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Is Evan Longoria a 2nd round pick?  Grey, me, I seemed to think so when I wrote up my 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20. Or did Grey, me, I get swept away with Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie in the arms of Madonna circa 1999? Did I lose the ability to rank Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie lost the ability to make a kickass Steadicam shot? Am I good for nothing, except taking care of Rocco and their other kid? (Speaking of spoiled brats, for my birthday I got a pair of Heely’s — Free Your Sole!  If any of youse care, I have not broken my neck. Yet.  I really need to hire an 8-year-old to teach me how to use these things. Then again, that might’ve been how Pedroia’s brother got into trouble.  But I digress.) Now I’m 2nd guessing my 2nd round pick of Evan Longoria and you’re running in to tell your Mom, “Grey’s second guessing his 2009 fantasy baseball top 20!  Is the world no longer round?!”  It’s still round, youngen.  We just need to dig a little deeper on Longoria.

First, let me say what has me looking at Longoria a lot harder.  The BBTF did a breakdown of the Rays with ZIPS projections.  They have Longoria’s projections at 78/28/91/.264/6.  Waaaaay back in January, I said Evan Longoria’s 2009 projections would be 85/30/110/.275/7.  As you can see, my projections are more optimistic.  When you, or at least when I, look at those other projections I begin to wonder if Aramis a round or two later is better value than Longoria. (If curious, I have Aramis’s projections at 105/30/115/.295 from the 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20 third basemen and ZIPS has Aramis at 84/27/100/.289/1)

Included in the BBTF charts is a player profile where it goes over the possibility of certain stats being reached by Longoria.  There’s a 33% chance of Longoria hitting .275+ (only a 7% chance of him hitting .300+).  There’s a 38% chance of him hitting 30+ HRs (actually an 8% chance of him hitting 40 HRs) and a 17% chance of 10+ steals.  So what I’m taking away from those odds and projections is Longoria’s not going to hit .300, but he has some power to spare (and a bit of speed).  Aramis has no speed, a bit less power and more average.  Also, Longoria’s younger and rising while Aramis is a few years older and apparently plateauing.  Longoria also has more risk than Aramis.

For fantasy purposes, I’ll take more home runs and steals over average every day of the week and twice on Muesday (that’s Monday after 5 and before noon on Tuesday).  So I said Evan Longoria is a late 2nd rounder and I still agree.  Phew, a restoration of F.I.G — Faith In Grey.

  1. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    For a second there, I thought we would have to break up.

    I’m a big Aramis fan — he’s been a staple third round pick for Ye Olde Baron for many a season — but dude’s HRs have seriously tapered. He hasn’t tickled the underside of 30 HRs for two years and I doubt he starts again in ’09 at age 31. HRs are down across the board (steroids:cough:steroids) and A-Ram’s ten HR drop-off from his glory days seems pretty typical.

    Evan, however, will knock 35 HRs as sure as the sun will rise in the eastSo you get plus 10 HRs, minus 15 points of avg., and one round of difference: I think that price is right.

    HOWEVER, there is a decent chance someone in your league will break into a cold sweat and take Longoria in the first 15 picks. People get excited by the youngin’s. So plan accordingly.

  2. bpasinko says:
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    Longoria or his teammate BJ?

    A ton more good OFs than 3b, but I think I’d rather take BJ top 20 over Longoria.

  3. Christopher says:
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    I had the pleasure of wathcing both Longoria and David Price here in Montgomery. Longoria just looked like a major leaguer…that swing is a thing of beauty.
    I saw Price’s first game pitched in AA. His delivery is fluid and he was so very composed…

    Yeah Baron, I fully expect E-Lo to be gone in the first round of my 12-team H2H…which means there’ll be value left for me!!

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @bpasinko: BJ has more upside for fantasy, 20 HRs and 40 steals is a great thing to have, but because of his lack of power last year he should not be drafted before Longoria.

  5. Eric W says:
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    Ahh will never fall far enough to be on my teams (low to mid 20’s) he will get mounted like Paris Hilton at a……. well anywhere.

  6. big o says:
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    heely’s wheelys … for those times when you just feel like back-pedalling .

    no doubt you’ll have the last laugh , but for now , i’ll worry about filling my other roster spots .

    sam sneed , when asked his advice about putting , said ==> “miss ‘em quick” .

  7. Ian says:
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    This seems like a decent time to ask this question:

    BJ Upton or Matt Kemp? I don’t necessarily need the 10-15 extra SBs from Upton. I need the power numbers more, so I’m leaning towards Kemp. He’ll probably put up a better balance of numbers across the board if he’s hitting 3rd in front of (maybe) Manny. Agree?

