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This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft.  Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.

The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across 10/12/14/15/16 team ESPN and Yahoo default roster format leagues.

These numbers should only be used directionally.  Please note that each projection source projects to a different league average so your team may look great if using a ‘bullish’ source and look poor if using a ‘bearish’ source.

Personally, I ignore team totals throughout a draft and go by feel in terms of my team’s balance.  While I have had regrettable drafts over the years, I do not recall one that failed because my team was not balanced enough.  If I do happen to have the time and curiosity to do an in-draft litmus test, I just add up the Point Shares per category to see which categories are lowest.

If you are looking for more detailed projections, please see Grey’s post from earlier this week that provided 1st place, 3rd place and average team totals from last year’s Razzball Commenter Leagues (12-team ESPN roster format).  It also included the average difference per standings point for each category.

Final note:  The differences between ESPN and Yahoo roster formats are much greater for hitters (13 ESPN starting spots vs. 10 in Yahoo) than pitchers (9 pitchers in ESPN vs. 8 pitchers in Yahoo).  In daily leagues, I have found that Yahoo leagues end up with similar innings totals as ESPN leagues, indicating that owners are that much more aggressive in cycling in relievers during SP off days and/or streaming.  In any case, I ended up using the same pitchers for 14/16 team ESPN/Yahoo rosters while I had slight differences in 10/12/15.  Don’t sweat the little differences.

10 Team 12 Team 14 Team 15 Team 16 Team
ESPN Y! ESPN Y! ESPN Y! ESPN Y! ESPN Y!
R 1,038 831 1,003 807 969 784 952 774 928 766
HR 269 218 256 212 243 202 238 200 232 196
RBI 1,004 798 966 781 929 754 913 747 890 739
SB 173 144 166 134 157 133 154 131 149 126
AVG .271 .274 .269 .271 .268 .270 .267 .270 .267 .269
W 93 88 90 87 89 89 88 86 87 87
SV 125 125 110 110 99 99 92 92 87 87
ERA 3.63 3.61 3.65 3.64 3.70 3.70 3.72 3.72 3.74 3.74
WHIP 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28
K 1,204 1,150 1,185 1,139 1,168 1,168 1,154 1,123 1,142 1,142

33 Responses

  1. Rick Tuesday says:
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    Any chance we can see OBP instead of AVG? Our league just changed over this year.

    • I only have this data modeled for 12-team ESPN format, I have 75th percentile for a team at approximately .340

  2. Wade Ortega says:
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    I have a Yahoo league with 13 hitters and 11 pitchers. How might this affect the totals?

    • Assuming you’re at 5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL, use the ESPN values instead. I’ve never modeled 11 pitchers. Offhand, I’d expect roughly 20% more Wins/K’s, just about the same # of Saves, and maybe a 0.05/0.02 uptick on ERA/WHIP.

  3. brad says:
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    Anyone know where I can find numbers for a 20 team league?

  4. 2 Cups 1 Braun says:
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    Rudy,
    What are you using for your projections, Razzball ? Also, is there an exportable form of the 400 rankings?

    • Combo of the Steamer projections + CAIRO. Thus the totals probably err on conservative.

    • 2 Cups 1 Braun says:
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      @2 Cups 1 Braun:

      Also what you you replace W with for QS? I am in a 10 team keeper yahoo league?

      • I think QS on the aggregate is roughly 1.33 x Wins. You might want to do a check with 2012 data to see if my recollected math is right (that SP Wins divided by QS is roughly 75%).

  5. JJ says:
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    Thanks Rudy! What’s your take on my squad (OBP league):
    C- Napoli
    1B- Votto
    2B- Pedroia
    SS- Zobrist
    3B- Alvarez
    OF- J. Upton, Bruce, Pence, Jennings, Cain
    Util- Stubbs
    SP- Wainwright, M. Moore, Lester, Hanson, Volquez, Griffin
    RP- Hanrahan, Axford, Betancourt, Frank Frank, Cook, Storen, Robertson (for ratio help)

    • Looks pretty good on offense. SP might be ratio challenged.

      • JJ says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:
        As always, thanks Rudy! This is what I thought initially. Will have to work on a trade or two. Good luck this year!

  6. Rob says:
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    Sorry if this is a dumb question but what does “75% mark” mean?

    • In a 12-team league that would mean the team that gets 9 points. In a 16 team league, that would mean 12 points.

      We’ve found that if you’re going to set a goal, the 75% mark is a good gauge.

      • Wrigley says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        Good job Rudy….I do this myself each year.

        It’s a great gauge for your team. Just something I don’t really pay attention to until about June.

  7. Rags says:
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    Are we going to get NL and AL only versions of this?

    • Yeah, I can put together 10 and 12 team for next week if there’s enough demand…

      • Rags says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Well, crossing my fingers, and thanks. Honestly, I really only care about NL-only, I just included AL out of loyalty to the XX-only brotherhood…

  8. Arod's Frost says:
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    Rudy,

    Two part question for you:.

