Moving machado nets me an 8th so like pick 75 or so and a 12th rd pick.
    Machado allows me to build toward the future and would give me a good core with Stanton and stras. Beltre makes me more competitive this year.

    What would sky do? Sorry for the manifesto.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Jason: I’m keeping Beltre there unless there, personally. When evaluating based on what pick you have in the draft whether or not to keep a guy, the bigger question is really ‘Who is going to be available to you? Can he replace ‘x’ guys production?’ Don’t think you get Beltre production from whoever you get at pick 70.

      In a 10 team and especially in an H2H, you play to be competitive every year. I wouldn’t say your league is deep enough to make a Machado vs Beltre keeper situation too worrisome. You’ll be able to find talent/youth in the draft and over the course of the season. Keep your eye on Scott’s prospect pieces and look into some of the young guns that’ll come up mid-season this year for keeper pieces along the way.

      • Jason says:
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        @Sky: ok cool. Everything was telling me that beltre was the keep, but I think machado is going to be that special type. I could always try to get him back too.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Yeah, you’re not getting Beltre back in the draft, IMHO. That’s why I’d lean his way. You can get Machado back but I wouldn’t want to rely heavily on him at this stage. I’d rather have the consistency for Beltre for at least one more year.

          • Jason says:
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            @Sky: yeah that seems to be the consensus. I have acdealnlined up to move machado to fill in some picks. Maybe I’ll target bogarts late in the draft.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Wow, Bog still out there? You’ll be fine with finding good young fliers then. Machado I worry may never reach his power potential. I know, I know he’s only 21. Still think if I’m trying to get a young 3B I want Arenado over him, personally. Think he’ll provide the power and the average. Love his swing. He adds a bit to his frame, he’s gonna be a monster with half his games in Coors.

              • Jason says:
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                @Sky: yeah gyorko is out there two although if I’m picking between coors and Petro that answers itself.

                We only keep 5 so there are plenty of options. Biggest obstacle is that the reigning champ has trout miggy Harper crush and tulo as keepers.

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  He has a big head start, still has to draft well though.

                  • Jason says:
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                    @Sky: true. Thanks for the thoughts man.

  13. Jason says:
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    Sky – I totally agree. I kept waino when he got hurt and it has since paid off.

    Quick keeper question for you. My league is 10 tm h2h. 5 keepers we allow offseason and draft pick trading. I’m keeping Votto stras Stanton kipnis and either beltre or machado. I’m torn here because I think beltre could have a big season. But I’m high on machado as well. I can move either for a similar package of picks in the draft that I could use as I traded my higher picks to go for it.
    I have been mocking but it’s hard to get a good read without knowing the draft pool exactly so I think I like what will be available to me. My first pick is a 71 then again at 105. I start fall into cadence about there. If I move beltre I get pick 70 as well plus a 14th rd pick. Moving machado nets me an 8th so like pick 75 or so and a 12th rd pick.
    Machado allows me to build toward the future and would give me a good core with Stanton and stras. Beltre makes me more competitive this year.

    What would sky do? Sorry for the manifesto.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      @Jason: ECHO…ECHo…ECho…echooooo; I keed, got ya up above.

  14. Jon says:
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    I’m in a 10-team league, 30 man rosters, 18 keepers and 4 DL spots. I was planning on keeping Harvey and happily using a DL spot on him all year. Think that’s a good move?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Jon: 4 DL and 30 man rosters…yup, good call as long as you don’t have any other pressing keeps at hand.

  15. Shane says:
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    Good Read. I drafted Harvey with last pick in my keeper league draft last week. Everyone completly forgot we play in a keeper league and he is beastly.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Shane: Boom goes the dynamite. Unfortch, a lot of people don’t skim the draft pool for value that extends beyond the year at hand, even in keeper leagues. Well, unfortch for them…

  16. manormachine? says:
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    A team in my league is going through this dilemma right now because I traded them Harvey for Goldschmidt before last season’s draft. What would you do if you were them?

    Harvey costs $3 and is entering his third year under contract. Our keeper rules work as follows: After two years, you may
    1. Keep a player at his current salary for 1 more year.
    2. Extend him for 2 years at current salary +$10
    3. Extend him for three years at current salary +$15.
    4. Cut the player.
    (Cutting a player signed to an extension under options 2 or 3 leaves you on the hook for half their salary for the rest of the contract.)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @manormachine?: Really depends on league size but my first inclination is to cut him this year without an extension and target him in the draft.

