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This post is not meant to scream fire in the theater of Razzball.  I’m not saying don’t draft these guys.  I’m not unfriending them.  (I would hide all of their stupid Mafia Wars updates.  Okay, quick rant, I have a friend who emailed everyone that he just had a kid.  Yay for him, I know.  So I emailed him back congrats that the kid doesn’t look like his wife.  Then I go onto Facebook and he just won a cannoli or some shizz on Mafia Wars.  He just got home from the hospital with his newborn and he’s warring with 12-year-olds hiding behind fictitious Mafioso personalities?  Nice.  I wonder in forty years if his kid will email me saying his Dad died then start playing an online video game.)  I’m just saying you need to be aware of certain concerns that I’ve kept to myself about these players.  I’m unburdening myself.  My shrink says it’s good for me.  I still like these players; I just want you to have the whole picture.  Anyway, here’s some concerns for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Miguel Montero – Concern:  Snyder.  I’m worried that Chris Snyder might see more ABs than anyone thinks he will.    Montero sits one game a week?  We’re cool.  Snyder gets two games a week and suddenly Montero will be lucky to match last year’s numbers, forget eclipsing them.

Gordon Beckham – Concern:  Ozzie.  I hate putting my young player, upside cards in the hands of a manager that has been known to be absolutely bonkers.  Beckham could leave Spring Training batting 2nd and still end up being replaced by Omar Vizquel by May.  Jose Mesa would not be the only upset one.

Troy Tulowitzki – Concern:  Less speed, cold start.  I’ve actually expressed these concerns before, but it was done in my mumbly, Milton voice.  Tulo’s never stole anywhere near 20+ bases before last year.  Also, his career April average is .194 and usually doesn’t fully turn it on until June.  What if he starts pressing in June to finally turn it on and it never comes?

Justin Upton – Concern: Youth, expectations.  J-Upside will be a great one for many years to come.  He’ll probably win an MVP within the next five years.  He’s still only 22 for the majority of the 2010 season.  He will give you a 30+ homer, 20+ steal season; I’m just not sure it comes this year.

Josh Hamilton – Concern:  Health.  Well, the concern says it all.  Can he stay healthy for 500 ABs?

Yovani Gallardo – Concern: He’s gonna win the Cy Young and I’m not going to own him.  Okay, the other players on this list I like with concerns.  I’m avoiding YoGa with concerns.  Gallardo went from a huge innings jump from 2008 to 2009 and definitely tired at the end of 2009 (5+ ERA in August and September).  But it wasn’t an arm injury in 2008.  He did some shizz to his knee.  He might make me look stupid.  Oh, Gallardo, you give me turmoil.

Nolan Reimold – Concern: Youth, Achilles.  Some gooftards just don’t get their act together in their second year.  I’m hoping Reimold is not one of them, but that concern is there.  Then you have an Achilles injury that’s taking longer to heal than Achilles’s Achilles.

Ian Stewart – Concern: I’ve overhyped him.  Is he that different than this guy?  Haha, I made you click the link.  Don’t worry, it’s safe for work.  Unless you work with Bill James, then it might be considered porn.

72 Responses

  1. Bring Back Pluto says:
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    Gulp. So in the spirit of addressing those concerns, and any other deficits you notice, what type of players do you think I should fill my bench spots with? I should have a couple dollars left in this auction after grabbing a couple more relievers.

    I was thinking about grabbing Stewart; now, I don’t know.

