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No one carries two catchers in one catcher leagues.  If you do, you probably suffer from mushy brain.  There’s a cure for that, stop reading ESPN’s fantasy baseball advice.  So in 12 team fantasy baseball leagues, you have 10 to 15 catchers at any time to choose from off of waivers.  Hey, Miguel Olivo’s guest judging on RuPaul’s Drag U and he’s hitting!  What do you know, Rod Barajas looks less Barajas-y!  Skinny Pudge is seeing fat pitches! It’s ironic, if I’m using ironic correctly, and helpful for my fantasy team! Most catchers are passed around like blow at a Eric Dane/Rebecca Gayheart clam bake.  That, there, is reason enough to punt catcher.  There’s always available options on waivers.

The top 4 options at catcher last year were Mauer, Martinez, Posey and McCann.  There’s one waiver wire pick-up there.  After those guys, we have Buck, Napoli, Olivo, Soto and Ruiz.  Three waiver wire pick-ups (Buck, Olivo and Ruiz), two guys who were drafted late in drafts (Soto and Napoli) and one of those guys I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli).  It’s like this every year with catchers.  If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Saltalamacchia and Arencibia ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2011, I’d say, “I told you Salty, Iannetta and Arencibia were good bargains.”  Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value.  Open up your little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.

Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher.  John Buck.  He’s available in every draft.  Always is.  No one drafts The Midnight Cowboy until around the 18th round.  His stats last year were 53/20/66/.281.  Victor Martinez’s stats were 64/20/79/.302/1.  V-Mart gets drafted 29th overall.  The difference between the two was 11 Runs, 13 RBIs, some average and a steal.  Flying whoop.  Instead of V-Mart, you could draft F-Her.  Whereas instead of John Buck, you could draft Kevin Slowey.  Oh.  Okay.  Those are even.  A first baseman comparison would be instead of V-Mart, you take Adam Dunn.  At Buck’s spot, you draft Gaby Sanchez.  Huge difference there, too.  A shortstop comparison would be Reyes vs. Scutaro.  Another huge difference.  At catcher, there’s hardly any difference.  You can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much.  No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.

  1. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    Grey – this is such an obvious point, but their are new Razzballers every year, who need to that I understand that you need to use Conversion techniques such as wearing down resistance from following the Faux’perts. I wonder how this plays out in RCL drafts. Maybe Fred or Rudy can crunch the numbers to see how many rounds catchers individually and as a group are drafted under their ESPN ranking?

  2. Hemmo says:
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    Grey- I have to announce keepers in a 14-team 2 Catcher .OBP league shortly. I keep 6 and have (among others) V-Mart and Carlos Santana. Would you suggest keeping them in a 2-catcher 14-teamer (as they become more valuable) or would you stick with the punting catchers strategy and drop them in favor of other keepers?

    Others: Latos, Oswalt, Pujols, Kinsler, Jeter, Rios, C.Lewis, Nolasco, Sanchez

    My thinking was that V-Mart and Santana put me massively above the competition at C, even though they are bargains to be had..

    Thoughts?

  3. Jason says:
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    Grey, how do you explain the huge differences in how the pre-ranks are this year in each league. Yahoo/MDC has Tulo at 4 or 5, but ESPN puts him all the way down in the double digits. Same with Howard (he goes like a full 20 picks later in ESPN’s game). Is this proof that you should make your own pre-ranks based on your gut and what not?

  4. Tony says:
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    But what about JOE MAUERS awesome average, he’s also going to hit 30+ HR’s this year….. (saracasm)

  5. Malacoda says:
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    Mauer is an excellent choice if he can be had for the right price. He is so far ahead of his peers in run scoring/average and rbi that it does give you a leg up, similar to owning an elite shortstop. I think he is easier to acquire in an auction league though, because in a draft he goes too high. Batting average and runs are very, very difficult to fix once the season has begun. In the last 4 years I have played in 8 competitive leagues (not random leagues either), and won 3 of them. All three had Mauer. He is likely good for just 8-18 HR, but I will take it for $20 or less.

  6. Jason says:
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    Thanks Grey,

    Your awesome strategic tips help me win leagues every year. I tell all my league-mates to pay attention to what you have to say and then run the opposite way. I especially love the bait-and-switch selection bias you got going there!

  7. Eddy says:
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    Completely agree with you, Grey.

    Now, in an OBP league, however, is Oye Como Va worth a 7th round pick?

  8. Malacoda says:
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    @ Eddy: I think that if you completely agree with Grey, the answer is no. Punting catcher means punting it until the late rounds. There is a lot of other pitching and hitting talent available at round 7.

  9. Lob Ball says:
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    I assume in 2 catcher leagues you punt twice?

  10. sean says:
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    @Tony: Adam Dunn will hit more HRs with his bare hands.

  11. Eddy says:
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    @Malacoda:

    It’s just the OBP category that throws a wrench into things. The kid is phenomenal there, and coupled with 20 hr/80 RBI potential, it’s hard to pass up.

    That, and it’s a keeper as well.

  12. Tony says:
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    @sean: adam dunn will hit more HR’s by ripping his left arm off and swinging it with his right…..