  17. exactly says:
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    Yeah, guy in our league dumped harvey back in. 30 rounds, 1 DL slot and if you draft you can keep for up to another 2 years with a 3 round penalty each year. Was thinking of drafting him anyway around 16/17…would you do this with 1 DL?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      The only issue I have with that is I question you hold him all year. How many teams is this? All it takes is for two of your guys whom you need for your team getting injured and you’re stuck with a thinned lineup. I’d wanna be the last person in on the Harvey train there rather than the first, personally.

      • exactly says:
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        @Sky: 13 teams and I hear ya.

  18. Ryan says:
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    In my 20 team dynasty league I was offered Hanley and mccutchen for profar pederson upton Yu bryant. Too much or good deal?

    c evan gattis
    1b miguel cabrera
    2b brandon phillips
    3b evan longoria
    ss jurickson profar
    lf justin upton
    cf shane victorino
    rf michael cuddyer
    util prince fielder
    bn kris bryant
    bn carl crawford/neil walker/michael morse/

    sp clayton kershaw
    sp yu darvish
    sp cliff lee
    rp jose veras
    rp sean doolittle
    rp dan delarosa
    p zack wheeler
    p dan straily
    p tanner roark
    bn garrett richards
    bn matt thornton

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I’m not super high on your prospects outside of Bryant but I personally wouldn’t do that deal in a 20 team. Could hurt long term.

      • Ryan says:
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        @Sky: thanks that’s what I was thinking. Plus my sp would take a hit. Do you see any specific types of moves I should try and focus on?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @Ryan: No prob. You’ll want to get younger in your OF. Crawford/Cuddy/Victorino are getting to the point in their careers where asking for 150 games apiece is getting dicey. I’d want to be targeting a lot of MI depth, too. Lot of good young guys out there. Cubs/Astros have some good up and comers. You should really buzz our prospect guy Scott, too. He’d be a great resource for a league like yours:

          http://razzball.com/category/fantasy-baseball-prospects/

  19. Bazzrall says:
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    Thanks Sky, I was just having this internal debate today… to keep him or not to keep him. We keep 14 guys in a 14-team league and it came down to keeping Beachy or Harvey. Think I’m going Harvey, as he’s almost surely get grabbed in our young-talent-obsessed league.

    • Bazzrall says:
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      @Bazzrall: 3 DL spots, so I’m okay with it.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        With 3 DL spots, your choice is reasonable. Plus I wonder how much people will pay attention to Beachy in drafts, even if they’re gunnin for the young ones. I’d still want him if I can get him.

        • Bazzrall says:
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          @Sky: I did pay a lot for him two seasons ago: traded Shields for Beachy and Fowler… neither of which I’m keeping this year…

          But I agree, getting Beachy back will be a lot easier (or could even upgrade) than Harvey will be.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            Yeah, sometimes that’s the angle people don’t think of: which one can you get back at a reasonable price? I throw back a lot of guys that way hoping to see them again. Did it with Werth way back when and it worked, got boned when I did the same thing with Choo the following year. Always a gamble but at least it’s a calculated one.

            • Bazzrall says:
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              @Sky: Glad we’re on the same page. It’s funny too – this is a very similar example to the one you provided. It’s Beachy, who’s already been through TJ and came back last year to work through his struggles and should be good for this year (SHOULD), vs. Harvey who just a week or two ago resumed throwing a baseball. Funny the value placed on guys regardless of health in some leagues in consideration of their potential and risk vs. reward.

              Thanks for your input and advice, man. Never have I asked a question whose answer was not appreciated on this site.

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                Haha, true. It’s amazing. Even in a keeper league, guys like Beachy get underrated on draft day. I look forward to getting in on him in my keeper league as well. Oh and glad we can help out. Lots of good writers/good guys in general writing around here, we appreciate feedback like this. Thanks!

  20. Ghost of the Disappeared says:
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    Sky: First let me say, I’m glad you are back… I was ready to send out a search party for ya.. Thought, you might have been banished to a new RazzBall International Badmitton and Synchronized Swimming section for internal disciplinary reasons – like, you know who!

    Drafting injured players is a great thing to do in deep keeper leagues – Especially, if you are rebuild mode or are taking that long view in a new leagues draft.

    Remember, how in 97, I stole Robin Ventura for a 1$ off the board that year late in draft. When his 3b /DH position was finally 2 blocked for all the other teams (it was an amazingly long tense wait through auction for me)… My famous TIME OUT!!! was talked about for years after… I had deadheaded my returning Dave Nillson (back when the Brewers were in the AL) at 3rd and faking out the room for the entire draft. Then at the final moment, I shifted him to the OF (where he was forgotten as being eligible ). In a stentorian voice, standing up, capturing the room’s undivided attention, I said to the auctioneer, “PLEASE, MOVE NILLSON TO THE OUTFIELD” (to the “huhs???”of the room) WE BID ONE DOLLAR ON ON ROBIN VENTURA OF THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX AT THIRD BASE.

