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Welcome to week 12, please wipe your feet before you enter. For most leagues this week is the halfway point. Peripheral stats are darn near impossible to make up this late in the season, but the impossible is what fuels fantasy fires. Not the ones started by Drew Barrymore though. So if you’re in a keeper league now may be the perfect time to use strategy and build for tomorrow. Grab guys that may be expensive now but even more expensive next year. The best thing about fantasy is that there will usually be a next year, and what’s wrong with winning next year. Nothing! Sorry if I yelled that too loud. So follow me as we explore this weeks low end pitching options for fantasy baseball, enjoy. (Please keep in mind that match-ups and pitchers may change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/22
Nick Blackburn @Sf – Vogelsong
Joel Pineiro @ Fla – Hand
John Lanna vs. Sea – Bedard

6/23
Chris Capuano vs. Oak – Godfrey
Felipe Paulino vs. Ari – Hudson
Jason Marquis vs. Sea – Pineda

6/24
Carlos Carrasco @SF – Sanchez
Matt Harrison @NYM – Pelfrey
Tim Stauffer vs. Atl – Lowe

Carl Pavano (@SF vs. Bumgarner, @Mil vs. Narveson) Typical Snidely Whiplash. Throws a couple decent games in a row to gain our trust and then goes all Waco on your weekly peripherals. K’s are yuck and away ERA is double yuck.

Ivan Nova (@Cin vs. Cueto, Col vs. Nicasio) Still plays for the yanks, so he has that going for him. Road Era is a run lower. K/BB rate is muy mal. Revert back to first sentence for positive news.

Livan Hernandez (Sea vs. Fister, @CHW vs. Floyd) Comes off a complete game gem against the Cards. Home ERA is under a deuce. Recent quote from Jamie Moyer, “Man, he throws hard.”

Jeff Niemann (@Mil vs. Narveson, @Hou vs. Happ) Hopefully grandma’s ouchie cream and a popsicle made him feel better. Still a bottom of the rotation guy with minimal K potential.

Josh Outman (@NYM vs. Gee, @Phi vs. ?) Thanks to Cahill for falling on the grenade last week and moving up a day. Josh makes consecutive fantasy posts for the first time in….sorry had to look it up…forever.

Doug Fister (@Was vs. Hernandez, Fla vs. Sanchez) Pitching decent and falls into the Paul Maholm category of pitchers with mid 3 ERA’s with losing records. ERA half run better at home.

Charlie Morton (Bal vs. Arrieta, Bos vs. Beckett) Every time he pitches twice in a week I give him a new nickname, this week it’s “Pre Med.” Looks like Halladay without the degree. Still struggles against LH.

Derek Holland (Hou vs. Happ, NYM vs. Gee) xFIP of a run less than his ERA. Seems to be on a two good, one bad stretch. Home ERA isn’t very friendly. K-rate makes it a little more tolerable.

Chris Narveson (TB vs. Niemann, Min vs. Pavano) Discussed him before and he is just frustrating. Cruises through 4 innings than walks a couple and boom goes the dynamite. xFIP lower by a run. Decent K’s, good lineup, just pukes up too many leads.

Joe Saunders (@KC vs. Hochevar, @Det vs. Penny) Zona scores some runs, better ERA on the road and decent match-ups. Sounds like a delicious recipe for a buy low weekly add to me.

  1. BlinkULDHC says:
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    This is the absolute WORST single full-day line I’ve ever had (and ever seen) in fantasy baseball:

    2-for-40 (both singles), .050 batting average,.

    Arencibia
    Pujols
    Espinosa
    Hanley Ramirez
    Beltre
    Kemp
    McCutchen
    Bruce
    Stanton
    Morse
    ………. combined to make outs in 38 out of the 40 at-bats.

    A 2-for-10 day out of your lineup on a short-schedule day just sucks. 2-for-20 is just brutal and digs a huge hole. 2-for-30 pretty much loses the week for you. 2-for-40? I dropped from about .280 to .211, and this is Saturday of H2H/week.

  2. BMFs says:
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    I feel your pain.

    NL Only H2H I got No-Hit on Saturday the 14th of May, 2011.

    Iannetta
    Votto
    Kelly Johnson
    David Wright
    Hanley
    Bruce
    Ibanez
    Upton
    Carlos Pena

    0-25 EMBARRASSING!

    I did get 8 walks a SB, an RBI, and a Run.

  3. Bosmosis says:
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    That’s funny. I was 1 for 37. (Weiters, Votto, Beckham, Gordon, Hardy, McCutchen, Young, Pence, Morse). The crazy thing is I’m still up 7-2 in that H2H matchup.

    But that’s not what I came to ask. I need a UTIL bat for next week. I was thinking Giambi, as Colorado has 6 road games this week in interleague play. My question is, is he going to start enough games for it to be worthwhile starting him at my UTIL spot in a weekly league, or is it just too risky? How many games do you see him starting? Thanks!

  4. Tony says:
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    offense is down…. 2011 defly the yr of the pitcher.

  5. Eddy says:
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    It’s madness to start Dempster at home versus the Yankees, right?

  6. Exactly says:
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    I need to start someone else now that Marcum is up in the air, who do you prefer: Holland or Narveson?