  13. Malacoda says:
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    @Eddy: I happen to believe in owning a good catcher at the right price. For what it is worth, in the two leagues I played in last year, both winners had Posey. I know he was a free agent gift, but it sure didn’t weaken my opinion to see it. I am a little worried Santana can hold up after surgery, but he sure is an OBP machine with a bright future.

  14. Tony says:
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    @Malacoda: I understand what you’re saying, but picking up Posey from free agency and spending probably a 2nd round pick on Mauer are two totally different scenarios. You got value out of Posey because he was essentially FREE.

  15. Ray says:
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    @Malacoda-Mauer is not far ahead of his comp in RBI, he is ahead in runs scored and BA, but much lower in the HR category. I prefer Posey or Santana a few rounds later.

  16. RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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    Keeper league question (12-team, 5X5, roto, with MI, CI, OF, LF, CF, RF, UTIL, 3 SP, 3 RP, 3 P). This team is in pretty bad shape and I went into rebuild mode last season. SO I have a LOT of guys who could be very good in a few years. We keep 6…at least 2 of which need to be pitchers. Unlimited keepers, no draft position effects. Here is my list of candidates:

    Beckham, Domonic Brown, Starlin Castro, Adam Jones, Ka’aihue, Kendry Morales, Carlos Pena, Travis Snider, Wieters, Wright, Cain, Gallardo, Jaime Garcia, Garza, Hellickson, Matusz, Nolasco, Wandy, Jonathan Sanchez, Volquez.

    I have no problem whatsoever with playing for next year because I can’t see this team competing this year. I thought for sure to keep Kendry…but this latest injury news has me a bit spooked. I may have to keep him anyway.

    What do you think Grey and others??

  17. What is the earliest round you would consider “too high” for Crapoli? (10 team, 5×5 standard, H2H)? Is the 12th too high?

  18. Matt Damon says:
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    Hey Grey – if you were a catcher, I’d punt you! It’s nice to see some common sense being applied to the catcher position here…

  19. wilsoniam says:
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    grey, what are the chances (in your opinion) that bruce hits 30 HR this year?

  20. Malacoda says:
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    @Tony: Like I said initially, Mauer goes too early in drafts. I find he is a better deal in auctions.
    @Ray: While I don’t see a reprise of Mauer’s 28 hr season, I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit 15+ again. I find HR to be an easier category to patch than batting average and runs scored. Fixing avg and runs during a season is like trying to make a u-turn in an aircraft carrier in my opinion.

  21. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Sound logic as always Grey. I’ve done very well punting catcher the past 2 years. 2 years ago I took Sandoval extremely late thanks to Razzball. Last year I started the year with Soto but a heads up by Razzball and I ended up with Posey off the WW. I have not invested in an early C the past 2 years but have ended up with the best C production the past 2 years.

    This year the only one I could see going after is McCann if I can get him in the 5th of a 10 team draft. Many sites are rating McCann the 4th C off the board this year so he could be a relative bargain. If not him then it’s a punt situation. Maybe I’m crazy but Boston making Salty their #1 guy has my interest for sure. Potential post hype guys interest me, especially with his move to Boston. Maybe I’m too optomistic but I see top 10 numbers from Salty this year and I can get him in what?…….the 20th round? Maybe later.

  22. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Oh wait……speaking of post hypes……Wieters is definitely on my list. He’d cost more than Salty but he’s got a better chance for bigger numbers too. I’m going to lmao when the Buck Show leads the Orioles to a better division finish than the Yankees.

  23. Alvin says:
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    Grey –

    Would you be an advocate of keeping a backup catcher in a shallow league with deep benches? Mine is a roto league with 9 starting positions (the 8 in the field and a util) and about 5 offensive bench slots. I’ve used a backup catcher in the past usually to supplement my starter and maximize counting categories by staying as close to the 162 catcher game limit as possible. Thoughts? Is that bench/roster deep enough to warrant this play?

  24. mr baseball says:
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    Here is living proof that I do punt catchers – In 20 team league I am proud to own Nick Hundley – I expect a double double from him this year

    In basketball, a double is the accumulation of a double-digit number total in one of five statistical categories—points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocked shots

    In baseball its an accumulation of 2 categories – Homeruns and RBI’s – I expect at least 10 Homeruns and 10 RBI’s from Hundley this season

  25. Wilsonian says:
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    Just for a numbers thing here on punting catcher…

    Currently in a 16 Team H2H draft which has been going on for roughly a month. Counting keepers, there have been 295 picks. Salty is still available, and so are Martin, Arencibia, Ruiz, Jaso, and Olivo.

    So basically, any one of those 6 could be had as late as pick 300+.

  26. Jon says:
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    Grey,

    I just did a mock at Yahoo (5×5, roto) picking from the #4. Only one or two autodrafters, so close to the real deal. What do you think? TIA

    1. Hanley Ramírez
    2. Prince Fielder
    3. Kevin Youkilis
    4. Andrew McCutchen
    5. Brandon Phillips
    6. Francisco Liriano
    7. Chris Young
    8. Dan Haren
    9. Colby Rasmus
    10. Shaun Marcum
    11. Jonathan Broxton
    12. Mike Napoli
    13. Adam Lind
    14. Chris Pérez
    15. Drew Storen
    16. Adam Jones
    17. Jhoulys Chacin
    18. Ian Kennedy
    19. Johnny Cueto
    20. Frank Francisco
    21. Carlos Zambrano
    22. Mike Minor

  27. dsimon says:
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    What do you think about carrying two catchers in order to maximize the stats you receive from that category, so you can plug someone in on an off day? Only if you have sufficient depth?

