Sometimes I overestimate when people will be drafted. November Grey wrote an Alcides Escobar Sleeper post thinking Elvis Andrus sleeperity (sleeperishness? sleeperitude?) was inherent. Then I took a looksie at what people are doing in their mock drafts. As I write this, Andrus is being drafted on average 180. Sure, 95% of those drafters are probably Matthew Berry and his Berrites, but what The Five Percenters? Have they lost their bean pies? If Andrus is being drafted on average at 180, then for every 160 there’s a 200 in there. That’s crazy talk. Let’s see what people are actually missing and why Andrus is a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.
Andrus isn’t a straight steals guy. He may not get to 10 homers in 2010, but he will some day. Am I being optimistic because he plays in Texas? Yes, but that is where he plays. A line of 10/50 from Andrus wouldn’t floor me. Um, at shortstop. That’s 2nd round numbers. He doesn’t strikeout at insane rates or really take many walks. That’s okay; he Ike Turners balls into the ground. For a speedster, we couldn’t ask for much more. Last year’s BABIP of .307 was probably a bit low for him. With his speed, I could see him having a .320+ BABIP. Essentially, that could mean a better batting average than his last year’s .267. Not by a huge margin, but by a bit. Conservatively, I’d put him down for 75/8/50/.270/37. Optimistically, 85/10/60/.280/50. Finally, if you see me rank Andrus at, say 145 and someone else put him at 195 — listen to me! — joking. The numbers don’t matter. You need to draft your own team. Don’t hesitate to take Andrus at 135 if you really need steals from your shortstop. It’s better you get the guy you need before your opponent does. As Vin Diesel said in The Pacifier, “Rule number one: never be too eager to rush your opponent.”