    1. In a weekly lock league (no daily roster changing), Normal 5×5 format, how would you value SPs relative to Grey’s rankings? Im entering my 3rd year with this format and my experience tells me that having an Ace may actually be worth reaching for. So should I bite on Strausburg in the teens..?

    2. Do you see there being a player out there who can act like last year’s BJ upton or Crispie Young from the day’s of yore? That is, is there somewhat who can put up all peripheral categories but has a poor ADP due to past average concerns?

    Thanks,
    Frost

    • 1) Grey and I are pretty infamous for disagreeing on when to draft SPs. I’m open to drafting SPs in the 2nd round – depends on what hitters are on the board. I’ve found weekly leagues employ a lot of 2-start pitchers which increases the overall team IP for the year vs. a daily league. Is there an IP or GS cap? An IP/GS cap increases the value of an SP in my eyes. But even without one, I think there’s a solid case for Verlander or Strasburg before pick #20 (Kershaw’s hip worries me) – especially if you gotten a solid OF in Round 1. Last year, I was hell-bent on getting a 1B in the first 2 rounds but I’ve found there’s solid 1B bargains in the 5th-9th rounds.

      2) I just looked through my draft board for high HR/SB guys with bad AVG. No one quite in their mold but Desmond Jennings, Starling Marte, Drew Stubbs, and Danny Espinosa aren’t that far from it.

  9. Bill says:
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    Where can I find some of the Google Docs you referenced at the beginning of the article?

    • BeerMeDean says:
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      @Bill:

      I have the steamer projections in a custom Google Doc… don’t know much about excel though. How do you set this formula up?

    • @Bill: I don’t create a Google Doc like this (i just cut/paste the point shares into google doc and just x off any drafted player) but cut/pasting Steamer Projections takes u half the way there.

  10. Matt says:
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    How would you rank Jose Campos, Joe Ross, Matthew Wisler, Manny Banuelos, John Lamb and Tyrell Jenkins in dynasty?
    thanks

  11. Matt says:
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    Any chance we can get goals for NFBC leagues?

    • I’d use the 15 team goals and maybe goose them up with a 2nd catcher’s stats. Something like 40/8/40/1?

  12. MJ Rich says:
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    I play on CBS 10 team NL only. Two catchers, 1b,2b,3b,ss,5of,2util. 9 pitchers

  13. B.o.B says:
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    I’m in a 10 team Yahoo H2H league, do these goals correspond with this type of league or are they more for roto or points leagues?

  14. Rob Huckestein says:
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    Hey Rudy,
    One of my biggest gripes about playing in public money leagues is that there is always that one or two guys in the league that either have no clue or have no clue and are convinced they have a winning strategy that would support trades like offering up their best power hitter (say Jose Bautista) for speed and relief pitching (lets say Ben Revere and Wilhelmson, for instance). I was in two Yahoo pro-leagues last year and there were actually more trades overruled than were let through by Yahoo’s “trade police”. There were even managers frozen from the message boards because of the ire that was exploding over terrible trades being accepted. It got to be a joke, for sure. This is my round-about way of saying that I’m now thinking I’d rather be in a league where there is a no-trade format. I believe a no-trade league would be the most objective way to determine if a fantasy team/manager is really the best over the course of a season. Otherwise, it could be that the best team is the team that got the best trades that weren’t disqualified by the powers that be. I was chatting it up with some guys in a Yahoo mock and mentioned this and one fella said that NFBC had that option. I’m not registered with NFBC so I got on the site and found that you really can’t do anything, including finding out if there are no trade leagues, until you give up a credit card number. I’m wondering if there are other sites that offer no trade leagues. I’ve thought about starting a league like that and running the money through something like league-safe. I may do that, but it will have to be a public league because there aren’t 12 people in Alabama that are into fantasy baseball. Any suggestions?

    • You can get info on NFBC leagues without giving your credit card. Here is info on their online contests – http://nfbc.stats.com/baseball/leagues/online.asp.

      I like NFBC but it is a cash league ($150 min) and there are other rules that might be more of a departure from your current league than you’d like (eg, some formats have super-deep benches and no in-season pickups).

      If you want a typical format but fairer trading, I’d join a Razzball Commenter League (http://razzball.com/2013-razzball-commenter-leagues/). We managed almost 50 leagues last year and none if the devolved like your league did.

      Good luck!

  15. Steve says:
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    Probably a stupid question, but… My projections are a bit more optimistic than yours. Can I just find my own 75% mark in each stat category by sorting and seeing what the number is (ie if we are likely to draft 120 hitters can I look at the 30th best AVG and project that as 75%)? Or would it require more serious math? Thanks.

    • @Steve: Not a stupid question. But it would be a really complex answer. I’d probably goose up my averages a bit (and down for ERA/WHIP) but take the ‘goals’ with a grain of salt. As I mentioned in the post, I think it’s better to just focus on drafting the highest value team possible and just make sure that you’ve got some speed and AVG to counterbalance the power. Especially in shallow leagues, you’re not winning/losing because of roster imbalance post-draft. You’re losing because you didn’t get as much value as you could’ve in the draft (+ a whole lotta good fortune/luck).

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