  28. Timequake says:
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    Here’s what I got out of my first draft (10-team league, only two RPs). Any thoughts on what to improve?

    C. McCann
    1B. Fielder
    2B. Zobrist
    SS. Andrus
    3B. Longoria
    OF. Holliday
    OF. McCutchen
    OF. Granderson
    UTIL. Pedro Alvarez

    SP. Sabathia
    SP. Gallardo
    SP. Jered Weaver
    SP. Anderson
    SP. Kuroda
    RP. K-Rod
    RP. Street

    BN. Chacin (SP)
    BN. Kennedy (SP)
    BN. dlR (SP)
    BN. Edwin Jackson (SP)
    BN. Huff (1B, OF)
    BN. Abreu (OF)
    BN. Hunter (OF)

  29. JoeBot5k says:
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    I agree with punting catcher and then keeping your eyes open for lightening in a bottle. I was in 3 leagues last year, punted catcher in all 3 during the draft, picked up Posey in all 3, and subsequently won all 3 leagues.

    Not sure who will be this year’s Posey, but I will be punting Catcher again during the draft.

  30. Beardawg says:
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    I’m with ya, but still no harm in keeping Napoli for $1/2yr, right?

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: Rudy did do this:

    http://razzball.com/what-can-we-learn-from-2010-razzball-commenter-league-results/

    @Hemmo: Your keepers look pretty poor, so sure keep them.

    @Jason: You want me to explain why someone else ranks players the way they do?

    @Tony: Yeah, those people disappeared.

    @Eddy: In a 20 team league?

    @Lob Ball: I don’t.

    @RandomItalicizedVoice: Wright, Cain, Gallardo, Jones, Morales, Snider…

    @Arlington Dongs: 12th sounds about right.

    @Matt Damon: Thanks, Damon.

    @wilsoniam: 60%

    @Jon: No idea how many teams.

    @dsimon: Think it’s a waste.

    @Timequake: I’d mock a deeper league. Every team in this league probably looks like an All-Star team.

    @Beardawg: Nope

  32. Jon says:
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    @Grey: My bad, 12 teams, standard Yahoo position setup.

  33. tommy too strong says:
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    @Grey, @Everyone:

    12 team league. We start 1 catcher, 1 2b, and 3 OF.

    It’s early round 7… Who is the better pick? Jay Bruce, Dan Uggla, or Buster Posey

  34. Mr2Bits says:
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    Grey: With your catcher theory, I am currently holding VMart at 6th round value. Would you rather hold him there and lose the 6th round pick in a 10 team league or keep DLR at 17the round or Morrow at round 18?

  35. Mr2Bits says:
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    @Mr2Bits:

    Kuroda is also an option at with a round 16 keeper

  36. Alvin says:
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    Grey –

    Would you be an advocate of keeping a backup catcher in a shallow league with deep benches? Mine is a roto league with 9 starting positions (the 8 in the field and a util) and about 5 offensive bench slots. I’ve used a backup catcher in the past usually to supplement my starter and maximize counting categories by staying as close to the 162 catcher game limit as possible. Thoughts? Is that bench/roster deep enough to warrant this play?

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jon: I like your team a lot. All guys I’ve said I like and would draft. Jones in the 16th is crazy value, but makes me wonder about your competition.

    @tommy too strong: Uggla

    @Mr2Bits: V-Mart

    @Alvin: No I wouldn’t.

  38. OaktownSteve

    OaktownSteve says:
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    @malacoda: I agree with you and with Grey. I think that Grey is right because in almost every draft players at positions with perceived scarcity get drafted too soon. People misunderstand scarcity so there’s value in having a rule of thumb that says “don’t overreach for scarcity.” On the other hand, there’s huge value in having a player in the top tier where the standard deviation of value at that position is high, and there’s a lot of punishment for having a very bad player at the high standard dev positions. Grey solution to the problem is an excellent one…be alert on the waiver wire for catchers who will end up close to the mean rather than wasting a draft pick on a lousy one who will end up producing, albeit at least predictably, well below the mean.

    One last thought is that as roto evolves, pretty much everybody has caught on to the idea that scarcity has been misunderstood and it’s starting to swing the other way now. As such, I think there’s some value to be found by neither over nor under estimating the effect of deviation. For example, I think Mauer at 45 and especially Posey at 80 something in Grey’s rankings would be huge value. I believe this in theory and I’ve also been road testing it in the War Room spreadsheet by playing around with mock drafts and moving Posey and Mauer up in the rankings. I’m finding teams doing pretty significantly better by moving those two up.

  39. Jason says:
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    @Grey:

    Absolutely not. I was just wondering what your opinion was on why there was so much variation between the two sites. If it is clearly just “they like this guy more than the other” than I can understand that. But why isn’t there a consensus #4 draft pick throughout the sites, like there is for #1-3?

  40. papasmurf says:
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    Did Napoli apologize to Sciociapath for being born yet or can we expect him to deepen his ass print on the bench this year?

