Ervin Santana is likely headed to the DL and we hate to be the ones to say, “I told you so,” but we did. We told you 20 risky pitchers to be careful of for 2009 fantasy baseball. Rudy said this about Ervin Santana, “Santana bounced back from a Homeschooled 2007 (1-10, 8.38 ERA on road) to have a career year in 2008. He’s maintained steady pitch counts the last 3 years but his growing over-reliance on his slider (21% in ‘06 to 33% in ‘08) and near-abandoning of the changeup (9.6% to 3.9%) make him a riskier than average proposition in 2009.” And that’s me quoting Rudy! If you’ve drafted Ervin already, Rudy put the kavorka on you. To reverse the hex, you need a buzzard’s wing, seven bottles of Tabasco, a beetle and a solid three other starters.
The Angels are being optimistic saying they don’t think Ervin Santana will miss a lot of the season. An arm injury in spring training is exactly what you don’t want from a starter. Me being optimistic says Ervin will have a similar fantasy impact to John Lackey of last year. Say 20 starts, decent peripherals. Then again, don’t be surprised if you hear similar things about John Lackey’s elbow. With this news, Ervin Santana moves to the top 40 starters and out of the top 100 overall.
In other fantasy news, A-Rod injury is requiring surgery after all. I removed him from the top 20 overall, where he was briefly at 23, and placed him 40th on the top 100 and updated his projections. He’s now a risky pick in the 4th round and I’d look elsewhere. A-Rod seems like a good guy to trade for in June when the owner who drafted him is falling behind in the standings and is fed up with waiting around.