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This is more of a general fantasy baseball strategy post (and aimed for Roto more than H2H).  This is sort of a continuation of this morning’s roundup.  Well…  Of every roundup, really.  At least the thought process for why I’m writing it is in continuation.  Do you start or sit pitchers?  There isn’t an easy, broad answer to start every guy, so I understand the questions about starting certain guys.  You don’t want Wandy sitting on your team’s face right after he ate Mexican food.  But you also don’t want to start a guy for all his bad outings and sit him for the great ones.  In a lot of cases, it comes down to overthinking.  Listen, even your fearless leader sometimes overthinks his starts and misses a good one.  And some guys really are for just matchups.  You’re not starting Kevin Millwood every time out. (In some leagues, you’re never starting him.)  So rather than try to come up with some all encompassing rule that doesn’t really apply in every case, I’m going to show you by example.

In one fourteen team league, I have a pitching staff of K-Rod, Fuentes, F-Her, Filthy Sanchez, Oswalt, Burnett, Penny, Liriano, Billingsley, a since-dropped Buehrle and a DL’d Duchscherer.  Up until Tuesday, I’ve missed two starts on purpose this year.  In my infinite wisdom, I sat Liriano vs. the Sawx and Yanks, missing out on 13 IP, 3 ER and 15 Ks.  Strategy moves that were to my detriment.  I did sit Burnett vs. the Rays last night, which worked out for me, but that was more of a case that I’m over my innings limit than my fear of Burnett.  So out of 14 points in each Ks, WHIP and ERA, I have a 14, 8 and 11, respectively.  (BTW, I also have terrible stats from Juan Gutierrez, Joel Hanarahanananan and Ryan Madson.)  Not one spot start, only three benchings.

Sober people don’t bet on baseball for one simple reason.  In the short term, from start to start, no one really has any idea what anyone’s going to do.  In the big picture, it’s another thing.  But the big picture only works if you start your guys so you get their cumulative stats.  Now, of course, if you’re in a ten team league, certain matchups become less startable than 12 team leagues. Then certain matchups in 15 team leagues, you wouldn’t dream of in 12 team leagues.  So when you ask me in the comments or our fantasy baseball forums about starting a guy, the most important thing is your league depth.  Otherwise, I assume 12 team or I’ll say something vague like, “(That start) could work out for you.”  Okay, so who’s starting F-Her next time out?  No way!!!

From Around The Web

  1. bostonaccent says:
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    Thanks, now I feel better about starting Hanson today.

    Damn it, no I don’t. But thanks anyway.

  2. Mike D. says:
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    @Grey: My F-Her deal has changed… Now looking at:

    Giving up: F-Her, Jose Guillen, Papi, Slowey

    Getting back: Cecil, Cano, Vlad, J. Vazquez

    Am I giving up too much? I’m a Sox fan and love Papi, I didn’t drop him when times were tough (emoticon).

    Mike D.

  3. Russ says:
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    Tommy Hanson go boom boom!

  4. Tony says:
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    Guess who threw Leake today, started votto and benched BRUCE, this guy….. GO REDS.

  5. William says:
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    @Grey – Have I asked enough questions that you already know I play in a 12 team H2H League?

  6. Harry Plopper says:
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    Haha i felt like that article was aimed at me because i keep asking who to start or sit. I know to take any advice with a grain of salt. Thats why i was never mad when you suggested i sit Dice-K vs the Blue Js and he ended up throwing 7 scoreless innings.

    What the hell happened to hanson? 8 earned runs! and to think i was worried about Matusz killing my ERA today. Well now i have to start him because there is NO way he could be THAT bad.

  7. bravo says:
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    how does this trade look:

    my adam dunn for his denard span

    seems like most people in my roto league don’t want dunn’s low average. i’m good on hr and lack sb and avg so that’s why i’m trying to move dunn for somebody. good trade or should i try to trade for someone else? if not a good trade, any ideas on which type of guys would be good to trade for?

  8. Ron Washington's Stache says:
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    @Grey: I should have mentioned that I play in a H2H league with a cap on roster moves (75), so riding the hot hand isn’t necessarily the best strategy cause I like to save as many moves as possible for the playoffs.
    I guess I’m wondering if this changes your answer to my earlier question (which was essentially “Pick 1- Freese, H. Matsui, McLouth, J. Rivera, Rajai”).

  9. Dad says:
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    @Grey: You ever sit closers w/ jobs? I went the SAGNOF route and have B Wilson, Dotel, Hoffman & Wood. Not bad for a 16-teamer, but the last 3 are killing my perif’s.

    16-team H2H, 8×6 (6 pitching cats): Hanley vs. Halladay+Bourn

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Dad: Depends on the situation, I’d sit Wood and Hoffman. I’d take Hanley.

  11. Aramuseless Ramirez is “dealing with a sore left thumb” and is out of the lineup today. Amazing that that chubby little digit could be hurt while its been stuck up his rectal cavity for most of this early season. I know Grey, we were warned.