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jason: Cause you have people who bring their own prejudices rating humans that have huge variables.

    @papasmurf: Napoli’s now on the Rangers.

  42. tommy too strong says:
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    In my league, the trendy “sleepers” are being talked up so much that people are actually considering taking them so early that they can no longer be sleepers anymore. They would need to breakout to justify their draft spot.

    Hellickson is being considered over guys like Wandy, Dempster, Romero, and Marcum, and Chacin seems destined to be overdrafted as well. Alot of the “up and coming young studs” are usually overvalued in our drafts.

    Now it is up to me to figure out other guys who i can get at a bargain price due to my league-mates obsessions with the trendy guys.

    I have two top notch keeper SP bolstering my staff, and I am looking to use another draft pick on a SP in the #25 – #35 range of your rankings as my 3rd starter. Than I play the waiting game…

    I plan on waiting until the middle-late rounds to fill out my staff with guys from this list…

    Bumgarner
    Kennedy
    Morrow
    Matusz
    Niese

    Then in the very late rounds of my draft I hope to snag a couple guys from this list…

    Happ
    Minor
    Holland
    Bailey
    Westbrook

    How do you feel about this strategy? Are you on board with the guys I am targeting?

    B-T-Dubs… u da mannnnnnnnn!

  43. Oregon Nut Cups

    Oregon Nut Cups says:
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    I punt catcher every year and we have a TWO catcher league. Worst I’ve finished is 4th. Every year, I take the late round fliers if I draft one at all. This year, I only want JP, Salty, or Napoli (only because Napoli is not really a catcher this year and can come relatively cheaply).

    The punting catcher strategy is something to really think about in H2H leagues. Just as your team is rolling into the playoffs, your catcher is wearing down as it’s one of the most physically demanding positions in baseball. So while you draft a Joe Mauer, I’m getting a guy that will play 150+ games and not wear down when I really need them.

    Can we change SAGNOF to SCAGNOF?

  44. Derek in Utah says:
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    I think McCann has a huge year, and Posey will have a slight drop off. Mauer will return to form.

    After those three, I agree with you….it wouldn’t hurt (much) to punt your Catcher spot.

  45. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: I’m in a 10 teamer, we keep 7. I’m keeping Fielder, Longoria, Kemp, J-Upton, Werth, Kershaw, & Wainwright.

    Got offered Kinsler & Wright for Longoria.

    Werth would be the odd man out on my end.

    Whatta you think about that?

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @tommy too strong: In the starters rankings, it’s pretty clear how I feel about most of these names. Don’t go over Happ or Westbrook and I don’t like them.

    @Oregon Nut Cups: Ha

    @Derek in Utah: Doesn’t hurt at all.

  47. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @timSTi: I’d take Wright and Kinsler.

  48. Eddy says:
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    I’m surprised Steve didn’t mention this an hour ago when it was tweeted.

    Hanrahanan has been named the closer.

  49. Steve says:
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    @Eddy: Man’s gotta sleep.

  50. Eddy says:
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    @Steve:

    But baseball never sleeps, Steve.

    By the way, good to see everyone here survived Albertageddon.

  51. Derek in Utah says:
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    So where does Albert sign next season? Atlanta? Washington? LA? Who’s got the dough for the best player on the planet?

  52. Tony says:
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    @Derek in Utah: St Louie will pay him or they’re stupid. You dont let the best player in baseball walk. HE IS ST LOUIS. I understand later on in the contract they’re probably going to get hosed, but he’ll put butts in seats and sell jerseys….

    All in all this is why baseball needs a cap. They need a limit on how long contracts can be, 10 years is ridiculous for a 31 year old, and they need a max on contracts.

  53. Eddy says:
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    @Derek in Utah:

    Angels, Dodgers and Cubs have been cited as possible teams.

    Rosenthal released an article yesterday stating that a trade for Howard or Tex can solve their woes, but fangraphs pretty much pointed out the obvious and said none of them were even near Albert’s level.

    The Mets’ name has been thrown in there as well, but it’s highly unlikely considering the Maddoff scandal.

  54. Derek in Utah says:
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    @Tony: I agree 100%. Pay the man. The length of the contract wasn’t the issue, but rather the amount.

    @Eddy: Love to see Albert in LA, but unlike St. Louis- that troubled ownership is not willing to build a strong franchise.

  55. Tony says:
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    @Eddy: @Derek in Utah: maybe my indians will get in the bidding?

    HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH…..

  56. Eddy says:
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    @Tony:

    Hell, I want my Marlins to offer him a two-year $60 mil contract!
    @Derek in Utah:

    Yup. Every time that LA is mentioned, the caveat is that the ownership has to change.

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Thanks for the heads up!

  58. Derek in Utah says:
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    @Tony: What will Stanton do this year (realistically)?

  59. Matt Damon says:
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    @Derek in Utah: .270-90-35-90-10 is my guess. Just for comparison, here are ESPN’s projections for Stanton – .390-139-47-152-25 (or something close to that).

  60. Wilsonian says:
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    It’s been rumored that the Cubs will try to sign Fat Albert and that Albert himself has stated if he’s not playing for STL he wants to be in Chicago (his family resides in KC, but who the hell would want to play there anyway?). The Cubs will knock about $45 million off their payroll for next season, and possibly more, making them one of the few teams that could pay him what he wants.

