See if you can guess who this is: After a move to a tougher league, he lowered his ERA by almost two full runs. His FIP was more than a half run lower than his overall ERA. His name is in the title of the post. If you guessed Edwin Jackson, you’re a quick-witted rapscallion. On the Diamondbacks, Jackson’s K/9 was 6.98. On the White Sox, his K/9 was 9.24. In 2009, he was solid on the Tigers. Coming up in the Dodgers’ system (read: NL West), he couldn’t get his act together. What’s up with the contrarian attitude towards pitching in the NL? I don’t have a clue, Professor Plum. If it’s any consolation, he wasn’t so great on the Rays either. Okay, enough of the history lesson, you’re the man now, dog. So what can we expect of Edwin Jackson in 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
In 704 minor league innings, his K/9 was 8.12. So far it’s only 6.69, but it’s gone up 1 strikeout per inning three years in a row. That’s a nice pattern. He’s only going to be 27 years old in 2011 and should take the final step in his development. Reaching an 8 K/9 in the majors would be that final step. Where his control was a mess in the minors and his early career in the majors, it’s starting to level off around three walks per nine innings. Assuming his luck reverts to the norm, a sub-4 ERA should be attainable. Think a line of 13-10/3.80/1.30/190. That adds up to a solid number three fantasy starter with number two upside who is being drafted like a number four.