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Everything comes back to your league’s settings. If steals have a decent amount of weight and you can’t punt them, then you might have to deploy a guy like Dee Gordon. In theory, it’s nice to have a team filled with guys who have power and speed, but those guys are rarely undervalued. You don’t need me to tell you that Gordon won’t continue producing a .373/.421/.510 line. If you can sell high, then by all means do so. Although the reality is that he may have been a waiver wire guy and it’s tough to get anything of value from them in a trade this early in the season. He’ll still get steals when he gets on base, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see his OBP drop 100 points and his slugging drop 200 points going forward. That can still be useful, depending on how deep your league is and how heavily steals are weighted. Anyway, here are some other guys who I expect to produce different results than they have so far this year and what it means in OBP and OPS leagues:

I probably write about Billy Hamilton too much, but was asked to talk about him last week in the comments, so I couldn’t pass up another chance. I believe his first game, where he struck out in all four at bats, was blown out of proportion since it was against Adam Wainwright. The next few games he faced Michael Wacha twice, David Price, and Alex Cobb, which would be tough for any hitter. It seems like many people are already dismissing him, pointing to his Triple-A numbers as confirmation of his inability to hit. Last year, the Reds moved him to a new position, while converting him into a switch-hitter. Those two things could cause any hitter to struggle. Also, the fact that he’s now a switch-hitter may have contributed to his slow start. Regardless, I still believe what I wrote a few months ago, including that a .295 OBP is reasonable for him. He won’t help your OBP or OPS, but he will consolidate the blow to those stats by providing the same number of steals as two or three of your SAGNOFs, allowing you to roster higher OPS guys elsewhere. End of rant.

Yangervis Solarte has an impressive .373/.448/.569 line, which clearly looks unsustainable, but I think it’s too early to say whether he will collapse immediately. His minor league numbers don’t suggest that he’s an 800+ OPS guy, but he’s walking at a solid rate and not striking out, so he could continue to hit above his head for at least a few more weeks. He’s likely a guy that you just hold onto as long as he continues hitting.

Norichika Aoki is being dropped in some leagues due to a recent cold stretch, despite maintaining a .265/.333/.408 line on the year. He’s a very consistent player and is a safe bet to post a .350 OBP with the potential to improve upon his current slugging. He doesn’t have a lot of upside, but he also doesn’t have a lot of downside, which is increasingly valuable the deeper your league. Speaking of consistent players who are worth buying low right now…

Nick Swisher essentially has the same underlying statistics as last season, although he’s hit a couple more infield pop ups instead of line drives. This would be a cause for concern if it occurred over a much larger period or if he didn’t have such a consistent history. His .246/.341/.423 line from last year is likely his baseline going forward.

  1. MB says:
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    Man Yelich’s ISO is so low, so many groundballs. Worse in OPS right?

    • @MB: no worries it is ONLY April 19, Yelich will be fine, have patience!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @MB: He actually seems fine. An 800+ ops is pretty good.

  2. mcBlunty says:
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    been offered Martin Perez and Melky Cabrera for Hyun-jin Ryu, thoughts? I do need a bat but not a fan of Melky with out the juice

  3. schtickball says:
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    bj upton with .854 ops after getting some pointers from chipper. he has 5BB to 4K with 3 bags in that time hitting for .320 in that short amount of time. is it time to pick him up? need a replacement for calhoun

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @schtickball: Yeah it’s worth seeing if he can continue. Worst case, you can probably pick up somebody like Quentin in a couple weeks if Upton slumps.

  4. cubsin2020 says:
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    Do you think Harang has a decent ros?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @cubsin2020: He could be decent and worth rostering, but I don’t trust him to continue performing at his current level.

  5. Nomaspantalones says:
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    What do you think of me offering Eric young jr. And porcello for springer and Salazar (ops)?
    Is the offer insulting?
    I also have on my staff:
    Masterson
    Kluber
    Cishek
    Hernandez (Felix)
    Balfour
    Paxton
    Hamels
    Liriano
    Eovaldi
    Ventura
    Teheran
    Skaggs
    Minor
    Any help you can give me on how to form a proper trade would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Nomaspantalones: It’s not insulting if he needs speed. I think it’s worth proposing, especially since he might be down on Salazar at this point.

    • centerfield_ballhawk says:
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      @Nomaspantalones: You probably wouldn’t get Salazar for the pair… let alone both.

  6. cubsin2020 says:
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    Isn’t Dee just Billy in a different situation? If he can get on base he’s valuable if not he’s useless?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @cubsin2020: Yes, in that sense, but that would apply to a lot of players. Billy is faster than Dee and has a better history of OBP and walk rate in the minors.

  7. cubsin2020 says:
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    Are you at all concerned with Walkers impingement diagnosis? Can it be career threatening? Thank you Tom Jacks.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @cubsin2020: I’m in a wait and see mode on Walker. Anything with the shoulder isn’t a good sign, but it’s not necessarily serious if treated properly. Cross your fingers…

  8. Battle of the Sleepers says:
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    I grabbed Dee Gordon as a backup for Reyes–with Reyes due back, I’ve had several offers for him, most notable two are Grady Sizemore and better yet Jason Heyward. Take Heyward and run, or keep Dee as a backup for Reyes’s next DL?

    • Battle of the Sleepers says:
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      @Battle of the Sleepers: that’s Heyward for Gordon, not Reyes, btw

  9. puigleague choo says:
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    Why are you down on Dee, just out of curiosity? Do you have stats that are speaking to you or is it your gut?
    Granted, he’s probably playing well above his ability, but do you think his offseason transformation is bogus?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @puigleague choo: Mostly going off his historical stats. He could’ve improved, but not anywhere near this much

  10. WachaWacha says:
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    Thanks its great to find information that pertains to OBP leagues.

    If I could only own 3 of these players for your bench in a 10 team h2h league non keeper 5×5 cats with OBP who would you want?

    Springer, B Hamilton, D Gordon, J Gyorko, Messoraco, C Blackmon, Aoki

    If it helps these are my starters
    C C Santana
    1B Pujols
    2B Altuve
    SS E Cabrera
    3B Longooria
    OF Bautista
    OF Stanton
    OF Marte
    Util Longoria
    Util J Abreu
    Bn Myers
    Bn ?
    Bn ?
    Bn ?

    Thanks!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @WachaWacha: I’d go with Springer, Gyorko, and Aoki.

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