  61. Rick says:
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    I’d like to buy the mets.

  62. Derek in Utah says:
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    As long as the dreaded Yanks don’t buy Albert, I’m happy. That means Teix has to show us something this year.

  63. Tony says:
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    @Rick: maybe we at razzball should buy a team and manage them?

  64. sean says:
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    @Tony: Ha! sounds like HR derby trophy fodder for you.

  65. patsox834 says:
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    I end up punting catcher a lot. If I don’t get one of top-tier ones then I’ll just wait and grab someone like Buck, Ruiz, Olivo… or even if there’s an interesting name that fell a few spots (like Jose Reyes) I’d prefer to take them and wait a little while for a catcher that goes way later.

    Usually I try to sure up my middle infield first – big on power/speed combo guys, like Kinsler, Phillips, and Ramirez. Although power seems to be extraordinarily lacking at SS this year. At second, it’s much different – Utley, Cano, Phillips, Weeks, Kinsler, and even Aaron Hill, who’s taken later in drafts, but can hit 25+ homers. With shortstops, it kind of dies after Tulo. Well, except for the crazies who still jump all over Jimmy Rollins, even though he isn’t that good.

  66. sean says:
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    @Lob Ball: in a two-catcher league, you’ve got to get at least one stable catcher (ie: someone likely to put up top 5 numbers who isn’t being drafted like it) and then one Ronco catcher (set it and forget it) like a Buck or someone else who has 15-HR power that won’t absolutely kill you on average.

    Let the other guys draft Mauer and V-Mart on the same team, but at the same time, you don’t want to end up with Paulino and Teagarden.

  67. patsox834 says:
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    And hey Grey, I see you’re always bombarded with random questions about people’s teams, so I won’t twist your arm over it (this saying is much less applicable over the Internet), but I’m doing a twelve team keeper league in its first year with an offline draft – the team isn’t finished yet, but it’s shaping up.

    Settings:

    R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB

    Positions:

    C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util SP, RP, P, P, P, and the rest are bench spots

    I took over the team two picks in. Crawford and Wright were the players the other dude selected. Anyway, here’s what I have up to this point:

    C: Victor Martinez.
    1B: Adam Lind.
    2B: Aaron Hill.
    3B: David Wright.
    SS: Derek Jeter (sigh.)
    OF: Carl Crawford.
    OF: Jay Bruce (!)
    OF: Matt Kemp.
    UTIL: Andre Either (…)
    UTIL: Grady Sizemore.

    SP: Matt Cain.
    SP: Chad Billingsley.
    RP: J.J. Putz.
    RP:
    P: Ryan Dempster
    P: Brandon Morrow.
    P: James Shields.

    BN: Edwin Jackson.
    BN: James Shields.

    That’s all I have so far. I’m underwhelmed by this team. Not a fan of my pitching and my hitting has a few bright spots but is kind of dubious overall…anyway, that’s only what I think – what say you, Grey?

  68. Matt Damon says:
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    @patsox834:

    It looks like you might need another catcher. WINK!

  69. patsox834 says:
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    @Matt Damon:

    Yeah, and apparently James Shields is so good that I drafted him twice….

  70. Eddy says:
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    @patsox834:

    The key would have been taking a SP where you took Jeter.

  71. patsox834 says:
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    @Eddy: Yeah, good point. This is especially true since I’m playing with a few people who aren’t big into fantasy baseball (doing this draft on a baseball message board), so they take pitchers at weird spots – but even so, pitchers like Gallardo, Liriano, Hanson and Haren were still on the board.

    A lot of the time, I find myself skipping pitchers on the premise that “there will still be plenty of them around later.”

    Sometimes that happens, but too many times I’m stuck with a mediocre pitching staff. Meh, at least I’m aware of this mistake now, haha. In my latest mocks (past week or two) I’ve been taking pitchers slightly earlier. I used to hold off until like, round nine and maybe even later, but around round six or so is when I’ve started looking at them. It seems to be working so far, but I’ve only done two legit drafts using this newfangled plan, so it’s probably a little early for my inane assessments, haha.

  72. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @patsox834: Well, you didn’t punt catcher, you drafted Jeter and Ethier and you have no number one starter. Basically, ignored a lot of my advice so the team’s not going to look good to me.

  73. patsox834 says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, I’m disappointed in a few of my picks – mainly Jeter. And I’m not too crazy about the Sizemore pick. Ethier I’m not big on at all, but man, he’s really good trade bait, especially on the site where I’m doing this draft. I’m hoping to pawn him off on someone (currently trying), but we’ll see, I suppose.

  74. Steve says:
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    Pods to the Blue Jays.

    Not great for Rajai I suppose.

    @Grey: Last year, I’m pretty sure when you hovered over the Baseball Rankings link in the top nav, it rolled down to reveal all the individual rankings links.

    Am I right? If so, can we have that again?

  75. shacknsty says:
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    Just subscribed to a site called Fantasy Junkies. I read their first opost about their draft strategy in an expert draft. They drafted Agonz first, then Mauer, then . . .geth this. . . Posey. “Will. The extra ABs give us an edge on the competition versus other time sharing Cs?” Grey you’re the greatest on the interwebs.

