@Pat: Yeah, inauspicious.

@Wyatt: Reyes is slightly over Crawford.

@majortommy: I think Hawpe has to get traded one of these days and Smith takes over.

I like to go Braun in the first round followed by Crawford late in the 2nd round. I’ve been reading up lately and found that maybe taking Reyes instead of Crawford in that position could be a better fit considering his SS eligibility, i’ve read your projections on Reyes this year, but given the oppurtunity haven already take Braun in the First round, who would you take late 2nd?

You had one comment: A guy ripping you for not having Carlos Pena on your Top 10 1B. Of course, you had him #2, the guy just didn’t read the whole thing. Gave me a laugh.

Ethier and Hill or Zobrist for Rollins?

I just don’t trust Davis.

So basically I could turn Fielder into Davis, Ethier, Lind and Jones and move back 1 spot.

I guess I talked myself into this one.

Is that a deal you would make?

@Steve: Hehe

But on that same note, I was looking at Derek Holland’s minor league numbers on their site. I was surprised to say the least. In A-, A, A+, and AA ball, he had a K/9 of 11.15, 8.74, 10.74, and 10.04 respectively. This in a combined 217.2 IP. His MLB was in the low 6, but what can you expect from kid who pitched in low A ball a couple of years ago?

So would he be a better late round flier than say a Homer Bailey, Masterson, or Lilly?

re: how many years, I think it’s the same as any stat, the bigger the sample size, the better. If you see outliers between three years, you have to take those things into account.

You’ll be happy to know tomorrow’s post deals specifically with how to evaluate certain pitchers.

On advice of other Razzballers I have started to poke around in stats that Fangraphs offer, particularly under the “Advanced” tab (I now consider myself “Advanced”). For pitching, I have become enamored of the xFIP stat, or expected Fielding-Independent Pitching (as I understand it, this stat takes a pitcher’s FIP and normalizes the HR rate). Does it make sense to use a pitcher’s xFIP in the preceding year or two as the starting point for predicting the pitcher’s upcoming success this year, taking into account any obvious external differences (e.g., injuries, change in team/league, etc.)? Is there a pitching stat that others prefer to use as the basis for predicting, or maybe use in cinjunction with xFIP? Is xFIP really better than FIP?

After six years of doing this fantasy baseball think I am finally trying to figure some stuff out…

You may never hear from me again.

I am most likely punting SS is my keepers league and am exploring any and all SS options.

Do you think either player warrants full time status in a 12 team league 5×5 where only 12 SS will be drafted?