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When Jeremy Bonderman was designated for assignment on Monday, I left work, went to the bar next door, bought nine shots of Jameson, drank 11 shots of Jameson — I don’t know where the other two came from — and then drove home. I was ecstatic. Like Grey, I had been desiring an Erasmo-Ram for my behind for quite some time, and not until Monday did I finally get to feel its smooth touch. It was fantastic. On Monday night, in my drunken sleep, I once again fantasized about Erasmo Ramirez, but was interrupted when Grey entered my dream and caught E-Ram cheating on him with me, which pretty much ruined my night. Grey and I weren’t on speaking terms Tuesday, but Wednesday morning we agreed to share E-Ram in some type of fantasy domination sex triangle. The whole triangle, though, of course balances perilously on E-Ram’s nauseating Thursday matchup against the Red Sox — a matchup you don’t want to bet love, or at least sex on. This fantasy baseball Ramirez fantasy is so vivid and marvelous, of course, because Ramirez is one of those young studs that has the keeper potential to carry your staff year-in-year-out, allowing you to focus solely on offense for the first six or seven rounds of your draft. It’s a relieving feeling. I don’t really need to elucidate any further on what Ramirez offers as a one-year pitcher or a keeper guy, because a) Albright did that already, and b) love needs no explanation. What do need explanation, though, are those other guys who might not be so lovely, yet still look keep-able.

The fantasy trade deadline is approaching as fast as anything else approaches, but it warrants extra attention because if you cross the line unprepared, you’re dead. See? In keeper leagues, as I’m sure you know, not only do we have to make trades to help our odds down the stretch for this year, but we also have to try and gauge exactly how guys will be perceived next year, and if that said gauge merits acquiring said player now or if we can wait until next year’s draft to pick him up. Not to mention gauging whether or not that guy is even good anyway. If a player you have might be coveted next year but sucks anyway, well, you don’t want him. But you know this. Let’s get to the interesting guys that will/won’t help you down the 2013 stretch and who you should/shouldn’t keep for next year and beyond.

Alex Cobb (219.9, $2 ADP in 2013; 150, $7 next year)

Excitement surrounded Cobb coming into 2013, and that excitement has proven sturdily supported. Turns out, he’s pretty much throwing the same stuff as he did last year, which is kind of a boring thought. According to Fan Graphs‘ PITCHf/x, Cobb’s throwing fastballs 46.8% of the time after last year’s 49.3%, is throwing his curve 21.1% of the time after last year’s 19.1%, and has only increased change-up by 0.3%, a percentage not even worth mentioning, but I’ve already typed it, so it’s staying. All of this is pretty standard.

His strikeout rate is higher, his is walk rate lower, and he’s still getting a lot of ground-balls. One thing that strikes me as odd, though, is his left-on-base percentage. What sat at 68.5% last year, now sits at an uber-duper-super high 81%, especially for a guy who isn’t an uber-duper-super strikeout guy. That rate for a guy whose SO/BB is 4.17 with bases empty and 2.36 with runners on? That won’t hold.

Don’t want to kick a guy while he’s down (why the hell did the MLB decline adding kevlar to the inside of pitchers’ hats?), but he’s obviously not as good as he showed pre-concussion. If he comes back and puts up a 3.60-3.70 ERA for the rest of the season, his numbers will still be pretty at year’s end, so next year he’ll be drafted even higher than he was this year. He won’t fulfill those earlier picks, but if you keep him next year for the price paid in 2013’s draft, he’ll be a good fantasy #3. Go grab him from a bored, impatient owner, and cite Brian Roberts.

Jose Fernandez as suggested by Razz’s own Mike Buttil (Undrafted; 60s, $4 next year)

Jeez, guys, I’m sorry I excluded from my last pitcher column. He was undrafted this year and will shoot up the draft charts for 2014. Like, shoot like a gun. Guns shoot. Fast. Shoot fast. He will shoot fast. Up the draft charts. How do similes work?

Meanwhile, Jose’s saying “how do learning curves work?” He’s sitting there asking with Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado. Matt Harvey, too.

It’s really hard to poke holes in a 20-year-old who already looks like a bona fide staff ace. He’s adored by scouts, throws five pitches for strikes, and has almost a 10-MPH difference between his four-seamer and change.

