Is Evan Longoria a 2nd round pick? Grey, me, I seemed to think so when I wrote up my 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20. Or did Grey, me, I get swept away with Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie in the arms of Madonna circa 1999? Did I lose the ability to rank Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie lost the ability to make a kickass Steadicam shot? Am I good for nothing, except taking care of Rocco and their other kid? (Speaking of spoiled brats, for my birthday I got a pair of Heely’s — Free Your Sole! If any of youse care, I have not broken my neck. Yet. I really need to hire an 8-year-old to teach me how to use these things. Then again, that might’ve been how Pedroia’s brother got into trouble. But I digress.) Now I’m 2nd guessing my 2nd round pick of Evan Longoria and you’re running in to tell your Mom, “Grey’s second guessing his 2009 fantasy baseball top 20! Is the world no longer round?!” It’s still round, youngen. We just need to dig a little deeper on Longoria.
First, let me say what has me looking at Longoria a lot harder. The BBTF did a breakdown of the Rays with ZIPS projections. They have Longoria’s projections at 78/28/91/.264/6. Waaaaay back in January, I said Evan Longoria’s 2009 projections would be 85/30/110/.275/7. As you can see, my projections are more optimistic. When you, or at least when I, look at those other projections I begin to wonder if Aramis a round or two later is better value than Longoria. (If curious, I have Aramis’s projections at 105/30/115/.295 from the 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20 third basemen and ZIPS has Aramis at 84/27/100/.289/1)
Included in the BBTF charts is a player profile where it goes over the possibility of certain stats being reached by Longoria. There’s a 33% chance of Longoria hitting .275+ (only a 7% chance of him hitting .300+). There’s a 38% chance of him hitting 30+ HRs (actually an 8% chance of him hitting 40 HRs) and a 17% chance of 10+ steals. So what I’m taking away from those odds and projections is Longoria’s not going to hit .300, but he has some power to spare (and a bit of speed). Aramis has no speed, a bit less power and more average. Also, Longoria’s younger and rising while Aramis is a few years older and apparently plateauing. Longoria also has more risk than Aramis.
For fantasy purposes, I’ll take more home runs and steals over average every day of the week and twice on Muesday (that’s Monday after 5 and before noon on Tuesday). So I said Evan Longoria is a late 2nd rounder and I still agree. Phew, a restoration of F.I.G — Faith In Grey.