  8. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    78/28/91/.264/6… Hmm… smells like an overrated Beltre. I’ll pass.

  9. Ashley says:
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    I offered Hamilton, Quentin, and a 9th for Kemp, Markakis, and his 6th rd.

    He countered with Rios, Markakis, and his 7th rd for Hamilton, Quentin, my 9th.

    I countered with Kemp, Markakis and his 7th.

    If he’ll only give me Rios instead of Kemp.. Should I pass? Rios is another one of those guys who seems to be all over the place. What do you think of him?

  10. bpasinko says:
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    @Grey: Even in the “draft who you a want because at worst you’ll end up with players you like” strategy?

    CHONE has upton 280/15/70 with 41 steals 92 runs

    Longoria .265/22/80 with 71 runs 5 steals
    With 550 or so ABs it would have him closer to 28 homers and 95 rbiish.

    Not that CHONE tells all but it seems like you take Longoria cause he’s more likely to repeat, but the numbers don’t really add up there. Upton last year is probably his baseline worst case scenario, and all the projection systems are judging his power output off a bad wrist.

    I doubt he touches the 30 hr he toyed with in 2007, but he could get 15 dingers. 15 /55 (if he leads off, not out of the question) is on par with 20/40 right? At least more likely than .275 35+ homers for Longoria in my opinion.

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eric W: Hehe

    @big o: Backpedaling — nice.

    @Ian: Kemp

    @Ashley: Rios is less than Kemp. Rios should go 20/20, but he should’ve went 20/20 last year. Pass if no Kemp.

    @bpasinko: 15/55 is too optimistic on steals. 20/40 is on par with a late 2nd round pick though, so Upton does have upside. Think Crawford all of those years people expected him to hit 20.

  12. sean says:
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    I’m not bullish on Longoria. I don’t want to draft a guy in the second round who might produce top-5 numbers or might produce 5th round numbers. I want a rock-solid producer. Aramis is exactly that in the third round. Put 100/25/100/.290 in the bank and move directly to go.

    I’ll take my gamble on the Davises and Vottos of the world 5-6 rounds later.

  13. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Ian: Something to remember about BJ (and I watched him closely last year as he went on a prodigious not-hitting-HRs streak for my team): He got benched in multiple games for not playing hard.

    To me, this is a red flag — enough to tip the balance to Kemp. Not that you should play hall monitor and punish BJ for his bad attitude (BJ’s BA, as it were) but it’s worrisome.

    Players who don’t play hard also sit out long periods with lingering “injuries”. They also get sulky and stop trying. You have to imagine Andruw Jones’s precipitous toppling-off-a-cliff had at least something to do with a terminal case of Not-Giving-A-Shizz Disease.

    @IowaCubs: Beltre was so underrated he’s now overrated. He had 77 ribbies last year. Not 97. Not 87. Spirit of 77. He stinks, like everyone thought he did back before everyone decided he was a great bargain.

    @sean: This is sound reasoning. But remember, Longo’s reasonably likely to get better, and Aramis is reasonably likely to be the same or worse. You win leagues by maximizing value, and you maximize value by getting guys who will be better next year than they were last year, even just a little. Lots of people were scared of taking Braun in the 2nd last year, but that was a good value.

  14. bpasinko says:
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    @Grey: That’s a good point, anyway I slice it in drafting Upton 2nd round I’m assuming improvement, which is obviously pretty dangerous early.

    I guess my only point is: Longoria is pretty much the same deal (assuming improvement), and I see it as more of a coin flip who’s better. Upton is an auto 40 steals, Longoria auto about 30 homers, but one may not hit even 10 homers and the other not even bat .270.

    Also, even though we expected Crawford to hit 20 homers and he failed wasn’t he late 1st round worthy regardless? Or was I a horrid drafter in 2004-5-6?

  15. bpasinko says:
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    Of course I comment about BJ before seeing someone plow him over with a real good under looked point. I guess I give up on this point….

  16. Ashley says:
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    Yeah he’s not parting ways with Kemp. So now it’s Quentin and my 8th (8th pick in the rd) for Markakis and his 7th (2nd pick in the rd).

    Hopefully that’s reasonable. Markakis seems like a consistent player, but is his power maxed at 20-25 homeruns?

  17. J. Price says:
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    Anybody seen this new website Cubicle GM (www.cubiclegm.com)? Looks like they just got started but have posts on the best fantasy baseball seasons of all-time and something about Barry Bonds signing with the Royals. Pretty decent bored-at-work reading.

