Did a little fishing. Here’s what I hooked. Arrayed all 576 RCL teams from last year, sorted by each pitching category, assigned a rank, 1 to 576 (just like your RCL league, 1 to 12) then totaled the ranks for the five cats. The result was a ranking from top to bottom for the best pitching managers.
The #1 ranked manager produced (followed by the average for each cat):
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
W |
SV |
GS |
|||||||||
1481.33 |
3.20 |
1.13 |
1407 |
101 |
162 |
185 |
|||||||||
(1314 | 3.72 | 1.24 | 1186 | 83 | 91 | 174) | |||||||||
The DRAFT—SPs:
#1 manager’s drafted SP:
rnd |
pick |
PLAYER | TEAM |
IP |
K |
W |
SV |
ERA |
WHIP |
3 |
34 |
Zack Greinke | LAA |
212.33 |
200 |
15 |
0 |
3.48 |
1.20 |
5 |
58 |
Jon Lester | BOS |
172.33 |
140 |
8 |
0 |
4.96 |
1.42 |
9 |
106 |
Brandon Beachy | ATL |
81 |
68 |
5 |
0 |
2.00 |
0.96 |
15 |
178 |
Brandon Morrow | TOR |
61.67 |
54 |
5 |
0 |
2.77 |
0.97 |
19 |
226 |
Colby Lewis | TEX |
98.33 |
88 |
6 |
0 |
3.48 |
1.10 |
21 |
250 |
Ricky Nolasco | MIA |
50.33 |
30 |
5 |
0 |
3.93 |
1.29 |
Total/mean: |
676.0 |
580 |
44 |
0 |
3.44 |
1.16 |
Just for fun, someone who ‘drafted’ a ‘pitching-first’ team:
Rnd |
pick |
Name | Team |
IP |
K |
W |
SV |
ERA |
WHIP |
1 |
9 |
Roy Halladay | PHI |
156.33 |
132 |
11 |
0 |
4.49 |
1.22 |
2 |
19 |
Justin Verlander | DET |
238.33 |
239 |
17 |
0 |
2.64 |
1.06 |
3 |
25 |
Felix Hernandez | SEA |
232 |
223 |
13 |
0 |
3.06 |
1.14 |
4 |
39 |
Zack Greinke | LAA |
212.33 |
200 |
15 |
0 |
3.48 |
1.2 |
5 |
51 |
Jered Weaver | LAA |
188.67 |
142 |
20 |
0 |
2.81 |
1.02 |
6 |
69 |
Stephen Strasburg | NATS |
159.33 |
197 |
15 |
0 |
3.16 |
1.15 |
Total/mean: |
1187.0 |
1133 |
91 |
0 |
3.27 |
1.13 |
The Fredsies:
6 |
69 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS |
32 |
34 |
2 |
0 |
1.13 |
0.88 |
14 |
165 |
Vance Worley | PHI |
19 |
21 |
1 |
0 |
2.37 |
1.32 |
Total/mean: |
51.0 |
55 |
3 |
0 |
1.59 |
1.08 |
|||
Oh yeah, #1, guru of all gurus…wait for it….wait for it…drum rolllll…
Razzball’s own, Rudy Gamble!
STREAMING–Here we are aligned:
#players |
IP |
K |
W |
SV |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
||
SP |
Razzball Rudy Gamble |
35 |
1170.66 |
1006 |
85 |
0 |
3.41 |
1.17 |
7.7 |
SP |
The Fredsies |
79 |
1118.69 |
898 |
83 |
0 |
3.14 |
1.21 |
7.2 |
CL |
Razzball Rudy Gamble |
7 |
283.34 |
383 |
15 |
161 |
2.60 |
1.00 |
12.2 |
CL |
The Fredsies |
13 |
211.99 |
247 |
8 |
108 |
2.42 |
1.06 |
10.5 |
SP&CL | Razzball Rudy Gamble |
35 |
1454 |
1389 |
100 |
161 |
3.25 |
1.14 |
8.6 |
SP&CL | The Fredsies |
92 |
1330.68 |
1145 |
91 |
108 |
3.02 |
1.19 |
7.7 |
Razzball Rudy Gamble used 35 SP and 7 CL. His ERA + WHIP was 4.39.