  12. dingers says:
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    Adam LaRoche (> ,< ,or =) Corey Hart
    Thanx Grey!

  13. johnson21 says:
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    13 team league…. start liriano tonight??

  14. mauledbypandas says:
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    @Harry Plopper: the Rangers have a way of making good pitchers look bad, and bad pitchers look great. Might as well roll the dice tonight I say.

  15. Mike D. says:
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    @Grey:

    Pick one for rest of season, 5×5 roto: B. Abreu, Hunter, Choo.

    Pre-season, I’d have picked Choo, but that CLE offense looks scarzy bad now.

    Thanks G,
    Mike D.

  16. FYI, Rios also out of the lineup tonight. & on a much more pleasant note, would you give up Freese (who you seem to be somewhat fond of) and Slowey (who you used to be fond of) for Dunn? Fair value?

  17. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    Casey Blake’s batting avg. splits the past 3 seasons:
    April – .226
    May – .303
    June – .300
    July – .289
    He has 6 hits and 2 homers in his past 2 games.

    I have Freese and I like him but he is a rookie so who knows what you’re gonna get. Blake is 36 years old, but would you drop Freese for him and expect a solid rest of May and June/July?

  18. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: so you’re saying sit Shields tonight against the old and crippled Yanks? Is this because you think he’s a ticking time bomb or because you still hold a grudge for him previously shatting upon you? I’ve been pretty impressed with him this year, after I begrudgingly drafted him, and his only not great start that I can clearly remember is his loss against Oak and the perfect Braden. I’ve got him starting in an 8 Teamer, H2H, and now you’ve got me thinking I must be a few bricks short of a load.

    Oh, and side note…thanks Hanson for shizzing the bed and giving me a nice cushy lead in ERA and WHIP in my 16 Teamer!!

  19. Back to Minors says:
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    @johnson21: I’d start him (and I am). as a Sox fan, they typically dont’ do well against lefties. Big Papi is out. Scutaro is out with an elbow. Bill Hall is in. It’ll be a good start.

  20. Bless Your Hart says:
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    Changed my handle since you mention this guy in every other post – !

    Grey, how long can Vlad keep this up? If he keeps this up for 140 games, we are looking at a line like this:

    84/28/120/14/.340

    Where would you take a haircut from that line, and why?

    Thanks.

  21. Back to Minors says:
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    what a frustration in Grady. they say he’s out with a bruise knee and don’t rule our surgery…surgery on what? his bruise? wth…

  22. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    Please rank: Ely, Kennedy, Leake

    Does it just depend on their matchups?

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @zombie: I’d want Dunn.

    @Kent Bottenfield: Eh, you know what you’re getting with Blake, but Freese coudl give you more or about the same. I’d want Freese.

    @Wilsonian: Ha, nice. I tend to bench everyone but front tier starters vs. the Yanks and Sawx at home.

    @Bless Your Hart: He’s probably not stealing that many bases. No reason why he can’t keep it up otherwise, if he stays healthy, which is no sure thing for him.

    @Back to Minors: Ha

  24. Ron Washington's Stache says:
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    @Grey: I paraphrased the earlier question in my last comment…“Pick 1- Freese, H. Matsui, McLouth, J. Rivera, Rajai.
    In the future, I’ll stick to generic questions, rather than involving the specifics of my league. I realize that it must be annoying trying to deal with the specs of everyone’s league.

  25. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    Good point on the upside. Thanks!

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Ron Washington’s Stache: League specifics are fine, it’s just when someone says, “Hey, you remember my old question, here’s an addition on it,” is when it gets confusing. I don’t remember your old questions usually.

  27. crews says:
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    @Grey: Awesome primer. Thanks. Especially for pointing out all leagues are not created equal, because some of the questions make me scratch my head too.
    Also, big ups for supporting the Synergy idea.
    One last thing: Mike Aviles is even more yawnstipating when you see his OBP is also .390.

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @crews: No problem. Ha, yeah, he’s very yawnstipating.

  29. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    If Contreras blows this save he best pick up the W

  30. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    (sorry for so many comments, I’m a lonely soul) I won’t be by a computer this weekend and I’m wondering if I should start/bench Wandy against the Rays on Saturday. “Bench” in bold, caps, underlined, and italicized? Oh, it’s a 10-team H2H league that counts losses along with the other 5 standard categories.

  31. Dingo says:
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    @Kent Bottenfield: I’m confused — CBSsports.com shows that the game is over and Contreras got the save, but mlb.com and yahoo haven’t updated since the Castro strikeout. Anyone know what’s up?

  32. shmorgie s. board says:
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    Evan Meek or Aaron Heilman?

  33. mauledbypandas says:
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    @Dingo: game is over, Contreras got the save. I watched it on MLB.tv, so unless this is the biggest conspiracy since JFK… woohoo saves from the SP slot!