  7. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Bosmosis: I see him getting teh DH start in 4 out fo the 6 games and prolly a pinch hit in there as well so figure 16-17 abs. As far as using him dont really know other options.

    @Eddy: two words: Doug Davis. Yankees always struggle against guys they dont see very often or for the first time.

    @Exactly: Based on this week’s schedule i’d go with Narvy, Hollands home ERA is scary.

  8. Chris says:
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    Better ROS option: Maholm or Carrasco?

  9. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Chris: Carrasco

  10. Dominic says:
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    yo, mat latos or tim hudson for the rest of the season?

  11. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Dominic: Latos,yo

  12. jeff says:
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    would you start cahill against the giants tomorrow?

  13. Paddyman says:
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    Ouch lost hommy tanson and marcum yesterday. Who could be a decent filler from these?
    Arrieta
    Correia
    Carlos Villanueva
    Fister
    wolf
    masterson
    I may have to pick 2. Which ones would be less of a headache?
    Thanks!

  14. MeanMachine says:
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    Volquez just had a clean first inning. OMG that is like a sign of the Apocalypse!

  15. BlinkULDHC says:
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    Try to guess who these three pitchers are:

    Pitcher A: 8 wins, 81 Ks, 3.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

    Pitcher B: 4 wins, 78 Ks, 3.55 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

    Pitcher C: 6 wins, 78 Ks, 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

    Answer: C.C. Sabathia, Scott Baker, Matt Cain

    It’s unreal that Scott Baker is available in like 60% of leagues, and he pitches at Petco Lite. I’m thankful that people still overpay for marquee names in starting pitching. My staff is Anibal Sanchez, Bud Norris, Erik Bedard, Scott Baker, James Shields and Jhoulys Chacin and it’s as good as any in my league.

  16. bubba says:
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    Hey would you start Gallardo @ Boston and Cahill @SF tomorrow in a 10 team roto league with a starts limit?

  17. BlinkULDHC says:
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    After today’s start, we’ll change the numbers:

    C.C. Sabathia: 8 wins, 81 Ks, 3.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
    Matt Cain: 6 wins, 78 Ks, 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
    Ricky Romero: 6 wins, 87 Ks, 3.01 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
    Yovani Gallardo: 8 wins, 84 Ks, 3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
    Jon Sanchez: 4 wins, 83 Ks, 3.46 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

    Scott Baker: 5 wins, 88 Ks, 3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

  18. kangaroo hops says:
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    @Tony: Year of the pitcher? I started Ogando, Cahill, and Billingsley this week, and lost Hanson to DL. My ERA is still over 7. Year of the belly-itcher, I say!

  19. kangaroo hops says:
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    @jeff: If its H2H, and you started him earlier this week, there probably isn’t any chance you’ll win ERA/WHIP, so you’ve got nothing to lose. If it’s roto, I’d sit him.

  20. knighttown says:
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    I like to use this weekly post to stream one or two sure things in my daily league. Last week it was Maholm. Please pick a few of your names from this list (in order) or some other typical 12 team waiver wire guys likeMaholm. Thanks!

  21. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @jeff: I’m not

    @Paddyman: Arreita and than Correia for match ups.

    @MeanMachine: True

    @BlinkULDHC: I just bought real cheap on Baker in one league.

    @bubba: Gallardo yes Cahill no.

    @knighttown: Narevson Saunders Fister

  22. Earl Battey says:
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    Hey Smokey,

    Would you go with Wandy vs TB or JZimm @ CWS?

    Thanks!

  23. Amart says:
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    Start Gallardo @Bos today?

  24. Peter Goetz says:
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    Related pitching question. Need some pitching after Hommy Tanson, Colon, and Harang all hit the DL. Just got offered Beckham and Oqando for my Ike Davis and Jokiam Soria. League format is 16 team 5×5 roto. I have plenty of MI’s and CI’s so I was thinking about trying to land another pitcher instead of Beckham, but the real question is whether or not Oqando is going to keep this up. Do I pull the trigger?

  25. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Earl Battey: Zimm

    @Amart: yup

    @Peter Goetz: Ogando is due to regress and did a little recently versus the yanks. But if your desperate for pitching i say do it.

  26. Earl Battey says:
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    Hey Smokey,

    I also have Gallardo facing off against Liriano next week. I was planning on starting Gallardo against Minnesota’s AA lineup and sitting Liriano because the Brewers hit pretty well at home.

    Then, Gallardo needed 93 pitches to get 9 outs against the Red Sox, and Liriano struck out 6 of the first 9 guys he faced (granted, they were Padres).

    Who gets the start next week?

    Thanks.

  27. Mr2Bits says:
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    Smokey : Would you pitch Collmenter today vs. CWS? I am down one QS but am leading WHIP by .10. Do I go for the kill and risk the WHIP for the tie in QS or take the guaranteed win on WHIP and concede QS

  28. Tony says:
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    is Heyward for Wandy too much? could I get Scherzer with heyward potentially? 12 teamer, h2h not a keeper.

    Are those decent targets or am I crazy?

  29. earl weaver says:
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    start holland with the 2 home starts v. andrew miller with 1 (maybe 2) favorable match-ups SD, @Pit? both could blow up, but could also work out, which one is worth the risk?

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