    Needless to say, the room exploded. There were shouts and howls of protest. “NO NO NO!!!”, “THAT CAN’T HAPPEN”!!! — “IT’S AGAINST THE RULES”!!! — “THAT’S BULL POOPOO’ — AND PLENTY MORE!!!…

    Once the smelling salts had been administered to the more emotional of the owners, the ones who had the highest reserve round picks in the room, who already were picturing Robin as theirs (before even the auction had started), I had a 1$ him = Robin Ventura. It was like the smell of napalm in the morning was to Lieutenant Colonel William “Bill” Kilgore. It was Victory!!!

    Picked up a 1$ injured Saberhagen that year too… Folks were stunned by that too.

    I was in Rebuild Mode and it still was, my best moment in fantasy baseball.

    There is no better thing than a 1$ player in Auction FBB… The next best priced player costs you twice as much. Those One Dollar slots often carry a weight greater than their statistical contribution – they can be huge. And their trade weight can be massive as well.

    Glad you are back safe, sound and amongst the not undead.

    Poor Jay… I visit him every now and then in the RB FF gulag. Hard to hang out there for long though – he is SO depressed. I really think, you as a friend, should put him under some type of professional observation – if not, a full fledged suicide watch. I’m worried about our little SotS doing something desperate out there in the frozen wastes of RazzBall FF Siberia

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      My favorite draft day moment of recent memory has been getting Alex Cobb late last year. My least favorite in season moment of recent memory was dropping Alex Cobb when he got his noggin drilled by a liner and watching him come back like it never happened for another team.

      I call Jay on the hour to make sure the frozen tundra of fantasy football hasn’t muddled his brain to the point that he’s willing to cut himself or others just to see a different color than the snowy white vastness. He tells me he’s grown a beard and lives off the foraging of what little he finds underneath the snow mounds around his quinzhee. He said he ate a frozen squirrel yesterday and they do actually taste like chicken. Though he has developed the habit of talking to himself while on the phone with me and says it’s not him, it’s Gee Wright and that he’s a braggart and a slob who won’t pick up after himself.

      Grey threatened me with taking over Fantasy Buzkashi if I didn’t up my fantasy baseball game. I think/hope this article proves me worthy.

      • Ghost of the Disappeared says:
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        @Sky: @Sky: HAHAHAHA had to google Buzkashi.. And BINGO!!!..

        Wouldn’t ya just know it, the guy in the picture in the picture on the site – the one reaching out to steal the goat carcass from the lead rider, looks just like the posted picture of Jay Wrong.

        You don’t think, he has gone native on us, do ya??? A Lord Jim or Dances With Wolves or Avatar or a Coneheads routine.

        Being out there for too long can play tricks on even with strongest willed of men. Just think what this kind of shock cultural immersion might do to a sensitive visceral intuitive like our Jay.

        If he returns, tries to rub noses with you in greeting and is carrying his Mongol horsewhip everywhere along with his nipping at a hip flask of komis, you will know – We’ve got BIG trouble. – A latter day Genghis Wrong on the Razzball Boards

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Genghis Wrong…I’m so using that at some point. I’ve sent him a volleyball with a bloody handprint on it so he has someone else to talk to besides Gee Wright. At the very least now any conversation can’t turn into an argument as there’ll be at least one person – imaginary or not – to break up a fracas.

  21. Skooter says:
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    Are any of these keepers worth it in an AL only 10 team league? Or is it too early for all of these guys? I’m trying to wring all the value I can out of my keepers.

    De Aza – Rd 9
    Reddick – Rd 9
    Straily – Rd 13

    Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Don’t play many ‘only’ leagues so be fair warned. I’d say De Aza if the Sox weren’t ninnies and saying him and Viciedo will split time. Viciedo should be a bench bat or a DH but hey, it’s not my team. I like Reddick to return to form and get back to his power-hitting ways this year. I could see keeping him. Not big on Straily, personally.

    • Mike says:
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      @Skooter: I would drop all 3 players

  22. Mike says:
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    I am thinking about picking up Parra CF because he plays in the first game in Australia. I would like to know where is ranked and how many steals, runs and average for 2014.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Grey didn’t rank him and he’s not high on many other rankings. He’s a 10HR, 15SB kinda guy. Depends where he’s at in the lineup whether he’d score a lot of runs or not but he’s not going to be in a prime RBI slot. Probably hits .275. He’s waiver wire fodder but you can pick him up late in your draft to ride him for Australia.