  34. Bring Back Pluto says:
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    @Dingo: they are filming two endings; one for the new Will Ferrell movie, and one to be played on mlb.com.

    Sad for Contreras owners, the mlb version is not pretty. Stay tuned!

  35. shmorgie s. board says:
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    @Grey: Duh, I also have Uehara. Drop him or Meek? Sorry to double-dip!

    Which reminds me Mister Softee is parked on the corner where I work, brb!

  36. Fletch says:
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    @ Grey – Marlon Byrd or CarGo for the rest of the year?
    Also – Please rank…Garland, Pavano, Fister, Wells, Pineiro, Slowey.

  37. Mike D. says:
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    @Grey: Last post of the day, I promise…

    Vladdy or Hunter?

    Callaspo or Bartlett?

    Bartlett’s 2010 numbers look pretty close to his pre-2009 numbers – 2009 looks like an outlier now, right?

    Meanwhile, Callaspo just keeps hitting. He posted a .156 ISO last yr and this season it is up to .193. His HR/FB was only 5.0% last yr, while in 2010 it is league avg. at 9.7%. Could we be looking at a breakout .300/20/75/75/5 from this guy?

    Mike D.

  38. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Grey: I’d like to thank my players Soto and A-Ram for making the last two outs so my boy Jose C could get the save.

    Thanks, boys!

    Great post, btw. My philosophy is, in 12-team or shallower, in 99% of the cases, if you don’t trust someone every time out, don’t own him. (Or her — hey, it could happen!*)

    *Not really

    **Though I’d love to see a female goalie in the NHL

    ***David Stern once said he thought a female point guard could play in the NBA. Someone else said, “There is one — JJ Redick.”

  39. dean says:
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    I guess I’m probably missing some sarcasm but are you saying that you wouldnt start felix at safeco v. the pads?

  40. @Grey: Nice piece. The depth definitely has a lot to do with my starting Kazmir against Texas the other night. That was in a 15 teamer where I’ve had excellent pitching so far – partially because I might have started Kazmir only one other time.

    How do you like that Braves win? Nix had it in his glove. As Dana Carvey as Johnny Carson would say, “weird, wild stuff.” Glad my opponent had McLouth on the bench.

  41. Dan says:
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    Should I drop Adam Jones, Pence or Boesch for Quentin? Or hold tight?

  42. Ron Washington's Stache says:
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    @Grey: Again, I provided the question on my follow-up comment. Not sure how you missed it, but no worries.

  43. PepeSilvia says:
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    drop Nyjer Morgan or Kubel for Ibanez?

    drop Napoli for Cervelli?

  44. shmorgie s. board says:
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    @Grey: There goes my “And the Meek Shall Inherit the Pirates’ Closing Job” future blog post.

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @PepeSilvia: Kubel for Ibanez, I’d want Ibanez. I’d keep Napoli.

    @shmorgie s. board: Could still happen, but now it’ll burn a bit.

  46. The Fake Joe Rogan says:
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    Which side of this potential trade?

    F-Her, Kershaw, and Sparkakis OR Verlander, Jered Weaver, and Reyes

  47. Dingo says:
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    @mauledbypandas: I wouldn’t dismiss the conspiracy angle. After all – it’s the perfect setup. Who would suspect the 60-year-old Cuban?

  48. Wilsonian says:
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    Are you kidding with that end of the Braves/Reds game?! I didn’t see it, but the Reds ‘pen saved my opponent the L after 8 earned in 1.2 innings. That’s absolutely ridiculous…I’m pissed, yet I really wish I wasn’t “working” so I could’ve watched that.

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wilsonian: Try to find time to watch the end of the game. It’s bonkers.

  50. Elephant says:
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    Who would you rather trade (away) at this point, the struggling Jason Bay or the solid upside of Jay Bruce?

  51. Peter Francis Geraci says:
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    In a keeper league in which I’ve got Miguel Cabrera at 1B, I’ve been offered Justin Upton for Mark Teixeira (my Util hitter). Do I take Upton’s hypey upside and hope he doesn’t turn into his brother or ride out Tex’s safe and consistant productivity?

  52. crews says:
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    Really? Brooks Conrad?

  53. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Peter Francis Geraci: Kinda depends on the rest of your OF and if you need Upton, but in a keeper, I’d probably go with Upton. Plus, it helps to free up a UTIL spot.

  54. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @crews: Did you see it? Best home run trot ever.

  55. Doug Ault says:
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    @Grey: I was prepared to sit Burnett last night, but then I saw his lifetime 2.37 era against the Rays……..grrrrrrrr

  56. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Sick of Branyan yet? I’m being serious.

  57. Ryan Beariot says:
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    Grey, 14 team league, I was just offered Ian Stewart for J-Roll. I have Alex Gonzales, but accepting this trade is a bad idea, right? I’m not just crazy?

  58. crews says:
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    @Grey: Well worth the price of admission…

  59. mauledbypandas says:
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    @Dingo: I had this funny retort written up about Contreras and the Bay of Pigs II, and something about the government when the site stopped working for me… I smell a conspiracy. Where is Mel Gibson when you need him?

