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Sometimes I overestimate when people will be drafted.  November Grey wrote an Alcides Escobar Sleeper post thinking Elvis Andrus sleeperity (sleeperishness? sleeperitude?) was inherent.  Then I took a looksie at what people are doing in their mock drafts.  As I write this, Andrus is being drafted on average 180.  Sure, 95% of those drafters are probably Matthew Berry and his Berrites, but what The Five Percenters?  Have they lost their bean pies?  If Andrus is being drafted on average at 180, then for every 160 there’s a 200 in there.  That’s crazy talk.  Let’s see what people are actually missing and why Andrus is a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.

Andrus isn’t a straight steals guy.  He may not get to 10 homers in 2010, but he will some day.  Am I being optimistic because he plays in Texas?  Yes, but that is where he plays.  A line of 10/50 from Andrus wouldn’t floor me.  Um, at shortstop.  That’s 2nd round numbers.  He doesn’t strikeout at insane rates or really take many walks.  That’s okay; he Ike Turners balls into the ground.  For a speedster, we couldn’t ask for much more.  Last year’s BABIP of .307 was probably a bit low for him.  With his speed, I could see him having a .320+ BABIP.  Essentially, that could mean a better batting average than his last year’s .267.  Not by a huge margin, but by a bit.  Conservatively, I’d put him down for 75/8/50/.270/37.  Optimistically, 85/10/60/.280/50.  Finally, if you see me rank Andrus at, say 145 and someone else put him at 195 — listen to me! — joking.  The numbers don’t matter.  You need to draft your own team.  Don’t hesitate to take Andrus at 135 if you really need steals from your shortstop.  It’s better you get the guy you need before your opponent does.  As Vin Diesel said in The Pacifier, “Rule number one: never be too eager to rush your opponent.”

59 Responses

  1. Tony says:
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    I think this probably answers my question from the earlier post without seeing your SS list.

    Where do you see Andrus slotted in that line up grey?

  2. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    A reference to The Pacifier… I’m not sure if I should be impressed or scared. I’m not sure what it is, but I definitely have butterflies. Andrus for Pres!

  3. Steve says:
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    Sleeperosity?

  4. cubbies299 says:
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    kinda unrelated, but do you trade Beckett for BJ Upton? I don’t have another keeper pitcher but round 2-3 are ripe with aces. Also, do you keep Rich Harden or are you expecting a divebomb?

  5. Xeno says:
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    Sleeperosity – I like.

    For every reasonable 160 there are 20 Berrite 181′s, which pretty much gives your 95% estimate.

  6. Jo says:
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    @Tony: Check out mlbdepthcharts.com, I discovered the site last season and it’s been really helpful. he lists line-ups for every mlb team and has daily updates for trades, etc..

  7. black love says:
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    @Grey, what do you think Brandon Webb is gonna do this year?

  8. Jo says:
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    @grey: What are your thoughts of Cameron Maybin this year? I think he’s getting that post-sleeper feeling…

  9. Ben says:
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    I think by April, Elvis Andrus and Brett Anderson will both be 10th round acquisitions. Jay Bruce is getting overhyped, and I’m worried Andrus will be the same.

  10. Mikey boy324 says:
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    I love Anderson this year he’s gonna be a beast..does any1 know anything about Shaun marcum on the blue jays he looked like he was turning into a good pitcher before he got hurt..

  11. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @cubbies299: Grey, has little faith in Harden. He would tell you to pass.

    “round 2-3 are ripe with aces” Grey not likelly to recommend a pitcher that early. If your team is LOADED with hitting, he MIGHT make an exception.

    (Just trying to fill in here since Grey said he may be away celebrating his B-day!)

  12. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @black love: This from Grey (same question asked a few days ago):

    “I don’t trust Webb to return, but as with any players, depends where he’s being drafted.”

  13. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Jo: Thanks for the reference. See Sizemore projected to bat in the 2 hole which fits nicely with Grey’s projections for him. (Will see if Damon lands and where he hits.)

  14. Steve Sax says:
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    Jersey Shore reference and Vin Diesel quote in the same day? My head hurts…

  15. brett says:
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    @Simply Fred: Latest news is that the Tigers denounced the rumour, which makes more sense to be honest. They have too many young outfielders in need of playing time (i just wish they’d make Guillen a permanent DH).

