If you need a refresher on how insane Alex Wood‘s season has been, I got you. Wood has a 2.38 ERA in 98 1/3 innings with a 10.07 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9, including a 2.52 FIP and 2.96 Deserved Run Average, or DRA. Those are straight up ace numbers. So while he’s coming off of two bad starts, this is no time to avoid him. Wood is a perfect buy-low, as his price is usually much higher than $9,600. The 26-year-old lefty is one of the game’s most dominant pitcher, and with the Dodgers lineup behind him, it’s no wonder he’s got a 12-1 record. Wood is a near-lock for a win, along with some quality innings and lots of strikeouts.
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Collin McHugh, SP: $8,200 – McHugh is making just his third start off of the disabled list on Thursday, but I like him a lot against Tampa Bay. In his last time out, McHugh went six innings with seven strikeouts, one walk, and just one earned run. He faces a Rays team that strikes out 25.0% of the time against righties, which the third-highest rate in all of baseball. This is a great opportunity for him to rack up some K’s.
Welington Castillo, C: $3,100 – Beef Mode has wrecked lefties all throughout his career, with a lifetime 125 wRC+ against southpaws. He’s facing Blake Snell, who has a 1.32 HR/9 and will be pitching in Camden Yards. So Castillo should homer.
Hanley Ramirez, 1B: $2,900 – Hanley is incredibly valuable with a price tag below $3,000 as he’s at home against Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzalez has a paltry 5.23 K/9 with a 4.93 FIP. A Red Sox stack in Fenway would be a terrific idea, but even Hanley as a standalone should be in most of your lineups. Hanley’s still got 17 homers (would be 18 if not for Austin Jackson) in only 389 plate appearances, making him a legit power threat.
Brian Dozier, 2B: $3,300 – Dozier lines up against one of the most homer-prone pitchers in baseball, A.J. Griffin, who has a ridiculous 2.77 HR/9. Even if he’s not having the best “real-life” season, Dozier’s provided plenty of value through his 17 homers and 10 steals, so at this price he’s tough to ignore.
Jedd Gyorko, 3B: $2,800 – Gyorko has been one of the coldest hitters in the league, but there’s no better way to bust a slump than a trip to Milwaukee. Miller Park is one of the best hitter’s environments in the league, and Matt Garza is no tough task. As the Cardinals cleanup hitter, Gyorko can rack up lots of RBIs in this matchup.
Marcus Semien, SS: $3,400 – Semien is crushing the ball right now, with an .899 OPS in the last 15 days, including three homers and two steals. He gets plenty of plate appearances batting second for the A’s, where he can both score runs and drive in RBIs. Semien has a career 123 wRC+ against lefties and faces Ty Blach, a southpaw with a pathetic 4.46 K/9.
Starling Marte, OF: $3,000 – Since returning from his suspension, Marte’s already got five steals, showing how valuable he can be out of the Pirates leadoff spot. Against Sal Romano, Pittsburgh should put up a lot of runs, and Marte can be involved in most of them.
Melky Cabrera, OF: $2,800 – The MelkMan’s red-hot entering Thursday, with a .917 OPS in the last 15 days. He’s the Royals new two-hole hitter, and is a no-brainer at this price against Yovani Gallardo if you need a punt-price outfielder.
Denard Span, OF: $2,900 – Even if it’s in the Giants lineup, Denard Span is still a leadoff hitter, so he will still get more plate appearances than anybody else on the team. Span is real cheap, and you could do worse.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a 58% chance of rain for NYY/CLE and 56% for TEX/MIN, but both look playable. Wind is blowing out at 18 MPH to right field in Minnesota, while it’s blowing in at 11 MPH for the SEA/KC matchup. OAK/SF also has an 11MPH wind blowing straight out to center.
Doing Lines in Vegas
The Yankees at +117 are intriguing with Sonny Gray on the mound, as I think their lineup can hold their own against Corey Kluber. I also like the Brewers at +119, as I think their offense can do some damage at home against Michael Wacha.