  60. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, was just writing that in the tonight’s roundup. Doode sucks.

    @Ryan Beariot: I’d want Rollins.

  61. Peter Francis Geraci says:
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    My outfield consists of A.Lind/A.McCutchen/C.Granderson/J.Borbon and I’ve also got P.Sandoval who may one day end up as a 1B, thus leaving me with a glut (literally, in Sandoval’s case) of 1B in a year or two. I guess, technically, I don’t need Upton but he could surely help. I’m just worried that the price tag might be too high.

  62. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: 10 tm keeper. Do I pickup Ian Kennedy?

    I’d have to drop Vazquez, Baker, Wilson, or Wells?

    Rest of staff is Nolasco, Kershaw, + Filthy Sanchez.

    My pitching stats are terrible.

  63. artie says:
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    So Lind is now batting .227 and it is May 20th.

    At what point to you lump him in the same category as say… Beckham.

  64. Ryan Beariot says:
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    Thanks! I knew I was crazy for even semi-considering it.

  65. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, that was great. It almost failed to be a HR trot- dude seemed to start to run to the dugout! I have a feeling that this hasn’t happened to him before.

  66. Jeff says:
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    Who for my utility spot, Gabby or OCab? What can we expect from each going forward?

  67. GTS says:
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    Drop Headley or Krispie for Bautista?

  68. crews says:
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    @royce!: Conrad was trying to outrun Nix taking one more look in his glove and seeing that he had actually caught the ball.
    This will be on ESPN for a while…

  69. crews says:
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    @Grey: Does Nix get one of them there “Outfield Assists” I see in the box score once in a while?

  70. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @timSTi: Lose Vazquez after the Mets game if he’s terrible again.

    @artie: They’re not similar players.

    @royce!: I got a real kick out of it. < --sincere

    @Jeff: Gabby

    @GTS: Can lose Krispie for him.

  71. artie says:
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    @Grey:
    I know they’re not similar players… I meant the idea of potentially “not turning it around”

  72. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @artie: Apples and oranges. Beckham is a 18/14 guy that easily becomes 10/7 and death. Lind’s a 35 homer guy. That doesn’t evaporate without hiding an injury. Lind’s not a batting title guy though so he could hit .250 and 30 homers.

  73. crews says:
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    I have to get a picture of Brooks Conrad and Jason Heyward together…looks oddly like Mr. Roarke and Tattoo.

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @crews: And Mickey Rourke has tattoos, so there’s that. Wait, what?

  75. artie says:
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    Good point(s).
    The strikeouts are becoming worrisome. 110 last year. 46 already. However, career .280 hitter.

  76. Mike D. says:
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    @Grey: I lied. Here’s another Q on my never-ending deals today.

    5×5 roto-

    Slowey/Big Papi for Cecil/Vlad. Which side you taking?

    Thanks Grey.

    Mike D.

  77. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @artie: Yeah, .280 becomes .250 or .300 with the slightest change in luck.

    @Mike D.: Vlad’s side.

  78. Steve says:
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    @Grey: My sister is in my H2H league and has just been offered AJ for Holliday, which is obviously a nonsense. How about Soriano for AJ?

  79. artie says:
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    @Grey:
    Word.

  80. Steve says:
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    @Steve: Sorry, some context – she has plenty of OF depth, and Wainwright and Nolasco but not much else SP-wise.

  81. crews says:
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    Ah, pop culture and baseball…great tastes that go great together.

  82. crews says:
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    @Grey: And is what Tommy Hanson got today “reverse-Greinke’d?”

  83. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I’d try and get something cheaper, like a closer for a Jaime Garcia-type.

    @crews: Ha!

  84. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Ha! She auto-drafted and doesn’t have any!

  85. WBC says:
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    Pedro Alvarez. Do you still expect him to make a big impact this season around mid-June? He’s not hitting well against lefties and the Pirates say they aren’t going to rush him, but come on: Aki Iwamura, Andy LaRoche, Jeff Clement?

  86. Erock says:
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    Hey guys — Need some trade advice. Kendry/Zimmerman for Votto/CarGo/Stewart?

    Thank you!

  87. crews says:
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    “Anti-Greinke’d?”
    “Un-Greinke’d?”
    “Dis-Greinke’d?”
    “Out of Greinkica?”
    I have Greinke in a league but no Hansons (AKA “None of Your Hansons Belong to Us”) in any leagues…am I doomed?

  88. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Oh, yikes. Then that Soriano trade is fine.

    @WBC: I don’t expect him to have a huge impact this year. Might not even see him until September.

    @Erock: I’d want Votto’s side, it’s fair though.

    @crews: Hmm…Don’t think it’s there.

  89. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Liriano and Strasburg for Soriano or Rios?

  90. crews says:
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    @Grey: Good thing I have a day job then. Speaking of which…peace.