  23. Mike says:
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    thanks

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      No prob

  24. Eddy says:
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    Nice, Sky, I didn’t even consider this.

    My only worry is that I have one DL spot, so I can pick him up and stash him, but the moment one of my guys gets hurt, I either have dead weight, or drop Harvey and risk someone else picking him up, knowing what I was up to.

    Here’s to no one remembering him!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Yup, I weighted that conundrum in my post. You don’t want to be the first out of the gate on Harvey in a league like that. You want to be the last man standing there. Wait till someone else drops him and do your thing.

  25. dean says:
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    pick 2 out of these 3 to keep. Gyorko, Sonny Gray, Trevor Rosenthal.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Gyorko/Gray

  26. JimSlim says:
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    I have to pick 6 keepers. No dollar value. Pretty simple I guess
    I got Tulo and Kershaw as obvious. Probably keeping Elsbury Pujols and Cliff Lee. Then I must decide between Kinsler, Ortiz or Kimbrel. Who would be your last pick and are my 1st 5 the right choice, I know pitching is deep my league has OPS and K/W ratio.

    Thanks Sky

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      I’m assuming there are no round values associated either. Pitching is deep but it doesn’t mean you keep any of those other three over Cliff or Kershaw. K/W I assume means K:BB..or is it K/9? Either way, I’ll take a chance that Ortiz keeps it up for one more season. His OPS is at elite levels.

  27. Greyismyhero says:
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    Hey Sky, nice writeup and I too am a owner of Harvey in my keeper. I’m gonna let him go though and hopefully get him back in later rounds…A risk I choose to take….Question for you…12 teamer, H2H…non-keeper, drop Bourjos for K. Davis? Thanks.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      I’ll take power over speed 9/10 times and I’ll do it here now as well and say Davis. Like Bourjos but don’t think he sees enough ABs as the Cards rotate their bats too much for my taste, especially in an H2H setting.

      Good luck with Harvey!

  28. Tyler says:
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    Nice read.

    Might as well throw my keeper question out there too. 12 team 5×5 with OBP.

    I think my best deals are 3 of

    Adam Jones for 28
    Hosmer for 17
    Wacha for 1
    Arenanado for 1
    Ozuna for 1

    Would love to hear your thoughts.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Nice values. Is there inflation? Keeper rules? I’d want Jones/Wacha/Arenado without extra info

      • Tyler says:
        (link)

        @Sky:

        Can keep 3 ML players with an optional MiL for 0. ( In my case it’s Castellanos)

        Players raise $5 per year indefinitely and my Jones and Hosmer contracts reflect that. Players added from FA reset their contracts and can be $1. Both Arenando and Wacha were dropped mid season by other teams for some reason.

        Wacha seems like my best choice but couldn’t decide on the other two spots.

        Thanks for the response.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          No problem. I’m a big Arenado guy.

  29. Tehol Beddict says:
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    Domonic Brown

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Darin Ruf

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Sky: cody asche larry

  30. griff says:
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    Sky,
    in a dynasty league, I’m being offered Justin Expander for Manny Machado or Xander Bogaerts. Make the trade? If so, which one?

    • griff says:
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      @griff: and that should be Verlander…damn auto correct.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        Damn FUNNY auto correct is what you meant. My answer depends heavily on where you’re at. Are you a contender right now or building up to be one? A move for a 32 year old Expander (it’s still funny!) won’t look good in about five years but if it puts you over the top for the next couple, it’s worth it. I’d want to keep Xander over Manny, personally.

        • griff says:
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          @Sky: what if I counter with Machado for Strasburg?

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            I’d do that, assuming I’m really in need of front end rotation stuff on my staff

      • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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        @griff: Why did your phone auto correct Verlander to Expander but left Bogaerts alone? Bogaerts should have changed to Boogers.

  31. Jason says:
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    Gotta 16 team h2h 30 man roster 8 keepers 2 of which must be pitchers. I’m keeping Edwin mccutchen Desmond heyward machado waino Moore.

    Last spot goes to who out of :
    Hamels, pence, profar, Lester, liriano,

    Pence would start as my util because we start LF CF RF

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I’d personally swap in Liriano over Moore and take a chance on Profar.

  32. The Theory says:
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    I’d be curious as to roughly where you think Harvey will be ranked for the 2015 drafting season, assuming nothing weird about the recovery?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Good question. I don’t have the data handy but I think he’d go similar to where Wainwright went in 2013. Basically the draft room will show a little apprehension but he won’t slip far.