  76. sean says:
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    Rickie Weeks and MIL come to 4yr/$40 with an option for a fifth. If you weren’t avoiding him before, time to think about it now…

  77. sean says:
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    @Steve: I wonder if this means that Snider’s leash will be the shortest? I know there were reports that they didn’t want Davis to be their everyday CF/leadoff, but I’m not sure that Pods can play CF at this stage in his career without it crushing his value on the bags.

  78. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Thanks for the heads up!

    @Steve: It didn’t do that. It rolled down to reveal different Point Shares posts. Rudy and I decided that it cluttered things when you accidentally rolled over it, so we did away with it.

    @shacknsty: And there’s that.

    @sean: What a terrible signing. Not sure if I’d sign him for four years in a keeper league where there is no pot.

  79. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Ah yes – you are correct.

    I still liked it though.

  80. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I hear ya, but I imagine people rolling over it causing it to drop down and not even realizing the rankings box itself is a link.

  81. sean says:
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    @shacknsty: @Grey: That site is mostly garbage looking for slight edges (last year it was looking at lefty/righty splits to make better voltron players than other 4/5 OF guys). I think this comment is a bit out of context as they explicitly stated that they were going contrarian in a ‘pert draft and breaking the “rules.”

  82. Steve says:
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    @Grey: That’s also true. It did take me a little while to get used to it.

    While we’re on the subject of punting catcher, we had a conversation last year whereby you could see taking Mauer much earlier (like early in the 2nd) if you were in a league that counts OBP and AVE. My H2H league does that. Not suggesting early 2nd or anything like that (and we’re looking like 12 teams this year, rather than the 14 we had in 2010), but do you still see a case for taking a closer look at him than you might otherwise?

  83. Kazmere says:
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    When you draft, do you typically draft a few Brain-Freezes before your MI/CI/Util slots?

  84. sean says:
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    Indians signed O-Cab 1yr/1M with incentives.

  85. patsox834 says:
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    Grey, just dumped Ethier and Dempster for Greinke and Rolen. Hooray! Now to get rid of Jeter….

  86. Black Beard says:
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    Grey, right now Furcal is going around 140 in ESPN drafts. Do you think this is late enough that he can actually provide some value here?

  87. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    In deep leagues (14 and 16 teams), when do you want to have MI and CI locked up?

  88. Spartacus says:
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    Grey,

    Probably this has been mentioned but what would you do in an AL Only 2 catcher redraft league? I always seem to get it wrong. I hate paying for catchers but every year it bites me in the azz.

    Thanks,

    Spartay

  89. sean says:
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    Did my mock today, no prep just picks off the cuff. Don’t think I did too bad. Light on AVG, I bet… I haven’t run the numbers.

    Pos/Player/Rd

    C: Santana (16); Iannetta (23)
    1B: Teixeira (1)
    2B: A. Hill (15)
    SS: Reyes (3)
    3B: Zimmerman (2)
    CI: M. Reynolds (13)
    MI: EY Jr (20)
    OF: J. Upton (4); Heyward (5); Bruce (9); Krispie (10); Stubbs (17)
    U: Tabata (21)
    SP: Gallardo (6); Verlander (7); Liriano (8); Scherzer (11); Marcum (14); Volquez (22)
    RP: Papelbon (12); Broxton (18); Axford (19)

  90. Kazmere says:
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    Mock draft today. Haven’t run the #s yet either, but first glance thoughts? Screwed up my SP while watching King Albert MLB news– grabbed 5 SPs instead of 6, but other than that?

    Yadier Molina C
    Ryan Howard 1B
    Chase Utley 2B
    Evan Longoria 3B
    Elvis Andrus SS
    Crispy Young OF
    Colby Rasmus OF
    Brett Gardner OF
    Manny Ramirez OF
    Jose Tabata OF
    Adam Lind UTIL
    Ryan Theriot MI
    Mark Reynolds CI

    Greinke
    Haren
    Daniel Hudson
    Cueto
    Volquez

    Andrew Bailey
    FrankFrank
    Hanrahan
    Aardsma
    Chapman
    Dotel
    League

  91. Eddy says:
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    @sean:

    That’s either a 10 team mock or a 12-team mock with 8 auto-drafters

  92. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: In a 14 team 5X5 dynasty league, would you prefer Gordon Beckham or Aaron Hill at an IF slot? Thinking kind of long term…

  93. GopherDay says:
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    D-Backs have signed Russell Branyan…Ugh…

  94. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, he’s more vaulable there, for sure.

    @Kazmere: Maybe one before, but not a bunch of them.

    @sean: Thanks for the update!

    @Black Beard: Yeah, that’s not bad.

    @Eddy: Every draft is different.

    @Spartacus: I’d buy one decent one.

    @sean: No idea how many teams and doubt the competition was very fierce if you were able to abandon hitting for three rounds at Gallardo and still get a decent team.

  95. Beau Brackish says:
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    In a H2H keeper league, which set of pitchers would you rather own:

    Cliff Lee/Matt Garza or Jered Weaver/Matt Cain/

  96. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Thanks. You have him at 41, so he’d be a decent pick if he fell into the 4th?

    Yahoo (where the league lives) has him at 35, so it’s possible.