    (FWIW, this is a 7-team league, which I realize is probably inherently less interesting)

    C Montero
    C Soto
    1B Votto
    3B Wright
    CI Butler
    2B Cano
    SS Reyes
    MI Pedroia
    OF Bay
    OF Werth
    OF Granderson
    OF McCutchen
    OF Hamilton
    U Adam Jones

    P Sabathia
    P Verlander
    P Vazquez
    P Lester
    P Santana
    P Kershaw
    P Broxton
    P
    P

    6XBench

  2. Ben C says:
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    Long annoying keeper question…

    13 team 5×5, 3yr keepers, auction.
    2c’s 1b 2nd SS 3rd mi ci ut, 5 of, 9 pitchers, deep bench

    We keep nine and these are the ones i’m leaning towards
    (1)=’s last year can be kept (2)=’s this year and next

    -Pujols-$39(1)
    -Morales-$4(2)
    -Zobrist-$1(2)
    -Cargo- $2(2)
    -Ellsbury-$11(1)
    -Greinke- $4(1)
    -King Felix-$27(2)
    -Aardsma- $2(2)
    -Bailey- $3(2)

    I also have

    -Montero-$4(2)
    -Beckham-$7(2)
    -J. Lopez-$1(1)

    Would you swap any of these with the nine I have listed?

  3. Schlitzy says:
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    You ever see a facebook update from one of your friends that says, “So and so just bread a llama- come join Farmville!” or “Mystery keys found at Yoville!” or “Adopt a baby flamingo at Island Paradise!” or “I still need parts to complete my Cafe World spice rack!” Then you wonder- shit I’m really busy at work every day, so busy i forget to eat sometimes- how the F does this person have time to play all these games? That’s my Andy Rooney rant for the day. Carry on.

  4. Schlitzy says:
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    @Schlitzy: It’s bred not “bread” you idiot. But a bread llama would be tasty with a bacon, egg and cheese sammich.

  5. brett says:
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    @Schlitzy: Fantasy baseball is my Farmville. But yeah, I hear ya. I can’t even read Razzball every day.

  6. The Cino says:
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    Sorry but I also have a long annoying keeper question or 3…

    12 team mixed 10×10, 6 keepers, auction, $330 budget.
    2C 1B 2B SS 3B MI CI UT 5OF 9P 6Bench

    We keep 6 and these are the ones I’m leaning towards
    I can these 5 for 2 years at this price, or just this year for $5 less

    -Hanley-$10
    -Kemp-$5
    -Wright-$10
    -JUpton-$10
    -Votto-$10
    First question, for the 5 would any be just 1 year at $5 less?

    For my last spot I have these for 1 year
    -Werth-$1
    -Carpenter-$2
    -Santana-$5
    -McCann-$25
    -Verlander-$18
    -Sandoval-$5

    Which one? and would you swap any others for any of the 5?

    Last tidbit, we have 3 new teams who do a 6 player keeper draft before our auction and they’ll likely scoop up any great values or scarce players. For this reason I’m considering keeping McCann even though he’s not a great value compared to others, should I?

  7. Bartaksu says:
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    I agree with most of these concerns, except the Tulo one. Obviously not expecting 20 SB again (fine with 10 really).

    What are the chances that he doesn’t slump for the first two months? Any guess what his stat line would look like?

    To me, I see a similar chance that he doesn’t slump at all (for months at a time), than he presses and slumps for 4 months…

  8. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Ben C: i’m not a guy that likes to keep closers, so i’d be leaning towards swapping aardsma and bailey for beckham and montero.

    of course, it’d depend on how ridiculously cheap the closers are relative to other closers of their ilk.

  9. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @The Cino: wait, maybe i’m confused, but you have guys like hanley for $10 and kemp for $5?? while mccann is $18?

    if you can keep werth for $1 then i think it’s a no brainer who your 6th keeper should be.

  10. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey are any of these concerns gonna make you think twice bout drafting any of these guys or drafting them later then you have?

  11. GopherDay says:
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    As for Tulo, I never draft him because of Yahoo’s redonkulous ranking!!! Some mindless bozo goes out and drafts him ahead of Kemp, Tex, Prince, Howard, Miggy, Longo, etc. I would get angry, but I can go out and draft Kemp and Tex…makes for a pretty good 2 rounds.

  12. mc serch says:
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    How bout D. Wright (permanent brownout conditions in Flushing?), Holliday (which half of 2009 you gonna get?), Grady (one injury away from being Hamilton-Lite?), Reyes (Mo’ Runny, Mo’ Problems?), Zimmerman (was 2009 fo’ realz?). Like Tulo and J-Up, who you mentioned, these dudes are going high…with some serious questions attached. It’s tough to win a league if your second round pick, esp. at a thin position like SS or 3B, either doesn’t produce or is dead to youi. Exactly how many “safe” picks are there in the second rd?