  33. Dude says:
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    Sky- would appreciate some keeper advice. Among hitters, a $7 C.Quentin or Venable, MattAdams or Gattis, all at $10? Among pitchers, Liriano or RexBrothers, each $2? Thanks a lot!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Should I assume this is NL only? I’d want Matt Adams and Liriano for sure. Maybe Venable if NL only as a third (if that’s possible).

  34. T-Bone says:
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    I own Harvey in an 18 team keeper. I have strong batting but weak pitching and plenty of bench/DL space available. I can keep him at last years price of $17 but I’m already keeping $132 of my $260 and am looking to improve for this year. Throw him back in the pool and try and get him for a cheaper price?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      @T-Bone: I’d be throwing him back and targeting him in the draft. Sounds like you need to get him cheaper to stay competitive this year or at least let your draft let you know how much you can spend on him to do so.

  35. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    If you have a few minutes, could you outline your round-by-round draft strategy for each draft slot in, say, an RCL format? You’re the best!

    • Wake Up says:
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      @Big Magoo: Word on the street is CC in the 2nd…

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ha! Man, him and Panda both…I wonder if they went on the Amanda Bynes all coffee and crack diet.

  36. Brett says:
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    In a keeper league where you keep a player at his auction price, how much would you spend on Harvey? 12 teams 260 budget. Thanks

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Brett: Personally would want to get in between 5-7 max. He’s not playing this year. Even in a keeper, people shouldn’t be overspending on him.

  37. Harvey was sick before his arm blew a gasket. I don’t care if they have to take some muscle from his buttocks and attach it to his arm as long as they get him out on that mound again.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      @J-Shizzle the 3rd: I think you should offer some of your butt muscle. Support the cause!

      • @Sky: I would but already sold my extra buttocks muscle to Jerry Jones . He used it for facial reconstruction

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Makes sense. Always knew Jerry Jones was an ass.

          • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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            @Sky: assface to be exact

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              And an asshat which has zero to do with the surgery but all I can say is Jason Garret

  38. American baseball has treated me very well. I wish Harvey a speedy recovery and I wish for the Yankees to suck again in 2014. Please, somebody wake up that Bambino so I can plunk his fat a~~ with a fastball.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Ha!

  39. Joey says:
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    So i am in a keeper league for the first time. We can keep up to 6 guys, but you get to keep them where you draft them every year. Any chances of a “Top 200′ type post for keeper leagues? It would be great for the large amount of mangers in keeper leagues this year. Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      I know Jay Wrong did a top 100 – http://razzball.com/top-100-keepers-2014-beyond/

      To be honest, having played in a keeper myself I have to say there are way too many factors to weigh who a keeper should and shouldn’t be that are very league-specific. The valuation of whether or not that’s a good keep will probably vary from team to team. You aren’t necessarily weighing a guy based on merits, you are weighing them on cost/round valuation and by other factors such as can you get them back in the draft and what is their upside. I’m throwing Wilin Rosario back because he’s a 12th round keep but I have Gerrit Cole, Liriano, Matt Adams and Avisail Garcia taking up my 27th through 30th spots. I know Rosario is ‘the better player’ and would be ranked higher in a keeper format than at least 3 of those 4 on most lists. But he gives me the chance to make room for other draft day moves that could improve my team overall.

      Anyways, I don’t know if Jay is cooking up a top 200 – I don’t believe he is – but figured I’d give you my own two cents on keeper valuation process.

  40. Dano

    Dano says:
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    I just got offered votto for harvey, g.polanco & arcia…i told him i’d do it if i can swap rendon for g.polanco…im in it for the win-now otherwise id say no to this.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Yeah I like those guys, especially Arcia. That’s a fair trade for both sides if you’re looking at this year as long as it’s not Polanco.

  41. Ghost of the Disappeared says:
    (link)

    SKY: SKY: SKY!!!!!! B I L L Y B U R NS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Know this name. Move him way up your ranking boards for reserve drafts ….. NOW!!!!

    He is rather unknown… He came over to the A’s in the Blevins deal

    SUPER SPEED and he’s a ballplayer…

    He is on almost no tout prospect lists now.. He is a older for his level player @ 24 YO (out of Mercer U in GA. – You know, that BB powerhouse)

    He has been fast tracked and was the MiLB player of the year for the Nats in 2013 – no power at all – but with 77 SB – 7 caught in 2013 last year – who cares. He finished in AA last year.

    He is a throwback slap hitter.. The second coming of Ty Cobb – The Georgia Peach???? Ya never know…

    Fast forward to yesterday.. His 2nd appearance for the A’s this spring … A rain out threatened, so Melvin crosses out Crisp on his car and pencils in Burns at CF leading off… This might have changed this kids life and the A’s future.