The one hole to poke, though, is that a guy with a 0.78 GB/FB rate won’t always have a 5.6% HR/FB rate. When you allow that many fly-balls your HR/FB rate will graduate closer to 7% than 5.6%. Fortunately for Fernandez — and hey, why not induce pops while pitching there? — he plays in Crayola Canyon. His home/road splits are weird — 1.47 ERA at home, 4.17 away — and you’d think that’s because of the Miami benefits for a fly-baller, but he’s only allowed one more homer in basically the same amount of innings. Chalk it up as a 20-year-old adjusting to away parks, and love him forever. Even if that homer rate levels, he’ll be going for much higher than you got him for this year and for what you’d have to pay for him in a trade right now. Go get him and Erasmo and enter the middle of that delicious Hispanic sandwich. He’ll help you now and later, like that crappy candy cheap people give away on Halloween.

Madison Bumgarner as suggested by @bkanexc (51.9, $17 ADP in 2013; slightly higher in 2014)

Bumgarner seems to have proven who he is — he’s been consistently around the same numbers for two-and-a-half years now. Fortunately for owners, who he is is a good pitcher.

Don’t ask my why the hell he takes the ball out of his glove so early:

courtesy of SB Nation

it’s gross looking and reminds me of my handicapped cousin Esther in our family whiffle ball game, but it obviously works. I wonder if Ted Williams would be able to see the grip in his hand. By the way, Upton definitely hit that ball 450 feet.

Superficially, Bum’s having his best year as a starter. A 3.05 ERA and sub-1 WHIP are filthy gross and uber sexy and, for the most part, are legit. Standard BAbip problem exists, though — Bumgarner, as a pitcher, is closer to what he was last year than what he is this year.

After a freakishly high .329 BAbip-against in 2011 and a low .280 BAbip-against in 2012, Bumgarner’s BAbip-against this year is at an unsustainably low .235. Matched with a high 24% line-drive rate, that BAbip-against is even shakier. His career H/9 is 8.2. This year? 6.2.

He’s young, a southpaw, relatively healthy, is a borderline #1 and stud #2, and he’ll remain that way. You’d pay out of your hopefully-introduced-to-Erasmo butt if you wanted to grab him before the deadline, and you paid quite a bit for him in the draft, but you’re paying for a consistent stud who performs across the board. He’s not quite this good, though he definitely has time to get better, so ask yourself if you want to pay that slight surplus for security — I would.

Gerrit Cole (Undrafted in 2013; mid-200s, $3 next year)

He’s not there yet and all of that stupid “oh my god he’s 4-0!” hype was stoopid. With an 82% contact rate, he’s not missing bats; with a 26% line-drive rate, he’s, well, giving up too many line-drives; with a 3.7% HR/FB, he’s getting pretty lucky. He’s been a strikeout guy and he will become a strikeout guy as he gets older, but, seriously, 13.3% K-rate so far? Like, that’s worse than Eric Stults. He won’t be much help for you down the stretch, and his stock will, compared to how frenetically and heedlessly everyone ran to their wire when he came up, be lower come the 2014 draft. He’ll be drafted next year, but I don’t expect much production.

Julio Teheran (217.1, $3 in 2013; could go as high as 140, $9 in 2014)

I’m buying. Don’t you love those wonderful thoughts you get when a former stud prospect finally begins to look like he knows what he’s doing? I’m sure Homer Bailey owners know what I’m talking about. Teheran, Baseball America’s #4 prospect pre-2012 and MLB.com’s #5 prospect that same year, deserves an excusal for stinking while being up too early last year and the year before. He’s not walking anyone and is throwing first-pitches for strikes 67% of the time en route to an acceptable 20.3% K rate. He’s a fly-ball guy and an 8.6% HR/FB rate is high but regular.

He instituted a slider this year—a pitch he never threw in 2011 or 2012—and he’s throwing it 20.9% of the time; batters are making less contact and, according to PITCHf/x Pitch Values, the new slider is his second-best pitch after his dirty fastball, which sounds like a good cocktail.

Drafters will love the strikeout potential next year and his “win potential” being on the Braves will increase his perceived value, too, so grab him now if possible. He’s finally here to stay.

Time for some Razzmirazz.

Follow Terse on Twitter @TerseRazzball, he needs distraction from the stupid Geico pig who gets pulled over during every MLB.tv commercial. He’ll also be doing a Reddit AMA with Tom Jacks on Tuesday, 7/16, at 7 pm.

 

  1. Brendan says:
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    Thanks for the shoutout! Excellent read as always! I grabbed Erasmo immediately once I saw Tehol’s tweet. Another suggestion might be Beachy! Good buy-low.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Brendan: hey man thanks! and no problem!

  2. Rodney says:
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    Brandon Phillips, Allen Craig and Alex Rios enough to get in return for Chris Davis? Keeper league.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Rodney: I’d say so

      • Rodney says:
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        @Terse: Thanks! Deal done. I don’t love it but it helps with some needs and I feel it preserves Chris Davis’ value, me getting 3 studs in return.