  13. Tony says:
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    my theory on TULO since i’ve realized YAHOO has him overranked and there’s no way i’m getting him…. let someone else take him, then make your move for him about a month or so in, he does his normal COLD start and MAYBE you can swoop in…. trade a hot andrus, everth, or flavor of the week plus a junky closer and sneak away with a second half beast?

  14. AdamH says:
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    I’ve got a couple:

    The Wandwagon – Does it concern you how late it took for him to bloom? I mean, don’t get me wrong, I’m buying him, but I do have some slight trepidation towards him.

    Adam Wainwright – Maybe it’s the innings jump. Maybe I just have a weird gut feeling.

    Do either of these guys concern you at all?

  15. mc serch says:
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    @Tony: now that sounds like a plan!

  16. Antrim Warriors says:
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    Grey…off topic: PENCE 2 HRs yesterday!! BIG fan!! breakout year.

  17. brett says:
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    @mc serch: I agree with you on Zimmerman. In fact he might be my biggest concern this year because he’s exactly where i want to draft a third basemen.

  18. The Wookiee says:
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    @antrim: 2 words- travis ishikawa.

  19. Tony says:
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    @mc serch: yup…. why pay money for the cow when you might be able to trade some pennies later on for it?

    And still get all the delicious milk.

    did i just say that? yes i did, i’m sorry i’m from OHIO….

  20. Eddy says:
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    Grey, what do you think about the big FraGu for 2010? This IS his magical 27 year old season, and there’s a good chance he’ll hit in the heart of the order considering Beltre and Branyan have left the squad.

    And another question- I’m planning on filling up my OF in yahoo with power and speed guys (Werth, Grandy). With that said, would you like Bruce in a Util role or Pence?

  21. Rabbit says:
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    Re: Ian getting overhyped–it’s not just the Grey Ian Hype Machine, but it’s the fact that the mainstream fantasy “experts” seem to have picked up on Ian as a sleeper as well, making him not so sleepy anymore… With the long run-up to the beginning of the season (old February Grey is now January Grey and soon to become December Grey?) and the wealth of information and fantasy advice websites out there, it just seems really difficult to find the Next Big Thing before your competitors do, especially if you’re in a League where people do their homework.

    That’s why I think I’ve decided to focus more on potential bounceback guys or post-hype sleepers–they’re not as sexy as getting the Next Big Thing, so they’re more affordable and can provide the sleeper stats you need to win your league (like Chris Davis, e.g.–that’s some nice linking, Grey). By the time my auction rolls around, I just think guys like Ian S are going to be too hyped, too expensive (believe it or not).

  22. Tony says:
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    @Eddy: As long as you have enough speed I’d take Bruce over Pence easy eddy. I dont know why but pence is not on my target list whatsoever, hasn’t really impressed me…. maybe i need to look at him more?

  23. Sean says:
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    Grey, in your SP rankings, you express concern about both Gallardo and Scherzer and the huge increase in IP last year. So, confronted with the choice in a draft, which one do you take and why? Thanks.

  24. David says:
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    @ Grey
    I’m glad you’re starting to come around on Stewart and Upton. Upton especially. Those 2 have concerns that ppl can’t look past..

  25. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Tony: i think pence is a great guy to sneak in a grab around pick 100-120. i mean, i’d take him over dread pirate, hunter, soriano, abreu, and others being drafted in the OF aorund that time. he’s still got some upside, and he’s got a track record of at least solid production, and he’s turning 27. i would imagine he’ll move up in the order a spot or 2 too, thus his RBIs should get a boost. i’m not reaching for him, but i’d probably put him around #20 on my personal OF list.