    His plate appearance; he chops (his style) what looks to be an ordinary infield out, there is a warp drive blur along the first base line and the routine out throw is left light years behind. He makes a laugher steal of second on a 3-2 count that was canceled by a walk to Punto batting behind him. Then, the A’s double steal = Another laugher to 3rd… There is a shallow fly ball to left… He for all intents and purposes steals home on the retouch for the A’s first run. That’s 4 base taken by speed for a run. WOW!!! But, that ain’t all

    He winds up going 2 for 4… But, that ain’t all

    In the 8th, he gets on by his speed forcing an error by TEX, he steals 2nd and scores from 2nd the game tying run on an error – on a throw to first .. But, that ain’t all

    He threw out a runner at 3rd with his speed in getting to the ball and a great throw.. But, that ain’t all..

    In the 7th with Tex ready to break the game open, he throws another runner out – at the plate this time to end the inning. Whata a start to ST this kid is having. THE OAKLAND STAFF’S EYES ARE WIDE OPEN NOW..

    Yes the kid is 2 blocked, by Gentry and Crisp right now, But, he could be a call up this season if either goes down – almost a certainty for Crisp… He certainly will arrive in Sept.

    This kid is worth of a 1st 10 round Ultra AL on only pick this year. Speedsters are often worth more for cameos … His name will grow this year and he will be great trade bait. Another reason top prospect sheets are SO lame.

    Take a look at his #s from last year – WOWEE ZOWEEE …

    I am not a fella to get excited by speedsters normally… But, this kid has SUPER SLEEPER prospect written all over him…

    He will play MLB in 2014 – You heard it here first on the SKY DEEP SHOW of the RB TOWER’s network.

    B I L L Y B U R NS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    CC Genghis Wrong ( This should been on your FBB show, kiddo)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Ha, nice find! His MiLB profile looks solid for a base stealer. High walk rate, low K rate. Sounds like his K rate is directly proportional to him knowing his game and slapping the ball rather than trying to tattoo it every time up. A speedster that can both get on base and has a high contact rate is good in my book. I’ll keep him in mind.

  42. Matt B says:
    (link)

    Love the article. Any chance you can help?
    I’ve got back-to-back picks, who would you take? These are equivalent to picks 78 & 79. After these 2 I will be waiting 16 picks for my next back-to-backs.

    *5×5 but OBP instead of AVG (Very Important)
    *12 Team Weekly Head-to-Head Dynasty, Keep 7 (or Keep 5 and draft 2 in Supplemental draft)
    *C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OFx3, Util; SPx4, RPx2

    Keeping:
    1) SP1 Kershaw
    2) SS H Ramirez
    3) OF1 G Stanton (nice bump in OBP)
    4) C Santana (huge bump in OBP vs his .260 avg)
    5) 3B R Zimmerman

    Avail in Supplemental:
    2B I Kinsler (slight upgrade in OBP) or I could go J Profar (upgrade in OBP, might be might last chance in a dynasty but would he be top 80 keeper in 2015?)
    1B E Hosmer (downgrade in OBP)
    OF2 A Gordon (neutral in OBP)
    OF2 C Gomez (downgrade in OBP)
    OF2 A Rios (big downgrade in OBP)
    OF2 J Werth (upgrade in OBP)
    Util D Ortiz (upgrade in OBP)

    In weekly Head-to-Head I tend to like bats that can get me HR & SB.
    9 of 12 teams have keeper 1Bs. Best avail: Hosmer, Abreu, A Gonzalez, M Napoli (obp bump), A Craig, B Moss, B Belt
    6 of 12 teams have keeper 2Bs. Best avail: Kinsler, J Profar (too early for dynasty?), Zobrist (obp bump), Carpenter, A Hill, C Utley (obp bump)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Hey Matt, glad to help.

      Not saying this to be cutting, but OBP is only 1 of 5 cats you get from hitters. I think you’re highlighting it a bit too much in your approach. Take that for what it’s worth, I’m simply throwing it out there.

      I’d take Either Gomez or Rios in that scenario. They stuff other categories well. I’d be inclined to go Gomez between those two. From there, probably Hosmer. Again, I don’t overly worry about one category when I feel a guy can help with the other 4.