  91. danimal35 says:
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    I’ve got Branyan at 1B and Smoak in one of my 4 UTIL spots…obviously you are sick of Branyan but I only have Smoak to replace him with soooo…

    These guys are available or have been dropped recently and are on waivers (H2H):

    Krispie (W)
    Gaby (FA)
    Aubrey (W)
    FraGu (W)
    CamMay (FA)

    So slim pickins…what would you do with those two spots?…I’m thinking drop Branyan for Maybin and slip Smoak into 1B for now? I dunno, my team is hurting on the offensive side and pitching is keeping me in it but barely

  92. genghis chone says:
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    Wells or Ely?

  93. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Soriano

    @crews: Ha

    @danimal35: Sure, grab Maybin, but I’d grab FraGu eventually.

    @genghis chone: Wells…

    ***I just grabbed Frasor in all of my leagues.

  94. barker says:
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    Jhoulys chacin for bard

    20 team league k/9 sv% bsv hld are cats

    which side would u want grey

  95. @Grey: As a Gregg owner in a H2H keeper league, where I don’t have the luxury of dropping anyone to chase saves, how do all you smart expert types always have these free roster spots open to speculate on saves? Who are you dropping in return?

    I’d rather speculate on Carlos Santana or be able to fill a bat in for one of my DTD guys, than possibly lose a category in hope that I have another middling closer in case the one I already have fails. If I had the space, I’d take Frasor, but I’ve got bigger fish to fry.

    In my 15 teamer with 9 pitching slots, Frasor has been rostered since draft day as a lot of the set up guys are.

    Seriously. I’m not being a smart ass. I always wonder this when writers say to get marginally useful reliever X to fill in for guy who falls.

  96. bodymore says:
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    Ugly ugly line by Gregg…

    been considering this one and wondering what you think: drop Rajai for C Patterson?

  97. Child Please says:
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    Which side would you rather have??
    A: Kemp, Chipper, Ike Davis, Latos
    B: Phillips, Pena, A-ram, Greinke

  98. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @3FingersBrown: That’s why we’re experts! Kidding. I usually have a MR that I can lose, this time it was Saito in multiple leagues.

    @bodymore: I wouldn’t.

    @Child Please: Nice username. B side.

  99. Anyone who rostered Juan Guiterrez deserved everything they got. Ditto for Aaron “Meltdown” Heilman. (Future warning, don’t whine when he burns you or I will mock your ass til kingdom come.)

  100. Sos says:
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    Pick one weekend start:

    Ely, Morrow, or Slowey?

  101. mauledbypandas says:
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    @Sos: I’m going with Ely.. though I know he is due for a meltdown at some point

  102. Carl Spackler says:
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    Lost Either and Sizemore this week in b2b days. 10 team h2h 5×5. This leaves me with a patchwork OF made up of Pacman, Carlos Q, Bruce, Gardner……kill me

    Who do you like to fill in for a while? Venable, Hart, Jose Gullien, Boesch

  103. Donnie Baseball says:
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    Rosenthal reporting that Rockies are interested in Luis Castillo.

    Why? I guess they really don’t beleive EY jr. is going to be an option at 2nd.

  104. agarthered says:
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    I currently own Alexei, since owning him he is 0-8, would you drop him and pick up bartlett, or sit tight?

  105. Carl Spackler says:
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    would you rank Luke Scott over Hart?

  106. I Am the Liquor says:
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    Price/Maybin or Holliday/FraGu?

  107. slinky says:
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    @grey: i’m -13 off my pitching starts, when do i start worrying i’m not gonna get enough starts? 5 of us in my league are right where I am and one guy has only 40 starts….. i’m on pace for 167?

  108. sean says:
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    And Villanueva is in for the MIL save sitch

  109. sean says:
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    And he promptly plunks Doumit in the neck to put the tying run aboard

  110. MeanMachine says:
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    The 2 pitchers my gut said to sit but i started anyways, cause my gut is full of shit so i don’t trust it, was Matusz and Liriano. I own them on multiple teams so that one really hurt. Has any pitcher had a harder schedule than Matusz? 2 against TB and NY, MIN, and now @TEX. I only started his because my brain told me he handled TB and NY so he can handle TEX. Apparently i have shit for brians also! Grey is right, trying to second guess your starters is fools play but after tonight everyone sits @TEX.

  111. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Carl Spackler: For the next week or so, sure.

    @I Am the Liquor: Holliday side.

    @slinky: I wouldn’t worry about it now. You still have four months of the season to pickup an extra starter if you see one.

    @sean: Nice! That’ll teach him.

    @MeanMachine: Ha… Yeah, anyone on the Orioles is going to have awful matchups.

  112. Iceman says:
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    12 team, H2H, keeper league. Should I still own any of the following on a regular basis (i.e., not picking up/dropping):

    Edwin Jackson
    Frank Francisco
    Chad Qualls
    Johnny Cueto
    Kevin Slowey

    There are pitchers to stream/relievers who get holds who could help me I guess.