  26. Tony says:
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    @Rabbit: idk rabbit i think ian gets hyped by one person and the next person HATES him… I dont think there’s any “chris davis hype” going on whatsoever…

    you either believe Stewart is going to do it or you think he’s a .230 hitter thats going to split time this year with melvin mora…. which could happen, so who knows….

  27. Tony says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: what are YOU expecting out of him? I dont see more than 10 sb’s? a bump in power?

    25/10 seems to be his norm with about a .290 average, def’ly nice around where he goes…

  28. Tony says:
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    grey thinks 30/15 and .295…. thats pretty juicy

  29. sean says:
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    @Grey: preach on! Upside is not without risk. Injury rebound is not without risk. Youth is not without risk.

    @Tony: I think Pence flies under the radar for a guy who can give you tremendous value in the middle rounds. How many guys that help you in five categories are you drafting in the 100s? Think 80/25/80/.300/15 with some room for growth in the power numbers. Not too far off from what folks are paying for their first outfielders and he’s got plus average and speed, something you won’t see from outfielders who can flirt with 30 HRs after the fifth or sixth round.

  30. majortommy says:
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    @majortommy: Two that is.

  31. royce! says:
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    @Bartaksu: (& @everyone else): Tulo’s “slow” or “cold” (scary quotation marks!!!) are nothing but bad luck.

    2008 April BABIP- .172 (LD% 18.2).
    2009 April BABIP- .225 (LD% 20.9).
    2009 May BABIP .262 (LD% 11.6).

    His BABIPs were higher in the last couple months (like in the .350 range). And in 2007, his BABIPs were around .300 for April and May.

    All of this points to Tulo just getting unlucky in the first couple months of the 2008 and 2009 seasons. Both years I watched a lot of these ABs (I drafted him in 2008, which was my first year playing FBB) and he seemed to always hit the ball very hard directly at a fielder.

    I agree that he’s not going to steal as many bases though. He got caught 11 times last year. That’s not very good. (Pence, who only stole 14, got caught stealing 11 times too. That’s really not good.)

  32. Eddy says:
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    @Tony:
    Well my only true SAGNOF guy I’m gonna try and target is Borbon. So other than that, the most speed anyone would have on my squad is 15-20 SB. Oh, and Andrus. I’m going to have to sit down and count steals later today and decide because I think I’ll have a tad bit
    more power than speed. Then again, speed is easier to find.

    And on the topic of Pence, I was just quite surprised at Greys prediction. 30/100 is nothing to scoff at. Though I think those numbers are a bit optimistic, 25/10 and a .280 average is not a bad deal for a possible third OF/ Util.

  33. Mr.MojoRisin says:
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    Sometimes I worry that Grey is reading my mind… I agree with him too much.
    Sometimes I worry that my leaguemates will discover razzball and become more knowledgeable… That would suck. I love seeing 10 closers go in the first 6 rounds.
    Sometimes I worry that ESPN will buy Razzball and start charging for Grey’s insights… Nothing personal Grey, I wish u well, but I’ve never paid for info and I would have to break that rule for your thoughts.

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Bring Back Pluto: Grab some pitchers.

    @Ben C: F-Her seems a little pricey, but I’d probably keep them the way you have them.

    @Schlitzy: Ha, totally.

    @The Cino: First five for the price you have them. You have Werth, Carp and Johan for those prices and you’re worried about a $25 McCann? I’d keep Werth.

    @Mikey boy324: They’re not changing how I draft at all.

    @mc serch: Yeah, there’s a bunch of question marks in the 2nd round.

    @AdamH: And Pujols has only one elbow…. Hanley throws his shoulder out when he swings too hard… Utley’s had reconstructive surgery… There’s concerns for just about everyone if you look hard enough.

    @Antrim Warriors: I’ve liked Pence this year for a while.

    @Eddy: Bruce has a bit more upside. I think FraGu could have The Natural’s bat and still go 17/17. You ever see him? He’s not exactly a 30 homer threat.

    @Rabbit: Thanks, my linking skills often get overlooked.

    @Sean: Gallardo’s a much better pitcher. Gallardo could easily be a Cy Young type pitcher. I wouldn’t say the same about Scherzer.