      • Matt B says:
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        @Sky: Awesome advice. I have been focused internally on figuring out how much OBP adjusts value on a player-by-player basis, which in my experience has identified solid HR & RBI that have negative AVG value in 5×5, but have positive OBP value in obp5x5 making them worth quite a bit more in the format. But you are completely right in that I shouldn’t ignore the other categories & specifically guys that can drop HRs & SBs in the same week.
        I’m totally with you and really like Gomez at this spot. I’m torn between Hosmer & Kinsler…Leaning towards waiting on 1B because there are less teams shopping & more attractive later round options when compared to 2B but Hosmer is on the up and Kinsler on the down

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          I think 2B is going to be a draft day sink hole. A lot of guys are going to be overvalued. I’m thinking it’s a position that will get stronger in season and not one I’m willing to spend on at the draft table. I’ll take a late round flier over most top 10 2Bs this year.

          • Matt B says:
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            @Sky: Lock & Load Gomez & Hosmer! Thanks for the help

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              No problem, best of luck!

    • frankgrimes says:
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      @Matt B: I’d consider kinsler how could he not have a great year?

  43. A2K says:
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    I’m in a 12 team keeper league that keeps 8 players.
    Snake Draft.

    No compensation for players kept but keeper life is limited to three years.

    5×5 Yahoo League
    C, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, ci, mi, of, of, of, of, of, ut
    sp, sp, rp, rap, p, p, p, p, p
    8 Bench

    Keeping:
    Jason Kipnis
    David Ortiz
    Carlos Gomez
    Aroldis Chapman
    Kenley Jansen
    Ben Zobrist
    Danny Salazar
    Torii Hunter -or- Doug Fister

    My dilemma is taking the first pick overall or picking toward the end of the first round in order to have two picks in the top 15.
    I could guarantee myself M Cab or Cutch and hope for the best at pick 24 -OR- I could take a 10, 11, or 12 pick and hope for a combo of Longoria and Bruce/Pujols.

    Pick early? Pick Late?

    The top 25 is projected to be something like this, a lot of good players going back into the draft.

    Miguel Cabrera
    Andrew McCutchen
    Robinson Cano
    Prince Fielder
    Adrian Beltre
    Hanley Ramirez
    Troy Tulowitzki
    Evan Longoria
    Clayton Kershaw
    Joey Votto
    Jay Bruce
    Jose Bautista
    Albert Pujols
    Jacoby Ellsbury
    Cliff Lee
    Felix Hernandez
    Justin Upton
    Jose Dariel Abreu
    Matt Holliday
    Dustin Pedroia
    Jose Reyes
    Elvis Andrus
    Ryan Zimmerman
    Adrian Gonzalez

    Any responses/insight appreciated.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      A top 4 player vs two top 40 players, I’ll take the top 4 player. Hard to find Miggy or Cutch level production later. Set’um and forget’um guys are great.

    • frankgrimes says:
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      @A2K: you can get swiggy and you’re not sure if you should take him. that’s a clown question bro.

  44. TobiasFunkeAnalRapist says:
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    Great Read, ill be grabbing him late this draft even though he cost me first place this past year. Keeper question between Zimmerman (Ryan) and Mauer, my league is 6×6 with obp and average as two of the categories. I also have Areando in my minor league system and could pull him up at anytime. Would you keep Mauer for a 5th rounder or Zman for a 3rd rounder? I’m already keeping Trout for a 5th and Goldy for a 7th so I’m stacked offensively but Mauer would provide great value for OBP/Average and will have C eligibility. Which would you keep? Thanks.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Nice, RE: Arenado. Not really a big fan of either, TBH, but I’ll take Zimm there. I’m not a huge Mauer/positional scarcity guy. Think I’d rather target a catcher like Ramos late than sit on Joe.

      • TobiasFunkeAnalRapist says:
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        @Sky: I could also keep Werth for a 12th rounder, Alex Gordon for a 6th, Cashner for a 16th rounder, Matt Moore for a 11th, or Ryu for a 15th rounder. Those OF spots would be for my 3rd outfielder as I already have Cutch and Trout. Or would you just keep Zimm still? Thanks.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Still roll Zimm. If Arenado starts raking, he’ll still be a good trade chip.

  45. frankgrimes says:
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    who you like more for a keeper this year JUp or Bruce? it’s H2H points if that matters to you.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      BRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCE. Bruce is up and down but still hits 30 HRs. I never know what J-Up is gonna do and at this point don’t want to have him on my team to find out.

      • frankgrimes says:
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        @Sky: Brucely I agree. I’ve had Upton for years waiting and waiting so fuck him ha. This year we reduced the number of keepers to only three.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Almost a redraft league at that point. Just ‘keep and draft’ or are there round incentives?

          • frankgrimes says:
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            @Sky: no we dropped that too. it’s a long time league but we added some new owners and lost a couple so it was a way to let em get more competitive in a sense. I wanted keep all or auction but was out voted ha.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Haha of course…It’s always a balancing act of how to keep/get all involved. Unfortunately it makes everyone pander to the middle or minimal.