  18. bpasinko says:
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    fangraphs mentioned it here

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/can-markakis-make-the-jump-to-30-hr-guy

    Dunno if it’s nono to link to another site or not, sorry if it is. But he’ll have to have an increase in his fb% to start hitting more out of the park. So far I wouldn’t count on anything more than 20-25 like you said.

    Markakis seems destined to be a better real life player with his ability to get on base and play a great rf, than he is in fantasy hitting in a bad lineup. The fact he doesn’t steal 20 bases consistently or have a good success rate doesn’t help either.

  19. EricB says:
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    I picked up Longoria mid-season last year. The CHONE projections are really not bullish on him this year. I’d consider him in the 3rd round, but not before. If I can’t get A-Rod or Wright early, I’m waiting a few rounds for 3B and stocking up on other positions in the meantime (OF, 1B come to mind).

  20. Frank Rizzo says:
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    I have lost interest some in Longoria myself. I’ve taken in a lot of mocks recently (10 teamers) where Longo always goes in the 2nd. Meanwhile Aramis and Youkillis go in the 3rd, with Chipper in the 4th.

    I just go finished with a Yahoo mock where I took Chipper in the 4th, and then got Zimmerman in the 10th. That’s ridiculous. Not only does that add a solid bat to DH with, it gives me the depth I need with Chipper and his injury issues, and it gives me trade potential. And what if Chipper stays healthy all year?

    In other words, I don’t really like the lack of value with Longoria.

    I’m starting to create my own draft plans including some of Grey’s wisdom and Rudy’s as well. I now think you get as many studs as possible in the beginning, then worry about filling positions later. And I like the way my team looks taking a SP or 2 in the first 10 rounds. I’ve had many mocks lately with Haren and Billingsley showing up on my roster and I’m good with that.

  21. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Grey: Thanks!

    @Frank Rizzo: That’s an excellent plan. Zimmerman crapped the bed for me last year, though, so I can’t get excited about him. Though everything is forgiven in round 10 and later, I always find.

    @EricB: All true. One thing to consider, though, is that he won’t be around in the 3rd round. Will not be. So don’t think, “I’ll draft him if he’s there in round 3.” Think, “Who will be my 3rd baseman?”

  22. Brian says:
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    Sortof off topic, but I have the #2 pick in my draft coming up. I know that Hanley is going to be gone. I’m really thinking about taking Wright over A Rod. A Rod has more power upside, but Wright makes up for that in avg. The other categories are basically a wash.

    I feel like I pretty much know what I’m getting with Wright. A Rod scares me. I’m afraid that if I draft him, his thin skin will make him crap his pants and disappoint. I’m afraid that if I don’t draft him, he’ll put up a 140-45-140 line similar to 2007.

    Thoughts?

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian: Arod is capable of 140/45/140 and Wright isn’t. Otherwise they are equal. They’re nearly a toss up, so you do what you do. I’d take Arod because he’s capable of bigger numbers and Wright seems capable of a 27/15 season.

  24. Steve says:
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    @Grey: You aren’t concerned that Scott Baio and Lance Bass have a pair?

  25. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Of Heelys. Check the website you linked to.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ha! I didn’t see that. I’m more concerned I’m going to roll into traffic and die.

  27. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Hmmmm. It’s a close-run thing, but I guess we’d all rather you stuck around.

  28. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yikes. What I meant to say was that it’s tough to say which is the more legitimate concern…

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Gotcha…. How many people are in tomorrow’s mock draft?

  30. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Eight at this hour. Still four spots left.

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: That is uplifting.

  32. sean says:
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    manny and the dodgers is done.. finally. 2@45

  33. Steve says:
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    @sean: You interested in the Razzball Readers mock tomorrow night?

  34. sean says:
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    @steve: what time? i’ve got a real draft @ 10EST

  35. Steve says:
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    @sean: 8.30 EST. Might be cutting it fine.

  36. sean says:
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    yeah, i’m gonna pass. i want to get my shizz together, crack and a beer, and relax before

  37. Steve says:
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    @sean: You shouldn’t do crack before you draft.

  38. sean says:
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    @grey: with all the injury talk for johan, i saw him slip into the 3rd round tonight in a mock. if this were to happen for real, is it a no-doubter?

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: Seems to be a similar situation to Pujols last year. I drafted him mid-2nd last year in one draft and he won the MVP. Johan’s good value in the 3rd round.

  40. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    if you roll into traffic and pull up along-side a prius , my money’s on you .

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