  35. Eddy says:
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    Ah screw it, I’m greedy as hell so I’m gonna make sure I have Pence AND Bruce come draft date!

  36. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Tony: i think you are looking at baseline projections of 80-25-80-.280-10, with the chance to exceed all of those projections. i’d take that over someone like abreu or hunter (being drafted around the same time) who pretty much has no shot of exceeding their projections, and are on the backside of their career. i’m definitely looking at pence as a OF3/UTIL guy.

  37. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    I think that the key with Davis is whether he can reduce his K’s from a Crapton to a Shizzload. Is Bill James still as high on him as he was last year? Somehow, I still have a trust issue with the sainted one as I still can’t understand how he rates Joe Morgan higher then Rogers
    Hornsby. I know that the Rajah was a scum bucket like Cobb, with the personality of a salmon, but at least I did’n’t have to listen to him drone on and on and on every Sunday evening.

    Otherwise, you are scaring the Shizzton out of me. All of the guys that I am drafting in mocks you now have concerns over. I was avoiding dutifully crossing off Gallardo as a high risk, in the same manner as Carp. I still don’t think that ESPN has caught on to Stewar, as he is rated around 200. Actually, I believe that you should put out your sleepers around the end of February, so all the ESPN plagiarizers can’t get their “sleepers” to the press on time for the draft.

    Otherwise, it is always a good thing to doubt oneself. Nothing in fantasy is cast in stone. As I recall, three of the top five players of last year were Reyes, Wright, and Sizemore.

  38. Denys says:
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    Hmm…

    Montero – Regardless of ABs, are you still regarding him as the next best C after Wieters is off the board? If the dude is still there in late 8th, early 9th (12+ teams) I’m still taking him there.

    Beckham – There’s only 5 good 3B (I don’t need to list them) and then it falls off dramatically for a sure thing. Might as well take a shot at the upside. Even if you get burned by Crazy Ozzie, you weren’t expecting THAT much anyway.

    Tulo – This one scares me. I’ve seen him go at the end of the first round, early 2nd. And it’s not like I sit any of my top picks because they go cold early. I think I’m just staying away – too much risk.

    J-Upside – The problem is that he’s being drafted 2 rounds ahead of guys like Werth, Granderson, and Adam Jones that will likely end up giving you basically the same stats.

    Hamilton – Hit, nail, hammer, head. Drugs are bad kids, even after you stop using them. I think his body is just worn the ‘f’ down. Sad really, a lot of talent but not enough health in bones/muscles to support it.

    Gallardo – Just don’t reach. But I’d take him in 8th-9th Rds among Peavy, Weaver, wandy, C-Bills, etc. It’s all about taking the risk at the right price… I think I’ve established that theme here.

    Reimold – I bet Hawpe will be on the waivers to replace if this one doesn’t work out. And you can get the extra steals later in the year when Eric Young gets his promotion.

    Stewart – Yeah, you guys killed this one with hype. Remember what momma told ya, don’t trust guys with two first names.

    Holla back.

  39. Denys says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: Plus Hamilton was in the top 7 :P

  40. Tell me what’s up with Jose Reyes and his “Thigh Roids”? I don’t trust those Met’s doctors. The moment I hear “fly him back to NY for tests”, you know he’s going to be out until the allstar break.

  41. sean says:
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    @royce!: BABIP isn’t necessarily a direct correlation to luck. I know that you examined it relative to LD%, but he could be hitting more fly balls. He could be slower to beat out ground balls. He could be failing to drive the ball like he does in the warmer months. The low BABIP isn’t necessarily about hitting bullets at the defense or failing to get the bloops to drop in…

    @Grey: like you and Rudy, I’m tending to favor letting others reach for “elite” shortstops this year and instead filling the position with a late-round speedster. It seems like a much better strategy than spending an early draft pick on Reyes, Tulo, Rollins, and Jeter and hoping and screaming at the TV or computer. I’ve noticed that the threat of position scarcity is forcing a lot of drafters into feeling like they HAVE to get one of these guys at SS. I think 2B is so deep that it offsets the shallowness of the SS pool.