  97. sean says:
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    @Eddy: @Grey: 10. Other than the RCLs, I don’t play in any 12s. The CBS cash leagues are all 10, so that’s what I mock as well. Apologize for not mentioning it…

  98. Van Hammersly says:
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    Grey: I think I know the answer to this, but in a 12 team standard league, which side do you prefer…?

    Lincecum/Hamilton/Posey vs. Halladay/Texeira/Uggla

  99. GopherDay says:
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    @Van Hammersly:
    Halladay > Lincy
    Teix > Hamilton
    Uggla > Posey

    The Halladay side.

  100. @Grey and anyone else:

    First day thinking about FBB in earnest this year. Feel like I’m reporting for camp late…

    Keep 5

    12 team mixed 6×6 H2H – standard 5×5 + OBP and QS / CI, MI, 4 OF, UTL
    Draft pick cost in parenthesis.

    Pujols (1)
    Wainwright (3)
    Donkey Dunn (4)
    Cole Hamels (5)
    Yo Gallardo (7)
    Brett Gardner (25)
    Carlos Santana (25)
    Daniel Hudson (25)
    Trevor Cahill (25)
    Angel Pagan (25)
    Logan Morrison (25)

    For multiple picks in 25 round, each keeper would cost the next pick. 25, 24, 23, etc.

  101. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    I have done 6 Yahoo standard public league drafts, and Mauer has gone 30th, 27th, 20th, 32nd, 28th, and 13th.

  102. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Van Hammersly: Read the rankings, it’s not close.

    @3FingersBrown: Hey, man, good to see you again. Pujols, Wainwright, Gardner, Morrison… Could go a couple of different ways though.

  103. @Grey:

    I may take a gamble and go with Santana over Morrison, my thinking being that they’ll have similar numbers but ‘los gets the position scarcity edge. Of course his leg could snap again…

    Last spot is tough but I’m leaning toward Daniel Hudson. Kid was so money and his lifetime numbers say he can sustain it.

    I am high on Gallardo too though. He’s 200K’s if healthy and I think he can seriously bust out. A rotation of Waino, Gallardo and Hudson would be nice to start, huh?

  104. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @3FingersBrown: It would be a nice rotation, but I went with the choices I did because I didn’t really think it was great to have 3 starters as keepers. They are good ones though.

  105. Wilsonian says:
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    Here’s something that’ll really drive ya nuts, Grey:

    Toronto is nearing a 5-year/$65 million extenion with Jose Bautista.

  106. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wilsonian: Will be interesting how much of that the Angels pay in 3 years.

  107. Giant JJ says:
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    Grey, because of your take on BA as a category, I’m going to take on more BA risk than years past by not shying away from low BA players that can hit for power and/or speed. I follow your logic there. But that means grabbing potentially high BA players where I can get them. That’s why I want to target Wieters.

  108. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Re–Angels paying.. HA!!

  109. Giant JJ says:
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    So in order to follow one of your draft rules, I feel I need to break another.

  110. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: ZING!! You’ll be here all week…two shows on Friday!

  111. @Grey: I hear that about keeping 3 SP. It’s a high risk/reward proposition.

  112. Mike from Jersey says:
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    When are you doing the risky pitchers article?

  113. steve b says:
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    Well I see all these people drafting Posey in the 3rd round.Guys he’s had 1 good year.Yes I think he’ll be good but you ever hear of a sophomore slump.Pitchers will start to figure him out and he’ll get frustrated.Its very uncertain.I want to use my third pick on a guy that is allmost a sure thing that has a track record.You dont draft 18 hr 1B,3B,or OF in the 3rd rd do you?So why draft an 18 hr catcher.Your looking for the best numbers you can get in the 3rd round not at a position.Posey is not a sure thing.Nothing is sure but I’d rather take a guy with a 3 to 5 year history

  114. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wilsonian: Hehe

    @Mike from Jersey: Rudy does it, have to ask him. I do think the data didn’t support it as well as he’d hope, so there might not be one.

  115. JoeC says:
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    @Kazmere: Yo, fellow RCL’er! I like your team, overall, but I hate THEriot as your MI. There’s gotta be better options out there!

    SP scares me a bit with the last 3… seems like a fair bit of risk. Love Reynolds at CI and Lind at UTIL.

    Crazy that you got Howard, Longoria and Utley. That should be unpossible!

  116. JoeC says:
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    @steve b: I don’t know how easy Posey’s gonna be to frustrate. From what I’ve read, the kid has sterling character and knows how to make adjustments. To me, he looks like the real deal. (Note: that doesn’t mean I draft him in Round 3, so we agree on that!)

  117. Josh says:
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    Grey, the more I prepare for drafts and talk to friends about players, I can’t find anyone anywhere as high as you are on Andrus. His second half last year wasn’t good (.247/10RBI/9SB/31R), and with no power, he’s really a 2 category contributor. I know he should post plenty of runs, but is there a difference of 10+ rounds between him and Aybar, Alcides Escobar, or even undrafted Cliff Pennington? All of them can give 30 steals and some runs, while your Andrus projections are as optimistic as I’ve seen at 45 SB…

    I really only post this because I want to believe again. Help me Grey!

  118. Michael Wonder says:
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    Am I the only person that likes a late round pick on Kurt Suzuki? Oakland has some sky on hitting this year and he has potential to provide for every stat.