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @Rodney: Yep. Great depth you just got

  3. no mas pantalones says:
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    Not in a keeper league but having trouble with middle infield. Based on the 2013 ROS tool, I found several players that are available and compared them to those I have and this is what I found…
    utley (ss) – 4.6 (I own)
    dozier (2b,ss) – 4.0
    simmons (ss) – 3.2
    escobar (ss) – 2.4
    scutaro (2b,ss) – -2.7
    asdrubel (ss) – 2.3 (I own)
    aviles (2b,ss) – 1.4
    michael young (2B) – -4.6
    franklin (2b,ss) – -7.9 (I own)

    I own franklin, utley, and asdrubel…we have a 2b, ss and mi, so based on the projector should I move franklin and asdrubel for simmons and dozier ROS. Thank you very much for any advice you can give me…

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @no mas pantalones: No, you should keep all of the guys you have. Those are the 3 best

  4. Marti says:
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    Pick 6 keepers dynasty league..goes up by 2 rounds every year.

    Bumgarmer 8
    Strasburg 26
    E ramirez 31
    K Jansen 30
    M sano 31
    A Craig 21
    B Hamilton 14
    A rod 29
    I Desmond 15

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Jansen, Strasburg, Bum, Desmond, Erasmo, Craig…

      EDIT: Sorry, Terse, didn’t realize I was in your post and was on my phone…

      • Terse

        Terse says:
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        @Grey: NP grey

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Marti: Bum, Stras, Erasmo, Desmond, Craig, Jansen

  5. shibboleth says:
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    Thanks for this, Terse. I thought for sure my Gerrit Cole in the 29th round would make for an awesome keeper. Damn you, rookie nookie! Still, jumped on the Erasmo train, here’s hoping it delivers some upside.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @shibboleth: Here’s to Erasmo!

  6. Blue says:
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    12 Team 5×5, keep for one year. Who are my keepers?
    8 Zimmermann, Jordan
    11 Harvey, Matt
    12 Holland, Greg
    14 Cobb, Alex
    15 Hunter, Torii
    16 Miller, Shelby
    20 Lynn, Lance
    21 Carpenter, Matt

    • Blue says:
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      Number is round

      • Blue says:
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        Keep 3

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Blue: Harvey, Carpenter, Miller

      • Blue says:
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        Thanks

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @Blue: no problem

  7. Blue says:
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    Also, keep 3

  8. Jay

    jaywrong says:
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    That’s a lot of days with Grey. You might need therapy.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @jaywrong: any suggestions?

      • Jay

        jaywrong says:
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        @Terse: Constant masturbation.

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @jaywrong: already using that meditation technique

          • Terse

            Terse says:
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            @Terse: especially since I’m not giving it up to Erasmo anymore after this start

  9. Nathan says:
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    Ellsbury hits a HR off Erasmo in the 1st… hmmmmmmm

  10. uncdrew says:
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    Eras-blow taken yard by the first batter…

    I am already looking forward to Gray’s blurb tomorrow.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @uncdrew: Jacoby is my arch nemesis. I drafted him first-round last year and he dies, and now this?!

  11. uncdrew says:
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    He’s settling down, and the Mighty Mariners have given him 4 runs of early support. I’ve held Erasmo for a few weeks now, so am happily watching the game (*don’t tell my boss*).

    So Mr. Terse, I’m eager to hear your numbers for Erasmo next year. If Teahran is:

    $3 in 2013; could go as high as 140, $9 in 2014

    What are ridiculously early, wild thoughts on Erasmo?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @uncdrew: with multiple grains of coarse margarita salt, 120s, 9-10 buckers

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @uncdrew: and only true pros settle down like this

      • uncdrew says:
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        @Terse:

        *knock wood*

        Agreed. To play your first game in the bigs and give up an HR to the first batter, but then settle down… very good sign.

        *knock wood*

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @uncdrew: don’t forget he did pitch 59 innings last year

          • Terse

            Terse says:
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            @Terse: ERASMO?! WHAT’RE YOURE DOING?!!!!!!

          • uncdrew says:
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            @Terse:

            Really? Under the same name? ;)

            I had forgotten that.

            • Terse

              Terse says:
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              @uncdrew: Brock….Holt?….

              • uncdrew says:
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                @Terse:

                Hate him.

                • Terse

                  Terse says:
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                  @uncdrew: Oh………god…….

                  • uncdrew says:
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                    @Terse:

                    Stoopid fantasy baseball addiction.