  42. Tony says:
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    @Denys: Montero in the late 8th or early 9th? really? thats about 3 rounds too early…. comparing Justin Upton to Werth and Grandy isn’t very good either…. upton has way more potential… his upside is huge, he’ll hit for 30 points higher in average than either of those guys….

    If you’re rostering Hawpe you’re in trouble. He’s Juan Rivera’s boring twin, wait they are identical, they’re both boring….

    People that give me the well you can add player A + player B to = Player C are looking at this all wrong. The problem is its taking TWO PLAYERS to get ONE PLAYERS PRODUCTION, not saying thats exactly what you were doing there, but you were kinda leaning there….

    a guy in my league was just arguing/debating with another guy that he wouldn’t take kemp he’d just take raul ibanez and either pierre or morgan and get the same thing if not better?

    OK but it took you TWO PLAYERS to get those stats!

  43. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Denys: Regarding Gallardo, you won’t get him picking amongst Weaver, Wandy, CBills……the reason is Gallardo has Cy Young stuff. From what I’ve gathered, Grey is really on the fence with his lower ranking of Gallardo and has stated more than once that it could come back to burn him. Yes, Gallardo could be a risk because of his innings bump but so could both Josh Johnson and Adam Wayneright, amongst others. Grey just stated in his replies that everyone comes with some risk, even the great Pujols. After further review, I’m choosing not to lower Gallardo but would probably take him right behind Hamels, alongside of J Johnson, and just ahead of Nolasco and Kershaw.

  44. ichirosan says:
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    @Denys: Eh, I’m counting 6 3Bs… A-Rod, Longoria, Wright, Youk, Zimmerman and the Panda

  45. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @sean: I like your take on SS. I’m feeling the same. I’ll feel better not reaching for any SS not named HanRam and take other guys over SS reaches. I’m starting to feel better and better about getting a case of the Asdrubal much later in the draft.

  46. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @ichirosan: Aramis anyone?

  47. Like everyone else…I’m working on my keepers. In my league, we keep 5 players, comprised of at least 2 hitters and 2 pitchers. The keeper counts as the average of last year’s actual draft position and this year’s average draft position (using mockdraftcentral’s ADP). Here are my options, player name and then what round they’d cost me.

    Jose Reyes, 1
    Alfonso Soriano, 4
    Manny Ramirez, 4
    Aramis Ramirez, 4
    Victor Martinez, 5
    Carlos Quentin, 6
    Rafael Furcal, 7
    Robinson Cano, 7
    Chipper Jones, 9
    Andre Ethier, 9

    Cliff Lee, 6
    Chad Billingsley, 8
    Max Scherzer, 14
    Clayton Kershaw, 15
    Scott Baker, 16

    If Reyes falls to 25th on mockdraftcentral’s ADP, then he’ll only cost me a 2nd rounder, but I don’t see that happening in the next week. I feel like I probably need to keep him anyway, as I don’t know that I could draft anybody better with my 1st pick anyway, given that a lot of the first round talent will be kept by other owners.

    So, I’m leaning: Reyes (1), V. Martinez (5), Cano (7), Ethier (9), Cliff Lee (6), and Kershaw (15). Not all players I’d normally draft at their given ADP, but the best values available on my team. For instance, I’d never take V Mart in the 2nd round (where his ADP is currently), but averaged against last year’s pick in the 8th round, he becomes a good value in the 5th.

    Any thoughts or advice?

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: @Denys: Nice comments!

    @turnip: That could be a side effect of Red Bull. If you listen very close, it says Red Bull gives you wings and sometimes thyroid problems.

    @Mark Geoffriau: Wait, you keep 5 but you list 6 or did I miss something? Are you asking which guy to lose from that quintella? Reyes in the 1st doesn’t seem like good value.

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Grey: It might be sestella? If that’s a word.