    As thanks, new team name: Latos Intolerant

  113. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Iceman: Hold Jackson, Qualls and Cueto…

  114. Iceman says:
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    @Grey

    thanks!

    also– Snooki v JWoww: the Ginger/Mary Ann of our generation?

  115. mr baseball says:
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    Ubaldo Jimenez left Thursday’s game with a left hamstring injury.

    Jimenez had thrown 92 pitches, so he was about down anyway. The injury is not thought to be serious and he should be fine for his next scheduled start. He allowed only one hit over seven innings, fanning four.

  116. Q says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Question–12 team roto league. I have great pitching, avg offense. Mediocre saves with Fuentes and Franklin and a DL’d Street. I’m thinking about trading Carlos Pena–do you think he’s done? What do you think I could reasonably get for him?

    Thanks

  117. mookiewilson says:
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    Owning Oswalt. So frustrating. Run support in his 6 losses=6 runs! Wow.

  118. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Iceman: The Situation? The Professor?

    @mr baseball: I wish it was serious since I don’t own him.

    @Q: Pena just hit two homers tonight didn’t he? You should get at least two closer for him if saves are what you covet… Yes, that sounded like Yoda.

  119. Professor Chaos says:
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    Howard, Pedroia, Verlander for Pujols, Stewart, and Hamels? I have Pujols and I’m trying to shake it up. Asking too much with that?

  120. @Grey: Ha i knew it. You guys got an extra roster spot for being so dang smart! I try to carry 4 RP’s, but I haven’t had the luxury yet. I actually drafted Saito as well, but dumped him when Gregg took the BJ job.

    With Gregg, Fuentes and Rausch, my pen walks a fine line between useful and awful. Mind you this is a league that uses separate (5)SP and (3) RP slots. If I was just using P slots, I’d have another reliever.

  121. How crap a clutch 2 RBI hit for Gordan Beckham! Dogs and cats living together! To bad he’s riding my bench.

  122. Steve says:
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    I’m glad I don’t REALLY, REALLY need an Erv-San win, but this is pretty annoying nonetheless.

  123. cubbies299 says:
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    Torii Hunter/Johan or BJ Upton/Beckett/Qualls

  124. Kazmere says:
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    Talk about second guessing and it’s not even Friday yet. Just picked up Starlin (@TEX) to play over Reyes (NYY) for the next few days– and of course Reyes is actually useful tonight (2 for 5 , 1R, 1RBI). Tomorrow, Starlin vs Colby Lewis, Reyes vs *Javier Vasquez*.

    WWGD? (G=Grey)

  125. dsimon says:
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    So my Felix for Reynolds will not happen. Reynolds owner uses him at 1B and I am not willing to throw him Teixeira or Smoak in a 12 team league where we keep 20 guys.

    SHIT.

    So, the beers convince me I should offer Felix for Shin Soo Choo and Gregg.

    We count 5×5 + 2B,3B,OBP,SLG. Choo seems to be a multi cat star…
    I could also do Greinke, Verlander or CC, but Felix seems like the best bet.

  126. dsimon says:
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    Well, and its fair to mention we count holds, CG, QS, and L.

  127. Anyone watching the O’s vs. Tex game? What happened to Wieters? Why was he PH for?

  128. mr baseball says:
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    Corey Hart or Adam Jones

  129. mr baseball says:
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    @mr baseball: I wish it was serious since I don’t own him. – Ubaldo Jimenez

    and according to your drafting rules YOU WILL NEVER OWN HIM GREY

    he will be drafted too high for you next year

  130. struggler says:
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    There’s a whole lotta scary saves on waivers. Can you rank please?
    Lidge, Corpas, Gonzo, Hoff, Wood, Perez

  131. Belated HR Mini Donkey. 5 HR day for my HtH team after a long dry stretch…soo streaky.

  132. 17/41 14 runs 5 HR 37 Total Bases 17 RBI 2 SB 1.369 OPS. Hurrah!

  133. GopherDay says:
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    @mookiewilson: Coming from an AVID ‘Stros fan….I hope he gets traded to a contender. Both for his sake and the Astros sake. I would love to see Roy O in the world series, and at the same time I would like to see the Astros farm have some new talent in it!

  134. Steve says:
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    Tomorrow in my H2H 14-teamer I got:

    Penny v Angels
    Hamels v Sawx
    Hudson @ Pirates
    Garza @ Astros

    to choose from.

    I’m level in Ks, up 6-2 in Wins and decent leads in ERA and WHIP.

    Start ‘em all? Or sit Hamels maybe?

  135. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Professor Chaos: It’s fine for you.

    @3FingersBrown: ‘Perts get an extra roster spot, something we don’t tell you.

    @cubbies299: I’d take the Johan side.

    @Kazmere: I’d just play Reyes. Not a big fan of sitting my stars.

    @dsimon: It’s fine for you.