  16. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @brett: RE: Damon?

  17. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @brett: I see it now. They denied interest in Valverde too. Door not closed. Damon becoming cheaper and cheaper.

  18. brett says:
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    @Simply Fred: Touché. Door not closed, but the more i think about it, the more i want them to give one of their young guys a chance.

  19. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @brett: Not big on my radar. Just mentioned ’cause I saw the projection for Sizemore to bat second, then thought, “Hey, maybe Damon lands in that spot.” A fantasy mind fantasizing…

  20. Eddy says:
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    @brett: @Simply Fred:
    I told ya fellas, Damon pretty much stripped himself of any value as a 3rd OF with the trade to Detroit. I’d much rather have any of the Hunters, (Torii or Pence) instead of Damon anyday.

  21. Eddy says:
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    @Jo:
    I honestly wouldn’t put much faith in Maybin YET. I know he has all the tools and one day will almost surely be similiar to J-Upside, but for now he’s in the midst of the maturation process.

    My advice, draft him post-15th round (he’s actually going around the 18th-20th) and keep him on your squad. Perhaps he’ll start off fine and be a decent guy for steals and some pop. And if he starts horrndous and gets sent down like in 2009 then you didnt lose much to begin with.

    I’d actually take a Nolan Reimold (going around the 18th-19th) who Grey actually likes quite a lot. And if you can’t snag Reimold, then Coghlan (going around the same as Reimold) may be worth a shot. He has the leadoff spot secured and it looks like that .300 avg is here to stay. Not to mention that he has 15+ homer capability and 10+ steals when he plays his first full season this year.

  22. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Eddy@Jo: : I think Grey is pretty bleh on Coughlan. Yes, on Reimold, but doubt he falls that far.

    If you’re looking for pop at that spot, T. Snider a good option. For speed, Stubbs.

  23. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Simply Fred: You MIGHT catch Fowler (speed) dropping that far.

  24. Mark says:
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    I got him at 137. The Texas/shortstop/speed/Elvis thing is enough to sell me.

  25. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Mark: Who’s “him”?

  26. big o says:
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    @Simply Fred:
    not many match that description

  27. Black love says:
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    @simply fred, ah thanks dude, I missed that the first time around

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: 9th

    @Cheese: Ha!

    @Steve: I like it!

    @cubbies299: Dive bomb, I want Upton.

    @black love: Don’t trust him, and I’m not willing to risk a draft pick on him.

    @Ben: Could happen.

    @Mikey boy324: Eh, Marcum’s just coming back from TJ surgery, not worth the headache in the AL East.

    @Steve Sax: Ha!

  29. royce! says:
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    Happy birthday weekend Grey! It’s mine as well… my birthday was absolute shizz (a court appearance in front of a very aggravating appellate panel followed by consecutive all-in poker losses where my king high flushes lost to the same guy’s an ace high flushes) but the better half saved it by getting me an 80s Snoopy/Padres sweatshirt and a 1/4 season Padres ticket package.

    And to top it off, McDonald’s introduced the Mac Snack Wrap…. I’d better rush to put in my reservations for Valentine’s Day! (http://www1.mcdonalds.com/macsnackwrap/)

  30. royce! says:
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    Anyhow, I hope your birthday is more like the latter part of mine and less like the former.

  31. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: My birthday is coming up as well. This tuesday, actually. Happy Birthday to you, I hope you enjoy it.

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Thanks for the birthday wishes. Back at ya!

    @GopherDay: Thanks and happy birthday to you too!

  33. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: Apparently, Jeff Clement has some sort of opportunity to land the 1B job out of spring training. If that happens, and since he didn’t play at MLB level last year, only AAA, does he start the season with C eligibility?

  34. sean says:
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    @Simply Fred: If he hasn’t played any MLB games, it will all be decided by what your service provider selects his primary position. If he only plays 1B in ST, you may be stuck there. However, if the provider is lazy and doesn’t want to create a new player ID or revamp his old one, you might get lucky…

  35. sean says:
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    TRADE ALERT: Kouzmanoff shipped to the A’s for Scott Hairston.

    More likely now that Fox sees whatever ABs he’s gonna get in the OF. Also a strange trip for Hairston landing back in SD.

