If good pitching beats good hitting most of the time, what does bad pitching do against good hitting? Or even bad hitting? Someone, somewhere (ok, in San Diego) will have to have a big day against Patrick Corbin. I think it’s more than one player and yes, even the bad hitters. I like my righty hitters against Corbin even in Petco. Patrick has been terrible since coming back from TJS. Last year he allowed 24 homers in 155 innings with a .286 BAA. This year he’s only allowed 1 homer but still a .303 BAA with 7 BB and only 7 K in 16 innings. Maybe he’ll get it back some day, but that day won’t be today. Manuel Margot at $2,800? Yes please. Hunter Renfroe at $2,900? He’s only got 1 K in 19 AB’s against lefties. I think K rates stabilize the quickest so I’m in there as well. Your usual suspects for the Padres…well suspect – Wil Myers at $3,800 – should also be considered. Outside that, most (ALL) of my picks are against bad pitching. Is there any other way? Once again I’ll do it my way. Ok, Frank’s way! Either way….no regerts this week.
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James Paxton, P: $9000 – Pax is pitching great and the A’s have a .199 BA with a .298 Slugging against lefties this year. Last year it wasn’t much better at .244/.396. Their K/B ratio is about 3/1 each year, too. If you don’t like these odds, you could always pay big $$$ for…
Noah Syndergaard, P: $11,200 – Syndergaard is great and the (still) lowly Phils just can’t hit him. Their BA against Synd is .183 with 30 K’s in just 26 innings.
Salvador Perez, C: $3,100 – Andrew Cashner ain’t good. The last two years he’s been even worse, giving up a .279 BAA with 38 homers in 316 innings. I’ve always liked Perez and he’s off to a hot start. I think he’s a true talent .280/25 guy. Catchers take a little longer to develop at the plate as they are more concerned about handling the pitching staff early in their career. Perez is just 26 but in his 7th year. Choose him early and often.
Victor Martinez , C: $2,600 – My favorite catching target. How can you not like a catcher eligible DH who plays every day. He’s off to a slow start but making solid contact with 40% line drive and 51% hard contact rates. His BABIP is .257. He will break out.
Joe Mauer, 1B: $2,600 – I can’t pass up Mauer Vs. Bauer. Trevor Bauer that is. Joe has hit Trevor to the tune of .357 BA, .679 SLG with one of his few career home runs in 28 AB’s. Mauer hits him well. Thank you for Wednesday’s rainout. The Twins get Bauer instead of Corey Kluber. Ha!
Jose Altuve, 2B: $4,200 – Altuve is a stud and loves him some Matt Shoemaker to the tune of .400/.750 with 2 homers in 20 AB’s. Shoemaker had a couple good months last year but he’s fairly hittable and off to a bad start, walking too many with four homers allowed to start the season. His stuff isn’t great especially if he’s not hitting his spots.
Chris Owings, SS: $3,000 – So if you like the Padres against Corbin, you gotta keep to the theme and go with righty hitters against Clayton Richard. Owings isn’t great, but I just have to pick me someone against Richard and I get tired picking all the best players. So let’s go cheap and see where it lands us. Although we could spend $$$ on…
Francisco Lindor, SS: $4,200 – Ervin Santana is pitching very well and he was a decent #3’ish starter at one time. But he’s striking out only 6 per 9 with a BABIP of .074. Yep, that’s not a typo, that’s a zero up front. Lindor is already getting Cooperstown talk. Geez! That said, he’s good and off to a great start. I just see him getting to Santana and Santana coming back to Earth…with a thud. With that said, I’ll take me some…
Jose Ramirez, 3B: $4,000 – Ok, so I’m going big here and at short, but Ramirez has also started out white hot, AND he’s hit .692/.923 against Santana in his short career. Take the over on 15 points. Wait! Is that enough for these $$$?
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
High chance of rain in Toronto. WAIT! Retractable roof! Still rain. Just shouldn’t effect the game. Maybe attendance.
The wind is blowing out to right in Minneapolis. I like my Mauer pick even more now. It will be cold, though.
A chance of rain in Cincinnati. Hopefully they get it in.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Noah Syndergaard Vs. Aaron Nola is a great duel, but I chose Syndergaard as my favorite pitcher. Alright, second choice. But I gotta keep with Syndergaard and the -180. That’s a lot of Washingtons, but I have to back up my own play.
Cesar Valdez is making his debut at 32……well almost. He did have 9 appearances with 2 starts way back in 2010. His fastball sat at 88 back then. Someone is welcome to look further at where it is now. But there’s a reason he hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2010. I’ll take James Paxton and the Mariners -165 against the rookie…..er career minor leaguer. I could look bad on this one on many different levels. But I’ll take the M’s.