                    • Terse

                      Terse says:
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                      @uncdrew: sew fokeeng stoopid

  12. Kobayashi Maru says:
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    Projected $ for Segura?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Kobayashi Maru: I think around $18 is where he’ll be valued

  13. Kobayashi Maru says:
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    I had Shelby, Gyroko, and Beachy at 1, 2, and 3$ respectively. I traded them all for Wright and Bumgarner and now I’m sad.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Kobayashi Maru: I’m not sure how much Wright and Bum are costing you, but don’t be sad about that trade.

  14. griff says:
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    In a dynasty roto, I have Martin Prado as a bench player…mostly for backup SS. I’m considering dropping him and picking up Brad Miller. Good move?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @griff: Nope

  15. Terse

    Terse says:
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    Nope

  16. It's A Trap! says:
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    Got offered Myers for Rivera in a 3-keeper league, 1 IF, OF, P, already own Stanton and Bautista. Keep Myers over one of those? Out of contention, so playing for next year. Thanks.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @It’s A Trap!: This is kind of a tough one, and I hate Stanton, but I guess you have to stick with him….. hold…

  17. griff says:
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    Uggh, BoSox tore me a new Erasmo in fantasy today.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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  18. Mike

    Mike says:
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    Thanks Terse! great post as always

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Mike: thanks a lot bud!

  19. ryanjoe13 says:
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    Why does everyone seem to hate Weaver on this site? He’s been stellar over his past 3 starts and he’s pretty consistent with K’s.

    I have Price, Bumgarner, Weaver, Kuroda at the top of my rotation. All this talk is making me nervous… Should I be looking to deal Weaver?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @ryanjoe13: the dip in velocity and K-rate are what’re annoying. that staff should be fine going forward, though. He’ll be steady

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @ryanjoe13: you know how the crowd is supposed to feel at the end of movies like revenge of the nerds? that’s how fantasy baseball nerds feel when people who play over their XFIP ‘s for like 4 or more years straight feel when pitchers start regressing to their supposed to numbers. See Matt Cain also.

  20. Doc Ellis D's says:
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    Hosmer, billy butler, rizzo ROS?

  21. Yeshcheese says:
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    12t toto 5×5 keep; Rank – Shelby, J Zimmerman, mad bum, erasmo, g cole, jofer, aroldis, straily

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Yeshcheese: Bum, Zimm, Jofer, Shelby, Erasmo, Aroldis, Straily, Cole

  22. malamoney

    malamoney says:
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    What player that will end this season in the minors do you will have the biggest impact next year. We can keep one minr leaguer as long as he ends the year in the minors. Sitting on Taveras and Springer right now.

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @malamoney: is that the edge from U2 or a biker goon?

      • Terse

        Terse says:
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        @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: Taveras could be up for the last few weeks, but him. Definitely him.

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @Terse: If he end the season in the majors, I can’t keep him. Dumb rule, but nonetheless the rule. I might grab Sano too., but he’s not looking so great right now…

            • Terse

              Terse says:
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              @Terse: this is a tough assessment at this point in the year, obviously. Maybe Yelich. Not producing enough to get brought up and will be 22 next year

  23. Bad Karma says:
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    One of my leagues I play in has a rule for keepers. No one drafted in the first 3 rounds can be kept and no one picked up through waivers after the all star break can be kept. That in mind who do you think will have the most impact among prospects/rookies next year that I should stash? Some still available choices are:
    Billy Hamilton
    Mike Zunino
    Zoilo Almonte
    Mike Olt
    George Springer
    Miguel Sano
    Bryan Buxton
    Gary Sanchez
    Nick Castellanos
    Xander Bogaerts
    I was thinking Bogaerts and/or Castellanos…?

    • Bad Karma says:
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      @Bad Karma:
      oh and
      Wheeler
      Cole
      Erasmo

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Bad Karma: Nailed it. Buxton and Sano further from joining the bigs

  24. Subs81 says:
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    J Johnson cole archer Cain in a 6×6 with k/9 as a category

    Can u rate these guys for the rest of the year. ??

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Subs81: johnson cole archer cain

      • Terse

        Terse says:
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        @Terse: oh k/9. johnson archer cole cain

  25. Subs81 says:
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    Should I drop walker for dozier in a 6×6 where OBP is the 6th category?

    AND SHOULD I Bid on green (oak) if u think he better than both in ’13

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Subs81: with Walker injured, yeah probably. I like Green better than both next year

  26. Tom Jacks

    Tom Jacks says:
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    Good stuff, Terse. I’m curious to hear your thoughts on Carlos Gomez as a keeper.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Tom Jacks: He’s legit, will be around where Jennings was valued going into this year because not everyone buys it

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
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        @Terse: Thanks! I agree that he’s legit and will be undervalued.