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Sky: why didn’t you hit Grimey up for the league, I’ve been trying to get a hold of him

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Figured you had emailed him and thought you’d already made contact.

  46. Mike B says:
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    I went through all the comments to make sure I didn’t ask a question previously answered.

    There are 3 pitchers in 3 different stages of TJ with whom I find intrigue: The aforementioned Harvey is owned as a 17th round keeper (3 round forgiveness for TJ/torn ACL type injuries, along with a 60DL spot) and seems to be unattainable. Beachy, who has shown brilliance, while not of Harvey’s ilk, should be full strength heading into 2014 and I plan on taking later than he really should be available. The third pitcher I’d like to pick your brain about a bit more… Dylan Bundy was the elite prospect that projected as a potential ace like Harvey, and his stage of recovery falls somewhere between the other two. He has been released into the player pool, and I want to get a better idea where to target him. We keep 10, roster 29, 2 normal DL spots (60DL only available to rostered players who sustain injury), kept players cost 1 round above draft pick increasing 1 each year. Most of the top prospects already owned. I had/have Sano as one of my keepers, and am most likely parting ways with him. I also have Ortiz, so there are some openings in the near future.

    Really enjoyed your write-up!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Thanks Mike! Baltimore has been slow and/or poor at developing their prospect arms in the past. I am not big into buying him partially for that reason and other partial, I think he will pitch late in the season – meaning he will move off your DL – and will struggle with the typical command issues that come with TJ recovery. I’m a year away from giving him a shot on my team, personally, and am not buyin that big into him.

  47. papasmurf says:
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    Last August, another team offered me Longo and Harvey for Goldschmidt. I accepted the offer. About three days later, the Harvey news hit, and he literally did not pitch one inning for me. I kept him anyway for 2014. Might be a dumb move to waste a keeper on an injured pitcher, but it wasn’t like I gave up another top player to keep him. My roster was god awful.

    As a Met fan and now an owner, I hope he recovers fully.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      As an MLB fan in general, I hope he has a full recovery. He was fun to watch. Tough luck on the keeper trade. No chance you could’ve thrown him back and gotten him cheaper?

      • papasmurf says:
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        @Sky: My league requires a minimum of 5 keepers and I had trouble stringing together that 5… dreadful roster even for a 16 team league. I thought I might as well keep Harvey rather than keep a mediocre keeper and risk losing him entirely.

        No $ value assigned.

        The recent success of TJ pitchers made me more comfortable that he’ll be fine next year.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ah gotcha. Yeah, that’s reasonable then. Sometimes it is about who else you have to keep. Harvey is a fine keep for you then.

  48. Bob says:
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    Keeper Help Needed!

    10 Team ML
    Head to Head-Roto Categories
    5×5 with K’s for hitters and QS for Pitchers added
    Weekly lineup Lock
    Standard MLB Positions with DH (players must be DH eligible)

    We can only Keep 5. Deciding between
    C/1b-Posey
    1B-Paul Goldscmhidt
    SS-Hanley Ramirez
    3B- Adrian Beltre
    1b/DH-Edwin Encarnacion
    OF-Ryan Braun
    OF-Carlos Gomez
    OF-Jacoby Ellsbury
    P-Strasburg
    P-Sale
    P-Price

    I was thinking Posey/Hanley/Beltre/Encarnacion/Strasburg

    Tough to throw back Goldy, but 1b is easier to fill than Catcher and DH who hit and have low K’s. Or should I toss back Posey and hope to draft Lucroy?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      ML?

      Yeah, you don’t keep the inferior player because he players at a thinner position. Not sound logic. Goldy/E5/Hanley/Beltre/Braun. Pitching in a 10 team will be easy enough to fill in your draft. Those 5 hitters have the potential to be top 10 players, take them and run. All this assumes there are no advantages based on round drafted/price/etc…

      • Bob says:
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        @Sky:

        ML=All MLB Universe. And so don’t keep any pitching? And no other stipulations. I have the 10th and 11th pick cause of the snake. Would you go pitching and pitching. Or grab Speed and Pitching to round out the top of the team.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Gotcha. You have the ability to keep 5 hitters who can hit 150 combined HRs, drive in 500+ RBI and score 500+ runs while chipping in about 60 steals. I don’t see a good argument to keep an arm given that scenario, personally.

          It really depends who’s out there who I’d grab. Like I said, 10 team isn’t very deep. There should be a good amount of arms available given the size of the league and that you only keep 5. You’re basically drafting in round 6 and 6-9 is where I’m considering an arm in 12 team so you’re in range. Just really depends on who’s there.

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