The Fredsies used 79 SP and 13 CL (min 2 SV). ERA + WHIP was 4.21.
Rudy gets two, and ONLY two, more W from his SP.
The clear edge for drafting SP high is in K. Rudy a resounding +245K!
MR |
Razzball Rudy Gamble |
10 |
27.34 |
18 |
1 |
1 |
0.66 |
0.99 |
5.9 |
MR |
The Fredsies |
111 |
329.7 |
314 |
13 |
13 |
4.61 |
1.39 |
8.6 |
With a solid stable of SP and CL, not many available slots/ops for Rudy to stream MR. The Fredsies, however, due to not carrying SP, streamed 111 MR, garnering a +12 in both vulture W and vulture SV, and +296 K.
The ‘hole’ in my streamers was chasing saves. Here’s the breakdown for MR who got W and SV:
cnt |
IP |
K |
W |
SV |
ERA |
WHIP |
|
MR–vulture W: |
11 |
67 |
70 |
13 |
2 |
2.15 |
1.00 |
MR–vulture SV: |
9 |
55 |
53 |
1 |
13 |
4.58 |
1.56 |
Noticing that BABIP appears to be a pretty good indicator for the MR (better than FIP, xFIP, etc.). Try to target MR with less than .300 BABIP. Have to believe that not chasing saves will keep overall ERA and WHIP at stellar levels.
Overall:
players |
IP |
K |
W |
SV |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
||
TOTAL |
Razzball Rudy Gamble |
52 |
1481.33 |
1407 |
101 |
162 |
3.20 |
1.13 |
8.5 |
TOTAL |
The Fredsies |
203 |
1660.33 |
1459 |
104 |
121 |
3.34 |
1.23 |
7.9 |
The 121 SV ranked 2nd in my league.
Since I lost ground chasing closers, I might lean to grabbing one or two stellar closers (Kimbrel) where another manager might ordinarily go for a strong starter.
The top four leagues overall had the top four IP.
Rudy ranked #91 in moves with 128. (BTW: the top four overall ranked leagues (of the 48) were the top four ranking leagues in moves…hmmm.)
The Fredsies streaming was a tailored fit for ESPN and a 180 GS limit. You have to evaluate/flex for appropriate application to your league’s rules.
Honorable mention: Razzball’s own, Grey Albright was #4 overall in pitching out of 576 teams!
These are Rudy’s thoughts on streaming:
“I think finishing in the top 6% for pitching (37/~576) without disproportionately investing in pitching at the draft is an impressive feat that will not be easy to duplicate – let alone improve upon.
I think your strategy of maximizing innings by frequent use of MRs makes a lot of sense based on ESPN’s 180 GS constraint (not as useful in IP-capped leagues). That should help for Ks and should help for Wins (although it looks like your MR win rate is due for some regression).
I think you are realizing one thing that is baked into our Point Shares when it comes to relievers – Saves are nice but ERA/WHIP/Ks are, as well. I did well in Saves last year but never really sold out (e.g., having awful pitchers who happen to get Saves) to do it. Invested a 6th round pick in Kimbrel, got unlucky with Marmol (great K’s…but dropped him when he lost the job), did okay with Putz, and had some nice pickups with Clippard and Cook. In a different league, I could’ve been middle of the pack in saves. But the broader point I’m trying to make is that the ‘market’ undervalues reliever ERA/WHIP/K. I Point Shares had Aroldis Chapman at $7 BEFORE he got the closer job because of his K potential. The only tough thing is just realizing that relievers probably have a little higher disappointment rate than hitters – so you can invest in good relievers and get screwed based on injury, regressed performance, or losing Save opportunities.
My POV is that you can’t have a single plan for a league because you never know how the league will over/under-value players. I felt Kimbrel was undervalued and won out. But if someone drafted him in the prior round, I might’ve have punted CL1 a few rounds until I felt the value was right. My strategy started with building a dominant K/9 staff and ended with a lot more streaming than I’d planned given injuries. Still worked out okay – and while it’s given me confidence in using streaming/SON – I still might draft a strong SP staff if I think players are being undervalued too much. Grey didn’t draft a top closer and didn’t draft his 2nd starter until after the top 100 and he had the 4th best pitching staff, so there’s no one way to skin this cat.”
Thank you, Rudy, for The Stream-o-Nator! And here’s its genesis.