  36. AdamH says:
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    If your banking on Andrus’ steals @ SS late and you get beat to the punch, do you think Everth Cabrera or Alcides Escobar are decent consolation prizes?

  37. AdamH says:
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    Crap! Missed the Escobar sleeper post. You prefer Everth or Alcides?

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: Usually when one gets traded there’s a glimmer of hope. Two times now for Hairston and nothing.

    @AdamH: re: Everth…Alcides — Tomato-tomahto.

  39. mc serch says:
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    @Grey: Things that age well: a good cabernet or port , a 60′s era Corvette, an early Zeppelin, Dylan or Springsteen album, a standard pair of Levis, a good leather jacket, “On the Road,” “Goodfellas” and, oh yeah, Grey Albright! Happy B-day…and thanks for all you do!

  40. sean says:
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    @Grey: Think that this means Chase Headley will be back at his natural 3B?

  41. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    Now that Adrian Gonzalez lost his only real “protection” in SD, does that drop his value considerably lower, say behind Mourneau and Youkilis?

  42. Dan says:
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    Andrus certainly has value this year in trad roto, but may have even more value in a keeper league. Sophisticated eagues that factor in defense may want to take note of him, as well (especially keeper leagues).

    Speaking of which, anyone out there want to try a Scoresheet league (sim games using current stats)? I’m starting a new AL keeper and have another spot to fill. The league has some great owners, already.

    Send an email, if interested: dantroy@hotmail.com

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: I do believe he will be.

    @Eddy: Kouz wasn’t his protection by the end of the year last year anyway.

  44. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    And don’t you think it’s more than a coincidence that that’s when his HR production took a dip?

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: A-Gonz is a 1st half player and Kouz has never been any sort of protection, Headley was hitting behind him because he was a better hitter last year.

  46. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @sean: Thanks, Sean. Not sure if he’s a great target anyway. But, if a C-eligible is lined up for an every day gig, he warrants being on the watch list. Will check the sites to see how they place him.

  47. Tony says:
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    elvis just went 1st pick in the 12th round of a mock i’m in….

  48. Tony says:
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    i also had the opportunity to take to huge 1B. Tulo went 7th overall to some guy so it pushed some sticks down. I took miggy and fielder back to back. In theory this is great, monster power, good averages, but when you draft on the turn and do this it really hampers you. I just felt like i was missing guys the entire rest of the draft. I wanted zimmerman or Youk then next. BOTH go right before me in the 3rd. Just a weird draft but taking to big 1B when i coulda went Fielder/wright or some combo i could see would make the rest of the draft easier.

  49. Jo says:
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    @Tony: was sandoval available in the 3rd for you? Id be just as happy with him ad I would youks… I do agree the strat is hard to pull off in a draft but if you do all your hw, it can turn into an unstopable team

  50. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Tony: If Wright bounces back, maybe. But, if you think he doesn’t and you just punt 3B, the dropoff isn’t nearly as much as if you punt 1B.

    If you find yourself losing guys the rest of the way, another option is to target one position (4-8?; wherever you start to lose guys) and accept the dropoff by cutting him out, moving all others up the ladder, and filling the one in later. That way you don’t lose a bunch of guys, only the one dropoff. That is working for me. I am maintaining much more value than having to accept the dropoff for 3 or 4 guys.

    BTW: I really appreciate your input. When you speak, I listen.

  51. Tony says:
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    @Simply Fred: haha. I hear ya. I just think taking two huge 1B sticks is tough to do because then you’re just grabbing to fill other spots all draft. Its great having two guys who would go 40/120 and give you SOLID averages, but sticking Longoria or Wright in there or even an OF’er would have been better I think. More balanced. I’m not real big on the theory of “you can trade them later” because in theory thats nice, but working something out is a whole different topic.

  52. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Tony: BTW: I have Bruce targeted highly based much on your belief in him!

  53. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Tony: Don’t feel at all like I am “just grabbing to fill other spots”. Have targeted SS and 2B (if Utley not available) as late draft picks. Still have plenty of room to get the players I want at the round I want.

    The “projection” table that I have been using has really helped me to get good projected rankings across the board. Helps me to see where I can pick up a cat with a specific late round pick, thus more free to get the heavy hitters at the top; also good pitching balance. Cust Kayin’

  54. GasTheObese says:
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    Where do you assume Andrus will hit in the order Mr. Grey?

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