  27. Jay29 says:
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    “… a guy with a 0.78 GB/FB rate won’t always have a 5.6% HR/FB rate. When you allow that many fly-balls your HR/FB rate will graduate closer to 7% than 5.6%.”

    I’m pretty sure there’s no significant correlation between HR/FB and GB or FB rate. Most players will regress towards the ~10% mean, but other things do affect it, in a small way. The biggest factors are things like park factor (for HRs), fastball velocity, and O-contact% (i.e. if a pitcher gets players to expand the zone, fewer FBs leave the park).

    Plenty of players allow high FB rates with sub-10% HR/FB rates.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Jay29: Just saying that he’ll level off sooner than later. Also, zero pitchers since 1992 have thrown 100 innings—JFer is at 98.2—and had their HR/FB so low.

      • Jay29 says:
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        @Terse: Sure, nobody can sustain a 5.6% HR/FB in modern MLB, but don’t say it’ll rise because of his GB/FB ratio. It’s just because it’s an unsustainable number, like a .450 BABIP or 95% LOB rate, that will regress towards the mean.

        (Besides, I see J-Fer at 8.1% on FanGraphs. Where did you get your 5.6%?)

          • Jay29 says:
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            @Terse: Ah ok. I see B-Ref uses all balls in the air as the denominator (i.e. HR / (FB+LD) ) whereas FanGraphs uses only fly balls as the denominator (HR/FB). That leads to a league average HR/FB of 7.8% on B-Ref and 10.8% on FG this year.

            Would be nice for the sites to collaborate and agree on one usage like they did for replacement level this spring.

            • Terse

              Terse says:
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              @Jay29: I’ve always thought the same thing; 100% agree with ya there

  28. TobiasFunkeAnalRapist says:
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    Can only keep 5 and I know there’s about another halfish of a season left to play but who would you chose out of these bros: Dom Brown, McCutch, Trout, Segura, Goldschmidt, Harvey and Moore. I’m thinking about Harvey, Trout, Segura, Goldy and either Moore or McCutch, and trading either Dom Brown or whoever is left out between Moore and Cutch for Buxton (we have a minor league system).

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @TobiasFunkeAnalRapist: Hey T,

      Cutch, Trout, Segura, Goldy, Harvey. Trade Brown or Moore for Buxton, if the gy is willing to do that. those five are definitely the five you want to keep though.

      • TobiasFunkeAnalRapist says:
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        @Terse: Thanks T.

  29. Shake N Bacon says:
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    Terse I’m curious on your thoughts of my most recent keeper league trade. JB “Big Biscuit” gave me the confidence to go through with the trade. Although he is biased towards Milwaukee Brewers players.

    I give: J-Up & Billy Butler

    I get: Carlos Gomez & Anthony Rizzo

    You get to keep 6 players every year and you keep them for however long you want. Not cost or round value associated with your keepers.

    J-Up has been frustrating. I’ve owned him for 4 years now and I just don’t think he’ll pan out as a top ten player. I think he has the talent, but not the head for it.

    I’m really banking on Rizzo making huge strides next year and Gomez being legit. I do worry that Upton will turn back into the beast he was the first month of the season.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Shake N Bacon: I don’t think you can really go wrong with either side, but I’d probably have preferred the JUp/Butler side. Very, very close, of course, but I really like Butler. LIke him a lot more than Rizzo.

      side-not: why isn’t there any heat on the Braves hitting coach?

      Gomez is fo rizzle, though, so I think you’ll be happy.

      Sorry for the delayed response, shakerbaker.

  30. nightpandas says:
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    Terse,

    Been offered Lomo and Kemp & 4th pick for H Bailey and Segura and 8th pick. What do you think of swapping Segura for Kemp? no restrictions, keep forever. I am leaning towards it but different secondary players, I am out of it for this year, thinking about next, keep 9.

    Potential keepers:
    Zunino, Morales, Kinsler, Rendon, Segura, Braun, Dom Brown, Fowler, Choo, Rollins, Yelich
    Scherzer, H Bailey, Medlen, Wacha, Erasmo, Dickey

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @nightpandas: I’d sit tight on the trade.

      For the keepers: I’d keep segura, braun, brown, fowler, choo, yelich, bailey, scherzer, kinsler

  31. Jack Cecil says:
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    If you dump in a keeper league, what sort of death should the dumper be subjected to? Obviously long, violent, and excruciating are good adjectives to start with, but the Razzball community needs gruesome details, in post form.

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