    @3FingersBrown: Was watching Top Chef Masters, sorry.

    @mr baseball: Jones

    @mr baseball: True

    @struggler: Corpas, Wood…

    @Elijah: Wow, nice day. Don’t think I’ve had a day that nice all year.

    @Steve: Ha!

    @Steve: Sit Penny and Hamels.

  136. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Thanks! Last one for the night – you trust Ely against the Tigers on Saturday?

    Or do you prefer Richard in Seattle?

  137. tHe ShiT says:
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    @Grey: Start Bills vs Tigers 2moro? Im startin Garza also. N throwin Gallardo on Sat. Need 10 more IP

  138. Rico says:
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    Just wanted to chime in on the starting pitcher matchups thing, as I’ve done a lot of data research into it lately. I’ve looked through some pitchers with large samples, such as Randy Johnson, Clemens, Mussina, etc. I use the Yanks as a good litmus test, as their offense has tended to be good to great over the past 20 years. In almost every pitchers case, you’ll see a huge jump in ERA/WHIP vs the Yanks, and often vs other historically good offenses like Bos, Anaheim, and Tex. In the case of almost all of these great pitchers, the jump vs elite hitting teams makes them borderline non-startable. Take Randy, he’s a 1.50 career whip vs NYY over a ton of innings. Lots of the other guys go from career 1.15-1.2 whips up to the 1.3-1.35 range vs good offenses. You can figure out whether a 1.3 whip is valuable to your team or not based on your setup, but I think a strong case can be made to avoid matchups with the elite offenses. For this season, I’d say it’s safe to avoid NYY, TB, Phl, and Tex especially @ Arlington. You can make a case for some other teams at your discretion. Another factor that helps the case is that it’s much more focused than career splits would indicate. What I mean is that while perhaps the Yanks offense wasn’t good for a few seasons in there, it’s plainly obvious whether teams have good offenses for this season. So it’s possible that the difference between a 1.2 whip pitcher vs good offenses is even more pronounced in years like this one where it’s obvious the Yanks offense is to be avoided. So Randy Johnson might have been a 1.50 whip pitcher vs the Yanks, but that could include seasons where the Yanks weren’t stacked, or when they had their best hitters out of the lineup or injured. He could have been a 1.6 whip pitcher vs great offensive lineups.

    So if you do have elite pitchers, they probably should start every week. And that’s a league depth clarification, in some leagues Burnett is a depth pitcher, in others he’s a frontline starter. Guys like Verlander and Garza probably need to be always started regardless of matchups, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were only passable 1.30 whip types vs elite offenses. But we all have plenty of pitchers who would benefit greatly from avoiding the elite offenses. Ervin is a good example from my team. He’s not seeing the Yanks, Tex, TB, or Phl if they interleague. But when he plays a Sea, Oak, or KC, he’s going in. Sure there’s some variance in there, but it’s all about making the best short term decision and letting the long term even out. I started Weaver vs TB reluctantly, he had a gem (helps to wild pitch some unearned runs in). But he got rocked vs Tex.

    I’d say the best strategy is to figure out who your 2nd teir of SPs includes, and then start or bench with emphasis on avoiding elite hitting teams.

  139. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Richard over Ely

    @tHe ShiT: I’d start Bills tomorrow.

    @Rico: Great comment, thanks for that! I agree with you as you’ll see from the comments and the post, I tend to avoid the Yankees, Boston (avoided Liriano tonight) and Texas with most pitchers below the top tier ones. Phillies at home scares me and Tampa’s hit or miss, depending on how well pitchers have been pitching going into the matchup.

  140. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    @Steve: Don’t sit Penny. I’m a big Cards fan and I’ll be at the game tomorrow for my birthday. He wouldn’t shit all over my birthday festivities. I predict a 6 2/3, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks, and of course, a nice little W for Penny. For me? About $60 poorer and 8 times less sober. Bench me, not him.

  141. @Grey: Would you take either of the following? Standard 5 + QS: Edwin Jackson against The Jays, Jason Hammel vs. KC, I’d be dropping Correia and I think someone will pick him up off of waivers.

    I’m down 2 W’s, 2 QS and 15K. I have 5 starts left this week, he has 2.

    I originally drafted Hammel but dumped him when he got hurt. Like his peripherals and think he can be good going forward.

  142. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @3FingersBrown: I wouldn’t start either of them. I’d want Correia over Hammel. I think Correia’s home starts alone make him more enticing.

  143. @Grey: Interesting. I’ll keep that in mind. Before tonight, he had the best xFIP of the 3 by almost a half run over Hammel.

  144. Eddy says:
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    Roll with Hamels vs. Bos tomorrow?

  145. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    Thanks Grey! On a side note… when Corey Hart isn’t busy being a popular topic of conversation on razzball, does he play the Geico caveman?

  146. DrEasy says:
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    A guy made Hanley available (I think he’s happy with his Sterlin Castro pick up). He needs pitching and saves. Is an offer of Hughes + Tejada + Brain Freeze fair?