  50. @Grey: Errgh, you’re correct…only keep five…I’m pretty settled on those 2 pitchers, but I am undecided on which 3 out of the 4 hitters to throw back. Thanks for being a mind-reader.

    So, you’d throw back Reyes and gamble on some actual 1st round value being available? On the off chance that he slips to #25 on mockdraftcental, would you keep him in the 2nd round?

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mark Geoffriau: Hard to say without knowing who else is being kept, but I’d throw back Reyes and hope to get an Andrus, Alcides or Everth guy later.

  52. JoeC says:
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    @royce!: Why this slavery to BABIP? If a guy has a low BABIP, could it be he’s not unlucky, but instead just not seeing/hitting the ball well?

    I mean, seriously, why does a low BABIP automatically mean “bad luck” and a high one mean “good luck”? Is there actual evidence that “luck” is the determiner of BABIP?

  53. @Grey: Yeah, that’s my only concern, tossing back Reyes and then seeing that all the legit 1st round talent is being kept. You’re probably right, though, better to take that chance, than to lock myself into paying for 2nd round talent with the 4th or 5th overall pick. Do the other 3 look legit? V Mart, Cano, and Ethier?

  54. peter says:
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    @turnip: I’ll have you know that Dr. Leo Spaceman is an excellent doctor, and a pretty good dentist.

  55. Eric H. says:
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    @Grey: I pick 11th in a 12-team 5×5 ML. I think I’m going to come out of the first two rounds with David Wright plus one of the big first basemen — perhaps Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder. When it comes back to me in the third and fourth rounds, I usually find that Brandon Phillips is around. In terms of adding an outfielder at the top of the fourth round, who would you favor out of B.J. Upton, Curtis Granderson and Jayson Werth? Do you think a top-4 of Wright, Fielder, Phillips and Upton is a pretty solid start? Thanks.

  56. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: What do you think about this Mock I just did?

    1. Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
    2. Mark Teixeira (NYY – 1B)
    3. José Reyes (NYM – SS)
    4. Brandon Phillips (Cin – 2B)
    5. Adam Wainwright (StL – SP)
    6. Nelson Cruz (Tex – OF)
    7. Josh Hamilton (Tex – OF)
    8. Cole Hamels (Phi – SP)
    9. Carlos Quentin (CWS – OF)
    10. Scott Baker (Min – SP)
    11. Carlos Mármol (ChC – RP)
    12. Matt Garza (TB – SP)
    13. Mike Napoli (LAA – C)
    14. Francisco Cordero (Cin – RP)
    15. David Price (TB – SP)
    16. David Aardsma (Sea – RP)
    17. Nolan Reimold (Bal – OF)
    18. Juan Pierre (CWS – OF)
    19. Ervin Santana (LAA – SP)
    20. Octavio Dotel (Pit – RP)
    21. Bobby Jenks (CWS – RP)
    22. Phil Hughes (NYY – SP,RP)
    23. Joba Chamberlain (NYY – SP)

    My computer froze after Nelson Cruz, and it picked everyone I had in my Queue, and then Baker, but I got it working by the 11th round. My OF is really ify, but I think my pitching is really strong.

  57. GopherDay says:
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    @GopherDay: Forgot! It was a 12 team mock, and I picked at the turn.

  58. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    Which guy do you like Grady Sizemore, uh, more with?

    Werth or Granderson?

  59. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eric H.: It’s good top 4 — Grandy, Werth….

    @GopherDay: Yeah, your outfield is iffy. If your outfield, besides Pierre pans out, it could be great. Chances are at least two will fall by the wayside. I’m not crazy about the two Rays pitchers, but it’s a small quibble. Overall the team looks fine.

    @Eddy: Grandy or Werth, doesn’t matter, in that order.

  60. Eddy says:
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    So my gf bought us tickets to every Marlins Saturday homegame (Yes, I PROUDLY contribute to that 29th place attendance) and I think by the time the season is over, I’ll be able to start a reggaeton/salsa band with the promotions they’ll give away.

    They include a samba whistle, cowbells, tambourine, clappers, airhorn, and a rally drum.

