That said, I’m not sure that I wouldn’t pass on Votto in the first round either. Dare I say he’s overrated for 2011. I mean, he can’t really improve on last year, can he? I try to go with more conservative plays early, and I’d like to see Votto put up more than one MVP-type season before I take him in the first round. I won leagues last year because I was able to get an up-and-comer like Votto in the fourth round and Carlos Gonzalez in the middle rounds.

Cmon now, don’t make it two MIAs in a row!

And Bill James and Fans projections are loving Drew Stubbs. I saw that during the last razzball mock and now that I see a sleeper post has been written I’m even more intrigued.

Btw, one last spot in the Razzball mock! It’s tomorrow at 7 pm EST. Password is schmohawk

if kinsler gets hurt again might young sneakily pick up 2B eligibility? wonder if he can still hack the MI.

if you look at braun’s career page it’s hard to tell the difference between him and votto, in terms of what it seems like he ought to be doing next year, except that braun just had 10 homers go missing last year for no visible reason and nobody likes it.

his strikeout rate’s been declining steadily at the same time, and walk rate increasing. you have to wonder if that’s connected.

also, tell me more about this fielder being exposed inside thing. his numbers were normal with the bases empty and horrible with runners in scoring position, so it’s strange. i’ve been eyeing him with the whole one-off-year / age 27 / contract year situation. but if there’s actually a flaw the pitchers found, that changes things.

I wouldn’t take him in the first round for two reasons:
(1) a precipitous decline in ISO each of the past 3 seasons (.310 -> .268 -> .231 -> .197). Typically, the best sluggers put up ISO between .275 and .300. That tells me that Braun is unlikely to return to the 35 HR level that made him a top-5 look; and
(2) lineup: Weeks (oft-injured); Fielder (exposed inside last year); Hart (inconsistent underperformer); and McGehee (blech).

Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t punt on Braun if he came to me in the second round, but I think selecting him in the first round, especially over more dependable power sources, is playing with fire. I see him settling in the mold of a Matt Holliday type than a threat for 40 HR, which he would need to approach to return first-round value…

@pjtres: Might come close to that, but he manages to sign deals then hit 12 homers so I’m still not a fan.

@Steve: Hehe

@mike from jersey: Back to 2009

also. yahoo people not buying volquez as a sleeper? EXCELLENT NEWS

@mike from jersey: i keep on wanting to think teixeira’s getting old and then looking at his actual age and realizing he’s not at all. he should be himself. unless someone can explain why last year was a real thing. i almost never draft him because of the slow starts, because there’s almost always some other 1B being drafted after him that i like better, and because i’m a red sox fan and the yankee fans get him sooner. but i doubt there’s anything fundamentally wrong with him.

do you think beltre can get to 90/25/100/.280 if thats true? or more?

I just wanted to find out your thoughts on Jay Bruce. He’s still only 23 and has tons of potential. Do you believe that he will be fully recovered from his wrist injury and put up a home run total in the 40 neighborhood?

It’s my first year in a dynasty league that has been going on for years, and we keep 6. I am thinking about trading for Bruce by trading a draft round improvement (not involving the first 4 rounds) since his owner will not be keeping him. I would be keeping him over Victorino or Haren (already keeping Lester and Verlander).

Some people are really high on Bruce, while others lost their belief in him. I am still a believer. Are you?