  147. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    @DrEasy: I know you’re not asking me, but if I had Hanley on the block I’d want more But, hey, if you can get him to dig that good for you.

  148. DrEasy says:
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    @Kent Bottenfield: Yeah I don’t want to lowball him (I hate it when people do that), but of course I don’t want to give up too much either. Ideally, I’m looking for a win-win situation.

  149. @Grey:

    Yeah, that teams crazy loaded with bats, its only a 10 team league and I used your draft strategy (well 80% yours, just I like to fill my infield with power bats then move to the outfield where you seemed to punt the MI spots and take OF early).

    Regarding the start/sit article, I came to the conclusion a few weeks back that in a relatively shallow roto league that doesn’t have an innings limit, I was gonna start my guys every time (sitting Kershaw for the win vs Ubaldo convinced me). If guys are only worth spot starts anyways, I figured its better off using that roster spot to stream with, there’s always SOMEONE who is playing the Astros or something that deserves a play. I’m sure its a different environment in deep leagues and/or inning limit leagues but of course I’d use a different strategy in that case.

  150. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    @DrEasy: Yeah I hate that too. What about Hughes + Tejada + one of your two best closers for Hanley. Does he have guys he can drop to make room for them?

    Also, lowball question…I just offered Fister for Beckett. Legit offer or lowball? Yeah, Beckett just got on the DL, and yeah, maybe Fister does do well all year. But if the owner I offered the deal to thinks like I do and thinks Beckett will come back and stop pitching like Kit from ‘A League of Their Own’ and more like he usually does than it doesn’t really matter what K-less Fister does. So, my question I guess is, if I offered you Fister for Beckett would you feel insulted?

  151. @DrEasy:

    Yeah I’d be careful offering 3 lesser players. Hughes is a good offer as he’s a ‘hot name’, but maybe leave out Tejada and offer a Donkeycorn+Hughes so it doesnt seem like hes taking your trash. Its a perception thing but Hanleys a blue chipper and no one wants to trade a blue chipper for guys like Tejada and Dotel.

  152. @Kent Bottenfield:

    As for Beckett, I might not do the deal, but I dont think I’d be insulted. Fister’s clearly been the more valuable player to date. The owner might be so fed up hes eager just to get him off his team however, so make the offer.

  153. @Eddy:

    Its in the NL park, and Lackey’s been really struggling. If it was in Boston I might think twice but even if Hamels gives up 4-5 runs in 6-7 IP it could still be a good start as long as he gets a half dozen K’s and possibly a W. You can’t get W’s with benched pitchers, and its hard to lead the league in K’s if you aren’t playing your guys every time out.

    PS Didn’t ya see the article above? *emoticon*

  154. @Eddy:

    Unless of course its a HtH league and you are dominating pitching this week (like me in my HtH league). I am sitting him there on further review.

  155. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    @Elijah: Yeah, you’re right. From his point he’d probably be glad to hear offers for Beckett. And don’t get me wrong, Fister could turn out to be the Pineiro of last year, but I’m willing to bet against it and look for Beckett to be ok.

    Another potential trade I’m thinking about… would you try to sell high on Casey McGehee? Like combo him with Ryan Ludwick and go for Kinsler? Would an owner in 10th place in a 12 team league be willing to make some adjustments? And is McGehee NOT going to continue to be the #2 ranked 2B on ESPN’s player rater for 5×5? My outlook is that McGehee could start to fall while Kinsler begins to climb. Thoughts?

  156. @Kent Bottenfield:

    You’d better ask Grey on McGehee, I’m just not experienced enough to say, but Kinsler’s a guy I’d certainly try to move him for if I wanted to sell high.

  157. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    @Elijah: I’m thinking that too. Grey, stop combing your moo-stosh and enlighten me on selling high on McGehee please.

  158. @Kent Bottenfield:

    But yeah, this to me seems to be approaching the time to target potentially frustrated owners with trade offers. Whether or not they see the need to make adjustments is hard to say but you should try, sure.

  159. @Kent Bottenfield:

    Think hes done for the night. Typically he doesn’t answer questions after he posts tomorrow’s report.

  160. DrEasy says:
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    @Elijah: @Kent Bottenfield: Thanks for the advice! I’m hesitant to part with my lone donkeycorn (Marmol)… I’ll think up of something else.

    Fister for Beckett doesn’t look insulting to me. It’s an immediate gain + hot guy for later gain + proven guy type of deal, which may turn out to either side’s advantage.

  161. @Eddy:

    One last thing on start/sit. It sounds cheesy but I’ll check the Accuscore prediction when I’m on the fence. It’s statistically pretty accurate even if its not so good at predicting single game results. If it’s saying over 60% chance of a win (Philly is at 63% its saying), I’m gonna roll my starter even if I’m afraid he will give up 4-5 runs because I want that W and the extra K’s I would be wasting as well.

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