    I call the tambourine, anyone want in?

  61. Speaking of keepers, I made up a little spreadsheet keeper calculator. If your league does keepers like mine (keeper cost is an average of some previous draft position and some future or average draft position), this works pretty good. All you have to do is enter the 2 values in actual pick #’s (eg, last year’s actual draft position and this year’s average draft position), and it’ll calculate what round each pick falls into for last year, this year, and keeper cost. I’d be happy to email a copy (in .xls or .ods) to anyone who wants to check it out. It’ll have my current roster in it as an example, but it’d be easy to take them out and put your own players in it.

  62. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: That’s hilarious.

    @Mark Geoffriau: Is it something we should offer to everyone?

  63. @Grey: Well, it’s pretty specific in its usage…if your league doesn’t calculate keeper cost by averaging 2 different draft positions, it won’t be much help. But I’ll email you a copy and you can take a look.

  64. royce! says:
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    @sean: I’ll reply to your concerns in the order you presented them.

    BABIP correlates to luck. BABIP an also correlate to the other variables that you posit, but that doesn’t mean that BABIP does not correlate to luck.

    In 2008, Tulo’s GB/FB was 1.13. For April 2008, it was 1.06.

    He could be slower to beat out ground balls, but I don’t know where I would find data to analyze this. I don’t think that it would be significant enough to affect his BABIP by around .130.

    I agree that in 2008 that he was failing to drive the ball, meaning less HR. His HR/FB for April was 2.9. For 2008 it was 6.7. Pretty terrible.

    In 2009, his GB/FB went up to 1.83, but his HR/FB was a very high 25%.

    I did a simple calculation using his April 2008 GB, FB, and LD #s and using the #s for percentages of types of contact resulting in outs of 72% (GB), 79% (FB), and 26% (LD). This calculation yielded an AVG right around .320. His AVG for the month was .152. No one hits around 20% line drives and hits .152.

    But the most important aspect of the argument that he is cold early or a slow starter is that we only have three years of data to look at, and one of those years he was a lot better than the other two (and his BABIP was .305). So we have two options. We can say he’s cold early or we can say he got unlucky in April for two years in a row. I think it’s much too early to say that he’s just bad in April.

  65. Denys says:
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    @Tony: I was thinking roto wise. Hawpe can get you the other stats and Young’s SB production will catch you up in it… but I see your point, it’s not 2 for 1 though, more like 1.5 for 1… which looks better… math wise… lol.

  66. sean says:
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    I have Tulowitski as a keeper and have him penciled in as my starting SS….is if worth it drafting a 2nd SS to supplement Tulo during his traditionally slow start? If so, what type of player (and in what round) do you recommend I look for?

    Lastly, I have Ian Stewart as a keeper as well. Do you think I can safely assume he will produce well enough to start as my 2B? Or should I also take a backup 2B?

  67. Rollie Fingered Her says:
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    Tulo’s 20 bagger was the fluke to end all flukes; he is an incredibly inept baserunner. I doubt he even gets the green light much this season; plenty of speed on that team with Fowler and CarGo. Tracy doesn’t seem like the type to risk needless injury.

    The power is still ridiculous for a SS, though. So are the runs and RBI’s if they keep him in the heart of that order. Just don’t expect 20 bags again. Hell, I wouldn’t even expect 10.

  68. Lance says:
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    I already have Gallardo so I hope I am the one that has him in a CY year.
    My main concern is Ian Stewart. I have 3 slots left in a 10 keeper auction league.
    Joey Votto $10
    Aaron Hill $6
    Ian Stewart $2
    Matt Cain $6

    My first plan was to go with Votto, Hill, Cain
    You love Stewart so much and I trust you so much :) I am considering moving someone else….. so who would you bump Hill or Cain?”

    Some advice I was given was to buy out Corey Hart (2 years left on the contract) who is a $4 keeper and keep all four of my options. But I do not know yet how much it would cost me. If the buy out is your option how much is too much to get all four under contract?

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Lance: I’d bump neither. Just redraft Stewart.

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