  119. Rick says:
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    I want to buy the mets. However, I have no money. If you would like to make some money email me. I promise generous returns on money invested with me. I guarantee consistent high returns on a monthly basis, so long as you continue to get your friends involved, and their friends, and their friends….

    Then, I could buy the mets. I could buy phat Albert. I could rule the world!!!

  120. Rick says:
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    Con’d
    I think I would give pujols a 20yr $400 million contract, and just have him live in my backyard and have him pitch bp to me all day. When I’m done he can fan me off while I play MLB the show.

    Please make this happen

  121. Doug Ault says:
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    @Wilsonian: I just thew up in my mouth,
    It’s done.He will be the best paid utility player within two years.

  122. Wade8813 says:
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    Buck hit .281 last year; that was a career high by 34 points, which seems like an important detail. Sure, you can pick him up and be pleasantly surprised, but if you see him doing well in the middle of the season, it’s probably more likely that he’s going to regress than to pay off for you.

  123. JoeC says:
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    @Wade8813: The point is not that you can pick up John Buck and have Victor Martinez, the point is that there will be *some catcher* who you will be able to pick up off waivers this season who will perform roughly equivalently to the top guys. John Buck is an example of that from last season.

  124. RightWingJedi says:
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    Great job G, way to go on adding common sense to the ROTO strategy. So in a 12 man mixed starting 2 catchers, are the teams than own one of the big 3-4 at a HUGE advantage?

  125. steve b says:
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    @Michael Wonder,
    I like Suzuki because I can usually get him when the rounds get in the teens.His numbers wont be that far off of Poseys except average.Catcher is a tough position and Posey is young.I’m not saying he cant have a good year but do you want to bet your third round pick on it?

  126. Wade8813 says:
    (link)

    @JoeC:
    The way he phrased things, it sounded like “look at the value guy you can get 13-14 rounds later. He’s always available, and produces almost the same”

    But assuming that he meant what you said (which makes more sense), then how do you go about ensuring that one guy ends up on your team? First of all – Buck DOES get picked quite often. So unless you happened to be the lucky guy, he’ll just end up on someone else’s team.

    Even if he’s not taken; like I said before, you see him performing better than anyone expected – do you gamble that he’s going to continue to outperform expectations? Or do you assume he’s more likely to regress?

    Besides, I’m sure you can find players who were taken incredibly late at many positions who did well. Maybe I should punt all of them? I’ll punt 3B and end up with Bautista, punt 1B and take Konerko, punt 2B and take Neil Walker, etc.

  127. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Wade8813: There were four catchers in the top 100 for last year’s Point Shares:

    http://razzball.com/2010-player-rater-for-12-team-mlb-leagues/

    After that top four, which I listed in the post, there was a hodgepodge of waiver wire guys. No other position is that terrible. There’s 6 3B in the top 54. And 3B is pretty shallow. So if you punt catcher and take, say, Buck you are taking more or less the same level player as everyone but 4 other owners in your league. And even those four owners (the ones with Martinez, et al) aren’t getting a player that is that much better. (For comparison’s sake, there were 5 SS in the top 100 and I think you should punt SS too if you don’t get a SS in the top 4.)

  128. Wade8813 says:
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    @Grey:

    That’s an interesting way to look at it that I hadn’t really thought about before; if there’s only four good catchers and the rest are mediocre, then I can punt it and still be tied with 60% of the league in that position. On the other hand, if I take one of the top catchers, I’m ahead of that same 60%. One way of looking at it indicates that punting it doesn’t hurt as much, the other way is that taking one of them helps you more.

    Obviously if you don’t get one of the top ones, and the bottom ones are all close in value you should wait on the bottom ones. The real question is – How close in value are the top ones and the bottom ones? The fact that someone can have a career year and be worth as much as the top catchers doesn’t mean much unless you’re willing to snag him and risk him regressing to his normal production.

    On the other hand, if there are a bunch of catchers that are fairly close to the top 4 in value, then taking one of the 4 doesn’t make a lot of sense (but it’s also inaccurate to say you’re really punting the position, because you’re getting a guy who’s of similar value).

    Top 100 players/not top 100 is kind of a false delineation, because you could have a catcher ranked 97 and a catcher ranked 119 (Posey/Napoli), and there isn’t much difference between them.

    It seems to me that the only issues are opportunity costs, and how the rest of your league values them (for instance, I’d be willing to guess that catchers get taken a little later in Razzball leagues than usual because of your articles like this one).

  129. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wade8813: The question of how close in value the top ones and bottom ones are I go over in the post. They’re not that different, that’s why I’m saying to punt them.

  130. Wade8813 says:
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    @Grey:

    You sort of did – you pointed out that several of the next best catchers after the top 4 were available late – but you didn’t show how good any of them were in comparison except for Buck, who was an anomaly.

    You asserted that catchers are “bunched together in value”, but didn’t really demonstrate it.

  131. Wade8813 says:
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    @Grey:

    Just wanted say – I don’t mean to come across as being overly critical. You bring up some good points here and in other articles. I saw a way that IMO you could improve a bit.

  132. dave says:
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    Grey… lets go with the Cabrerra DWI update. How far does he fall? Where do we draft him now? You still have him at #1 mustache boy?

Comments are closed.